Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

Another issue is the regional distribution.  While mainstreet is just one pollster, if you look at their last public poll, there is where you see the issues for the NDP.  In Southwestern Ontario, South Central Ontario, and Northern Ontario, NDP already north of 30% and Liberals down in the teens so if their numbers are accurate which is a big if, the Liberals cannot be pushed much lower thus the NDP has to pick up some soft PC voters which is doable but a lot harder.  In Eastern Ontario and the 905 belt, NDP is in second but still a strong split and considering how weak the NDP has been historically there never mind Ipsos numbers it might be tough to breakthrough in either although if they surge far enough ahead, you will see what you saw in Alberta 2015 and Quebec 2011 with them winning in places you never thought were possible.  In the 416, if you look at the post debate poll, NDP now in the lead in Old city, York, and East York (downtown), while PCs ahead in Scarborough, North York, and Etobicoke, Liberals second everywhere but not in the lead in any area.  So NDP numbers look good overall, but as Hatman stated wouldn't net a lot of seats yet.  Now if they continue to rise that will change.

[Linus Van Pelt]

My guess is that the Liberals will not be reduced to 2-3, but will win a few random ethnic ridings in the GTA.

Could be wrong, though, we'll see.

[King of Kensington]

My guess is that the Liberals will not be reduced to 2-3, but will win a few random ethnic ridings in the GTA.

In 2011, the federal Liberals in Ontario were reduced to the "too educated to vote Tory, too rich to vote NDP demographic", university towns and yes, a "few random ethnic ridings in the GTA." 

But yeah, it'll likely be even worse for the Libs if they're 10-15 points behind the NDP unless they're able to concentrate their vote somehow.

[King of Kensington]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

[mileslunn]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

Very possible. I find NDP numbers are pretty consistent there whereas PC and Liberal move around a lot more. The former are mostly your blue collar workers who work in the city while the latter are mostly your 905 suburban commuters. I still give the NDP a slight edge but would not be shocked if NDP gains a bunch of seats but loses this.

Also depending on final numbers you could see multiple NDP ridings fall to the PC's offset by gains from Liberals. Remember last election PC's were only 7.7 points ahead of NDP and depending on which poll you believe they might be further ahead. Now if NDP continues to rise won't happen but let's remember PC's have risen as much as NDP since election it's just for PC's it happened about 2 years ago rather than the last few weeks.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, there's a certain working class conservative "but Hudak went too far" vote that the NDP was able to capitalize on last time, with Oshawa being the most obvious example, but also gave hope for future gains in ridings like Chatham and Sarnia (as was the blowout showings in ridings like Niagara Falls and Essex). The advantage the NDP does have is they hold Oshawa, and they are on the rise - but on the other hand Ford has much more populist appeal than Hudak did.

[mileslunn]

Also if you compare polls vs. Last election below are differences so despite NDP surge they are simply recovering the gap. Below is differences on polls since May 1st, for Ipsos I took the most recent of the two.

Abacus: PC +4; NDP +5
Ekos:  PC +9.8; NDP +1.8
Forum: PC +9; NDP +9
Ipsos: PC +9.1; NDP +10.8
Innovative: PC +7; NDP +5
Mainstreet: PC +11; NDP +4.7
Nanos: PC +9.1; NDP +0.5

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

Kenora-Rainy River is the most likely to flip PC (no incumbent)
London West is another possibility (PC candidate is terrible though)
I think the Tories are also targeting Niagara Falls.
Niagara Centre may flip PC (no incumbent), but it's a long shot.
Timmins is also a dark horse PC flip, and it's similar to the Soo in that it's an urban Northern riding.

[mileslunn]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

Kenora-Rainy River is the most likely to flip PC (no incumbent)
London West is another possibility (PC candidate is terrible though)
I think the Tories are also targeting Niagara Falls.
Niagara Centre may flip PC (no incumbent), but it's a long shot.
Timmins is also a dark horse PC flip, and it's similar to the Soo in that it's an urban Northern riding.

I think Essex will tighten but not flip although it could flip next federal election. My guess is Niagara Falls will be your Welland of 2011 which Tories almost won but fell just short of. Niagara Centre will probably stay NDP as Wainfleet which is strongly Tory was removed thus making it more difficult unless you get strong splits which I doubt you will. Now I think the PC's would have had a shot at the old riding of Welland but loss of Wainfleet makes it a lot harder to win.

[King of Kensington]

Kenora-Rainy River is the most likely to flip PC (no incumbent)
London West is another possibility (PC candidate is terrible though)
I think the Tories are also targeting Niagara Falls.
Niagara Centre may flip PC (no incumbent), but it's a long shot.
Timmins is also a dark horse PC flip, and it's similar to the Soo in that it's an urban Northern riding.

London West is kind of the odd man out though, as it's very un-Fordian. 

Wayne Gates is the kind of person who is good for countering any Fordian populist surge, IMO.

[mileslunn]

Looking at NDP ridings here are my thoughts:

Toronto: Unless OLP has a massive rebound I expect the NDP to hold both and pick up many more.

Oshawa: As mentioned definitely vulnerable

Brampton East: After controversy would be shocked if they lost it, but has large Sikh community who don't always follow general trends.

Hamilton: NDP easily holds all three ridings here.

Niagara Centre: Probably stays NDP, but PC's should put up a decent second.

Niagara Falls: Leans NDP, but both leaders made a visit to it suggesting it is competitive.

Waterloo: If OLP rebounds, PC gain is possible but otherwise should stay NDP.

London-Fanshawe: Easy NDP hold.

London West: Leans NDP, but PC's will probably get around 40 percent provided they don't screw up so a lot will depend on whether OLP rebounds or not.

Windsor: NDP easily holds both while Essex stays NDP but something like 50 percent NDP and 40 percent PC would not shock me.

Northern Ontario: Kenora-Rainy River is the only realistic pick-up. Timmins with Gilles Bisson running there should stay NDP and all others are safe.

[mileslunn]

For PC's at the moment only one, four at most are vulnerable:

Sault Ste. Marie: Leans PC but wouldn't be shocked if NDP wins here.

Scarborough North: NDP pick up possible but part of Ford Nation so expect Ford to outperform a generic PC leader.

Sarnia-Lamton and Chatham-Kent-Leamington: As long as PC's hold their numbers, PC's are probably in the upper 40s, but if they dip into the 30s and NDP stays north of 30 percent these two could be vulnerable.

Besides those four, don't see any others going PC unless polls dramatically change which can never be ruled out.

[adma]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

It was pretty obvious how the NDP would get a majority in Alberta 2015.

Not necessarily.  Remember how early projection models showed them behind in seats while ahead in the polls, because they were working from 2012 numbers which were heavily plumped in Edmonton/Lethbridge and barren everywhere else...

True, but final polls also showed AB NDP with a 15-20 point lead and when you are more than 5 points ahead you always win the most seats. 

Note that I referred specifically and quite deliberately to *early* projection models.  And while the final polls showed a solid lead, it was still a bit of a conundrum as to *which* non-Edmonton/Lethbridge seats were destined to fall, because the 2012 NDP numbers were too anemically marginal for electoral projectionists to work from...

[2952-0-0]

Enough about each specific riding. Today it was alleged that the now replaced PC candidate in Brampton East stole the data of 60,000 highway 407 customers and sold it to 29 PC Party candidates in their nomination battles, for $20K per riding. It was then arranged for international students to cast votes using the stolen identities in the nomination battles.

If at all true, this makes the PC Party an organized criminal group. There's no damn way that a campaign could make a $20K expenditure without the candidate's approval. If the PC Party wins, much of their caucus would be facing serious criminal charges.

Suddenly, PC Party dirty tricks have personally affected everyone who has ever used highway 407. And guess which constituencies are they and their families most concentrated?

[Krago]

Enough about each specific riding. Today it was alleged that the now replaced PC candidate in Brampton East stole the data of 60,000 highway 407 customers and sold it to 29 PC Party candidates in their nomination battles, for $20K per riding. It was then arranged for international students to cast votes using the stolen identities in the nomination battles.

If at all true, this makes the PC Party an organized criminal group. There's no damn way that a campaign could make a $20K expenditure without the candidate's approval. If the PC Party wins, much of their caucus would be facing serious criminal charges.

Suddenly, PC Party dirty tricks have personally affected everyone who has ever used highway 407. And guess which constituencies are they and their families most concentrated?

Something just doesn't smell right about this story.  It's tough enough to keep a conspiracy hidden with just three people; with 29 candidates, families, advisors, hangers-on and hundreds (?) of students, this would remain secret for about an hour and a half.

Also, how did they use the names on the list for a nomination meeting?  Did they forge drivers' licenses with the names and addresses of the hapless 407ers?  Also, membership lists are usually circulated to all the candidates, so that they can contact the riding members.  Did nobody notice all the phony e-mail addresses and phone numbers (or no e-mails at all)?

I would love for this to be true, and to dog Doug Ford for the next three weeks.  But something tells me that no more than a handful of candidates were involved, and this kind of 'inside baseball' story will fade out after the weekend.  Unless, I'm completely wrong.

[2952-0-0]

If the ringleader charged $20,000 per candidate, and paid each international student $200 per vote, then there were a total of 100 students who were bused around to 29 nomination votes. These students wouldn't have any reason to go public, since they're being paid $5800 each, which is good money for a student. And, if there were 100 fake memberships in each constituency affected by the scam, there were a total of 2,900 fake memberships in total.

You'll recall that after Brown was deposed as leader, the party discovered 67,000 fake memberships, so the 407 scam was less than the tip of the iceberg.

Don't forget that Brown's backroom boys are the exact same people who gave us Harper's dirty tricks and law-breaking, so the 407 scam could very well be them being carried away.

[Krago]

But if every penny the candidates paid ($20,000) went directly to the students ($200 x 100), where is the profit?  It would seem like a very dicey, quasi-illegal thing to do without expecting some reward.

Who would organize such a campaign just to gain access to 29 potential Ontario MPPs? (*cough* Putin *cough*)  And how were these 29 people recruited?  Kijiji?

[Krago]

According to the Toronto Star, the Liberal campaign song is “Just Like Fire” by P!nk.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/05/17/ontario-election-campaign-songs-hint-at-messages-leaders-want-to-send.html

The first line of the song is: “I know that I’m running out of time.”

[_]

According to the Toronto Star, the Liberal campaign song is “Just Like Fire” by P!nk.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/05/17/ontario-election-campaign-songs-hint-at-messages-leaders-want-to-send.html

The first line of the song is: “I know that I’m running out of time.”

Whoever picked that has to be a PC/NDP plant

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

From the last poll
PC -3
NDP +3
Liberal -1

[DL]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

Two things to note. That poll was in field May 9-12 so its almost a week old and the past week has seen more and more NDP momentum. Secondly, Innovative's online panel has historically been the LEAST NDP friendly - -ver the past year when other online polls from Ipsos and Campaign would have the NDP at 24 or 25% - Innovative would have them at 19-20%

[_]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

Ok this is getting very interesting.  GO NDP

[mileslunn]

The most recent Innovative poll would give the PCs still 61 seats vs. NDP 42 seats, but if those numbers are try I suspect the NDP will pull ahead.  At the same time it is bizarre in that other polls show the Liberals mainly being hurt by NDP rise while Innovative seems to suggest its mostly PCs not Liberals being hurt.  Obviously when discrepancies in polls, I take the average and more use each poll is possibilities and you should get some variation.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals are spending most of their time trying to save the furniture.