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December 13, 2018, 04:02:26 pm
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 95406 times)
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« Reply #50 on: March 08, 2018, 09:56:53 am »

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

Id be rather surprised if Browns support doesnt leak to Mulroney, she seems to be that brand of politician and the most likely to play the red tory card.

That would assume that Patrick Brown's support is "Red Tory", which it is not. And also assumes that Caroline Mulroney is a Red Tory, which she is not.
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« Reply #51 on: March 09, 2018, 01:27:04 pm »

Well, very few politicians can be described as "Red Tories" in this polarized climate, but there certainly is a "Red Tory" vote in Ontario, especially with the Liberals moving to the left, it leaves a good opportunity for the Tories to win this group over, and is probably why Patrick Brown moved the party to the centre. This is why Christine Elliot would be the best choice for the PCs (I mean, tbf it's not hard to be better than the other three candidates, really), even though she will likely break with the "People's Guarantee".
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« Reply #52 on: March 09, 2018, 04:44:11 pm »

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

Probably a junk poll, but I'll take it!

Also yeah, uniform swing models aren't going to work with huge swings like this.
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« Reply #53 on: March 10, 2018, 03:32:49 pm »

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Do they actually have a shot at making some noise in Northern Ontario? (Say >10% in any riding.) Who would they steal votes from?

No, of course not. Probably just a small sample size, and a couple of people picking 'other' was weighted up significantly.
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« Reply #54 on: March 10, 2018, 04:17:59 pm »

This is a total shit show.
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« Reply #55 on: March 10, 2018, 05:26:23 pm »

This is the best possible outcome for the NDP, yes.

Liberals on social media are panicking though suggesting the only way to stop Ford is to vote Liberal.
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« Reply #56 on: March 10, 2018, 06:36:27 pm »

Anyone have specific results?

Results won't be released today after all.

Does the "Trillium" dude  have a chance of reelection?

No.
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« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2018, 11:34:57 am »

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« Reply #58 on: March 12, 2018, 10:36:05 am »

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.
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« Reply #59 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:48 pm »

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.

Unless they all decide to STOP FORD... which sadly is a very real possibility.

If the NDP is still in second place at the beginning of the campaign, and run a decent campaign, then they will vote NDP. It will be like the 2011 federal election.

Those voters aren't following the polls and aren't paying attention yet. They still think voting Liberal is the only way to stop the PCs.
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« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2018, 04:38:52 pm »

Dumb question.

I have an Excel file with the 3rd ballot results by electoral district.  Is there a way to upload it to the Gallery, or does that only accept images?

Anyone who wants a copy can send me a private message.

Only images, I think.

The third ballot results are floating around the internet, so I've already seen them, but I would be curious to see the first ballot results if anyone has them.
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« Reply #61 on: March 12, 2018, 04:45:37 pm »

Nevermind, here they are: https://www.ontariopc.ca/riding_by_riding_results
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« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2018, 07:51:33 am »

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.
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« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2018, 12:21:43 pm »

The NDP would only win Kingston if they won the election. It's one of those seats that stayed Liberal during the 2011 wave despite the lack of an incumbent.
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« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2018, 03:27:41 pm »

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.

Brampton has a large Sikh community and often they tend to go whichever way the community leaders do.  I will admit I've never fully understood the dynamics of Sikh politics other than compared to most immigrant groups they are very active and you win their support you can win big.

She won Brampton South, more Sikhs live in Brampton East, which Elliott won and Mulroney only won 16%.
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« Reply #65 on: March 14, 2018, 10:37:08 am »

Obviously Forum's seat model is a bit off. With those 416 numbers, York West should easily go to the PCs, it's deep in the heart of Fordnation.
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« Reply #66 on: March 14, 2018, 10:55:22 am »

Hmm, I should probably develop a model using the 2014 mayoral results.
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« Reply #67 on: March 14, 2018, 11:10:11 am »

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.
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« Reply #68 on: March 15, 2018, 04:56:35 pm »

Oh good, we have a pile on of foreign posters who think there is a parallel between the far right of their nation states and the unique brand of right wing populism that is "Fordnation". It's not about nationalism!

It was those same minorities that put Rob Ford into office the first time, and backed his brother last election. Do you think they'd rather vote for a lying, corrupt lesbian? And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 
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« Reply #69 on: March 16, 2018, 08:43:36 am »

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

It is unfortunate to see Al embarrass himself here. Sounds like he stopped following Ontario politics in the 1990s. It is obvious from the riding results of the leadership race that there are many blue collar PC members, and they were key to electing Doug Ford. 
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« Reply #70 on: March 16, 2018, 03:02:16 pm »

Ah but I did not write 'voters' but 'card-carrying members' Smiley

Oh, I'm quite aware.

Again, it's obvious from the results of the leadership race that there are working class PC members.  If we want to talk about the kinds of people who are members for more than one leadership cycle, then that's a different story.
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« Reply #71 on: March 19, 2018, 06:14:20 pm »

Oh, I guess she *does* want to come back to politics.
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« Reply #72 on: March 20, 2018, 08:49:48 am »

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.
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« Reply #73 on: March 20, 2018, 10:03:50 am »

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.

You are so salty about Grenier Smiley

ya think? Wink
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« Reply #74 on: March 21, 2018, 06:12:49 am »

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.
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