Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

This is telling a lot about the current state of Ontario PC than Dog Ford is better than 2 of the other candidates.

True enough.  It really seems at times like the PCs enjoy losing.  If they were smart the party would have found a non-polarizing person to replace Brown and gone with them instead of this gong show.  They up until now (I don't know what the next batch of polls will say) had a pretty strong lead in the polls so if handled right could still win, but seem to be doing everything to lose.  I think if Elliott or Mulroney comes out victorious they still have a good shot at winning, but any of the other three and we are likely looking at a minority government of some type.  Wynne is too unpopular to win a majority but could hold a minority.  NDP majority I guess is possible but the type of swing needed would be pretty unusual mind you Ontario now does have some eerily similar things to Alberta 2015, a very unpopular government (Libs in Ontario, PCs in Alberta), and an opposition in disarray (PCs in Ontario, Wildrose in Alberta) so maybe an NDP win is possible, although more likely a minority.

That being said a loss with only a minority might be good for each of the parties.  For PCs at least gives them slightly more time to sort out their mess and would also be a good kick in the head to get their act together as I think a lot are complacent assuming they've got the next election in the bag which they haven't.  For the Liberals it would allow them to dump Wynne and get someone else as Wynne is a huge anchor on the party.  And for the NDP if they don't move up to opposition, they could dump Howarth who while well liked, never seemed to really inspire people as a premier in waiting, at least not yet.

[mileslunn]

I don't see how Brown has a path to victory in the pc election, even if the sexual harassment allegations are fake he still doesn't have a large enough natural base in the party. The so-cons who helped him win in 2015 aren't going to back him again after he knifed them on the sex-ed curriculum

I think you underestimate the degree to which he has become something of a folk hero to many of these people (and other Trump type non social conservatives) by seemingly standing up to the #metoo movement and standing up to the 'elite insiders' in the P.C Party.

If the P.C Party doesn't block him from running, I'd predict his odds of winning at roughly 50/50.  Don't forget, he did get over 60% of the points in the 2015 leadership race.

The problem is he relied heavily on the right wing of the party to win last time and many felt he betrayed them.  By contrast the more centrist wing never really warmed up to him even he moved there.  I still think he can win, but he has to do well on the first ballot as I don't see him getting a lot of second choices.  In fact I believe the more candidates that enter the better for Christine Elliott as she is the least polarizing so as long as she doesn't fall off one of the ballots, she has the greatest ability to pick up second choices.  Sort of like Andrew Wilkinson in the BC Liberals, Ed Stelmach in Alberta PCs in 2006, Stephane Dion in 2006 for the federal Liberals, Andrew Scheer for the federal Conservatives, otherwise a compromise candidate who doesn't excite as many as say Mulroney or Ford do, but doesn't anger large swaths like those two do.

[mileslunn]

FWIW Forum has this poll out today.  I think PC support is a bit inflated mind you I find when parties are leaderless they often poll higher is people picture their ideal candidate as the leader and then once someone is chosen things come down to earth.  Nonetheless like other polls it does show the party does best with Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott while not as well but still ahead with Doug Ford and Patrick Brown.  In particular it appears the former two have greater appeal to female voters than the latter two.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2831/brown-enters-race-2018

[mileslunn]

http://angusreid.org/ontario-pc-elliott-mulroney-ford/

Angus-reid out with new poll

PC 50%
Lib 24%
NDP 22%

Shows Christine Elliott and to a lesser extent Mulroney would help but Ford appeals only to the base.  If the PC's lose, this would be blowing one of the biggest leads we've ever seen.  Only time I believe a party blew a similar lead was the NDP in BC in 2013.

[mileslunn]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

Uniform swings tend to only work with minor shifts not massive.  If those numbers are correct I suspect the OLP will probably get in the single digits in many rural ridings where they are pretty universally despised while hold up better in the urban ridings.  That being said Liberals falling to single digits is not impossible.  The level of anger at the Wynne government is eerily similar to what it was towards the NDP government in BC in 2001 and PC government in 1993.  In 1993 few envisioned the PC's only winning 2 seats.

[mileslunn]

Why on earth were Christine Elliott's people saying she'd run in St. Paul's?

If she were leader its possible they could win this albeit unlikely.  With Ford as leader not a chance.

[mileslunn]

While I could be wrong, it does seem the PC's have continued the long tradition of choosing the least electable leader and throwing away winneable elections.  I no longer live in Ontario, but would have voted for an Elliott led PC Party while would decline my ballot for a Ford led one.

[mileslunn]

Why did Mulroney do the best in Northern Ontario?

Small memberships in those ridings and only candidate to visit there.  Due to distance others didn't bother but with most funds raised she could afford to.

[mileslunn]

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.

Brampton has a large Sikh community and often they tend to go whichever way the community leaders do.  I will admit I've never fully understood the dynamics of Sikh politics other than compared to most immigrant groups they are very active and you win their support you can win big.

[mileslunn]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.

I heard Mammioliti might run for the PC's now that Ford is leader as he was a big Ford backer.

[mileslunn]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

When making Toronto riding projections how much does weight Ford's municipal vote vs. the past Conservative vote?

That is the tricky part.  Undoubtedly some from the Ford Nation who never voted PC before will vote for a Doug Ford led PC party, but others will find voting for the PCs a bridge too far.  Some PCs who dislike Doug Ford (probably most actually) will stick with the party as their desire to get rid of Wynne outweighs their misgivings with Ford but some will go elsewhere and considering no 416 riding is a safe PC one that could hurt him in some more educated upper middle class ones like Don Valley West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Eglinton-Lawrence.  On the other hand I could see him doing well in Scarborough.  Humber River-Black Creek and York South-Weston are part of the Ford Nation, but PCs are so weak there that doubt he will win either, but probably will do a lot better vote wise than the party usually does there but still not enough to actually win either.

[mileslunn]

And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 

True provincially although federally Doug Ford in 2014 won York South-Weston, Scarborough Southwest, and Scarborough-Rouge River which did go NDP federally in 2011 so if Liberals implode to third place then things could get interesting.

[mileslunn]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

[mileslunn]

In Canada there is a much weaker class system than Britain and more class mobility so income plays some role in how people vote, but not to the extent of Britain.  Never mind people with higher education tend to make more money and parties on the left tend to do better amongst educated voters than less educated.  For comparisons, a constituency like Copeland in the UK would be a safe Conservative one for the last 20 years not one that was safely Labour until recently and a shock when the Conservatives won it.  While a constituency like North West Durham would be Conservative and Bolsover a bellwether not solid Labour.  On the other hand one like Kensington, which was a shock when Labour won it would be a solid Liberal one, in many ways Kensington is comparable to Toronto-St. Paul's which is a very safe Liberal riding.  Likewise Cities of London and Westminster would be a safe Liberal not safe Tory.

The only province whose politics is somewhat comparable to British politics is BC politics with the BC Liberals being like the Conservatives and NDP like Labour.  Ontario politics are quite different.  In a lot of ways Doug Ford would appeal to the same types who were Obama-Trump voters in the US or Labour leave in the UK.

[mileslunn]

BC = Canada's Australia

True enough although Australian politics much like British and unlike Canadian tend to divide heavily along class lines.  I would also say Atlantic Canada is Canada's Germany in the sense that all parties are pretty much in the middle of the political spectrum much like until recently was the case in Germany.  Ontario is more like your solid blue state only the Democrats being split into two parties as note GOP frequently gets over 40% in solid blue states, they just don't win since they never get over 50% and the Ontario PCs haven't cracked the 50% mark in over 80 years.  In states like Massachusetts, New York, and California, GOP support ranges from low 30s to mid 40s and that is usually the general range for PC support in Ontario.  Difference is the left is under one banner which they are not in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

Oh, I guess she *does* want to come back to politics.

Assuming Elliott runs in Newmarket-Aurora and Granic Allen in Cambridge, that means Doug Ford's riding will be the most at risk of not winning while Caroline Mulroney's the safest.  Interestingly enough the QC125 prediction shows BOTH Doug Ford and Kathleen Wynne losing their seats.  I think Doug Ford is personally popular enough in that part of Etobicoke even if a uniform swing would show him losing his seat he will hold it.  Likewise Don Valley West probably would have gone Tory under Elliott or Mulroney, but Ford is the wrong type to win there.  He will overperform in blue collar areas while underperform in the more affluent areas.  After all Don Valley West went massively for John Tory municipally.

[mileslunn]

90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.

Agree I am skeptical although I find most models are bad at predicting this riding.  Asides from the 2015 federal election, it tends to go massively one way or another (Massively Liberal provincially in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2014 while federally in 2004, 2006, and 2008 while mostly conservative provincially in 1999 and federally in 2011).  I also think Doug Ford would probably have a stronger appeal here than say Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Eglinton-Lawrence as its more blue collar.  Of the 905 ridings I think Mississauga-Malton is probably the safest for the Liberals IMHO.

[mileslunn]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

[mileslunn]

A guy who started making seats projections for Quebec politics has started to use his model for Ontario politics.

http://ontario.qc125.com/

At the moment it has 75 PC seats, 26 OLP, 23 ONDP.

Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

Agreed, but also I don't buy the predictions that show Sault Ste. Marie going back to the Liberals, not happening.  Most likely the PCs will hold it, but if they do lose it, it will be to the NDP not Liberals.  In addition I don't think Ottawa South, Kingston & the Islands, or Guelph will be going Tory even if a uniform swing shows them winning those.  Nor do I buy the idea of the PCs getting 30% in Ottawa Centre or high 20s in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.  Generally speaking suburban ridings tend to see much bigger swings than your urban core which are solidly left wing and only swing massively between the NDP and Liberals (PCs always do badly in downtown Toronto) while in rural ridings PCs have a solid base that sticks with them through good and bad times, but rarely do they go much above 60% (It's more like the BC Interior as opposed to rural Prairie ridings where right wing parties frequently top the 70% or sometimes even 80% mark).  Still the predictions are good rough indications not exact for each riding.

[mileslunn]

Giorgio Mammoliti is running, but in Brampton Centre.  I think unlike where he lives that riding is winneable but most simulations show it a three way race so will be interesting as I think all three parties have a reasonable shot there.  Wonder what cabinet post he would get?  Maybe the minister responsible for prostitution (remember he was the one who wanted to make Toronto Island a red light district).

Doesn't he live in York West? York West is a 60%+ Fordnation riding. It's definitely a potential PC pickup.

Yup, but there is already a PC candidate nominated in the old York West riding, now called Humber River-Black Creek. Which even with redistribution this time around, I don't think the boundaries changed here only the name, odd.
The PC candidate probably did not want to step aside.

I know, I'm just saying that the PCs have a good chance at winning the riding. It depends how loyal Fordnation is to the Ford brand.

(And yes, I'm aware of the new name, but I keep forgetting it, so I've just kept calling it York West).

I will admit for Humber River-Black Creek anything from the PCs getting clobbered to winning a landslide seems plausible but assume it will fall somewhere in between.  In recent elections PCs struggle just to crack the 20% mark yet Doug Ford got over 60% in the last municipal election.  Otherwise will the PC label push many away who voted for Ford municipally but cannot stomach voting PC or will Doug Ford being leader bring over that 40% who voted for him municipally but never vote PC.  I am guessing the PCs will do much better than usual in that riding, but probably not what Ford got municipally as municipal and provincial politics are different so while leader matters party label and loyalty which you lack municipally does too.

[mileslunn]

In terms of winneability for PCs in Toronto, I would probably say something along these lines:

Likely wins:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough North
York Centre

Favourable chances

Scarborough-Agincourt
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence

Possible pick-ups but probably uphill battles

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley West
Don Valley East
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park

Real long shots

Scarborough Southwest
Humber River-Black Creek
York South Weston

Haven't got a living hope in hell of winning

Parkdale-High Park
Davenport
Fort York-Spadina
Toronto-St. Paul's
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
Beaches-East York

[mileslunn]

Interestingly it was York Centre and not Eglinton-Lawrence that Joe Oliver tried (unsuccessfully) to run for the PC nomination.  Both ridings are about 20-25% Jewish.

I'm guessing it was because he predicted (correctly) that Kwinter was going to retire and an open seat would be easier to win than going against Mike Colle?

Or maybe YC Jews are more right-leaning than Eg-Law Jews.

York Centre was also their best showing in the 416 in the 2011 provincial and second or third best in 2014.  True federal and provincial are different but unless Ford does something really stupid whatever share of the popular vote Harper got in 2015, the PCs should get at least that.  It's more a question of how much higher they will go and in ones like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre probably only a few points whereas somewhere like Etobicoke North it will probably be many.  In those two the Tories almost won in the 2015 election and the NDP will probably do a bit better so if Ford can just match or narrowly beat what Harper got in 2015, he will take those.

I also think Monte Kwinter not running too makes the seat more vulnerable than it would have had he run.  Another example is St. Catherines with long time MPP Jim Bradley.  If he weren't running, that would be pretty much a sure PC pick up whereas with him the Liberals at least have a shot.

[mileslunn]

Yup, I'd place this as third highest target for the NDP in Brampton, probably all of Peel... After Brampton East and Brampton North. 

Brampton East - Jagmeet's brother is running, but I do believe Brampton Centre is next on their list in all of Peel.  

I would say Brampton Centre followed by Brampton North are their best hopes there but I will admit with the Sikh community their swings don't always follow the overall trends.  Anyone know if Ford is popular amongst Sikhs or he is a liability with them?  Also Brampton Centre will have Mammoliti as the PC candidate so do others think he will be a liability or non-factor?

[mileslunn]

Any thoughts on seats the NDP or PCs could lose?  Mine are below

PCs:

Most obvious would be Scarborough North and Sault Ste. Marie as they picked both up in by-elections although I can only realistically see the Liberals regaining the former not the latter.  If there is an NDP surge you could see some PC ridings go NDP, but otherwise not many I can think of.  If PCs lose Sault Ste. Marie it will likely be to the NDP, not Liberals.

If NDP gets over 30% and PCs under 40%, then NDP gains

Chatham-Kent-Leamington
Sarnia-Lambton

Theoretical Liberal gains

Thornhill
Whitby
Kitchener-Conestoga
Kanata-Carleton
Nepean
Bay of Quinte

I don't think the Liberals will gain any of these, but these are all ones they were competitive in either federally or last provincial election, but with how unpopular they are now, don't see those flipping, probably won't even be close.  That being said in 2022 the Liberals could win those and perhaps even more if Ford is a real disaster.

Liberal gains from NDP

Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth
Brampton East

In reality I don't think they will gain any of those even if they emerge as the main progressive alternative

Potential PC gains from NDP - see comments in brackets

Brampton East (Highly unlikely unless you get a perfect three way split)

Niagara Centre (Possible as it is an open seat and fairly populist, but still think NDP will hold this)

Niagara Falls (Would probably go PC with a generic candidate but Wayne Gates personal popularity should be enough although I expect this to be tight)

Waterloo (Only if there is a strong vote split as with the two universities cannot see a Ford led PC going higher than the high 30s)

London West (Had Elliott won, I think this would have likely flipped, but being affluent and educated Ford might not come off well here, but still should be close.  London-Fanshawe is probably the best riding in London for him, but NDP too far ahead to flip).

Essex (Pretty sure this will stay NDP due to popularity of local MPP, but with a generic candidate I think the PCs would be favoured here and could flip federally in 2019)

Kenora-Rainy River (Lack of incumbent and boundary changes will make this closer, but still think NDP will come out ahead)

Timmins (This should stay NDP, Gilles Bisson quite popular.  Had he run in Mushegowuk-James Bay, I think this would have been vulernable however).

[mileslunn]

Also noticed some defeated Harper candidates running, here are my thoughts on their chances.

Near certain to win

Daryl Kramp (Hastings-Lennox & Addington)

Likely to win

Parm Gill (Milton)
Paul Calandra (Markham-Stouffville)

Possible win

Susan Truppe (London North Centre)

Possible but unlikely

Greg Rickford (Kenora-Rainy River)