Ontario 2018 election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:17:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Ontario 2018 election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 97
Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198906 times)
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: January 25, 2018, 08:24:11 AM »

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

I will now accept my accolades.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: January 25, 2018, 08:29:41 AM »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: January 25, 2018, 08:37:36 AM »

One important thing to remember about the PC caucus: it is deeply divided into different factions, and also don't forget, most of the PC candidates are Patrick Brown supporters, so we might see a whole slew of new nomination battles.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: January 25, 2018, 08:45:48 AM »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

2. PC voters tend to absolutely LOATH Kathleen Wynne and polling data i have seen says that by about a 3-1 margin they have the NDP as their second choice not the Liberals...this could actually be a good opportunity for Andrea Horwath

The PCs are going to rush a leader, they have to. I think the smart move is probably Lisa MacLeod, the quash this whole thing and bring in three women as leaders.

I also think this could be a good/bad for the NDP; depending on whom the PC leader is of course. the change vote particularly among women and younger voters will migrate to the NDP. I think this could benefit the NDP in particular in the SW and North, perhaps the 905 as well. In TO, the PC vote is typically wealthier and more conservative, especially fiscally, I think this will sour some voters and decrease the PC vote, but will they migrate to the OLP again? I think there is some Liberal fatigue in TO but... it is Toronto so you never know. I think the new PC leader will determine if the PC vote stabilizes or drops, which will affect the NDP. Also, the PC vote could just stay home, which again benefits the OLP. Right now, the NDP HAS to focus on mobilizing those non-voter progressives, the same one's who came out for Trudeau.
But right now, Horwath is sitting as the best leader with the best brand.
Logged
Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: January 25, 2018, 10:08:31 AM »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.

There is the precedent of the 1988 Manitoba NDP leadership convention, which was held mid-campaign in the worst possible circumstances.

I'm trying to think of cases where a party replaced their leader just a few months prior to an election.  In the U.S., Republican Jon Grunseth was forced out of the 1990 Minnesota gubernatorial election just nine days before voting day due to a sex scandal involving pre-teen girls.  His replacement Arne Carlson defeated Democratic incumbent Rudy Perpich by 50%-47%.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: January 25, 2018, 10:52:09 AM »

There is also the example of Wildrose in Alberta being ditched by Danielle Smith and picking Brian Jean a week before the writ drop
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: January 25, 2018, 06:34:19 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: January 25, 2018, 06:59:43 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Probably a woman is better although Vic Fideli he is moderate and was a popular mayor.  He is not at all like Mike Harris, but certainly a female would help.  I think its early days and tough to know whether this will sink them or not.  The party has a strong organization, but they need to be united and whether the next leader can do that or not, we shall see.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: January 25, 2018, 07:03:45 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

There are plenty of women who would be disastrous choices for the PCs. Does anyone think Kellie Leitch would be at all appealing to anyone? And anyone who has seen Lisa MacLeod in action knows she is a loose cannon with very poor political instincts
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: January 25, 2018, 07:36:41 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: January 25, 2018, 08:19:30 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

There are plenty of women who would be disastrous choices for the PCs. Does anyone think Kellie Leitch would be at all appealing to anyone? And anyone who has seen Lisa MacLeod in action knows she is a loose cannon with very poor political instincts

I mentioned Kellie Leitch as  a joke.  Squinting

More seriously, what about Lisa Raitt?  She was mentioned as a possible candidate when Pat Brown won the leadership.

The best example of a person who became leader just before or during an election and then caught a wave is Ed Schreyer in Manitoba in 1969.
Logged
SJ84
Rookie
**
Posts: 61
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: January 25, 2018, 08:57:30 PM »

Christine Elliott.

Honestly, I think she is the best bet. I like Vic Fedeli but Elliott could be the best person to lead the party.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: January 25, 2018, 09:07:00 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

Followed by losing by a large margin, losing 60% of their seats and sitting 15 years in the opposition?
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: January 25, 2018, 09:59:25 PM »

The fact Vic Fideli comes from the same town as Mike Harris means nothing.  It's silly to assume that where someone comes from implies a certain platform.  Now if he advocates major cuts like Harris did and a similar platform that is a different story off course.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: January 25, 2018, 10:09:36 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: January 26, 2018, 09:20:03 AM »

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: January 26, 2018, 10:25:00 AM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.

I know, I just thought it was funny that there was a very different way for the Tories to interpret 'leader from North Bay' than what you were saying.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: January 26, 2018, 10:34:03 AM »

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

In an ideal world, the new Tory leader would:
a) be a woman to help counteract Brown
b) not be affiliated with a particular faction to help unify the party

Coming from outside caucus might help with criteria b, but Raitt is a Red Tory, as is Lisa MacLeod (I think). Does anyone in caucus fit the bill?
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: January 26, 2018, 11:00:05 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2018, 12:20:45 PM by mileslunn »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 23%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: January 26, 2018, 11:01:56 AM »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

The scandal happened 36 hours ago. It takes a couple of days for scandals to actually affect polling numbers.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: January 26, 2018, 11:37:52 AM »

Agreed that it is too early to say what the full impact will be as polls take time to react.  But I think even if the poll is off it shows the PCs still can win the election if they choose the right candidate, which is off course a big if.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: January 26, 2018, 11:44:42 AM »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

I think it will also depend on the degree (if any) that the P.C caucus knew about these allegations and either sat on their hands or tried to cover them up.  I have no clue what happened, so I'm not trying to suggest anything one way or the other. 
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: January 26, 2018, 11:51:13 AM »

The Forum poll has Ontario NDP support at 23% not 22%
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: January 26, 2018, 12:20:30 PM »

The Forum poll has Ontario NDP support at 23% not 22%

Fixed that was a typo.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: January 26, 2018, 12:41:57 PM »

Vic Fideli is the interim leader.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-progressive-conservatives-interim-leader-patrick-brown-election-1.4505104
Whether there will be a leadership election is uncertain.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 97  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 12 queries.