Ontario 2018 election

[Holmes]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

I had a look. The jeff guy said Doug Ford seals Timmins for the PCs. Lol.

[mileslunn]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

Electionprediction.org makes predictions based on a combination of general trends while also looking at the comments. Quality not quantity is what they use so nonsensical posts get ignored in their predictions. On the website they explain how they make them.

[the506]

You've always had to wade through a lot of filth on the EPP to get to the good stuff.

My favourite was the guy in 2015 who said vote swapping would make a difference in half the ridings in the country.

[DC Al Fine]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

Well, not to mention turnout was much higher in the Toronto election than the provincial election (believe it or not!), so a lot of that Ford nation support is actually from non-voters.

What visible minorities are most attracted to/ turned off Ford Nation?

I'd guess Blacks are the most attracted, followed by East Asians, Hispanics and South Asians the least. But all more so than White Torontonians. Hence why the comparisons with right wing populism in any other country has to stop.

The best comparison I can make for the Ford's is that they finally cracked the "minorities who should be voting for conservative parties" code that the Bush era GOP and so many other right wing parties have tried.

[DC Al Fine]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

Electionprediction.org makes predictions based on a combination of general trends while also looking at the comments. Quality not quantity is what they use so nonsensical posts get ignored in their predictions. On the website they explain how they make them.

The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

[136or142]

Singh's brother is running in Brampton East.

He's only the second lawyer running for the NDP and the first in a slightly winnable riding.

[King of Kensington]

I can't tell if NPP is a genuine idiot or a troll, but his attempt to argue that PCs are going to win in every riding which includes territory where the PCs won in 1995 is pretty hilarious.

University-Rosedale:  Everybody wrote off Al Leach in '95.

Parkdale-High Park:  All these disaffected Liberals are going to bolt to the Tories because of Kathleen Wynne's shift to the left...vote-splitting often benefits the Tories, look at Darwin Shea in '95.

St. Paul's:  Hoskins quit because he knew he wouldn't be re-elected...Tories could run a yellow dog and win.

[adma]

The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

Well, re such caution, EPP's never been based upon *mathematical* projection based upon current/running polls--it's always been more a combo of moderator's gut + contributors "having their say".  (Which, given how more supposedly "scientific" prediction/projection sites have faltered over the years, might be just as well.)

[cp]

The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

Well, re such caution, EPP's never been based upon *mathematical* projection based upon current/running polls--it's always been more a combo of moderator's gut + contributors "having their say". (Which, given how more supposedly "scientific" prediction/projection sites have faltered over the years, might be just as well.)

That's a fair point, though it's belied by the sheer inaccuracy of the aggregate predictions EPP generates: a BC Liberal majority in 2017; solid UK Tory majority in 2017; federal Liberal minority in 2015; Ontario Liberal minority in 2014; BC NDP majority in 2013; Canadian Tory minority in 2011. At least some of the scientific models called each of those races accurately.

As commendable as it may be to take such a granular approach, if the sum total fails to accurately predict the most meaningful consequences of an election, it's not really worth much. Especially when they boast about being "90.8%" or "90.9%" "accurate."

[mileslunn]

First post budget poll out and good news for Liberals while bad for PCs.

PC's 36 percent
Libs 29 percent
NDP 26 percent

Interestingly enough only 24 percent liked the budget while 44 percent did not so it could be more the Ford effect. Quito Maggi who is CEO of mainstreet tweeted his polls have shown tightening too but over anti-Ford voters going Liberal not budget. I've found Forum tends to underestimate Liberals and overestimate PC's mind you they also are good at picking up trends but tend to exaggerate them. The thing that really jumped out is the biggest shift was amongst seniors who were leaning heavily PC before but generally don't like Ford. Next week when more polls come out we will probably get a better idea.

I still think with Wynne's low approval ratings her winning the most seats is unlikely but could stay on as premier if Ford only gets a minority and she gangs up with Howarth to keep him out.

[136or142]

First post budget poll out and good news for Liberals while bad for PCs.

PC's 36 percent
Libs 29 percent
NDP 26 percent

Interestingly enough only 24 percent liked the budget while 44 percent did not so it could be more the Ford effect. Quito Maggi who is CEO of mainstreet tweeted his polls have shown tightening too but over anti-Ford voters going Liberal not budget. I've found Forum tends to underestimate Liberals and overestimate PC's mind you they also are good at picking up trends but tend to exaggerate them. The thing that really jumped out is the biggest shift was amongst seniors who were leaning heavily PC before but generally don't like Ford. Next week when more polls come out we will probably get a better idea.

I still think with Wynne's low approval ratings her winning the most seats is unlikely but could stay on as premier if Ford only gets a minority and she gangs up with Howarth to keep him out.

We'll obviously find out if this poll is just a blip or not or the dreaded '1 out of 20' but if it is accurate, I think the most important thing is that once these voters are taken from automatically supporting the P.Cs, they might be up for grabs even if they desert the Liberals.

There could be an opportunity here for the NDP.  This could be the first genuine three way election in Canada since ?

[adma]

The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

Well, re such caution, EPP's never been based upon *mathematical* projection based upon current/running polls--it's always been more a combo of moderator's gut + contributors "having their say". (Which, given how more supposedly "scientific" prediction/projection sites have faltered over the years, might be just as well.)

That's a fair point, though it's belied by the sheer inaccuracy of the aggregate predictions EPP generates: a BC Liberal majority in 2017; solid UK Tory majority in 2017; federal Liberal minority in 2015; Ontario Liberal minority in 2014; BC NDP majority in 2013; Canadian Tory minority in 2011. At least some of the scientific models called each of those races accurately.

As commendable as it may be to take such a granular approach, if the sum total fails to accurately predict the most meaningful consequences of an election, it's not really worth much. Especially when they boast about being "90.8%" or "90.9%" "accurate."

Which is why, in the end, EPP is an artifact of a pre-Nathan Silver era, when it really was more about social media than strict science--it's like, whatever the accuracy of the predictions, it's "fun to read" (and even enlightening, if sometimes in spite of itself); and that's what matters in the end.  (By comparison, the social media relative to more "scientific" sites tends to be erratically turgid letters-to-the-editor/comments-page stuff.  Which is why Nathan Silver and Éric Grenier tend to be the deliberate stars of their respective shows far more than Milton Chan is.)

[adma]

There could be an opportunity here for the NDP.  This could be the first genuine three way election in Canada since ?

Quebec 2007 and 2012.  (2012 had lower winning share; but also lower "third party" seat numbers.)

Also Nova Scotia's 1998 19-19-14 seat split.

[mileslunn]

First post budget poll out and good news for Liberals while bad for PCs.

PC's 36 percent
Libs 29 percent
NDP 26 percent

Interestingly enough only 24 percent liked the budget while 44 percent did not so it could be more the Ford effect. Quito Maggi who is CEO of mainstreet tweeted his polls have shown tightening too but over anti-Ford voters going Liberal not budget. I've found Forum tends to underestimate Liberals and overestimate PC's mind you they also are good at picking up trends but tend to exaggerate them. The thing that really jumped out is the biggest shift was amongst seniors who were leaning heavily PC before but generally don't like Ford. Next week when more polls come out we will probably get a better idea.

I still think with Wynne's low approval ratings her winning the most seats is unlikely but could stay on as premier if Ford only gets a minority and she gangs up with Howarth to keep him out.

We'll obviously find out if this poll is just a blip or not or the dreaded '1 out of 20' but if it is accurate, I think the most important thing is that once these voters are taken from automatically supporting the P.Cs, they might be up for grabs even if they desert the Liberals.

There could be an opportunity here for the NDP.  This could be the first genuine three way election in Canada since ?

Much like it was federally I doubt this will last into election. As per past three ways, the closest I can think of is Quebec 2007. Nova Scotia 2003 had a similar spread of the three parties while Quebec 2012 was one vote wise but two way seat wise as CAQ was only five points back in votes but didn't do well in terms of seats.

[136or142]

Thanks for the answer on the last three way elections in Canada.

[adma]

Ontariowise, the closest we've come in recent times is the 1975 Davis Tory minority election.  (Though the 1990 NDP majority election had by far the most *individual* three-ways per riding--not unlike how Alberta '15 played out outside of Edmonton)

[136or142]

Barely over two months from the election and the NDP still has nominated candidates in only about half the ridings (this includes the 16 incumbents running for reelection.)  If the NDP don't do well in this election, Andrea Horwath has a lot to answer for.

[toaster]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Barely over two months from the election and the NDP still has nominated candidates in only about half the ridings (this includes the 16 incumbents running for reelection.)  If the NDP don't do well in this election, Andrea Horwath has a lot to answer for.

The NDP always takes forever nominating candidates. I wouldn't worry (too much) about it.

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

If the Greens and NDP didn't make a formal coalition in BC, then the Ontario NDP and Liberals certainly would. It's time we remove that word from our vocabulary. Neither party wants to turn into the Lib Dems.

[adma]

I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections,

57 PC, 36 Lib, 31 NDP.

[136or142]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

[DC Al Fine]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

Agreed. Horwarth would have to be a political imbecile to back such a government. Far better to defeat a Ford minority with both Liberals and Tories discredited. Barring a big win in 2018, that seems like the best scenario for the NDP.

As for the Liberals, they have to be wary of letting the NDP steal their progressive thunder. Maybe they give an NDP government a free pass while they pick a new leader and negotiate on a case by case basis after that similar to the 04-11 NDP, but nothing more than that.

[adma]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

But even if that's an ideal-case scenario, what if (as one would casually think is more likely) it's the Liberals in the pole minority-coalition position?  Wouldn't that call for Wynne to remain in power by forced necessity, whether you feel she or her party require a "time out" or not?  Or do you seriously think the NDP (or the Wynne Liberals, for that matter) would rather prop up the Ford Tories?  The *Ford* Tories, remember.

[136or142]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

But even if that's an ideal-case scenario, what if (as one would casually think is more likely) it's the Liberals in the pole minority-coalition position?  Wouldn't that call for Wynne to remain in power by forced necessity, whether you feel she or her party require a "time out" or not?  Or do you seriously think the NDP (or the Wynne Liberals, for that matter) would rather prop up the Ford Tories?  The *Ford* Tories, remember.

If that's the case, I recommend burning down Ontario and starting over again.

[mileslunn]

Or perhaps while not thought of a lot if the PCs only win a minority, the Liberals could agree to let them govern provided they choose a different leader, although that is probably stretching it a little too much.  I could only see this happening if the Liberals and NDP do gang up and then caucus feeling they could break this with a different leader forces Ford out and once the PCs get a new leader the agreement falls apart.  But even that seems unlikely.  Had the PCs not been so stupid and chosen Elliott instead of Ford this would probably be a non-issue as she is not nearly as divisive as he is.