Ontario 2018 election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but I did not write 'voters' but 'card-carrying members'

[King of Kensington]

Canadian Conservatives aren't as "posh" as British Conservatives.  That being said, how much of the PC membership is working class? 

[DC Al Fine]

Canadian Conservatives aren't as "posh" as British Conservatives.  That being said, how much of the PC membership is working class? 

Can't speak for Ontario, but there is definitely a sizeable contingent in Nova Scotia.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ah but I did not write 'voters' but 'card-carrying members'

Oh, I'm quite aware.

Again, it's obvious from the results of the leadership race that there are working class PC members.  If we want to talk about the kinds of people who are members for more than one leadership cycle, then that's a different story.

[mileslunn]

In Canada there is a much weaker class system than Britain and more class mobility so income plays some role in how people vote, but not to the extent of Britain.  Never mind people with higher education tend to make more money and parties on the left tend to do better amongst educated voters than less educated.  For comparisons, a constituency like Copeland in the UK would be a safe Conservative one for the last 20 years not one that was safely Labour until recently and a shock when the Conservatives won it.  While a constituency like North West Durham would be Conservative and Bolsover a bellwether not solid Labour.  On the other hand one like Kensington, which was a shock when Labour won it would be a solid Liberal one, in many ways Kensington is comparable to Toronto-St. Paul's which is a very safe Liberal riding.  Likewise Cities of London and Westminster would be a safe Liberal not safe Tory.

The only province whose politics is somewhat comparable to British politics is BC politics with the BC Liberals being like the Conservatives and NDP like Labour.  Ontario politics are quite different.  In a lot of ways Doug Ford would appeal to the same types who were Obama-Trump voters in the US or Labour leave in the UK.

[King of Kensington]

BC = Canada's Australia

[mileslunn]

BC = Canada's Australia

True enough although Australian politics much like British and unlike Canadian tend to divide heavily along class lines.  I would also say Atlantic Canada is Canada's Germany in the sense that all parties are pretty much in the middle of the political spectrum much like until recently was the case in Germany.  Ontario is more like your solid blue state only the Democrats being split into two parties as note GOP frequently gets over 40% in solid blue states, they just don't win since they never get over 50% and the Ontario PCs haven't cracked the 50% mark in over 80 years.  In states like Massachusetts, New York, and California, GOP support ranges from low 30s to mid 40s and that is usually the general range for PC support in Ontario.  Difference is the left is under one banner which they are not in Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

If Ontario had BC parties, would Spadina-Fort York be the "False Creek" (condo-dominated, where the NDP can come close but not quite make it) and University-Rosedale be the "Point Grey" (enough academics and left-leaning professionals, students, renters etc. to put the NDP over the top over the mansion dwellers)?

(Of course imagining either Kathleen Wynne or Doug Ford leading a BC Liberal-type party is difficult).

[King of Kensington]

London's Kensington is more comparable to the old riding of Rosedale or Toronto Centre before Rosedale got lopped off. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/12/labour-kensington-general-election-london

[EPG]

I think a lot of observers in 2017 conflated the Kensington constituency with Blair-era Kensington and Chelsea, and so were surprised even though the North Kensington constituency had been strongly Labour.

[King of Kensington]

Christine Elliott to run in Newmarket-Aurora.

https://theribbon.net/2018/03/19/report-christine-elliott-to-run-in-newmarket-aurora/

That makes FAR more sense than St. Paul's.  If she ran there that would have made John Tory's DVW run look like a genius move. 

[DC Al Fine]

Christine Elliott to run in Newmarket-Aurora.

https://theribbon.net/2018/03/19/report-christine-elliott-to-run-in-newmarket-aurora/

That makes FAR more sense than St. Paul's.  If she ran there that would have made John Tory's DVW run look like a genius move. 

That was a pretty close race federally. Should be an easy pickup.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, I guess she *does* want to come back to politics.

[Poirot]

A guy who started making seats projections for Quebec politics has started to use his model for Ontario politics.

http://ontario.qc125.com/

At the moment it has 75 PC seats, 26 OLP, 23 ONDP.

[mileslunn]

Oh, I guess she *does* want to come back to politics.

Assuming Elliott runs in Newmarket-Aurora and Granic Allen in Cambridge, that means Doug Ford's riding will be the most at risk of not winning while Caroline Mulroney's the safest.  Interestingly enough the QC125 prediction shows BOTH Doug Ford and Kathleen Wynne losing their seats.  I think Doug Ford is personally popular enough in that part of Etobicoke even if a uniform swing would show him losing his seat he will hold it.  Likewise Don Valley West probably would have gone Tory under Elliott or Mulroney, but Ford is the wrong type to win there.  He will overperform in blue collar areas while underperform in the more affluent areas.  After all Don Valley West went massively for John Tory municipally.

[King of Kensington]

90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.

[mileslunn]

90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.

Agree I am skeptical although I find most models are bad at predicting this riding.  Asides from the 2015 federal election, it tends to go massively one way or another (Massively Liberal provincially in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2014 while federally in 2004, 2006, and 2008 while mostly conservative provincially in 1999 and federally in 2011).  I also think Doug Ford would probably have a stronger appeal here than say Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Eglinton-Lawrence as its more blue collar.  Of the 905 ridings I think Mississauga-Malton is probably the safest for the Liberals IMHO.

[Hatman 🍁]

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.

[DC Al Fine]

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.

You are so salty about Grenier

[Hatman 🍁]

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.

You are so salty about Grenier

ya think?

[Njall]

90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.

Agree I am skeptical although I find most models are bad at predicting this riding.  Asides from the 2015 federal election, it tends to go massively one way or another (Massively Liberal provincially in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2014 while federally in 2004, 2006, and 2008 while mostly conservative provincially in 1999 and federally in 2011).  I also think Doug Ford would probably have a stronger appeal here than say Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Eglinton-Lawrence as its more blue collar.  Of the 905 ridings I think Mississauga-Malton is probably the safest for the Liberals IMHO.

FWIW, while I can't find the exact riding numbers, the PCPO leadership results make Vaughn-Woodbridge look like a "satellite Ford Nation," riding, and according to some rough maps I threw together, it looks like Ford did around as well there as he did in ridings like York South-Weston.

[King of Kensington]

And actually voting Conservative has proven to be much less of a problem in Woodbridge in the past than in York South-Weston. 

[mileslunn]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

[Holmes]

A guy who started making seats projections for Quebec politics has started to use his model for Ontario politics.

http://ontario.qc125.com/

At the moment it has 75 PC seats, 26 OLP, 23 ONDP.

Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

[mileslunn]

A guy who started making seats projections for Quebec politics has started to use his model for Ontario politics.

http://ontario.qc125.com/

At the moment it has 75 PC seats, 26 OLP, 23 ONDP.

Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

Agreed, but also I don't buy the predictions that show Sault Ste. Marie going back to the Liberals, not happening.  Most likely the PCs will hold it, but if they do lose it, it will be to the NDP not Liberals.  In addition I don't think Ottawa South, Kingston & the Islands, or Guelph will be going Tory even if a uniform swing shows them winning those.  Nor do I buy the idea of the PCs getting 30% in Ottawa Centre or high 20s in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.  Generally speaking suburban ridings tend to see much bigger swings than your urban core which are solidly left wing and only swing massively between the NDP and Liberals (PCs always do badly in downtown Toronto) while in rural ridings PCs have a solid base that sticks with them through good and bad times, but rarely do they go much above 60% (It's more like the BC Interior as opposed to rural Prairie ridings where right wing parties frequently top the 70% or sometimes even 80% mark).  Still the predictions are good rough indications not exact for each riding.