Ontario 2018 election

[Oryxslayer]

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/ontario-election-ndp-liberals-anti-ford/

Best Premier:
Horwath - 47%
Ford - 36%
Wynne - 18%

Best premier is often a leading indicator for how people will eventually vote....just sayin'

Not really, in BC the last polls found Clark with a 'better leader advantage' of ~4 points, even as she was down by a small popularity gap to Howard. If anything, modern world elections have shown how voters will happily hold their nose and vote for a leader they disapprove of. (SPD coalition vote, Macron and the left, Therisa May, Abe, and of course Trump)

[DC Al Fine]

Woohoo, New Ipsos poll shows a further acceleration of the NDP hovering up the progressive vote and emerging as the main opposition to Ford

PCs 40% (unchanged)
NDP 35% (up 6)
Liberals 22% (down 4)
Greens 3% (down. 2)

Needless to say this points to a total Liberal annihilation

But also to the Tories staying put.  That is, there's not yet any real evidence of "soft" Ford populists joining the Andrea bandwagon instead...

Hmm, wonder if we get a May/Corbyn style result. That would make for an interesting map.

[DL]

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/ontario-election-ndp-liberals-anti-ford/

Best Premier:
Horwath - 47%
Ford - 36%
Wynne - 18%

Best premier is often a leading indicator for how people will eventually vote....just sayin'

Not really, in BC the last polls found Clark with a 'better leader advantage' of ~4 points, even as she was down by a small popularity gap to Howard. If anything, modern world elections have shown how voters will happily hold their nose and vote for a leader they disapprove of. (SPD coalition vote, Macron and the left, Therisa May, Abe, and of course Trump)

I'm not saying the Ontario NDP will win, just that with 47% of people saying Horwath would make the best premier, its clear that 35% is not their ceiling...and with only 36% saying Ford would make the best premier, it means that 40% is not the PC floor either

[DC Al Fine]

It would be nice if the Liberals hold their vote in the north Toronto ridings that John Tory dominated municipally and Doug Ford bombed in.  But I don't even know if that can happen at this point given anti-Liberal sentiment at this point.

Federal 2011 result in Ontario was about 45-25-25 and Willowdale/Don Valley East/North/West were all pretty tight. Right now the Tory Liberal margin is slightly narrower than that and I imagine Ford will underperform Harper there. If the Liberals can stop the decline in the low 20's I think they'll be ok.

[King of Kensington]

Hmm, wonder if we get a May/Corbyn style result. That would make for an interesting map.

Yes.  Corbyn did very well in urban districts with a lot of educated middle classes and young people, areas the NDP strategists basically dismissed as a bunch of out of touch latte sippers or something.
It's not the dominant but it's nonetheless an important pillar of a social democratic path to victory.  

This time it's different.  Jessica Bell, the candidate in University-Rosedale, is getting a lot of press and attention (she introduced Andrea Horwath at the platform launch and is going to be representing the NDP on The Agenda this evening on a discussion about transit issues.)

Lots of social democratic and center-left parties have been impacted by a blue collar/professional split, but it doesn't have to be that way if you have policies and messaging that's appealing to both.

ETA:  Yes, I modified this post because I was annoyed that I didn't include the closing bracket.

[lilTommy]

It would be nice if the Liberals hold their vote in the north Toronto ridings that John Tory dominated municipally and Doug Ford bombed in.  But I don't even know if that can happen at this point given anti-Liberal sentiment at this point.

Federal 2011 result in Ontario was about 45-25-25 and Willowdale/Don Valley East/North/West were all pretty tight. Right now the Tory Liberal margin is slightly narrower than that and I imagine Ford will underperform Harper there. If the Liberals can stop the decline in the low 20's I think they'll be ok.

Those areas, Don Valley North/East/West, Willowdale were not won by Ford in the mayoral 2014 but were won by Tory, so no really big Ford name/nation advantage here.
Don Valley East - Interesting as its a Cabinet minister (Coteau) vs a City Councillor (Minnan-wong), two big names and I could see this going either way.
Don Valley North - OLP nominated a city councillor as well (Carroll) so name advantage here, with no star PC candidate
Don Valley West - Wynne's seat, no "star" PC candidate really (an executive? i think)
Willowdale - OLP Cabinet minister (Zimmer) no star PC candidate.  

If the Liberals are at the point of saving what they can, and they are getting there (if not already) they need to target key seats. I think all of these are salvageable for the OLP; DVE will be the hardest since the PCs arguably have a star candidate.  
I think their best shots additionally are - TO-St.Paul's and Eglinton-Lawrence, and maybe University-Rosedale mostly b/c of the Rosedale area. These areas are just too wealthy to vote NDP and never really have, UniRose being outlier.
If the PC and NDP under perform here, the OLP can hold on. As I see it now, I think the NDP, polling as well as they are, will eek out the OLP. It will be a East vs West side of the riding though.

[DL]

I'm not so sure about the Liberals holding Eglinton-Lawrence...its not as wealthy as you think and is increasingly populated by rightwing orthodox Jews...it was Joe Oliver territory federally for a long time

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosedale actually makes up a small percentage of University-Rosedale. If the NDP can win the rest of the riding by ~10%, they should be able to win the seat. I figure they probably will end up doing so.

As for Eglinton-Lawrence, it will probably go PC at this point, but something to remember is that Doug Ford didn't do very well there in the mayoral election for whatever reason.

[lilTommy]

I'm thinking Avenue road and anything east of there, but I think your right, that wouldn't really represent even 50% of the riding.

Interesting looking at Eglinton-Lawrence, Ford won ward 15 (looks like over 40%) and Tory won ward 16(over 60%); Ford won West of Bathurst, Tory East. now the Tory/Ford battle might not mean too to much since they are just two different shades of conservatives, but interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_mayoral_election,_2014 Looking at the 2015 the Tory's won the corridor running from Avenue west to Allen. In 2011 looks like Tory's won the riding by winning over the polls east of Avenue. West of Allen is very strong for the Liberals even in 2011.

 

[mileslunn]

While not a big difference, Ipsos shows PCs at 40.4% and NDP at 34.6% and Liberals 21.6% so if you ignore rounding it is actually 6 point difference.  Still NDP has momentum, but unless Liberals completely collapse they will need to pick up some soft PC support.  Would be quite interesting to see the PCs get over 40% and lose or the NDP as a matter of fact.  I don't believe any party has over gotten over 40% in Ontario and lost, but its happened a number of times in other provinces where you have two way races, happened in UK last year, and almost always is the case in the US where both parties get over 40%.  Wonder what the chances are now of both parties getting over 40%?

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosedale is east of Yonge Street, though the area between Yonge and Avenue isn't exactly NDP-friendly.

[Oryxslayer]

While not a big difference, Ipsos shows PCs at 40.4% and NDP at 34.6% and Liberals 21.6% so if you ignore rounding it is actually 6 point difference.  Still NDP has momentum, but unless Liberals completely collapse they will need to pick up some soft PC support.  Would be quite interesting to see the PCs get over 40% and lose or the NDP as a matter of fact.  I don't believe any party has over gotten over 40% in Ontario and lost, but its happened a number of times in other provinces where you have two way races, happened in UK last year, and almost always is the case in the US where both parties get over 40%.  Wonder what the chances are now of both parties getting over 40%?

Here is a better question, what is the likelihood that the NDP wins the pop vote in the end, but still the Tories win a majority do to efficient vote divisions and the NDP-Lib spit in key areas.

[mileslunn]

While not a big difference, Ipsos shows PCs at 40.4% and NDP at 34.6% and Liberals 21.6% so if you ignore rounding it is actually 6 point difference.  Still NDP has momentum, but unless Liberals completely collapse they will need to pick up some soft PC support.  Would be quite interesting to see the PCs get over 40% and lose or the NDP as a matter of fact.  I don't believe any party has over gotten over 40% in Ontario and lost, but its happened a number of times in other provinces where you have two way races, happened in UK last year, and almost always is the case in the US where both parties get over 40%.  Wonder what the chances are now of both parties getting over 40%?

Here is a better question, what is the likelihood that the NDP wins the pop vote in the end, but still the Tories win a majority do to efficient vote divisions and the NDP-Lib spit in key areas.

Possible although in that case if a minority, they would have a good argument they should form government instead of the PCs.  Now if the Liberals fall to less than 3 seats it might not matter.  Another interesting scenario is if the PCs get exactly 62 seats, they will probably refuse to put up a speaker unless the other two parties agree not to form any type of arrangement since an opposition speaker would give them a majority while one from their own a minority.

[Pericles]

Tbh I think the NDP will end up winning. Something like 40% NDP, 37% PC, 18% Liberal.

[King of Kensington]

I'm not so sure about the Liberals holding Eglinton-Lawrence...its not as wealthy as you think and is increasingly populated by rightwing orthodox Jews...it was Joe Oliver territory federally for a long time

He served one term!  Though maybe it felt like 8 years.

But yeah, Orthodox Jews are basically vote as a bloc for the right now.  It's enough to put Thornhill out of contention for the Liberals and has made Eglinton-Lawrence more swingy.

[King of Kensington]

Rosedale is east of Yonge Street, though the area between Yonge and Avenue isn't exactly NDP-friendly.

There is I believe about a 70/30 split between "Trinity-Spadina" and "Toronto Centre-Rosedale" respectfully.

The NDP definitely hits a wall east of Avenue Rd. but the riding can be won if the NDP dominates the rest of the riding.

[toaster]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

[136or142]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

[mileslunn]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

Definitely possible although the PC numbers will need to fall a bit for that to happen but not impossible especially if undecided voters overwhelmingly break NDP.  Nonetheless I tend to think if NDP wins, that will only happen if Liberals completely implode meaning fewer than 5 Liberal seats and thus a majority for one of the parties.

[DC Al Fine]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

Agreed. As much as the election nerd in me would like to see an historic result, we're still three weeks out from election day. There's plenty of time for the Liberal and Tory campaigns to adjust.

[DC Al Fine]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

Definitely possible although the PC numbers will need to fall a bit for that to happen but not impossible especially if undecided voters overwhelmingly break NDP.  Nonetheless I tend to think if NDP wins, that will only happen if Liberals completely implode meaning fewer than 5 Liberal seats and thus a majority for one of the parties.

It would be very weird to see a BC/Prairie style result in Ontario.

[136or142]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

Definitely possible although the PC numbers will need to fall a bit for that to happen but not impossible especially if undecided voters overwhelmingly break NDP.  Nonetheless I tend to think if NDP wins, that will only happen if Liberals completely implode meaning fewer than 5 Liberal seats and thus a majority for one of the parties.

Not necessarily.  Because of uncertainly with the polls and people's uncertainty over the accuracy of the polls, it's very unlikely all that many people would be thinking "I'd vote P.C to stop the NDP, but the polls show the P.Cs have a 5 point lead over the NDP, so I don't need to worry and I can vote Liberal."

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Something I decided to calculate this while procrastinating from my finals, and I've determined that if the NDP wins Ontario, a majority of Canadians (about 61%) will live in a province with an NDP government. Has that ever happened before?

As for what I think will happen, my gut feeling is that Horwath takes it in the end and it might be bigger than people think possible. There are a couple recent examples in Canada of a party surging during the campaign to what seems like minority territory then snatching a majority when the votes come in (Trudeau 2015, Notley 2015 (although that required a near-perfect split on the right which won't happen here), Wynne 2014, possibly more I don't remember) and this is beginning to feel like those. This could be wishful thinking bc my best friend is from Ontario and we're both huge transit nerds who would be nervous to see a Ford within spitting distance of Queen's Park, let alone see him become Premier, but an NDP win has certainly entered the realm of possibility.

[mileslunn]

Something I decided to calculate this while procrastinating from my finals, and I've determined that if the NDP wins Ontario, a majority of Canadians (about 61%) will live in a province with an NDP government. Has that ever happened before?

As for what I think will happen, my gut feeling is that Horwath takes it in the end and it might be bigger than people think possible. There are a couple recent examples in Canada of a party surging during the campaign to what seems like minority territory then snatching a majority when the votes come in (Trudeau 2015, Notley 2015 (although that required a near-perfect split on the right which won't happen here), Wynne 2014, possibly more I don't remember) and this is beginning to feel like those. This could be wishful thinking bc my best friend is from Ontario and we're both huge transit nerds who would be nervous to see a Ford within spitting distance of Queen's Park, let alone see him become Premier, but an NDP win has certainly entered the realm of possibility.

No, but it did get close to 50% back in the early 90s when you had BC, Ontario, and Saskatchewan.  At that time it was under 50%, but those three provinces put together are now over 50% of the population.

[DC Al Fine]

Tbh I think the NDP will end up winning. Something like 40% NDP, 37% PC, 18% Liberal.

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

I will be boring and predict a not especially large Tory majority. The NDP will be the official opposition but they won't beat the Liberals by a ton in the popular vote.