Ontario 2018 election

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Worse: it would cause a stampede of soft support to parties that have not conceded. People don't like to feel their vote is wasted...

[King of Kensington]

How would an NDP path to victory today look compared to 1990?  I think there were a few factors in 1990 (where they got a majority with 38%) that make things a bit more tricky:

- The NDP absolutely dominated the "populist" vote:  People were angry at the arrogance of the Peterson Liberals and the NDP was the overwhelming beneficiary.  The PCs (Harris first time out) were too weakened by their own disastrous defeat in 1987 where they ended up the third party and were also tainted by Mulroney's unpopularity.  

- Vote-splitting on the right:  Rightwing smaller parties (Family Coalition and Confederation of Regions) did very well - over 10% in some ridings.  These helped the NDP win several rural seats, and probably gave them an extra 9 seats overall.

- The Liberals were more clearly the "center party":  To most right of center voters the NDP and Liberals today are basically indistinguishable.  The differences between the NDP and Liberals were wider then and it seems that a sizable number of people did vote Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Virtually nobody is going to be doing that this time.

- The role of 905:  The 905 was a lot less important in terms of seats then.  I don't think anyone really thought of the 905 as a political entity until Harris swept it in '95.  The NDP is likely to do win some seats in Brampton this time (they didn't win seats in Peel at all in '95), but overall the greater impact of the 905 makes things harder for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

It is really hard to wrap one's brain around what an NDP majority map would look like. It would involve winning some seats that would seem like huge surprises. This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

I think it will have to entail the Liberal vote tanking a bit more (5-10%) as well as the Tory vote tanking in more populist ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa—Vanier
3. Bay of Quinte
4. Kingston and the Islands
5. Peterborough—Kawartha
6. Durham
7. Oshawa
8. Brampton Centre
9. Brampton East
10. Brampton North
11. Brampton South
12. Brampton West
13. Mississauga—Malton
14. Scarborough Centre
15. Scarborough—Guildwood
16. Scarborough North
17. Scarborough—Rouge Park
18. Scarborough Southwest
19. Don Valley East
20. Beaches—East York
21. Davenport
22. Parkdale—High Park
23. Spadina—Fort York
24. Toronto Centre
25. Toronto—Danforth
26. University—Rosedale
27. Humber River—Black Creek
28. York South—Weston
29. Hamilton Centre
30. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
31. Hamilton Mountain
32. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
33. Niagara Centre
34. Niagara Falls
35. St. Catharines
36. Brantford—Brant
37. Cambridge
38. Guelph
39. Huron—Bruce
40. Kitchener Centre
41. Kitchener South—Hespeler
42. Perth—Wellington
43. Waterloo
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington
45. Essex
46. London—Fanshawe
47. London North Centre
48. London West
49. Sarnia—Lambton
50. Windsor—Tecumseh
51. Windsor West
52. Algoma—Manitoulin
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay
54. Nickel belt
55. Sault Ste. Marie
56. Sudbury
57. Timiskaming—Cochrane
58. Timmins
59. Kenora—Rainy River
60. Kiiwetinoong
61. Thunder Bay—Atikokan
62. Thunder Bay—Superior North
63. Toronto—St. Paul's

[adma]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

[adma]

And honestly, if we're looking at an NDP majority, even Etobicoke North isn't out of the question...

[Holmes]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

It was pretty obvious how the NDP would get a majority in Alberta 2015.

[DC Al Fine]

It is really hard to wrap one's brain around what an NDP majority map would look like. It would involve winning some seats that would seem like huge surprises. This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Well yeah, once you get a decent size lead it doesn't really matter, you'll get your path to victory... but the NDP doesn't have the lead yet, so we'll have to guess about paths to victory until they do.

I think it will have to entail the Liberal vote tanking a bit more (5-10%) as well as the Tory vote tanking in more populist ridings.

This is where I get stuck when plotting out an NDP win. If the Tories own the populist vote compared to 1990, then the NDP need to make up the votes with well off voters in places like St. Paul's, Don Valley and Burlington. I'm not quite sold on that being a serious possibility.

It also might be the Liberals saving grace as they try to hold onto a decent sized caucus. Voters who hate Ford but are afraid of an NDP government might hold their nose for Wynne. Obviously there's been a trend towards the progressive coalition getting more educated and wealthy and the conservative coalition downscaling, but I don't think it's that pronounced yet.

I agree with you: if the NDP are going to win, it will have to involve Ford messing up with populists.

[DC Al Fine]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Exactly. I'm not asking if Wynne is conceding the race. I'm talking about the practicalities of the campaign. Is she spending all of her time in Ottawa and Guelph and central Toronto or is she still doing lots of events in lost causes like Milton and Cambridge? That sort of thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

Yeah, it'd be your classic Canadian Election situation really. Because party loyalty in general is quite weak and confirmed partisan die hards are a pretty small share of the electorate, when there's a really big surge it's usually a case of painting large sections of the map the colour of [insert party here], with the seats that don't fall often being more random than those that do.

[RogueBeaver]

Guess who's taking Bernier's I WUZ ROBBED book slot for November?

[King of Kensington]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

...

Yeah, that really would be the end of the Liberals, with even Vanier and St. Paul's gone.  Obviously a tall order.  But Vanier probably is the #2 potential seat in Ottawa for the NDP, and I do see St. Paul's going NDP if forced to choose, particularly with Ford leading the PCs.

But yeah, this sort of the "dream" scenario for the NDP.

[Krago]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Exactly. I'm not asking if Wynne is conceding the race. I'm talking about the practicalities of the campaign. Is she spending all of her time in Ottawa and Guelph and central Toronto or is she still doing lots of events in lost causes like Milton and Cambridge? That sort of thing.

Does any Liberal today think that having Kathleen Wynne campaign in their riding would help them to get re-elected?

I am coming to the conclusion that Kathleen Wynne is the Nickelback of Ontario politics.  People seem to be gleeful to hate on her, even if she isn't quite as noxious as she's portrayed.

[King of Kensington]

Or Alberta in 2015.

Th Alberta NDP definitely benefitted from vote-splits on their right.

That's not really in the cards this time, so it's really about wiping out the Liberals and hoping that a chunk of those flirting with the PCs end up seeing Ford as no more a champion of the little guy than Hudak was (or for some crazy reason Trillium takes off - a very unlikely scenario!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

...

Yeah, that really would be the end of the Liberals, with even Vanier and St. Paul's gone.  Obviously a tall order.  But Vanier probably is the #2 potential seat in Ottawa for the NDP, and I do see St. Paul's going NDP if forced to choose, particularly with Ford leading the PCs.

But yeah, this sort of the "dream" scenario for the NDP.

Under this scenario, perhaps the Liberals might just hang on to Don Valley West. Not exactly their safest seat, but perhaps their safest seat against an NDP surge in particular.

I added St. Paul's at the end in attempt to think of a final 63rd riding. The riding is fairly progressive leaning, and much of it did go NDP in the past, especially in 1990.

[King of Kensington]

There are different types of affluent ridings.

Don Valley West is affluent in a Vancouver-Quilchena kind of way; St. Paul's is affluent in a Fairview or Point Grey kind of way.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet Research now has daily tracking if you are willing to pay 30 dollars. Also might have some riding polls although their track record on riding is pretty lousy but decent on overall save Calgary municipal election. They are IVR so while cannot comment on the results I am guessing that Forum and Ekos who use similar methodology will have similar numbers.

[DL]

So far we seem to be settling into a PCs low 40s, NDP low 30s and Liberals low 20s scenario (and that is about where Mainstreet has it too) ...for the election to get close at all the PCs have to drop a couple of points to 38% or so and the NDP has to devour more of the Liberal carcass and get them into the teens

[mileslunn]

So far we seem to be settling into a PCs low 40s, NDP low 30s and Liberals low 20s scenario (and that is about where Mainstreet has it too) ...for the election to get close at all the PCs have to drop a couple of points to 38% or so and the NDP has to devour more of the Liberal carcass and get them into the teens

I think millennial turnout is key too. Most polls still show PC's double digits ahead amongst over 35 while tied or slightly behind amongst millennials so if millennials show up en masse NDP win possible, but if not PC's could win a stronger than expected majority. Liberals only hope at retaining opposition is to hope many of their MPP's get a lot of personal votes but that seems unlikely although may help save them from complete obliteration.

[DL]

In 2011 federal election the NDP got 22 seats with 25.8% of the Ontario popular vote and the Liberals got 11 seats with 25.3% of the vote....what do you think happens if the NDP gets - say - 31% and the Liberals get 20%??

[mileslunn]

In 2011 federal election the NDP got 22 seats with 25.8% of the Ontario popular vote and the Liberals got 11 seats with 25.3% of the vote....what do you think happens if the NDP gets - say - 31% and the Liberals get 20%??

I would say NDP then around 35 to 40 seats and Liberals under 5 seats would be my guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

With a 5 point average swing in 2011 from the Libs to the NDP, the Liberals would've lost Scarborough-Guildwood, Markham-Unionville, Kingston to the Cons, and Ottawa-Vanier to the NDP.  They would've been reduced to Ottawa South, Scarborough-Agincourt, Toronto Centre, York West, Etobicoke North and Guelph.

Additionally, the NDP would've only picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Sault Ste. Marie from the Conservatives.

So, the NDP would've only won 25 seats, and the Liberals would've been reduced to just 6.

This kind of proves how hard the map is for the NDP. Outside of the north and core urban areas, they face a difficult ceiling that a small wave would not hit. However, if they get past that ceiling, the dominoes start to fall.

[adma]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

It was pretty obvious how the NDP would get a majority in Alberta 2015.

Not necessarily.  Remember how early projection models showed them behind in seats while ahead in the polls, because they were working from 2012 numbers which were heavily plumped in Edmonton/Lethbridge and barren everywhere else...

[mileslunn]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

It was pretty obvious how the NDP would get a majority in Alberta 2015.

Not necessarily.  Remember how early projection models showed them behind in seats while ahead in the polls, because they were working from 2012 numbers which were heavily plumped in Edmonton/Lethbridge and barren everywhere else...

True, but final polls also showed AB NDP with a 15-20 point lead and when you are more than 5 points ahead you always win the most seats.  In the case of Calgary as well as also most ridings they won in the rest of Alberta were three way splits so if the NDP were only say a few points lower they would have fallen short of a majority as the PCs would have won most of Calgary, Wildrose rest of Alberta, and NDP in Edmonton.

Otherwise if the NDP are leading by double digits, they will win a majority.  But if only tied or a few points behind then I think that is where Hatman's argument more applies.  Otherwise they have risen a lot in votes, but they need to gain another 5-10% before you see a whole wack of seats flipping to them which would deliver government.  Also PCs need to dip in the high 30s too since if over 40% it will be tough to beat them, but with how polarizing Ford is and the fact the party gets into trouble a lot, it certainly could happen.

I think the long weekend and next debate are key.  By Thursday next week, if the NDP is within 5 points of the PCs they have a good shot, but if the PCs are 5-10 points ahead its a long shot and if PCs over 10 points probably too much to overcome.  By contrast if by May 29th (two days after the debate), NDP has a five or more point lead, they will likely win unless they mess up badly.  NDP has the right trend, but they don't have the numbers to win quite yet.  Whether they can get there or not before election day is tough to say, but next week will be crucial.