Ontario 2018 election

[cp]

Campaign Research puts Liberals ahead

35
34
22

I'm somewhere between dubious and confused by this. Most recent polls put the Tories way ahead, but every once in a while a poll like this comes along that says it's an even race. Is there something going on with the sampling or methodology that could explain this discrepancy?

[Zanas]

Campaign Research puts Liberals ahead

35
34
22

I'm somewhere between dubious and confused by this. Most recent polls put the Tories way ahead, but every once in a while a poll like this comes along that says it's an even race. Is there something going on with the sampling or methodology that could explain this discrepancy?

You know, polls are supposed to show discrepancies between them on such small samples of such a large population. It's when they all show the exact same results that we can be somewhat suspicious.

[Hatman 🍁]

Campaign Research puts Liberals ahead

35
34
22

I'm somewhere between dubious and confused by this. Most recent polls put the Tories way ahead, but every once in a while a poll like this comes along that says it's an even race. Is there something going on with the sampling or methodology that could explain this discrepancy?

opt-in panel junk poll. Throw it in the garbage.

[toaster]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

[136or142]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Mostly wealthy right wing business owners have long run propaganda efforts against lawyers on the basis of ridiculous arguments like this and other arguments.  The funny thing is, virtually all of these same right wing business owners have lawyers on retainer and have no problem being quick to sue others themselves.

[MaxQue]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

[136or142]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

[toaster]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

I'm actually on the left of centre (labour/populist/libertarian left), and support Andrea Horwath's NDP.  It's not a right/left thing.  Union workers in Sudbury or Timmins are of the left, and would likely feel the same way.  Not sure if Patrick Brown would do the same thing, but he also comes off as elitist/establishment.  The only one out of the three that doesn't is Andrea (who is admittedly populist).

[lilTommy]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

I'm actually on the left of centre (labour/populist/libertarian left), and support Andrea Horwath's NDP.  It's not a right/left thing.  Union workers in Sudbury or Timmins are of the left, and would likely feel the same way.  Not sure if Patrick Brown would do the same thing, but he also comes off as elitist/establishment.  The only one out of the three that doesn't is Andrea (who is admittedly populist).

I think that can partially explain why Wynne does better in TO in particular, the brand of NDP here... and let me be specific, Old Toronto-East York, is less populist, more champagne socialist, academia etc. I think Horwath has learnt quite a bit since 2014, by embracing well before the Liberals the $15min.wage, Pharmacare, Transit funding, etc; the ONDP is hoping this will win back lost voters in 2014 and continue with a populist progressive approach that saw the ONDP make gains most elsewhere.
Wynne is detestable in her I've-seen-the-light moment of now embracing these things, it's purely a political attach on the ONDP... where never, ever has the OLP even said good things about these positions (you see federally the Liberals opposed both, ran a campaign against the NDPs $15min.wage)

[mileslunn]

It's fair to assume that Bill 148 is dead as soon as Brown takes office, right?

No the PCs will just slow down the rate.  The minimum wage of $14/hour will not be rolled back, but the $15/hour will be phased in over 4 years instead of just one.  Fairly centrist policy IMHO but considering public opinion at least in Canada (not sure about other countries so much) is leaning leftward tough to say how the public will react to this.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Pre Christmas Ipsos-reed poll; Brown up 8 while the NDP and governing liberals are tied for Second.

PC 36% (-3)
Liberal 28% (-4)
NDP 28% (+6)

Kathleen Wynne approval rating is just 26% in this poll.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-pcs-hanging-on-lead

[lilTommy]

Pre Christmas Ipsos-reed poll; Brown up 8 while the NDP and governing liberals are tied for Second.

PC 36% (-3)
Liberal 28% (-4)
NDP 28% (+6)

Kathleen Wynne approval rating is just 26% in this poll.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-pcs-hanging-on-lead

Really good numbers for the NDP, PCs below 40 means minority. Some more key numbers is:
- in the 416, PCs (32%), Liberals (31%) and NDP (30%); that is bad news for the Liberals, in order to hold seats here they needed a weak NDP, and these look like Fed2011 numbers.
- in the 905, Liberals (34%) and PCs (32%) are statistically tied, NDP (24%) strategically competitive (Oshawa and Brampton only is my guess)
- Southwest, PCs (36%) are ahead of the NDP (31%), The NDP can use the momentum down here, if the Liberals continue to fall here (23%) and the NDP can chip some PC support, this will mean shifts in seats to the NDP (likely OLP seats like London NC, Brantford-Brant)

- (81%) of Ontarians believe it is time for another party to take over at Queen's Park; very bad news for the Liberals, yet still 28% support?, the OLP is much more resilient then Wynne is (some federally spill over maybe? the "Liberal" brand in general being strong)
- Horwath still sitting as best premier (41%) and Brown  (37%) not far behind

[toaster]

The other thing with the NDP being at 28% (and tied for second) is that when people see that, they feel more like they aren't wasting their vote on the NDP, which could push them up further.  Do those 905 numbers include Hamilton?  Or is Hamilton included in the South-West?  If those 905 numbers don't include Hamilton, that is very high for the NDP in the 905.

[adma]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

[toaster]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

[lilTommy]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

The only Other Brampton seat would be the new Brampton North, ever more then Brampton Centre. The northern portion of old Brampton Spingdale, the NDP got 31% in 2014 in this riding, and most of that vote looks to be in the north, west of Dixie. Now it loses some polls north of Sandalwood to Brampton East but gains some polls though. Might be the ONDPs second best target. Especially if the ONDP can convince former candidate and current city Councillor Gurpreet Dhillon to run.
I have this feeling that Andrea/Jagmeet might try to convince Jagmeets brother Gurratan to run in Brampton East (very much cut from the same cloth as his brother). 

[lilTommy]

Looks like Cindy Forster ONDP MPP for Welland won't be running for re-election again this year. Welland, which come this distribution will be back to Niagara Centre (at least if we use the Federal names), losses Wainfleet which was much more PC friendly anyway.An old NDP stronghold, held since 1975 (Welland-Thorold) by the NDP. Don't really see the ONDP losing this riding, but they did lose it federally in 2015, and lose incumbency but won in 2011 after the late Koromos did not run again.

Also, Sarah Campbell NDP MPP for Kenora-Rainy River will also not run again. Held by the NDP since 87 (Rainy River). With Kenoa-Rainy River being divided into two new Ridings, Kiiwetinoong (basically everythign North of Sioux Lookout) and Kenora-Rainy River, these are still lean NDP but Greg Rickford, former Conservative MP is running in Kenora-Rainy River which looks to be the more competative riding for the PCs. Advantage ONDP still but with no incumbent this is a much more competative race, even if the NDP has a "star" candidate, and I think here they can attract one.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Cindy Forster ONDP MPP for Welland won't be running for re-election again this year. Welland, which come this distribution will be back to Niagara Centre (at least if we use the Federal names), losses Wainfleet which was much more PC friendly anyway.An old NDP stronghold, held since 1975 (Welland-Thorold) by the NDP. Don't really see the ONDP losing this riding, but they did lose it federally in 2015, and lose incumbency but won in 2011 after the late Koromos did not run again.

Also, Sarah Campbell NDP MPP for Kenora-Rainy River will also not run again. Held by the NDP since 87 (Rainy River). With Kenoa-Rainy River being divided into two new Ridings, Kiiwetinoong (basically everythign North of Sioux Lookout) and Kenora-Rainy River, these are still lean NDP but Greg Rickford, former Conservative MP is running in Kenora-Rainy River which looks to be the more competative riding for the PCs. Advantage ONDP still but with no incumbent this is a much more competative race, even if the NDP has a "star" candidate, and I think here they can attract one.

Hard to say about Brampton ridings.  Liberals are quite strong with the Indo-Canadian community while Patrick Brown is making inroads so with Singh not running again I think a Liberal or PC pick up of Brampton East is at least plausible.  Looking at the other NDP ridings my thoughts are as follows.

Toronto-Danforth they should hold while Parkdale-High Park leans in their favour but with Wynne tacking leftward and no incumbent could flip to the OLP.  Davenport, York South-Weston, and Beaches-East York are the best chances for pick ups while Humber River-Black Creek, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, and University-Rosedale are more long shot hopes.

In the 905 belt outside of Brampton don't see much potential for pick ups.  Oshawa could be vulnerable as it seems you have the NDP do well in the older parts of the city with a lot of union workers but in the newer parts they tend to be more your 905 suburban commuters who are usually Liberal-PC swing voters so a drop in the Liberal support will probably help the PCs more than NDP.

In the Hamilton-Niagara region, they should hold the three urban Hamilton ridings.  Niagara Falls would probably go PC with generic candidates but with Wayne Gates personal popularity wouldn't be surprised if they hold it.  Niagara Centre may tighten up but still leans NDP  although if you have a scenario of PCs at 45%, Liberals 25% and NDP only 20% I could see the PCs pulling an upset under such scenario but skeptical that will happen.

In Southwestern Ontario, they should hold the three Windsor area ridings as well as London-Fanshawe.  Waterloo with its demographics could go for any of the three parties while London West will probably be a PC-NDP battleground.  As the most affluent of the London ridings, Brown's moderate platform should help them, but off course any bozo eruptions will kill their chances.  London North Centre is definitely ripe for picking up but any of three parties have a chance.  Liberals will almost certainly lose Brantford-Brant and while it will probably go PC, an NDP win if they can get some momentum is possible.  Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton are long shots but if the PCs stay below 40% and NDP cracks the 30% mark they are possibilities.

Northern Ontario, should asides from Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River hold what they have and even those two favour them although it should be a bit tighter as the PCs usually get slaughtered in the parts lopped off while less so in the parts remaining.  Sudbury with the scandal looks good for a pick-up.  Two Thunder Bay ridings on paper look good, but the Liberal MPPs are quite popular however I think Thunder Bay-Atikokan is probably the better of the two.  Sault Ste. Marie could flip NDP, but at this point leans PC.

In Eastern Ontario, Ottawa Centre is their only realistic chance and with the Liberal MPP being quite popular I still think Liberals favoured here.

Now off course if the NDP surges into first place, they will win in a whole whack of ridings we don't expect, but so far that has not happened.  I think the PCs are the party with the best chance to win the most seats, but it is far from certain.  Liberals are on the uptick and not totally out of it, but Wynne's atrocious approval ratings makes me think they are more likely to decline in the polls than go up.  With Brown being unknown to many, campaign will matter and with a good campaign should strengthen their lead while a weak campaign see their numbers fall and likely put a majority out of reach and maybe not even win a plurality.  NDP faces the steepest hill to climb, but if the OLP craters there is a narrow opportunity to win, but it is a very narrow path.

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

[136or142]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

The only Other Brampton seat would be the new Brampton North, ever more then Brampton Centre. The northern portion of old Brampton Spingdale, the NDP got 31% in 2014 in this riding, and most of that vote looks to be in the north, west of Dixie. Now it loses some polls north of Sandalwood to Brampton East but gains some polls though. Might be the ONDPs second best target. Especially if the ONDP can convince former candidate and current city Councillor Gurpreet Dhillon to run.
I have this feeling that Andrea/Jagmeet might try to convince Jagmeets brother Gurratan to run in Brampton East (very much cut from the same cloth as his brother).  

Apparently the riding that contains most of Jagmeet Singh's old riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton is Mississauga-Malton, and the NDP have nominated  television personality and Ontario Black History Society President Nikki Clarke to run there.

The surprise to me looking over the results of the last provincial election is how relatively well the NDP did in rural ridings like Oxford and some of the Eastern Ontario rural ridings (I think the more northern ones)  and how relatively well both the NDP and the Greens did in the 'cottage country' ridings north of Toronto like Huron-Bruce and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

It's hard to see the NDP winning these ridings because they are still Conservative strongholds, but I suppose if the electorate flips to the NDP during the campaign things could get interesting.

Edited:  My bad, Oxford is not in Eastern Ontario, I guess there are two major rural areas: much of Eastern Ontario outside of Ottawa, and parts of South Western Ontario.  There are also rural parts in, I guess, central northern Ontario, and the areas north of Toronto, but I still prefer to refer to that area as' cottage country.'

[adma]

Apparently the riding that contains most of Jagmeet Singh's old riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton is Mississauga-Malton, and the NDP have nominated  television personality and Ontario Black History Society President Nikki Clarke to run there.

Actually, that's not the case--the named components of BGW were roughly equal, and if anything, it was the Gore part--Singh's landslide stronghold--that had the most population/electorate momentum going for it.  Malton was only the southern rump, and one that tends to be a Lib-NDP dead heat if anything.  (Bramalea'd be the heart of Tory strength, were they not so third-place marginalized in 2014.)

[mileslunn]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

[lilTommy]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

The NDP have polled, since November, anywhere from 19% to 28%; so 30-55 seats being competitive is probably accurate based on polling.
This really will depend on the OLP vote; if they tank in TO as they did in 2011 and as they were polled last, the OLP will be third party. When the Liberals sank to 25% in 201 they won 11 seats, but the NDP at 25% won 22 seats. Looking at the OLP seats, they need the 416 and 905; last poll had them statistically tied in both, (strong NDP in 416, weaker in 905) with those numbers Liberals could win only 5-6 seats in TO, PC and NDP could win 8-9 each. I think Durham will go PC more heavily then Peel, but even if the OLP losses half their 905 seats, that leaves them with 12 (Peel, Halton, York, Durham regions i'm counting here, i count 24 OLP seats under the new boundaries, similar to the fed count ON 14 and Fed 15 elections saw very similar Liberal wins).

Also look at leaders, Horwath is the most popular polled, more so then the party; Wynne is the opposite personally performs terrible but the OLP % is hanging on, floor is probably 25% like mentioned.
If Horwath can convince Left Liberals that it is time for a change in governent/leader and less policy (The ONDP and Liberals have similar platforms, on purpose since that's the only way Wynne can win) easily the NDP can break 30%. I think in more populist areas, Southwest and North you have/will see more NDP-PC swings.

I agree, there are OLP seats that could swing either NDP or PC depending on who surges, Brantford-Brant, Cambridge specifically; Scarb. North and Southwest, Bramp. North and East. London NC is much more favourable to the NDP. The above will determine that. If the parties are all around 30% give or take 4 points, this is hard to predict and more local factors like candidates and local big issues will come into play. I'm leaning more and more PC minority.

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

One thing for the NDP is that their support is somewhat concentrated.  So, I could list the specific 55 ridings, but it's basically

1.13 of the Toronto ridings.
2.10 of 10 of the Northern Ontario ridings (I count Parry Sound-Muskoka as 'cottage country' and 'Northumberland' in Eastern Ontario, as what is considered as 'North' in Ontario is already ridiculously 'South' geographically.  
3.6 ridings in the 905 (Oshawa, Durham and 4 in the 'older' Toronto suburbs of Brampton and Mississauga)
4.10 ridings in the region from London to Windsor where the NDP has generally been historically strong,
5.4 ridings in Hamilton,
6.7 ridings in the Kitchener-Waterloo to Niagara region where the NDP has historically been fairly strong,
7.3 smaller city ridings  (Kingston, Peterborough and St Catherines)
8.Brantford-Brant and Ottawa Centre.

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

The NDP have polled, since November, anywhere from 19% to 28%; so 30-55 seats being competitive is probably accurate based on polling.
This really will depend on the OLP vote; if they tank in TO as they did in 2011 and as they were polled last, the OLP will be third party. When the Liberals sank to 25% in 201 they won 11 seats, but the NDP at 25% won 22 seats. Looking at the OLP seats, they need the 416 and 905; last poll had them statistically tied in both, (strong NDP in 416, weaker in 905) with those numbers Liberals could win only 5-6 seats in TO, PC and NDP could win 8-9 each. I think Durham will go PC more heavily then Peel, but even if the OLP losses half their 905 seats, that leaves them with 12 (Peel, Halton, York, Durham regions i'm counting here, i count 24 OLP seats under the new boundaries, similar to the fed count ON 14 and Fed 15 elections saw very similar Liberal wins).

Also look at leaders, Horwath is the most popular polled, more so then the party; Wynne is the opposite personally performs terrible but the OLP % is hanging on, floor is probably 25% like mentioned.
If Horwath can convince Left Liberals that it is time for a change in governent/leader and less policy (The ONDP and Liberals have similar platforms, on purpose since that's the only way Wynne can win) easily the NDP can break 30%. I think in more populist areas, Southwest and North you have/will see more NDP-PC swings.

I agree, there are OLP seats that could swing either NDP or PC depending on who surges, Brantford-Brant, Cambridge specifically; Scarb. North and Southwest, Bramp. North and East. London NC is much more favourable to the NDP. The above will determine that. If the parties are all around 30% give or take 4 points, this is hard to predict and more local factors like candidates and local big issues will come into play. I'm leaning more and more PC minority.

The Halton and I think the Peel region are north of the 905 (or maybe the Northern part of the 905.)  They've historically been conservative (Halton anyway.)  I'd be surprised if the P.Cs didn't win them.  I'd also expect the P.Cs to dominate the Simcoe area if that isn't the Peel region.

It would be an interesting election if the Liberal vote collapses but it's the NDP that surges in ridings like Oxford, the Haliburton area and even Halton.