Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

[136or142]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

[Krago]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

[136or142]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

Works for me.

[136or142]

According to various on Twitter, Doug Ford is considering running for the P.C leadership, and according to Steve Paikin there is already pressure being placed on John Tory to run if Doug Ford runs.  Apparently, several other Progressive Conservatives who are considering running have offered to stand aside and support Tory if Ford runs.

[King of Kensington]

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

No. 

Northern and Southern Ontario are the primary regional divisions in Ontario. 

Eastern Ontario is a subregion of Southern Ontario, as is Southwestern Ontario.  SW Ontario was called Western Ontario for a long time, but it never meant anything in the North.

Central has been used for both lying "in between" north and south and east and west.  It's not as clearly defined.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

Curling is the biggest reason why Northern Ontario should be its own province

[adma]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Broadly and traditionally speaking, "Northern Ontario" is/was anything which, pre-regionalization,  qualified as a "district" as opposed to a "county".  Thus, Parry Sound and Muskoka.  But not Renfrew, Haliburton, etc etc.

[MaxQue]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Broadly and traditionally speaking, "Northern Ontario" is/was anything which, pre-regionalization,  qualified as a "district" as opposed to a "county".  Thus, Parry Sound and Muskoka.  But not Renfrew, Haliburton, etc etc.

Muskoka isn't culturally Northern, through. Parry Sound, we can argue. Powassan is northern, to me.

[Hatman 🍁]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

[mileslunn]

Lots seems to be happening fast and interesting to see how it unfolds.  Anyways each party has a reason to be kicking themselves.

Liberals:  With the PCs falling into disarray, had Wynne resigned last year, they would be in a very good position to capitalize on this, but with Wynne's approvals still rock bottom this still might not be enough for them to win.

PCs:  Had they chosen Christine Elliott instead of Patrick Brown, they would likely have a 20 point lead and be well on their way to a landslide majority.  Instead what should be an easy win is far from a foregone conclusion.

NDP: With Wynne being very unpopular and the PCs in disarray, this should be their time to shine, but with few candidates lined up and the party getting very little attention they haven't seemed to capitalize on the void.  Contrast that with the third place CAQ who are now in the lead and taking advantage of Couillard's unpopularity plus disarray in the PQ.

I am guessing it will take a month or two to see the exact fallout.

[Hatman 🍁]

DOUG FORD IS RUNNING!!!

[mileslunn]

DOUG FORD IS RUNNING!!!

Yeah and will probably hurt the PCs.  If he flames out, damage will be minimal, if he wins or come close may very well cost them the election.  Shows he cares more about himself than the party.  If he truly cared about the party and wanted it to win this June, he would shut up and go away.  Unlike the US, Trump style politics don't sell well north of the border.

[MAINEiac4434]

DOUG FORD IS RUNNING!!!

This is the race that just keeps on giving lmfao.

[mileslunn]

I am thinking the PC executive if they can will comb in details through the constitution and rules and try to find anyway to disqualify Ford as those at the top brass no letting him run would be a disaster for the party.  My understanding is a candidate who has a criminal past or something that is likely to be liable to the party can be refused.  To be premier you need a seat and any candidate has to get green lighted so if he fails to make the qualifications to be green lighted they could disqualify him there.  The problem is disqualifying him would bitterly divide the party which they don't need.  Perhaps if Elliott runs, they can get her to persuade him not to as the Flaherty/Elliott family is close with the Ford family.  Other possibilities is using their own internal polls see how he fairs in a general election and if the numbers that come back show him losing, show it to him and try to convince him its not worth it.  Internal polling is much more detailed and more accurate than public polling so if internal polls put him behind, then it means he likely would lose.

[adma]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

But *traditionally*, Muskoka's been a district (i.e. before it "regionalized" in 1971; and note that it uniquely labelled itself as "District Municipality" rather than "Regional Municipality", a bow to its former political form).  Also, there's a distinct geographical difference from Barrie/Orillia--the Precambrian Shield effectively begins at the Severn River southern border--that bonds it much more with Parry Sound than with Simcoe County; and of course, there's always been a "Parry Sound-Muskoka" riding, which whatever the form of municipal government, automatically assigns it to the "districted" North, even now, nearly half a century since Muskoka was last a district.

The only Torontonians who'd have the fuzzy-wuzzy starting-at-Barrie perception of "Northern Ontario" you describe are the kinds of idiots and dolts who'd have no clue about *any* Ontario political geography beyond the inner GTA.  Which in an era when Google and GPS have largely superceded the official Ontario road map in common usage, is probably a dime-a-dozen circumstance.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Sounds like their is some talk that pc executives might cancel the leadership convention allowing Fedeli to lead the party during the general election. I have a feeling such a move could backfire as some voters will see such a move as anti democratic potentially depressing PC turnout and pushing swing voters into the NDP and or Liberal column.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/furey-pc-insiders-tried-to-keep-ford-out-and-now-hes-storming-the-barricades#comments

[cp]

Sounds like their is some talk that pc executives might cancel the leadership convention allowing Fedeli to lead the party during the general election. I have a feeling such a move could backfire as some voters will see such a move as anti democratic potentially depressing PC turnout and pushing swing voters into the NDP and or Liberal column.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/furey-pc-insiders-tried-to-keep-ford-out-and-now-hes-storming-the-barricades#comments

It would also give the Libs and NDP a withering line of attack to throw at the PCs: You can't run a leadership race, what makes you think you can run a province?

[RogueBeaver]

Fedeli just ruled himself out.

[Krago]

From Tony Clement's twitter feed:

@TonyclementCPC · Jan 28 
In answer to numerous inquiries I’m confirming that I’m staying in federal politics, BUT I’m not disinterested in the health and the success of the Ontario PCs. We need change in Queen’s Park and i will do my part! #onpoli @OntarioPCParty


The question is: how many inquiries did he get from people asking him to run?

My guess is 3.

[DC Al Fine]

Fedeli just ruled himself out.

Well that throws things wide open. Too bad the Tories couldn't have had this worked out last week.

[Krago]

Monte MacNaughton and Lisa MacLeod are also both out.

"Where have you gone, Tim Hudak,
A province turns its lonely eyes to you, woo, woo, woo."

[Hatman 🍁]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

[MaxQue]

What is even wierder is than Fedeli is talking about rot in the party, huge structural issues, financial irregularities and inaccurate memberhsip lists and than fixing the party will be a "massive undertaking".

[Octowakandi]

I'm impressed with Doug Ford being a credible candidate when his only "qualification" is being related to Rob Ford.