Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

  Wonder what the chances are now of both parties getting over 40%?

Given that the Liberals'll probably get a dead cat bounce from all its incumbents running and that the Greens are also a factor, I'll say the chances are pretty slim.

[Krago]

Tomorrow is Nomination Day.  That means that all the juicy tidbits that parties have been collecting about their opponents' candidates will start dribbling out, after the deadline has passed for them to be replaced. 

So far, only Tanya Granic Allen has been tossed.  What is the over/under on the number of candidates who will be disavowed by their party in the next three weeks?  My guess is four. 

[DC Al Fine]

What's the deal with Wynne using change as a theme in her ads? Seems like a dumb idea for government seeking a fifth term.

[lilTommy]

Here is some very interesting data:
https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

Broken down by "Value cluster" and "Alienation segmentation"
The 2014 vs 2018 trends, showing the growing support for the NDP and away from the Liberals.
Groups like Core Left, Left Liberals the NDP now lead; large growth too for the NDP under Thrifty Moderates.

I don't fully "get" some of these groupings under Alienation Segmentation?

[King of Kensington]

Might as well ask: has anyone here crunched the popular vote numbers for the City of Toronto in 2014?

[DC Al Fine]

Might as well ask: has anyone here crunched the popular vote numbers for the City of Toronto in 2014?

Grenier had 49.0-23.0-22.4-3.9-1.7

[King of Kensington]

Thanks!

[Hatman 🍁]

Using Kyle Hutton's transposition, I get:

Lib: 49.1%
PC: 23.1%
NDP: 22.2%
Grn: 3.9%
Other 1.7%

Must be including Pickering-Scarborough East or something.

[lilTommy]

Using Kyle Hutton's transposition, I get:

Lib: 49.1%
PC: 23.1%
NDP: 22.2%
Grn: 3.9%
Other 1.7%

Must be including Pickering-Scarborough East or something.

Compared with IPSOS 416 poll:

NDP 38%, -> +16%
PC 34%, -> +11%
OLP 26% -> -23%

[Njall]

What's the deal with Wynne using change as a theme in her ads? Seems like a dumb idea for government seeking a fifth term.

FWIW, campaigning on the idea of change without a new government was a part of the tactics that kept the Alberta PCs in government for 12 terms. Although you usually saw that more explicitly when there had been a change in the party leader.

[mileslunn]

Using Kyle Hutton's transposition, I get:

Lib: 49.1%
PC: 23.1%
NDP: 22.2%
Grn: 3.9%
Other 1.7%

Must be including Pickering-Scarborough East or something.

Compared with IPSOS 416 poll:

NDP 38%, -> +16%
PC 34%, -> +11%
OLP 26% -> -23%

Also as a reference point, the 2011 federal results in Toronto were

Liberals 35%
Conservatives 31%
NDP 30%

so Liberals in third is devastating as their vote is pretty evenly spread out across the city.  PCs are mostly in the suburbs so if at 34% in the 416, they are probably north of 40% in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York while low 20s in the downtown.  NDP probably has a massive lead in the old city while somewhat weaker in the suburbs.

The old city in 2011 federally for comparison was

NDP 41%
Liberals 30%
Conservatives 21%

Scarborough was a three way race but Liberals narrowly in first, Tories second, and NDP close third (although this being the heart of the Ford Nation, I think PCs will outperform here), Etobicoke was a tie at 39% between Tories and Liberals, while North York was a narrow Tory win at 40% and Liberals 38%.  East York and York both went NDP, Liberals second, and Tories third but mid to upper 20s.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Ford should underperform compared to Harper in wealthier ridings, but will likely do better in Scarborough, York and north Etobicoke.

[Holmes]

The NDP surge is really exciting. I'm looking forward to the maps. Not looking forward to a PC government but Ontario always has horrible governments, so it is what it is.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, Ford should underperform compared to Harper in wealthier ridings, but will likely do better in Scarborough, York and north Etobicoke.

That's probably good news for the premier as her seat went narrowly Tory in 2011 so notwithstanding the polls she might hold it.  I also think in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Eglinton-Lawrence Ford will underperform Harper 2011 but may still win both if the Liberals implode badly enough as NDP probably too weak to win either.  Scarborough-Agincourt and Etobicoke North and maybe even Scarborough-Guildwood are ones I could see Ford winning that Harper couldn't.  Humber River-Black Creek also might go NDP and even Toronto Centre with the loss of Rosedale could be picked up by the NDP.  On the other hand Fort York-Spadina and University-Rosedale may stay Liberal even if NDP gets over 40 seats although cannot see NDP winning outright and losing those two.

[King of Kensington]

This may be of interest:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=292129.0

[King of Kensington]

That's probably good news for the premier as her seat went narrowly Tory in 2011 so notwithstanding the polls she might hold it.  I also think in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Eglinton-Lawrence Ford will underperform Harper 2011 but may still win both if the Liberals implode badly enough as NDP probably too weak to win either.  Scarborough-Agincourt and Etobicoke North and maybe even Scarborough-Guildwood are ones I could see Ford winning that Harper couldn't.  Humber River-Black Creek also might go NDP and even Toronto Centre with the loss of Rosedale could be picked up by the NDP.  On the other hand Fort York-Spadina and University-Rosedale may stay Liberal even if NDP gets over 40 seats although cannot see NDP winning outright and losing those two.

Yeah, no way that Etobicoke North, Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough-Agincourt will be topping the list for Liberal vote share.

[lilTommy]

Yeah, Ford should underperform compared to Harper in wealthier ridings, but will likely do better in Scarborough, York and north Etobicoke.

That's probably good news for the premier as her seat went narrowly Tory in 2011 so notwithstanding the polls she might hold it.  I also think in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Eglinton-Lawrence Ford will underperform Harper 2011 but may still win both if the Liberals implode badly enough as NDP probably too weak to win either.  Scarborough-Agincourt and Etobicoke North and maybe even Scarborough-Guildwood are ones I could see Ford winning that Harper couldn't.  Humber River-Black Creek also might go NDP and even Toronto Centre with the loss of Rosedale could be picked up by the NDP.  On the other hand Fort York-Spadina and University-Rosedale may stay Liberal even if NDP gets over 40 seats although cannot see NDP winning outright and losing those two.

Spadina-Fort York is very Progressive-Swing, It was very easily won by the NDP consistently (the old Trinity-Spadina) even with the condo boom; 2014 and 2015 were big overall swings to the Liberals in TO which is why they won here, but can easily swing back to the NDP.

Toronto is interesting since back in 2014 the NDP polled really well in seats we now see Ford winning or were Ford won in the mayoral; Etobicoke North, Scarborough North specifically. While I see Humber River-Black Creek going NDP along with York Sotuh-Weston, and the three DT riding's going NDP; previously I would have said Etobicoke North is a big target for the NDP, Ford threw a wrench in that. In Scarborough I think SSW is the best pick-up for the NDP, this is not/wasn't a Ford/PC area for the most part. Memories of 2011Fed! I think S.Guildwood might be the only OLP seat, maybe. Scarborough North is a toss, the PCs won the by-election but the NDP consistently's polled very well, if the OLP vote bleeds out, and goes en-mass to the NDP they can win here. But this is big time Ford-nation so.

I think Etobicoke-Lakeshore is also interesting, there is some NDP history and base here, but I think its just enough to push this into the PC column, not enough to win outright... unless they sweep the south end of the riding. 

[King of Kensington]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

I agree, I think the Liberals will receive something like a Rae '95 vote share.

It's really hard to see an "anybody but the NDP" vote occurring.  Ford is just too polarizing.  I don't there are many Kathleen Wynne fans who when down to the wire concede that it's "either Doug or Andrea" will go with the former.

[King of Kensington]

It's interesting to note that the PCs in the Ipsos poll are at 34% in Toronto, the same share Doug Ford received as mayor.  But the map will look a little different than the 2014 municipal map.

[mileslunn]

I think the biggest obstacle for the NDP is rather low voter turnout.  PC voters are a lot more motivated to show up so I figure the higher the turnout is, the better the odds are for the NDP while lower turnout should favour PCs.  Looking at where each party is, this would be my advice to them going forward:

Liberals:  You need to come to terms that you are not going to win this election so quit acting like you will.  The goal now is to save the furniture and win as many seats as possible so in 2022 you can return to power as both Ford and Horwath have the strong potential to be one term wonders.  If you get 30 seats, you can return to power next election, but drop to single digits and you are out of the mix.  So find 30 winneable seats and pour all your resources into those.  Focus squarely on policy and platform and forget about Wynne.  In the remaining ridings cut them loose, let the local candidate fight it out as a few may get lucky.  Avoid anymore attacks as you just help your opponent.  Attacks on Ford only help the NDP not you and attacks on the NDP will only help Ford.

PCs:  What was supposed to be an easy win isn't anymore, but the election is still winneable but you need to be smart going forward.  Continue to hammer the similarities between the NDP and Liberals and make it clear to voters that voting NDP is Wynne on steroids.  Make it about issues not leader as your leader is not well liked outside of the hardcore base who will vote PC no matter what.  On policy, most want balanced budgets, lower taxes as opposed to more spending so make it a choice between bigger government and keeping government size under control.  Between now and the next debate, brush Ford up on the issues so he doesn't look like a bumbling fool when responding.  Also have a fully costed platform and talking points.  Once advanced polls open, get as many as your supporters out to them so you have those votes locked up in case some bombshell comes late in the campaign.  Have some of your female and younger candidates featured in the ads including campaign rivals Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney.  You are winning big amongst males and those over 35, but struggling with millennials and females.  You need to do better amongst women to win and also maintain or increase support amongst millennials.

NDP:  You have a lot of momentum and this election is winneable, but up until now you have gotten a relatively free ride.  Now that you threaten both the Liberals and PCs, expect much greater scrutiny of your party's policies.  Make your leader front and centre as unlike other parties it is your leader who is liked and an asset.  Also stay positive and avoid mud slinging and try to make your leader look like a premier in waiting.  If there are jitters towards the end about an NDP government, make clear the plan is responsible not radical.  Really go after millennials and bring as many out to the polls as possible since no matter what public polls show, if millennials don't show up, you will not win, but if they do there is a possibility.

[MaxQue]

For the NDP, I would warn against going too moderate, too, given what happened to Mulcair.

[Krago]

I agree, I think the Liberals will receive something like a Rae '95 vote share.

1995 Ontario Election

PC - 44.8% - 82 seats
Lib - 31.1% - 30
NDP - 20.6% - 17
Oth - 3.5% - 1

[mileslunn]

For the NDP, I would warn against going too moderate, too, given what happened to Mulcair.

It is a fine balance, but more you don't want business community flooding the internet with ads in the final days.  Otherwise stay on the left, but be Bernie Sanders type left wing not Jeremy Corbyn style.

[DC Al Fine]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

[mileslunn]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.