Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

Brampton Centre? Really Mammo, glad your leaving council like Minnan-Wong. Brampton Centre just doesn't feel like a good fit for him; It has a growing South Asian community, over a quarter are South Asian. Brampton Centre or the old Springdale doesn't really have a PC/Con history, was won in 2011 under Harper, but was Liberal in 2008, and won back in 2015. Provincially has been Liberal since 2003. It does looks like somewhat of a swing riding, and if the NDP and OLP continue to poll about the same, PCs could sneak up the middle in a lot of swing ridings.

[Poirot]

I guess I got an answer on what people think of the validity of the model! I think it's math based and not an analysis riding by riding. (I don't think he has the knowledge of Ontario politics for that) 

[King of Kensington]

Brampton Centre? Really Mammo, glad your leaving council but like Minnan-Wong. Brampton Centre just doesn't feel like a good fit for him; It has a growing South Asian community, over a quarter are South Asian. Brampton Centre or the old Springdale doesn't really have a PC/Con history, was won in 2011 under Harper, but was Liberal in 2008, and won back in 2015. Provincially has been Liberal since 2003. It does looks like somewhat of a swing riding, and if the NDP and OLP continue to poll about the same, PCs could sneak up the middle in a lot of swing ridings.

The PCs actually came third in the polls that are contained in Brampton Centre, behind the NDP.  Jagmeet Singh represented about 40% of these polls.

[lilTommy]

Brampton Centre? Really Mammo, glad your leaving council but like Minnan-Wong. Brampton Centre just doesn't feel like a good fit for him; It has a growing South Asian community, over a quarter are South Asian. Brampton Centre or the old Springdale doesn't really have a PC/Con history, was won in 2011 under Harper, but was Liberal in 2008, and won back in 2015. Provincially has been Liberal since 2003. It does looks like somewhat of a swing riding, and if the NDP and OLP continue to poll about the same, PCs could sneak up the middle in a lot of swing ridings.

The PCs actually came third in the polls that are contained in Brampton Centre, behind the NDP.  Jagmeet Singh represented about 40% of these polls.

Yup, I'd place this as third highest target for the NDP in Brampton, probably all of Peel... After Brampton East and Brampton North. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

[lilTommy]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

Yup, but there is already a PC candidate nominated in the old York West riding, now called Humber River-Black Creek. Which even with redistribution this time around, I don't think the boundaries changed here only the name, odd.
The PC candidate probably did not want to step aside.

[Hatman 🍁]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

Yup, but there is already a PC candidate nominated in the old York West riding, now called Humber River-Black Creek. Which even with redistribution this time around, I don't think the boundaries changed here only the name, odd.
The PC candidate probably did not want to step aside.

I know, I'm just saying that the PCs have a good chance at winning the riding. It depends how loyal Fordnation is to the Ford brand.

(And yes, I'm aware of the new name, but I keep forgetting it, so I've just kept calling it York West).

[adma]

Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

Depends on the candidate, especially now that the FN polls have been hived away.  Remember that Timmins proper can be a bit wobbly in its NDP support.  And I know that the more common anti-NDP pattern hereabouts is Liberal; but in this election, who knows...

[King of Kensington]

My FB feed today is filled with people flipping out about "Ford's huge rally."

[mileslunn]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

Yup, but there is already a PC candidate nominated in the old York West riding, now called Humber River-Black Creek. Which even with redistribution this time around, I don't think the boundaries changed here only the name, odd.
The PC candidate probably did not want to step aside.

I know, I'm just saying that the PCs have a good chance at winning the riding. It depends how loyal Fordnation is to the Ford brand.

(And yes, I'm aware of the new name, but I keep forgetting it, so I've just kept calling it York West).

I will admit for Humber River-Black Creek anything from the PCs getting clobbered to winning a landslide seems plausible but assume it will fall somewhere in between.  In recent elections PCs struggle just to crack the 20% mark yet Doug Ford got over 60% in the last municipal election.  Otherwise will the PC label push many away who voted for Ford municipally but cannot stomach voting PC or will Doug Ford being leader bring over that 40% who voted for him municipally but never vote PC.  I am guessing the PCs will do much better than usual in that riding, but probably not what Ford got municipally as municipal and provincial politics are different so while leader matters party label and loyalty which you lack municipally does too.

[Pandaguineapig]

Since it's within range for the pc's and Wynne is so unpopular, what are the odds of Don Valley West changing hands?

[King of Kensington]

Since it's within range for the pc's and Wynne is so unpopular, what are the odds of Don Valley West changing hands?

Low.  DVW is the wealthiest riding in the province and Ford's populism doesn't appeal to a large number of "the elites and the establishment" that live there.

[DC Al Fine]

Since it's within range for the pc's and Wynne is so unpopular, what are the odds of Don Valley West changing hands?

Low.  DVW is the wealthiest riding in the province and Ford's populism doesn't appeal to a large number of "the elites and the establishment" that live there.

I could see an Elliott-led PC party picking it off had she won but now it's a bit like wondering if Trump can win NOVA because Clinton is doing so poorly.

[lilTommy]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

Yup, but there is already a PC candidate nominated in the old York West riding, now called Humber River-Black Creek. Which even with redistribution this time around, I don't think the boundaries changed here only the name, odd.
The PC candidate probably did not want to step aside.

I know, I'm just saying that the PCs have a good chance at winning the riding. It depends how loyal Fordnation is to the Ford brand.

(And yes, I'm aware of the new name, but I keep forgetting it, so I've just kept calling it York West).

I will admit for Humber River-Black Creek anything from the PCs getting clobbered to winning a landslide seems plausible but assume it will fall somewhere in between.  In recent elections PCs struggle just to crack the 20% mark yet Doug Ford got over 60% in the last municipal election.  Otherwise will the PC label push many away who voted for Ford municipally but cannot stomach voting PC or will Doug Ford being leader bring over that 40% who voted for him municipally but never vote PC.  I am guessing the PCs will do much better than usual in that riding, but probably not what Ford got municipally as municipal and provincial politics are different so while leader matters party label and loyalty which you lack municipally does too.

Humber River-Black Creek, and York South-Weston are both areas that should see the PC vote massively increase from their 10% and 11% showings in 2014; But with the NDP also pushing as the ant-Liberal vote in the city, where is this Liberal vote going to migrate to? The NDP was only 7% (about 2000 votes) from winning old York West; while they were 10% (about 3600 votes) shy in York South-Weston. If the NDP is polling higher in TO, and they are in most polls, these two are more likely to swing NDP even with an increase in the PC vote and decrease in Liberal vote. Ford brings huge positive name brand but also is now tied to the less favourable PC brand. While they poll very well outside TO, in the city its usually a three way race or tight two way.

In HRBC with the Liberal incumbent not running, I see this as an NDP/PC battle, If we lob off anything south of Sheppard, the NDP won the riding; its figuring out where the Ford vote will pull from. If the NDP can hold their chunk of votes in the Black Creek/Jane&Finch area and the Weston&Finch area, I could see them winning.  

YSW is a true three way fight; If the NDP can pull in 2014 or even better, 2011 votes (37% and 42%) they will win (winning the Weston area, and the southern neighbourhoods) The north west (the area that used to be in the old Lawrence riding) is very Liberal, might go PC though, this is the area I see most likely to swing PC (I canvassed this riding years ago, this area is older, was mainly Italian and Portuguese). As well as possibly Weston. If the NDP hold the south (south of Lawrence, west of Black Creek), they can win the riding.

[King of Kensington]

In terms of PC pickups in Toronto, I'd say the top of the list are Etobicoke North (loyalty to the Fords) and Scarborough-Agincourt (both Ford Nation enough and big-"C" Conservative enough, Chinese trending rightward and Doug businessman-populism having much appeal).  The new Don Valley North is probably next. 

And I guess Scarborough North, which Raymond Cho already sort of holds, so I'm not sure if that counts as a "pickup." 

[mileslunn]

In terms of winneability for PCs in Toronto, I would probably say something along these lines:

Likely wins:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough North
York Centre

Favourable chances

Scarborough-Agincourt
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence

Possible pick-ups but probably uphill battles

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley West
Don Valley East
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park

Real long shots

Scarborough Southwest
Humber River-Black Creek
York South Weston

Haven't got a living hope in hell of winning

Parkdale-High Park
Davenport
Fort York-Spadina
Toronto-St. Paul's
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
Beaches-East York

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't place York Centre in the top tier, and certainly not ahead of Agincourt.  It's certainly possible for Ford to win there but it's not a slam dunk.

Ford underperforms among Jews, though admittedly not as much among Russian Jews (who are very PC anyway).  With Monte Kwinter leaving I don't see his (still sizeable but admittedly dwindling) constituency of Jewish voters bolting to Doug Ford en masse.

However it is possible that the PCs make up an underperformance among Jews with a stronger performance among other ethnicities, such as Italians and Filipinos.  Ford did very well in the Italian areas of the riding municipally.

Perhaps you're reading too much from the federal result?  Israel is not on the ballot provincially and if anything Kathleen Wynne has a stronger "pro-Israel" record than Ford (who may say platitudes about being pro-Israel but hasn't really done anything). 

[DC Al Fine]

What's Wynne's pro-Israel record?

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly it was York Centre and not Eglinton-Lawrence that Joe Oliver tried (unsuccessfully) to run for the PC nomination.  Both ridings are about 20-25% Jewish.

I'm guessing it was because he predicted (correctly) that Kwinter was going to retire and an open seat would be easier to win than going against Mike Colle?

Or maybe YC Jews are more right-leaning than Eg-Law Jews.

[toaster]

Yup, I'd place this as third highest target for the NDP in Brampton, probably all of Peel... After Brampton East and Brampton North. 

Brampton East - Jagmeet's brother is running, but I do believe Brampton Centre is next on their list in all of Peel.  

[King of Kensington]

What's Wynne's pro-Israel record?

Increased trade relations with Israel, speaking out strongly against BDS.  CIJA also held a dinner honoring Kathleen Wynne a few years ago.

This isn't to say that she's going to win Jewish votes for being pro-Israel.  I suspect it's a non-issue in a provincial election.  

[King of Kensington]

Whatever Doug Ford's personal views on Israel may be, he's more known in the Jewish community for telling a Jewish audience that "my doctor is Jewish, my lawyer is Jewish, my accountant is Jewish" and after being accused of stereotyping, lied about having a "Jewish wife."

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/10/06/doug_ford_booed_for_reference_to_jewish_lawyer_account_dentist.html

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/10/07/doubt_cast_on_doug_fords_claim_of_jewish_wife.html

[mileslunn]

Interestingly it was York Centre and not Eglinton-Lawrence that Joe Oliver tried (unsuccessfully) to run for the PC nomination.  Both ridings are about 20-25% Jewish.

I'm guessing it was because he predicted (correctly) that Kwinter was going to retire and an open seat would be easier to win than going against Mike Colle?

Or maybe YC Jews are more right-leaning than Eg-Law Jews.

York Centre was also their best showing in the 416 in the 2011 provincial and second or third best in 2014.  True federal and provincial are different but unless Ford does something really stupid whatever share of the popular vote Harper got in 2015, the PCs should get at least that.  It's more a question of how much higher they will go and in ones like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre probably only a few points whereas somewhere like Etobicoke North it will probably be many.  In those two the Tories almost won in the 2015 election and the NDP will probably do a bit better so if Ford can just match or narrowly beat what Harper got in 2015, he will take those.

I also think Monte Kwinter not running too makes the seat more vulnerable than it would have had he run.  Another example is St. Catherines with long time MPP Jim Bradley.  If he weren't running, that would be pretty much a sure PC pick up whereas with him the Liberals at least have a shot.

[mileslunn]

Yup, I'd place this as third highest target for the NDP in Brampton, probably all of Peel... After Brampton East and Brampton North. 

Brampton East - Jagmeet's brother is running, but I do believe Brampton Centre is next on their list in all of Peel.  

I would say Brampton Centre followed by Brampton North are their best hopes there but I will admit with the Sikh community their swings don't always follow the overall trends.  Anyone know if Ford is popular amongst Sikhs or he is a liability with them?  Also Brampton Centre will have Mammoliti as the PC candidate so do others think he will be a liability or non-factor?

[King of Kensington]

I also think Monte Kwinter not running too makes the seat more vulnerable than it would have had he run.  Another example is St. Catherines with long time MPP Jim Bradley.  If he weren't running, that would be pretty much a sure PC pick up whereas with him the Liberals at least have a shot.

Yes, Kwinter retiring does "free up" some votes.  But making the jump to Doug Ford will likely prove more difficult than a Christine Elliott-led PC Party would have for Kwinter's Jewish voters.

Again not impossible for York Centre to go PC at all, but I don't think it's top of the list either.

BTW the PC vote in York Centre was behind Scarborough-Agincourt, Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Willowdale and two Etobicoke seats in 2014.