Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

Looks like the discussion on this got taken down.  If put back up I will take this one down.  Anyways Ipsos just came out with another poll (their record isn't great so probably best to take with a grain of salt), but it has the results 39% PC, 32% Liberals, and 22% NDP.  Liberals lead in Northern Ontario (I thought NDP would be ahead but small sample probably) and in the 416, but PCs have a 12 point lead in the 905 belt and are ahead in Central, Eastern, and Southwestern Ontario.  It should be noted in the 2011 federal election the Conservatives also finished ahead in those regions.  http://globalnews.ca/news/3740366/majority-of-ontarians-want-a-change-in-government-in-2018-election-poll/?utm_source=%40globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter

I've noticed two interesting trends.  Amongst males, PCs have a massive lead, but amongst female voters a lot closer so seems to be a fairly wide gender gap.  Likewise amongst age, PCs are in third amongst millennials, only slightly ahead amongst 35-44, but it seems 45+ they have a strong lead flirting with the 50% mark so I think voter turnout could be key.  NDP and Liberals need a strong turnout amongst millennials whereas a low turnout could mean an even bigger swing due to their strength amongst older voters who always vote.  Forum is supposed to come out with a Toronto poll later this week while Mainstreet research with one later this month.

UPDATE:  Here are the crosstabs  https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-vote-2017-09-14  As mentioned large gender gap and also large age gap too.

[mileslunn]

Forum is out with a Toronto poll which is PC 38%, Liberals 30%, and NDP 22%.  While it's still 266 days away so a lot can happen those type of numbers would mean a PC landslide provincewide considering Toronto is generally more Liberal friendly than the rest of the province.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2781/september-provincial-toronto-2017/

[DL]

The poll has the NDP at 23% not 22%. To put things in perspective in the 2014 election the Liberals won every single seat in Toronto with 49% of the vote, now they have collapsed to 30% and at that level they could be totally shellacked dropping seats to the PCs all over Etobicoke and North York and Scarborough while the NDP would likely win back a couple of seats in the downtown areas. The Liberals could be reduced to seats you can count on one hand in very very wealthy highly educated midtown ridings

[mileslunn]

The poll has the NDP at 23% not 22%. To put things in perspective in the 2014 election the Liberals won every single seat in Toronto with 49% of the vote, now they have collapsed to 30% and at that level they could be totally shellacked dropping seats to the PCs all over Etobicoke and North York and Scarborough while the NDP would likely win back a couple of seats in the downtown areas. The Liberals could be reduced to seats you can count on one hand in very very wealthy highly educated midtown ridings

My bad, but same idea.  Just for comparison in 2011 federally in Toronto it was 35% Liberals, 31% Conservatives, and 30% NDP, although the Ipsos poll for 416 is 42% Liberals to 34% PCs while 21% for the NDP so with the Liberal vote being spread fairly evenly a slight uptick could allow them to hold most, but if they remain this low, absolutely they could get obliterated and even the premier could lose her own seat.  The NDP should be able to win some downtown and if things really go well maybe some working class suburbs.  For the PCs, North York, Etobicoke, and Scarborough is likely where they would breakthrough and even the Ipsos poll would probably have them winning some there as they tend to be in the teens downtown so that would mean probably over 40% in many of the suburban parts.  The NDP can get as low as the high teens in Toronto and still win seats whereas PCs need to be above 30% in the city to win seats.

[mileslunn]

Another Campaign research poll which is 38% PC 33% Liberals and 23% NDP so that would give using the simulator 60 seats PCs 43 seats Liberals and 18 seats NDP so PC Minority and possibly a Liberal-NDP coalition although very weak one.  Nonetheless this one oversamples the 416 and the numbers there seem quite high for the PCs compared to provincewide numbers as they show 35% Liberals, 36% PC and 23% NDP.  https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2017/09/13/Progressive-Conservatives-with-5-point-lead-on-Liberals-Andrea-Horwath-most-popular-party-leader

[mileslunn]

Innovative research is out with a poll showing 40% PC, 35% Liberal and 18% NDP so closer the some of the others, but no real change from past months.  Interestingly enough it seems PC numbers are consistent with polls while Liberal and NDP seems to be where the discrepancy is.  http://innovativeresearch.ca/the-pcs-are-more-firmly-in-the-drivers-seat-this-year/#about  Mainstreet Research should come out with one later this week as well or early next week.

[mileslunn]

Another Forum poll out, this one shows Tories well in the lead, NDP second, and Liberals third.  Only in the 416 are the Liberals competitive.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2788/ontario-horserace-september-2017/  It seems a lot of variation between polls on where the Liberals and NDP are, although somewhat less for the PCs who seem to be close to 40% give or take a few percentage points.  I am guessing with Wynne moving leftwards the NDP and Liberals are fighting over the same voter pool so lots of soft voters while for the PCs less cross over thus why their numbers are more stable.  That being said as long as the PCs are over 40% it will be tough for either of the other party's to win.  Their main hope at this point is that either the PCs mess up badly, which they have been known to do, or the undecided voters break heavily for them as if you include undecided voters PCs are down in the 30s not 40s.

[toaster]

I have a feeling Jagmeet's win at the Federal level will help the Ontario NDP provincially in Peel region.  Perhaps his younger brother will run in Brampton East (the redistributed Bramalea Gore Malton)?  I'm not sure where he lives, but it would seem like a sure-win.

[lilTommy]

I have a feeling Jagmeet's win at the Federal level will help the Ontario NDP provincially in Peel region.  Perhaps his younger brother will run in Brampton East (the redistributed Bramalea Gore Malton)?  I'm not sure where he lives, but it would seem like a sure-win.

Gurratan Singh, also a lawyer. He has co-chair his brothers campaigns so maybe a jump into politics isn't that far of a stretch.
Another possible name is Gurpreet Dhillon; currently a Brampton city Councillor and ran for the ONDP in Brampton-Springdale in 2014, pretty high profile candidate if he chose to run in the new Brampton East. I think there is only some small overlap with redistribution. But Branpton-Springdale is no more replaced mostly by Brampton North and Brampton Centre, the ONDP already has Sara Singh looking to run in Brampton Centre (i'm pretty sure there is no relation at all). 

[mileslunn]

I definitely think Singh could help the NDP in Brampton, I guess the question is does the NDP surge enough to win outright or does it just rise enough to split the votes enough so the PCs come up the middle as the PCs have a solid core of around 30% in Brampton and any gains the NDP makes will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not PCs.  Federally though I think he could do quite well there.  Also Surrey is another place to watch where I think Singh could help the NDP provided the BC NDP's approval ratings don't tank badly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

[adma]

Another possible name is Gurpreet Dhillon; currently a Brampton city Councillor and ran for the ONDP in Brampton-Springdale in 2014, pretty high profile candidate if he chose to run in the new Brampton East. I think there is only some small overlap with redistribution.

However, the overlap is where Dhillon was strongest--basically, the westward extension of Jagmeet Country.  (They don't call Springdale "Singhdale" for nothing.)

[lilTommy]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

No, but that's because most municipal politicians don't want to appear partisan, especially for the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

No, but that's because most municipal politicians don't want to appear partisan, especially for the NDP.

True enough, except those few areas in places like TO where it actually helps sometimes

[toaster]

I definitely think Singh could help the NDP in Brampton, I guess the question is does the NDP surge enough to win outright or does it just rise enough to split the votes enough so the PCs come up the middle as the PCs have a solid core of around 30% in Brampton and any gains the NDP makes will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not PCs.  Federally though I think he could do quite well there.  Also Surrey is another place to watch where I think Singh could help the NDP provided the BC NDP's approval ratings don't tank badly.

These are likely seats that would go PC in the next election (like they went for Harper federally), so even though technically it is a seat from the Liberal party, it's also a way to stop the PC majority.

[mileslunn]

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

[toaster]

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

[Tintrlvr]

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

He ran in Guelph in 2014 also and got nearly 20% there (and almost knocked the PCs into third, did knock the NDP into fourth) then, so clearly he is "a factor," even if he doesn't win.

[toaster]

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

He ran in Guelph in 2014 also and got nearly 20% there (and almost knocked the PCs into third, did knock the NDP into fourth) then, so clearly he is "a factor," even if he doesn't win.

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

[adma]

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

Ah, but consider that once upon a time, Guelph was deemed to be a Red Tory stronghold--and also that in 2015, the federal Green candidate, Gord Miller, had been a two-time PC candidate in Northern Ontario in the 1990s and a "partisan" Mike Harris appointment as provincial Environmental Commissioner.

*That*, in all likelihood, is the sensibility Schreiner's aiming to tap.

[mileslunn]

That assumes most voters are aware of it. I think many just assume the Greens are a left wing environmentalist party even if untrue in Ontario. If he is not in the debate he will get very little scrutiny meaning he might get many votes who don't agree with his views.

[mileslunn]

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

Ah, but consider that once upon a time, Guelph was deemed to be a Red Tory stronghold--and also that in 2015, the federal Green candidate, Gord Miller, had been a two-time PC candidate in Northern Ontario in the 1990s and a "partisan" Mike Harris appointment as provincial Environmental Commissioner.

*That*, in all likelihood, is the sensibility Schreiner's aiming to tap.

The last time the Conservatives won this riding at either level was when it was Guelph-Wellington thus included much of the surrounding rural areas which is some of the strongest Tory turf in Ontario. If the old boundaries were used the PC's would have a much better chance than under the current. Never mind there was a time when not just PC's in Canada but also GOP in US and British Tories used to win university towns (Oxford and Cambridge were once solid Tory ridings whereas now they are lucky if they can get over a quarter of the vote in either) so it seems students being significantly more left wing is more recent even though they've always been more left wing but less monolithic than in the past. When I was in university between 2000 to 2005 plenty of students albeit a minority leaned right whereas now right wing students are a rarity.

[Hatman 🍁]

Guelph and London North Centre are quite similar, as they are university ridings where the Liberals do well thanks to a divided left, but do have that Red Tory history. Kingston is another good example, as is Waterloo. Of course, we all know what happened the last time Waterloo was an open seat.

[DL]

The NDP was a pretty close second to Deb Matthews in LNC last time. They could easily win that seat especially since they are running a popular local city councillor