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« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2017, 10:38:49 am »

Wait, why is Guelph so oddly Green even compared to other places with universities?
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« Reply #51 on: October 31, 2017, 10:17:40 pm »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.
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« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2017, 07:21:41 am »

Wait, why is Guelph so oddly Green even compared to other places with universities?

That's where their leader ran.
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« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2017, 07:24:38 am »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.
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« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2017, 01:48:51 pm »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.

Every time I went to North Bay, I wondered where the people worked. There is no clear industry or major source of employment.
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« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2017, 02:45:01 pm »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.

Every time I went to North Bay, I wondered where the people worked. There is no clear industry or major source of employment.

Used to be trains. And there's NORAD. That's what my grandparents (both New Democrats btw!) were employed in. All of their children got the heck out of the city though. 

Oh, and they also have a university, but not a particularly big one.
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« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2017, 10:04:55 pm »

Keep in mind that had Harris not been the populist-vote-sponging incumbent (and provincial party leader) in 1990, Nipissing could well have gone NDP that year.
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« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2017, 12:12:32 am »

Keep in mind that had Harris not been the populist-vote-sponging incumbent (and provincial party leader) in 1990, Nipissing could well have gone NDP that year.

True enough, although likely would have lost in 1995, as they won a whole whack of ridings they normally don't and in 1995 lost them all.  It did go Liberal in 2003 and 2007 before swinging back to the PCs in 2011 but certainly definitely at least at the provincial level leans to the centre-right.  I've found Algonquin Park and the areas just north of it are sort of the dividing point between the more left wing Northern Ontario and more conservative rural Southern Ontario.  Also the riding lacks a large Francophone and First Nation's population most Northern Ontario ridings have.

In addition if you look at the poll by poll breakdown the PCs tend to do well in areas near the Great Lakes but struggle north of it.  In Algoma-Manitoulin, Nickel Belt, and Kenora-Rainy River, PCs/Conservatives do well in the southern portions but get slaughtered in the northern portions while NDP does best in the northern portions.  Liberals are more evenly spread out and it seems a lot of them are strategic voters either to stop the NDP or PCs.
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« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2017, 11:24:56 pm »

In Kenora-RR's case, it's because the north is largely FN.
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« Reply #59 on: November 28, 2017, 08:41:19 am »

Patrick Brown, leader of the Progressive Conservatives, released a plan that is much more progressive than conservative. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-pc-party-patrick-brown-platform-1.4420959

With all three parties looking to grab the centre-left vote, it's going to be tough for Andrea Horwath without something more drastic (i.e., eliminating funding for catholic schools?  free tuition for all?  etc).
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« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2017, 11:33:11 am »

All the NDP have to do is attack the Liberals for their corruption and arrogance. The platforms don't have to be all that different. Progressives aren't going to vote Tory anyway.
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« Reply #61 on: November 28, 2017, 11:35:45 am »

"Progressives" won't vote Tory, but the challenge for the ONDP is that there is a large chunk of voters who don't label themselves and who just want a change of government. many of those people are currently parked with the PCs and the NDP has to find a way to get those people to see the PCs as unacceptable and to vote NDP instead.
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« Reply #62 on: November 28, 2017, 12:25:54 pm »

Urban Progressives really won't vote PC (Like DT Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa proper, London, Windsor); But Brown is trying to be a softer version of a Conservative to win over the 905 (and Suburban voters around Ottawa) voters who swing OLP-PC.
The ONDP does have to push the Corruption/arrogance button hard, and play the card that the ONDP plans aren't extreme or loony since the OLP is running on ONDP-lite plans. (basically you like what the OLP is doing with min.wage and pharmacare? vote ONDP were not corrupt or arrogant! Tongue )
I do think the ONDP need a few big planks that sets them apart, Electoral reform would be one, Free Tuition maybe, but along with $15min.wage and Pharmacare, the OLP is running on "lite" versions of these already. The ONDP needs to push its Hydro plan, which is public ownership they stand out there, more of that I think (like maybe taking back the 407, etc) also something bolder like bringing Dr.s back into the Public service (no longer treated as independent contractors, as we saw during the tax reforms federally) or massive tax reform (add more tax brackets for greater fair taxation).   
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« Reply #63 on: November 28, 2017, 01:46:03 pm »

How many people in Ontario even know what it means to be an “urban progressive”? In my experience about 90% of voters don’t even know the difference between “right” and “left” in political terms
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« Reply #64 on: November 28, 2017, 04:52:01 pm »

How many people in Ontario even know what it means to be an “urban progressive”? In my experience about 90% of voters don’t even know the difference between “right” and “left” in political terms
I think most people under 35 know the difference.  Think your comment applies much more to baby boomers. 
In terms of "urban progressives", i would hardly describe someone from London or Windsor as an "urban progressive".  Outside of DT-TO (and maybe Glebe-ites of Ottawa-Centre), much more ONDP support is populist and blue-collar.  Kind of more like the traditional Quebec socialist/left-ists with some libertarian in there (Let people do what they want to do..  BUT, you better help us when we need it).  This, of course, doesn't apply to DT Toronto elites who want big government, and want to be able to tell you what to do / what you can buy (and thereby limiting your right to do what you want).
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« Reply #65 on: November 29, 2017, 07:29:55 am »

How many people in Ontario even know what it means to be an “urban progressive”? In my experience about 90% of voters don’t even know the difference between “right” and “left” in political terms
I think most people under 35 know the difference.  Think your comment applies much more to baby boomers. 
In terms of "urban progressives", i would hardly describe someone from London or Windsor as an "urban progressive".  Outside of DT-TO (and maybe Glebe-ites of Ottawa-Centre), much more ONDP support is populist and blue-collar.  Kind of more like the traditional Quebec socialist/left-ists with some libertarian in there (Let people do what they want to do..  BUT, you better help us when we need it).  This, of course, doesn't apply to DT Toronto elites who want big government, and want to be able to tell you what to do / what you can buy (and thereby limiting your right to do what you want).

You know what you said it better, more detailed... the two main types of ONDP groups would be those two I think
-Urban Progressive's/Leftists; your Democratic Socialists, academic/artist, white collar types, Big idea policies, government regulation/ownership, etc. typical of DT TO, Ottawa, but also enclaves in University cities, like Guelph and Kingston and in London and KW.
-Progressive-Populist's; your blue collar, organized labour workers, bread and butter politics type. I would say these people don't care if its big government (don't call it that) as long as it's affordable or lowers the cost. Pocket book policies play here. Then you have Northern Ontario, which falls under this progressive-populist group
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« Reply #66 on: November 29, 2017, 09:44:33 am »


You know what you said it better, more detailed... the two main types of ONDP groups would be those two I think
-Urban Progressive's/Leftists; your Democratic Socialists, academic/artist, white collar types, Big idea policies, government regulation/ownership, etc. typical of DT TO, Ottawa, but also enclaves in University cities, like Guelph and Kingston and in London and KW.
-Progressive-Populist's; your blue collar, organized labour workers, bread and butter politics type. I would say these people don't care if its big government (don't call it that) as long as it's affordable or lowers the cost. Pocket book policies play here. Then you have Northern Ontario, which falls under this progressive-populist group


And group 2 outnumbers group 1 by about a 5 to 1 margin...especially since most people in group 1 talk about voting NDP 364 days a year and then invariably on election day they go poo-poo in their pants and vote Liberal
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« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2017, 09:58:39 am »


You know what you said it better, more detailed... the two main types of ONDP groups would be those two I think
-Urban Progressive's/Leftists; your Democratic Socialists, academic/artist, white collar types, Big idea policies, government regulation/ownership, etc. typical of DT TO, Ottawa, but also enclaves in University cities, like Guelph and Kingston and in London and KW.
-Progressive-Populist's; your blue collar, organized labour workers, bread and butter politics type. I would say these people don't care if its big government (don't call it that) as long as it's affordable or lowers the cost. Pocket book policies play here. Then you have Northern Ontario, which falls under this progressive-populist group


And group 2 outnumbers group 1 by about a 5 to 1 margin...especially since most people in group 1 talk about voting NDP 364 days a year and then invariably on election day they go poo-poo in their pants and vote Liberal
... tell me about it! as someone who is in group 1, and will never vote Liberal, is in incredibly frustrating!
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« Reply #68 on: December 05, 2017, 10:09:23 am »

New poll by Forum shows more crushingly bad news for Kathleen Wynne:

PCs 40% (down 5%)
NDP 26% (up 4%)
OLP 24 (unchanged)
Greens 8% (up 1%)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2811/ontario-horserace-november-2017

Wynne continues to be ridiculously unpopular with 15% approving and 74% disapproving.

Looks like weeks of negative ads aimed at Brown have only succeeded in shifting some votes from PCs to NDP. Also, the unveiling of the PC platform seems to have had no positive effect on Brown's popularity or that of his party.
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« Reply #69 on: December 07, 2017, 05:38:29 am »

So what precisely did Wynne do to become so reviled?
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« Reply #70 on: December 07, 2017, 06:35:25 am »

Arguably she never really got out from under the shadow of McGuinty-era scandals (e.g. the gas plant cancellation, the renewable energy program and commensurate electricity rate hikes). She's also had aspersions cast on her over inside baseball dealings from the Sudbury by-election a couple years ago, though I believe she was exonerated (not that that matters in the court of public opinion).

For the most part, though, the lack of support comes from her being the leader of a party that's been in office for 14 years. Longevity, the accumulation of small and medium sized errors, and her taking unpopular (if unavoidable) decisions on taxes and energy policy are what's behind it all.
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« Reply #71 on: December 07, 2017, 07:32:04 am »

On top of that, I think Wynne is very abrasive and just rubs people the wrong way. She some across as very haughty and condescending and finger waving.
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« Reply #72 on: December 09, 2017, 05:29:01 pm »

On top of that, I think Wynne is very abrasive and just rubs people the wrong way. She some across as very haughty and condescending and finger waving.

Which is all basically code for sexist double standards. Smiley
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« Reply #73 on: December 09, 2017, 09:38:20 pm »

On top of that, I think Wynne is very abrasive and just rubs people the wrong way. She some across as very haughty and condescending and finger waving.

Which is all basically code for sexist double standards. Smiley

Really? I find Wynne haughty, condescending and finger waving and every time i see her on TV its like fingernails on a blackboard...on the other hand I think Andrea Horwath is terrific! How is that sexist?
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« Reply #74 on: December 09, 2017, 10:11:28 pm »

On top of that, I think Wynne is very abrasive and just rubs people the wrong way. She some across as very haughty and condescending and finger waving.

Which is all basically code for sexist double standards. Smiley

I'll agree with what you said, but not in the context of Wynne.
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