Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

While the poll out today is Forum so I always take them with a grain of salt they are good at picking up trends.  Clearly the NDP has the momentum.  Would be interesting if Nanos, Ekos, Innovative, and Mainstreet come out with an Ontario poll as they've always showed the NDP much lower than the one's reporting so far so will they show the NDP pulling ahead or Liberals still in second.  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover.  For the PCs somewhat bad news but as long as they stay north of 40% they will be fine as well as if you look at age breakdowns its really millennials where the NDP is doing well amongst and PCs still ahead amongst other age groups.  Also all of them seem to show a strong gender gap with NDP tied or ahead amongst female voters, but amongst male voters PCs still well ahead close to 50%.  I think Ford's style is a turnoff to women voters thus why you get a large gender gap.

[mileslunn]

Ford has promised a 20% tax cut for the middle class so it looks like to date the PCs are more or less keeping the people's guarantee sans carbon tax.  Will be interesting to see the whole costed platform as there is a $6 billion hole although perhaps they don't plan on balancing the budget as soon would be my guess.

Ford said it would be implemented in the second or third year.  While this doesn't help those who need it most, this is the exact same income group Trudeau gave a tax cut too so if it worked for Trudeau why not try it although to be fair Trudeau raised taxes on the rich, but for the PCs that is not an option.

[Krago]

Is there anyone else out there who thinks that Kathleen Wynne may resign as Ontario Liberal leader on the weekend, and recommend that the party unanimously support Sandra Pupatello as her replacement?

It wouldn't be the first time that the Liberals tried to change leaders in mid-campaign (1988), and Wynne's brand is so toxic I think she is past the point of no return.

The Liberals would have to choose someone willing to go full throttle against Ford and Horwath over the next four weeks, and the only name that comes to mind is Pupatello (whom my brother-in-law calls the Wicked Witch of Windsor West).

[RogueBeaver]

It was batsh**t 30 years ago and still is. If Wynne was gonna leave she'd have left already and the Grits already tried this once. All of them are McWynnety people and wouldn't be much different.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why would they pick someone who is not even running as a candidate?

[DC Al Fine]

Much too late now. Only thing to do is try and avoid total disaster so they have a decent base to start the rebuilding process.

[Krago]

Why would they pick someone who is not even running as a candidate?

Like Chretien in 1988?

[136or142]

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.

Are you claiming the government can't make a profit with having a monopoly selling weed? 

I realize you're likely arguing that the government would make more money taxing it than being in the retail business itself, but, at least in British Columbia, the government seems to have done a good job with liquor stores (beer and wine can now be sold privately, separate from bars and restaurants of course.)

I only know so much about this because I don't drink alcohol, but the government run stores seem to get a fair deal of praise.

Count your lucky stars. Nova Scotia Liquor Commission is awful.

The great thing of living in a nation is that you are free to go across borders and buy alcohol in any province you want and take it back with you.  Oh wait....

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Things are getting interesting with a brand new poll by Forum all conducted Wednesday night

PCs 40%
NDP 33%
OLP 22%

I have a gut feeling this turns into a 1990 Bob Rae situation.

[Pericles]

I think the NDP is going to win the election actually. Something like 41% NDP, 38% PC, 19% Liberal.

[2952-0-0]

I think the NDP is going to win the election actually. Something like 41% NDP, 38% PC, 19% Liberal.

If that happened, the PCPO will implode even after gaining seats. The OLP will be too busy soul-searching. Of course there's zero chance of the two opposition parties merging like in Alberta. The media will devote more attention to Doug Ford's antics than on the actual government. Who says Canadian politics is a snoozefest?

[lilTommy]

I think the NDP is going to win the election actually. Something like 41% NDP, 38% PC, 19% Liberal.

Using the simulator http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

We get:
PC - 40% - 75
NDP - 33% - 44
OLP - 22% - 5

NDP - 41% - 62
PC - 38% - 61
OLP - 19% - 1 (that 1 is listed as Toronto-St.Paul's)

Fun, but pretty un-realistic; The OLP at even 20% would have about half a dozen seats I think, MPPs who win almost solely on their personal popularity or like Toronto-St.Paul's, a strong hold riding for the Liberals, I think their strongest? as of 2014.

[136or142]

Doug Ford calls the question he was asked about 'does he know how bills become laws' a 'gotcha question' and his enablers like Andrew MacDougall at MacLean's (MacDougall is former Communications Director for Prime Minister Stephen Harper) refer to his lack of knowledge on this as something only insiders care about:

"You can bet your life Reynolds wouldn’t have written up an admiring piece detailing Ford’s response. Reynolds had absolutely no interest in informing the “people of Ontario” about civics; he was in it for the possibility of a trainwreck. It was a gag to please himself and his mates in the press gallery."

He then suggests those with basic civics knowledge are the problem: "Queen’s Park, mind you, is full of people who know how to answer that question, and it’s not like the province is in rude health, fiscal or otherwise. If knowledge of civics were a cure all to the problems plaguing Ontario then I would be the first in line to applaud Reynolds for leading the charge."

I'd like to suggest, with help from Orwell, Doug Ford and the P.Cs campaign slogan:
Either
1.Ignorance is Knowledge
or
2.Ignorance is Expertise

[DL]

I think the NDP is going to win the election actually. Something like 41% NDP, 38% PC, 19% Liberal.

Using the simulator http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

We get:
PC - 40% - 75
NDP - 33% - 44
OLP - 22% - 5

NDP - 41% - 62
PC - 38% - 61
OLP - 19% - 1 (that 1 is listed as Toronto-St.Paul's)

Fun, but pretty un-realistic; The OLP at even 20% would have about half a dozen seats I think, MPPs who win almost solely on their personal popularity or like Toronto-St.Paul's, a strong hold riding for the Liberals, I think their strongest? as of 2014.

The Liberals will never lose St. Paul's its full of people who see themselves as too smart to vote for Doug Ford and too rich to vote NDP. Its the equivalent of River Heights in Winnipeg which is typically the only Liberal seat there

[MaxQue]

While the poll out today is Forum so I always take them with a grain of salt they are good at picking up trends.  Clearly the NDP has the momentum.  Would be interesting if Nanos, Ekos, Innovative, and Mainstreet come out with an Ontario poll as they've always showed the NDP much lower than the one's reporting so far so will they show the NDP pulling ahead or Liberals still in second.  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover.  For the PCs somewhat bad news but as long as they stay north of 40% they will be fine as well as if you look at age breakdowns its really millennials where the NDP is doing well amongst and PCs still ahead amongst other age groups.  Also all of them seem to show a strong gender gap with NDP tied or ahead amongst female voters, but amongst male voters PCs still well ahead close to 50%.  I think Ford's style is a turnoff to women voters thus why you get a large gender gap.

Nanos won't see NDP 2nd, as they are anti-NDP hacks with "sudden" shifts just before the election to have a good record.

[adma]

  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover. 

Though actually, they went *up* a point from the previous Forum poll.  It just looks worse because there's more space btw/them and the NDP now.

When it comes to "recovery": well, maybe not enough to win, but perhaps enough to salvage some dignity, and maybe as a token beneficiary of Doug Ford's gaffes after all...

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Their is a leaders debate tomorrow in Parry Sound on Northern policies. 

https://www.parrysound.com/news-story/8592643-wynne-ford-and-horwath-debate-in-parry-sound-friday/

[King of Kensington]

Their is a leaders debate tomorrow in Parry Sound on Northern policies. 

https://www.parrysound.com/news-story/8592643-wynne-ford-and-horwath-debate-in-parry-sound-friday/

Will they address the question of whether Parry Sound is "really" part of Northern Ontario?

[DC Al Fine]

Late to vote compass game:

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=b2107cffd027a7b8a916bf35f4a9b842af47ea441526034705

I'm obviously closest to the Tories, but my result came up as slightly more socially progressive than the Tories which is a bit odd. This is presumably because I believe the government to do "much more" to accommodate religious minorities, which is "more progressive" than the NDP stance! I'm also slightly to the left of the Tories fiscally but that isn't really surprising.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out and while they show the NDP in third, they do show them rising and on best premier pay attention there.  PCs still well in front off course, but it seems they are down to low 40s instead of mid 40s.

PC 41.1%
Liberal 28.5%
NDP 24.3%

This was April 29 - May 6th so right around when the NDP started to rise.  If you check their website NDP still below October 2017, but higher than others.  On preferred premier, this is where things look good for the NDP

Ford 32.5%
Horwath 26.6%
Wynne 16.6%

On vote Consider it was for PCs 50% yes, 42% No
NDP 45% yes, 45% No
Liberals 40% yes, 50% No

So all parties have room for growth but NDP the most.  Nonetheless if a party only gets 80% of potential supporters this would likely give the PCs a narrow majority, NDP a minority or strong opposition if Liberals implode, while Liberals just retaining opposition.

In terms of seats, this comes out to 71 seats PCs, 27 seats NDP, and 26 seats Liberals so NDP would still form official opposition in this case.  For those who want to bash Nanos, I would like to point out last time around they were the closest to the final election numbers.

Nanos

Liberal 37.7% vs. 38.7%
PC 31.2% vs. 31.3%
NDP 23.7% vs. 23.8%

Small sample of only 500 this room for higher margin of error, but use CATI as opposed to online or IVR and while all have their pluses and drawbacks, CATI at least in Canada seems to have the best track record overall.  In the US though online were the best in the last election although CATI in 2012.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nanos is out and while they show the NDP in third, they do show them rising and on best premier pay attention there.  PCs still well in front off course, but it seems they are down to low 40s instead of mid 40s.

PC 41%
Liberal 28%
NDP 24%

Liberals should be at 29% not 28%

Link: http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ON-Political-Package-DRAFT.pdf

[DL]

Nanos is out and while they show the NDP in third, they do show them rising and on best premier pay attention there.  PCs still well in front off course, but it seems they are down to low 40s instead of mid 40s.

PC 41.1%
Liberal 28.5%
NDP 24.3%

This was April 29 - May 6th so right around when the NDP started to rise.  If you check their website NDP still below October 2017, but higher than others.  On preferred premier, this is where things look good for the NDP

Ford 32.5%
Horwath 26.6%
Wynne 16.6%

On vote Consider it was for PCs 50% yes, 42% No
NDP 45% yes, 45% No
Liberals 40% yes, 50% No

So all parties have room for growth but NDP the most.  Nonetheless if a party only gets 80% of potential supporters this would likely give the PCs a narrow majority, NDP a minority or strong opposition if Liberals implode, while Liberals just retaining opposition.

I have a theory about Nanos and why their numbers are (for now) a bit different and also how different the "best premier" question is. When nanos asks "Who would make the best premier?" it comes after a preamble where they prompt saying Doug Ford is the PC leader, Horwath is the NDP leader etc... when they initially ask the vote question it is a totally unprompted open ended question of "which parties would be your top two voting preferences?" (a weird way to word the question but what the hell).

I think that because so many more people vaguely identify as Liberals and because of all the confusion in Ontario between federal and provincial politics, an open ended question before writ drop with no prompting likely inflates the Liberals and suppresses the NDP.

I would hypothesize that if nanos asked the vote question reading out "The PC led by Doug Ford, the NDP led by Andrea Horwath etc..." you would get vote numbers much more in line with the best premier numbers

[adma]

This was April 29 - May 6th so right around when the NDP started to rise.  

And also that pre-writ, pre-debate period when the PCs still projected something tight and in control, despite the Greenbelt controversy, despite the candidate appointments, despite Tanya Granic Allen's dismissal at the end of that timeframe.

My feeling is that in future polling, post-May 6 is going to make all the difference.

[mileslunn]

In Adam Radawanski' article in the Globe and Mail, Innovative research had a poll they gave them of 915 voters between Msy 7th and May 9th showing the NDP and Liberals tied at 27 percent. Didn't say PC numbers but likely down and in the 38 to 42 percent range. Wynne has -37 approval but Ford is -26 while Horwath is +24 so definitely suggest NDP has lots of potential. Mainstreet will be out tomorrow and their tweets say big shifts. Likely PC's still in first but will be interested in numbers while maybe NDP in second and Liberals third. Their Toronto numbers suggest some shifts but pretty minor.

[DL]

New Mainstreet poll confirms the NDP surge and Liberal collapse

PCs 42% (down 3)
NDP 28% (up 7)
Libs 22% (down 6)
Greens 6% (up 1)
Other 2%