Ontario 2018 election

[Holmes]

Lord above, I hate Tony Clement.

[King of Kensington]

https://twitter.com/TheoMoudakis/status/958443216914628608

[Cynthia]

If I were an Ontario resident I would probably abstain if the race ends up being Wynne vs Ford vs Horwath

[136or142]

(Vic) Fedeli just ruled himself out.

My admiration to anybody who gets the reference:

I guess he couldn't alter his lifestyle to fit the fast lane.

[mileslunn]

If I were an Ontario resident I would probably abstain if the race ends up being Wynne vs Ford vs Horwath

I would too and I would do so by declining my ballot.  In Ontario you have the right to actually show up and decline your ballot and that gets recorded.  30,000 Ontarioans did that last election so it is a way of showing your disgust with the choices.  Hopefully the party has enough sense not to choose him and I suspect the brass will do whatever is possible to keep him out, but off course anything is possible.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

I have family from Muskoka, and I visit there once a year or so. Muskoka is very borderline between Central and Northern Ontario. Some could make the argument that it is at the northern fringes of Central Ontario, or that it is the beginning of Northern Ontario. Muskoka is north of the tree line though, which is where the trees go from deciduous to coniferous.

[mileslunn]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

I have family from Muskoka, and I visit there once a year or so. Muskoka is very borderline between Central and Northern Ontario. Some could make the argument that it is at the northern fringes of Central Ontario, or that it is the beginning of Northern Ontario. Muskoka is north of the tree line though, which is where the trees go from deciduous to coniferous.

Politically it is far more Central Ontario than Northern Ontario.  The PCs pretty much always win here while the Liberals usually come in second (In a good election a strong second while a weak second in a bad one) while the NDP is largely irrelevant here.  Go further north and the NDP is quite strong while PCs are quite weak.

[adma]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

[136or142]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

Maybe they're all clearing the decks for John Tory.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/01/30/tory-makes-fun-of-fords-basement-campaign-launch.html

[Jeppe]

Christine Elliot is actively exploring a run too.

[mileslunn]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

And if he campaigns as well as Corbyn that means he will be premier.  Lets remember Corbyn began the campaign 20 points behind while on election night finished only 2 points behind.  That beings said Doug Ford is a loud mouth and a bully so I don't seem him inspiring a lot.  He has his strong core, but if anything he might push some on the fence into the Liberal or NDP camp.  Not saying it is impossible for him to become premier as we've seen enough political shockers that I've learned not to make any hard predictions, but I think him becoming premier is quite unlikely.

[lilTommy]

Second article pumping the Similarity to 1990, from the Globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bob-rae-all-over-again-the-ndp-might-be-a-serious-threat-in-ontario-election/article37799108/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
 - its a pay wall, but mimics the Star article.

"Now, once again, the Ontario Liberals are deeply unpopular and the Conservatives are divided. Once again, the NDP might emerge as the last party standing.
Ms. Horwath has led the NDP since 2009, taking it to two third-place electoral defeats. Most people have no idea what's in the party's platform, but assume it's generally to the left of the Liberals.
On the other hand, Ms. Horwath routinely tops the polls as the most popular leader, just as Mr. Rae did back in the day. She can present herself to Ontario voters as an experienced, capable leader who could be trusted to run the store. If she can overcome voter nervousness over the party's tendency to drive taxes up and growth down, the NDP could emerge as an electable alternative.
Because right now, in Ontario, anything is possible. Even that.""

[Hatman 🍁]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

I have family from Muskoka, and I visit there once a year or so. Muskoka is very borderline between Central and Northern Ontario. Some could make the argument that it is at the northern fringes of Central Ontario, or that it is the beginning of Northern Ontario. Muskoka is north of the tree line though, which is where the trees go from deciduous to coniferous.

Politically it is far more Central Ontario than Northern Ontario.  The PCs pretty much always win here while the Liberals usually come in second (In a good election a strong second while a weak second in a bad one) while the NDP is largely irrelevant here.  Go further north and the NDP is quite strong while PCs are quite weak.

That has more to do with demographics and industry, though. It is more WASPy and the industry is more based on tourism.

[mileslunn]

Second article pumping the Similarity to 1990, from the Globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bob-rae-all-over-again-the-ndp-might-be-a-serious-threat-in-ontario-election/article37799108/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
 - its a pay wall, but mimics the Star article.

"Now, once again, the Ontario Liberals are deeply unpopular and the Conservatives are divided. Once again, the NDP might emerge as the last party standing.
Ms. Horwath has led the NDP since 2009, taking it to two third-place electoral defeats. Most people have no idea what's in the party's platform, but assume it's generally to the left of the Liberals.
On the other hand, Ms. Horwath routinely tops the polls as the most popular leader, just as Mr. Rae did back in the day. She can present herself to Ontario voters as an experienced, capable leader who could be trusted to run the store. If she can overcome voter nervousness over the party's tendency to drive taxes up and growth down, the NDP could emerge as an electable alternative.
Because right now, in Ontario, anything is possible. Even that.""

No doubt the NDP has strong potential here.  While still in a distant third, they are no lower than Jack Layton was at this point going into 2011 or Rachel Notley going into 2015.  That being said all massive NDP surges I've seen have always been in places where they've never formed government, in provinces where they have formed government you don't tend to see as wild a swing.  Now since its been a generation that creates an interesting opportunity.  While many older voters may not want to go NDP, you do have a whole new generation who weren't old enough to vote the last time they formed government as well as people who have moved into the province.  I still think the chances of an NDP government are well under 50%, but they are a heck of a lot better than they were a week ago and the longer the PC turmoil continues the better they will get.

[lilTommy]

Second article pumping the Similarity to 1990, from the Globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bob-rae-all-over-again-the-ndp-might-be-a-serious-threat-in-ontario-election/article37799108/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
 - its a pay wall, but mimics the Star article.

"Now, once again, the Ontario Liberals are deeply unpopular and the Conservatives are divided. Once again, the NDP might emerge as the last party standing.
Ms. Horwath has led the NDP since 2009, taking it to two third-place electoral defeats. Most people have no idea what's in the party's platform, but assume it's generally to the left of the Liberals.
On the other hand, Ms. Horwath routinely tops the polls as the most popular leader, just as Mr. Rae did back in the day. She can present herself to Ontario voters as an experienced, capable leader who could be trusted to run the store. If she can overcome voter nervousness over the party's tendency to drive taxes up and growth down, the NDP could emerge as an electable alternative.
Because right now, in Ontario, anything is possible. Even that.""

No doubt the NDP has strong potential here.  While still in a distant third, they are no lower than Jack Layton was at this point going into 2011 or Rachel Notley going into 2015.  That being said all massive NDP surges I've seen have always been in places where they've never formed government, in provinces where they have formed government you don't tend to see as wild a swing.  Now since its been a generation that creates an interesting opportunity.  While many older voters may not want to go NDP, you do have a whole new generation who weren't old enough to vote the last time they formed government as well as people who have moved into the province.  I still think the chances of an NDP government are well under 50%, but they are a heck of a lot better than they were a week ago and the longer the PC turmoil continues the better they will get.

I think the NDP is always slow burn in Ontario; You could argue that 1919 was an NDP-like government, United Farmers. But it wasn't until 1934 when the CCF almost was the government, but had been pretty much non-existent until that point. Then perpetual 3rd party until 1975 when the NDP moved into Official Opposition. a more stable 20ish seat third party till 1990 when they surprised and formed government.
I think what's interesting now, is that the OLP have presented themselves as almost identical to the NDP, NDP-light except will all their own baggage. which is also different from the Peterson years; but there are still similarities with Liberal scandals and being seen as too close to developers. Some things never change:P

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has another poll out which shows under three different leaders the PCs are in the lead

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post-patrick-brown-poll-certainty-ontario-uncertainty/

Looking through it, Mulroney seems the best choice.  Phillips could work out well but not well known so could go either way.  Ford has a strong base but very polarizing.  My guess is if a moderate person takes over and the PCs fall short of a majority but still win a plurality of seats, Wynne will step down and let them form government whereas if it is led by Ford and they fall short, the NDP and Liberals will gang up to keep him out of office.  That will drive the Ford Nation crazy, but there will probably be less blowback than if they did this with any other leader.

[adma]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

And if he campaigns as well as Corbyn that means he will be premier.  Lets remember Corbyn began the campaign 20 points behind while on election night finished only 2 points behind. 

I *did* have that pundit-defiance in mind when posting that.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has another poll out which shows under three different leaders the PCs are in the lead

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post-patrick-brown-poll-certainty-ontario-uncertainty/

Looking through it, Mulroney seems the best choice.  Phillips could work out well but not well known so could go either way.  Ford has a strong base but very polarizing.  My guess is if a moderate person takes over and the PCs fall short of a majority but still win a plurality of seats, Wynne will step down and let them form government whereas if it is led by Ford and they fall short, the NDP and Liberals will gang up to keep him out of office.  That will drive the Ford Nation crazy, but there will probably be less blowback than if they did this with any other leader.

I would be more hesitant about Mulroney. Political neophytes can be liabilities as leaders.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like it will be Mulroney, Elliott and Ford. Anyone else?

[mileslunn]

Looks like it will be Mulroney, Elliott and Ford. Anyone else?

Maybe Rod Phillips, but that is probably it.  I suspect a lot of Mulroney and Elliott's supporters will rank each other as first and second choice so if Doug Ford doesn't get close to half the votes on the first ballot he is in trouble.  Certainly the Liberals and I suspect the NDP too would most want to run against Doug Ford (has the most skeletons), fear Christine Elliott most, while Caroline Mulroney is a wild card.

[SJ84]

I'm hoping for a Christine Elliott win. I think she is exactly who the Tories need to lead them into the election. That said, Caroline Mulroney is my second choice.

[mileslunn]

I'm hoping for a Christine Elliott win. I think she is exactly who the Tories need to lead them into the election. That said, Caroline Mulroney is my second choice.

same here.  Doug Ford would be a disaster and another example of them snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Mulroney is quite capable, but not tested thus somewhat of a risk.  Elliott not only would likely win, I think with her, I could see the party easily topping 45% and winning over 80 seats.  In fact if she is chosen, I think the premier might even lose her own seat whereas with Ford, Wynne would easily hold her own seat.  Ford would win all the rural ridings which will go PC no matter what, but very risk proposition in the 905 belt, whereas with Elliott, unless she does something stupid or has some scandal (both very unlikely), I could see her sweeping it like Harper did in 2011.

[136or142]

Doug Ford endorsed Christine Elliott the last time she ran (the family friendship thing.)  Any chance he could drop out and endorse her again?  It will be especially helpful to the Progressive Conservatives if Christine Elliott ran unopposed as that would allow them to get on with focusing on the general election long before the leadership convention (which they could probably cancel.)

[mileslunn]

Doug Ford endorsed Christine Elliott the last time she ran (the family friendship thing.)  Any chance he could drop out and endorse her again?  It will be especially helpful to the Progressive Conservatives if Christine Elliott ran unopposed as that would allow them to get on with focusing on the general election long before the leadership convention (which they could probably cancel.)

Would be good, but not so sure.  I suspect though once polling comes out that could change.

[SJ84]

I'm hoping for a Christine Elliott win. I think she is exactly who the Tories need to lead them into the election. That said, Caroline Mulroney is my second choice.

same here.  Doug Ford would be a disaster and another example of them snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Mulroney is quite capable, but not tested thus somewhat of a risk.  Elliott not only would likely win, I think with her, I could see the party easily topping 45% and winning over 80 seats.  In fact if she is chosen, I think the premier might even lose her own seat whereas with Ford, Wynne would easily hold her own seat.  Ford would win all the rural ridings which will go PC no matter what, but very risk proposition in the 905 belt, whereas with Elliott, unless she does something stupid or has some scandal (both very unlikely), I could see her sweeping it like Harper did in 2011.

Ford would help win some seats in GTA areas like Scarborough and Etobicoke BUT... my biggest fear with Ford at the helm the PC's overall image would be tarnished for a long, long time. I also think the People's Guarantee is a fantastic platform for the Tories. I would hate to see Ford muck around with it. With that said, he is going to win the nomination in Etobicoke North and I have no doubt he can win it during the election so even if he loses the leadership, he will still be a MPP.

I think Mulroney is going to do very well but I can't deny that Elliott has a harder path to take to win the leadership. It's not going to surprise if there is a huge push for Mulroney but I'm hoping Elliott and her team have paths to a leadership victory. While I think the Tories can win the election with Mulroney at the helm, I can't help but feel like Elliott would be the absolute best person to lead the party into the election. I can see the Tories winning 70 - 75 seats with Elliott and I can see Mulroney winning 60 - 65 seats.

If Elliott or Mulroney are elected leader, I hope Andrea Horwath and the NDP understand they have a slim chance at winning the election. If I could tell her and her team anything, it would be to make them realize winning the election for them would be a tall order so they should target Toronto Liberal seats that they could win. Basically, try to come in second place so they can be the official opposition party and Horwath can hold onto her position as party leader.