Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198849 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #275 on: February 02, 2018, 06:44:26 AM »

Has Doug been drugtested?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #276 on: February 02, 2018, 08:12:51 AM »

he believes he could win a provincial election. So it's obvious what the answer is. Tongue
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Zyzz
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« Reply #277 on: February 02, 2018, 05:45:44 PM »

Wasn't Doug Ford a cocaine dealer back in the 80's?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #278 on: February 02, 2018, 06:46:34 PM »

Wasn't Doug Ford a cocaine dealer back in the 80's?

He was a hash dealer.  While never proven in the court of law, it is well known and I actually know people who went to the same high school as him around the same time and he was well known and his brother Randy as to whom to buy drugs from.  I could easily see him being rejected in the riding nomination by the party brass as being too big a risk.

At this point its an open race but I would give Caroline Mulroney the slight edge although I think Elliott has a good chance.  I suspect most Ford supporters will put Elliott higher up in rankings than Mulroney and likewise most Mulroney supporters will put Elliott above Ford.  Elliott supporters will be a mix but more will probably go to Mulroney than Ford.  So if he doesn't win the first ballot or have a strong lead, he is done.
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SJ84
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« Reply #279 on: February 02, 2018, 08:14:27 PM »

So it looks like the Ontario PC leadership candidates will be Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Rod Phillips. Anyone want to take a guess who will end up winning the leadership?

For the moment, I'm guessing Elliott but I think Mulroney could have enough push to get her to the top.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #280 on: February 02, 2018, 10:21:08 PM »

So it looks like the Ontario PC leadership candidates will be Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Rod Phillips. Anyone want to take a guess who will end up winning the leadership?

For the moment, I'm guessing Elliott but I think Mulroney could have enough push to get her to the top.

Toss up between Elliott and Mulroney I think.  An outside chance of Doug Ford winning, but I think the cut off of February 16th will be biggest barrier.  A longer contest would have helped him more.  Essentially if he fails to get over 40% on the first ballot, then he is done whereas Mulroney and especially Elliott have plenty of room to grow on the second ballot.  They just have to avoid falling off it.
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adma
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« Reply #281 on: February 02, 2018, 11:44:08 PM »

Wasn't Doug Ford a cocaine dealer back in the 80's?

He was a hash dealer.  While never proven in the court of law, it is well known and I actually know people who went to the same high school as him around the same time and he was well known and his brother Randy as to whom to buy drugs from.  I could easily see him being rejected in the riding nomination by the party brass as being too big a risk.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/
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SJ84
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« Reply #282 on: February 03, 2018, 01:15:59 AM »

So it looks like the Ontario PC leadership candidates will be Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Rod Phillips. Anyone want to take a guess who will end up winning the leadership?

For the moment, I'm guessing Elliott but I think Mulroney could have enough push to get her to the top.

Toss up between Elliott and Mulroney I think.  An outside chance of Doug Ford winning, but I think the cut off of February 16th will be biggest barrier.  A longer contest would have helped him more.  Essentially if he fails to get over 40% on the first ballot, then he is done whereas Mulroney and especially Elliott have plenty of room to grow on the second ballot.  They just have to avoid falling off it.

If Doug Ford stays in the race all the way to March 10th, I wonder if those who will support him would make Christine Elliott their second choice. If Ford doesn’t make it out of the first record and if there is no clear winner, having Elliott be the second choice for most of Ford’s supporters could help push Elliott over the top. Same with anyone who will support Rod Phillips – if his supporters back Elliott as a second choice.

My first choice is Elliott, followed by Caroline Mulroney but if Mulroney does win (Deep down I have a feeling she can run away with the leadership), I won’t lose any sleep over it because I think Mulroney would be a wonderful choice to lead the Tories in the election. However, I think the smartest and safest bet is going with Elliott who would hit the ground running if she wins the leadership.

I also can’t help but think Elliott and her team must see a good path to victory as this is Elliott’s third time running for the leadership. I guess we will see.
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« Reply #283 on: February 03, 2018, 11:58:01 AM »

The odd thing about Etobicoke North is that while it is Ford stomping ground municipally, it is one of the safest Liberal seats (both provincially and federally) in Ontario.  I'm not 100% sure he would win, as a 2 way race would also motivate NDP voters to vote Liberal.  Let's not forget the PCs finished third here the last time around, and they only won during the Mike Harris government by a couple of points over the Liberals.
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« Reply #284 on: February 03, 2018, 03:44:49 PM »

I have a good feeling that Doug Ford could single handily win that riding for the Tories.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #285 on: February 03, 2018, 05:48:23 PM »

Etobicoke North is an interesting one as one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province, but the heart of the Ford Nation.  Certainly if municipal politics is anything to go by, anyone with a Ford surname wins massively here.  So tough to say which way it would go, but if we used MMP or had the US system I am pretty sure the Liberals would win for premier and the party choice in MMP, while Doug Ford would under both win quite handily as the local representative, otherwise this would be a classical split ticket riding. 
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adma
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« Reply #286 on: February 03, 2018, 08:07:31 PM »

If he loses the leadership race *and* is somehow barred from running, I can see Doug Ford endorsing the NDP just to "stick it" to both the Liberals and the "ungrateful" PCs.  (Indeed, were it not for Ford, I can see the NDP grabbing Etobicoke North on anti-Liberal/Jagmeet-Singh-orbit grounds.  Especially if murmurs of a 1990-style pox-on-both-houses wave becomes reality.)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #287 on: February 04, 2018, 01:29:33 PM »

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #288 on: February 04, 2018, 04:30:39 PM »

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

That makes zero sense.  Yes the Liberal vote is more efficient, but if the PCs have more than a 2 point lead they should win a plurality of seats and if they have a 7-8 point lead they will likely win a majority.  The Liberal vote has the Red wall in the GTA so once it crosses a certain threshold they start to fall fast.  In fact if the NDP and Liberals tied for second in votes, the NDP would win more seats.  If you try the federal simulator for just Ontario (the ridings outside the North are the same anyways) you get a better picture.  Unless the PCs are stupid enough to choose Doug Ford, I expect they will perform at least as well as Harper did in each riding and probably higher.  In many ways if you use Harper's numbers in 2015 and Harper's numbers in 2011 (www.electionprediction.org in its 2015 prediction gives the redistributed numbers) that sort of gives you the range in numbers for PC support with 2015 number by their low end and 2011 being their high end.
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SJ84
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« Reply #289 on: February 04, 2018, 04:31:29 PM »

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

It’s definitely a little dodgy in the PC projection numbers. Ridings such as Markham-Stouffville, Sault. Ste. Maire, King-Vaughan and Ajax are more likely going PC in June.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #290 on: February 04, 2018, 06:07:14 PM »

Phillips won't run, endorses Mulroney.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #291 on: February 05, 2018, 06:58:29 AM »

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

It’s definitely a little dodgy in the PC projection numbers. Ridings such as Markham-Stouffville, Sault. Ste. Maire, King-Vaughan and Ajax are more likely going PC in June.

It looks like the model is using the 2014 election as a base without taking into account regional polls (compare the Ontario simulator with the Canada one). The PC's did poorly in the 905 in 2014, so they underperform there in the projection model. This explains why the Liberals are projected to hold a majority of the 905 despite trailing there in the polls. The model is taking those 905 PCers  and using them to project supermajorities in rural southern Ontario.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #292 on: February 05, 2018, 10:56:44 AM »

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

Agreed as every poll I've seen has shown the PCs ahead in the 905 belt meaning they would lose a lot more seats than this is showing.  Also I don't think the PCs will get over 70% in any riding and I think they will probably only crack the 60% mark in a few cases, not as many as this simulator is showing.  Even rural Southern Ontario, the PCs generally have a 40-60% range with 40% as their floor and 60% as their ceiling.  In the 905 belt, things tend to swing a lot more heavily than the province as a whole.  Also downtown Toronto is showing PCs too high as I've found PCs always get in the teens there no matter how they do provincewide.  Otherwise I don't buy the PCs will get 25% in ridings like Spadina-Fort York or University-Rosedale, those are decidedly left wing ridings with most not open to ever voting PC so numbers don't tend to change much in those ridings whereas in the 905 belt and 416 suburbs you have a lot more who maybe didn't vote PC in 2014 but are open to.  Likewise on Sault Ste. Marie, that seems to exclude the by-election and I think there is almost no chance of the Liberals regaining that.  It will likely stay PC, but could possibly flip to the NDP if they gain any momentum.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #293 on: February 11, 2018, 09:03:21 PM »

Now with the leadership race in full swing what is everyone's thought on whom is most likely to win the PC leadership race.  I think it is truly a three way race and any of the three could win it although it will be interesting to see sign up stats as well as geographic distribution for first hints.  Likewise how do people think each would perform in a general election.  My thoughts are as follows:

Elliott: Sort of a consensus candidate so as long as no one wins on the first ballot and she comes in second or higher she would be favoured as I believe the majority of both Mulroney and Ford's second choices would go to her.  In a general election, she is without question the most electable and would probably do better than Brown would.  That being said even though she would be heavily favoured to win the election, nothing is guaranteed these days and a major screw up could even cost her.

Ford:  Has a strong loyal base and is getting lots of sign ups but whether it will be enough, tough to say.  Also geographic distribution is important as signing up a lot in the 416 but few elsewhere won't win you the leadership race.  He should do well on first ballot, but has little room for growth so if he gets above 45% on the first ballot should win it, if under 40% then won't.  In a general election he would be Kathleen Wynne's dream opponent as so much baggage to go after him with.  That being said he does have a loyal base so although he is the most risky choice, I still wouldn't rule him out of winning a general election, but think the odds would be much lower with him than the other two. 

Mulroney: Is definitely the establishment's favourite but not so sure how popular she is amongst the grassroots.  Still has a decent chance at winning, but could be more difficult than it seems on the surface.  In a general election, her weakness is lack of experience so easier to trip up.  She would be bad news for the Liberals (could appeal to many upper middle class professionals Brown and Hudak couldn't) but good news for the NDP (could be a turn off to a lot of blue collar workers as too much of an out of touch elitist).

I think Elliott is bad news for both Howarth and Wynne whereas if you are Wynne, Ford is who you would most want to win while if Howarth it would be Mulroney as I think Ford could have some appeal amongst blue collar workers but would be a huge turn off to the university educated crowd and upper middle class professionals.
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« Reply #294 on: February 12, 2018, 12:21:13 AM »

Should the NDP form a government (almost certainly a minority) they don't have a single lawyer running in a winnable riding so far.  Is there any chance they could recruit Craig Scott to run in Spadina-Fort York.
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SJ84
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« Reply #295 on: February 12, 2018, 02:02:05 AM »

Now with the leadership race in full swing what is everyone's thought on whom is most likely to win the PC leadership race.  I think it is truly a three way race and any of the three could win it although it will be interesting to see sign up stats as well as geographic distribution for first hints.  Likewise how do people think each would perform in a general election.  My thoughts are as follows:

Elliott: Sort of a consensus candidate so as long as no one wins on the first ballot and she comes in second or higher she would be favoured as I believe the majority of both Mulroney and Ford's second choices would go to her.  In a general election, she is without question the most electable and would probably do better than Brown would.  That being said even though she would be heavily favoured to win the election, nothing is guaranteed these days and a major screw up could even cost her.

Ford:  Has a strong loyal base and is getting lots of sign ups but whether it will be enough, tough to say.  Also geographic distribution is important as signing up a lot in the 416 but few elsewhere won't win you the leadership race.  He should do well on first ballot, but has little room for growth so if he gets above 45% on the first ballot should win it, if under 40% then won't.  In a general election he would be Kathleen Wynne's dream opponent as so much baggage to go after him with.  That being said he does have a loyal base so although he is the most risky choice, I still wouldn't rule him out of winning a general election, but think the odds would be much lower with him than the other two. 

Mulroney: Is definitely the establishment's favourite but not so sure how popular she is amongst the grassroots.  Still has a decent chance at winning, but could be more difficult than it seems on the surface.  In a general election, her weakness is lack of experience so easier to trip up.  She would be bad news for the Liberals (could appeal to many upper middle class professionals Brown and Hudak couldn't) but good news for the NDP (could be a turn off to a lot of blue collar workers as too much of an out of touch elitist).

I think Elliott is bad news for both Howarth and Wynne whereas if you are Wynne, Ford is who you would most want to win while if Howarth it would be Mulroney as I think Ford could have some appeal amongst blue collar workers but would be a huge turn off to the university educated crowd and upper middle class professionals.

I think you are correct that if there is no winner on the first ballot (I have a feeling there won’t be), then Christine Elliott’s chances of winning go up. I don’t see the majority of Doug Ford supporters picking Caroline Mulroney as the second choice nor do I see the majority of Mulroney supporters backing Ford. And you are right that it seems the establishment is pushing for Mulroney now but that could backfire. Look at what happened to Elliott in the 2015 leadership race; she was favoured by the PC establishment and Patrick Brown won in a landslide.

That said, it’s hard to predict who will win on March 10th. If I had to make a guess right now, it would be Christine Elliott but who knows. I think Elliott would be the best and safest person to lead the Tories into the June election. We will wait and see who the PC members pick in a few weeks.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #296 on: February 12, 2018, 02:42:24 PM »

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.
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Adam T
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« Reply #297 on: February 12, 2018, 05:00:05 PM »

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.

Forum is the same polling firm that also had the Conservatives in the lead nationally.
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« Reply #298 on: February 12, 2018, 05:48:12 PM »

Why do I suspect their sample did not include any cell phones...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #299 on: February 12, 2018, 05:57:19 PM »

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.

Forum is the same polling firm that also had the Conservatives in the lead nationally.

Agreed, but still even if they are say 10 points off that would favour the PCs (As PCs always do much worse in Toronto than they do provincewide),  FWIW Campaign research is out today and shows a 15 point PC lead with a generic candidate 43% to 28%.  When tested against each of the three candidates, Doug Ford does the worst at 39%, Mulroney at 41% while Elliott the best at 46%.  Agree their record is not great either but at least they show the same trends other pollsters do which is Elliott is the most popular of the PC candidates and Ford is the least popular while Mulroney falls somewhere in between.  Also in the one where the PCs have a 15 point lead provincially, they are trailing in Toronto by 10.
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