Ontario 2018 election

[136or142]

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.

Forum is the same polling firm that also had the Conservatives in the lead nationally.

Agreed, but still even if they are say 10 points off that would favour the PCs (As PCs always do much worse in Toronto than they do provincewide),  FWIW Campaign research is out today and shows a 15 point PC lead with a generic candidate 43% to 28%.  When tested against each of the three candidates, Doug Ford does the worst at 39%, Mulroney at 41% while Elliott the best at 46%.  Agree their record is not great either but at least they show the same trends other pollsters do which is Elliott is the most popular of the PC candidates and Ford is the least popular while Mulroney falls somewhere in between.  Also in the one where the PCs have a 15 point lead provincially, they are trailing in Toronto by 10.

The Campaign Research polls had actually previously be in line with the Innovative Research polls, so this poll being likely more in line with the Forum Poll could be interesting.

[mileslunn]

Also noticed with campaign research they changed the regional weightings of Toronto, reducing it while increasing the rest of Ontario, otherwise bringing it more in line with the real percentage whereas before over half their sample was Toronto proper so maybe that is a big reason for the change as Liberals are always much stronger in Toronto than elsewhere. Still I think the polls that will really be of interest is after they choose the next leader. 

So far looking at things, I think Elliott would have a big lead if chosen and unless she does something really stupid would be the most likely to be premier.  Mulroney would have a slightly smaller lead but still sizeable.  It's really her interviewing and debate skills she needs to improve as she could trip up there, but she has lots of the best campaigners behind her so that should help.  Doug Ford would probably have the smallest lead.  He is the most known and more so in a negative than positive way so has a strong base, but limited appeal amongst the middle of the road voters they need to pick up.

[King of Kensington]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

[Hatman 🍁]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

Well, anything in Ford nation obviously. I'd imagine a lot of ridings in the 905 may be in a similar vein, though without having to live in Toronto, people in the 905 may have less of a populist streak as those in the inner ring of Toronto suburbs.

[Vega]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

Well, anything in Ford nation obviously. I'd imagine a lot of ridings in the 905 may be in a similar vein, though without having to live in Toronto, people in the 905 may have less of a populist streak as those in the inner ring of Toronto suburbs.

What exactly is Ford nation, in geographic terms?

[Hatman 🍁]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

Well, anything in Ford nation obviously. I'd imagine a lot of ridings in the 905 may be in a similar vein, though without having to live in Toronto, people in the 905 may have less of a populist streak as those in the inner ring of Toronto suburbs.

What exactly is Ford nation, in geographic terms?

The blue areas in these maps...

2014:


2010:

[mileslunn]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

I would think Mulroney would do well in North York and the lakeshore ridings in the 905 like Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington as well as suburban Ottawa.  With Ford, obviously the areas he won municipally, but I think the rest of the 905 belt would be more problematic for him as most of the ridings there have above average incomes whereas he tends to do better in lower income areas.  I think ridings like St. Catherines, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Brantford-Brant, Essex, and much of Northern Ontario he would outperform although not necessarily win while underperform in the areas I mentioned Caroline Mulroney would do well in.

Caroline Mulroney would do well in the more affluent areas, while Ford is probably the type who would do best in ridings that are less educated.  In many ways areas with similar demographics to the Obama-Trump counties in the US as well as Labour leave in the UK are probably the type Ford would do well in whereas Mulroney more one's similar to your Romney-Clinton areas (Yes there were many of those but in all the wrong states) and Conservative remain. 

Elliott I think would do well in both as she doesn't appeal to strongly to either campaign, but doesn't offend them the way others would.  I do think being originally from the Durham regional municipality, she would probably sweep that area and outperform due to name recognition.  Might also do well in Northern Ontario as she is the only leader to visit that area. 

In other news Patrick Brown has just been booted from caucus so gets more interesting by the hour.

[King of Kensington]

Most of Peel and probably Woodbridge would likely see Ford do better than the generic PC vote.

[King of Kensington]

John Nunziata - remember him? - says he was retained by a woman who was sexually harrassed by a Liberal Cabinet minister:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/provincial/ontario-liberal-cabinet-minister-sexually-assaulted-woman-lawyer/wcm/3a00feba-477c-41d4-a53a-db39bc49c866?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

[RogueBeaver]

Brown is running.

[DC Al Fine]

Brown is running.

Wtf?

[mileslunn]

Brown is running.

Wtf?

Agree its crazy.  It seems he is letting his own ego outweigh the good of the party.  Doubt he will win and the party might not even let him, but it will just cause more chaos.

[MAINEiac4434]

Brown is running.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brown is running.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most of Peel and probably Woodbridge would likely see Ford do better than the generic PC vote.

Probably Markham too. Looks like Ford Nation is a bit stronger in Agincourt than the rest of Scarborough, so he may appeal to Chinese voters (but not South Asians).

[Holmes]

Brown is running.

Wait...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Brown is running.

Wait...

These guys just don't know when to quit.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Haha, this is wild.

[MaxQue]

This is telling a lot about the current state of Ontario PC than Dog Ford is better than 2 of the other candidates.

[mileslunn]

This is telling a lot about the current state of Ontario PC than Dog Ford is better than 2 of the other candidates.

True enough.  It really seems at times like the PCs enjoy losing.  If they were smart the party would have found a non-polarizing person to replace Brown and gone with them instead of this gong show.  They up until now (I don't know what the next batch of polls will say) had a pretty strong lead in the polls so if handled right could still win, but seem to be doing everything to lose.  I think if Elliott or Mulroney comes out victorious they still have a good shot at winning, but any of the other three and we are likely looking at a minority government of some type.  Wynne is too unpopular to win a majority but could hold a minority.  NDP majority I guess is possible but the type of swing needed would be pretty unusual mind you Ontario now does have some eerily similar things to Alberta 2015, a very unpopular government (Libs in Ontario, PCs in Alberta), and an opposition in disarray (PCs in Ontario, Wildrose in Alberta) so maybe an NDP win is possible, although more likely a minority.

That being said a loss with only a minority might be good for each of the parties.  For PCs at least gives them slightly more time to sort out their mess and would also be a good kick in the head to get their act together as I think a lot are complacent assuming they've got the next election in the bag which they haven't.  For the Liberals it would allow them to dump Wynne and get someone else as Wynne is a huge anchor on the party.  And for the NDP if they don't move up to opposition, they could dump Howarth who while well liked, never seemed to really inspire people as a premier in waiting, at least not yet.

[Pandaguineapig]

I don't see how Brown has a path to victory in the pc election, even if the sexual harassment allegations are fake he still doesn't have a large enough natural base in the party. The so-cons who helped him win in 2015 aren't going to back him again after he knifed them on the sex-ed curriculum

[136or142]

I don't see how Brown has a path to victory in the pc election, even if the sexual harassment allegations are fake he still doesn't have a large enough natural base in the party. The so-cons who helped him win in 2015 aren't going to back him again after he knifed them on the sex-ed curriculum

I think you underestimate the degree to which he has become something of a folk hero to many of these people (and other Trump type non social conservatives) by seemingly standing up to the #metoo movement and standing up to the 'elite insiders' in the P.C Party.

If the P.C Party doesn't block him from running, I'd predict his odds of winning at roughly 50/50.  Don't forget, he did get over 60% of the points in the 2015 leadership race.

[mileslunn]

I don't see how Brown has a path to victory in the pc election, even if the sexual harassment allegations are fake he still doesn't have a large enough natural base in the party. The so-cons who helped him win in 2015 aren't going to back him again after he knifed them on the sex-ed curriculum

I think you underestimate the degree to which he has become something of a folk hero to many of these people (and other Trump type non social conservatives) by seemingly standing up to the #metoo movement and standing up to the 'elite insiders' in the P.C Party.

If the P.C Party doesn't block him from running, I'd predict his odds of winning at roughly 50/50.  Don't forget, he did get over 60% of the points in the 2015 leadership race.

The problem is he relied heavily on the right wing of the party to win last time and many felt he betrayed them.  By contrast the more centrist wing never really warmed up to him even he moved there.  I still think he can win, but he has to do well on the first ballot as I don't see him getting a lot of second choices.  In fact I believe the more candidates that enter the better for Christine Elliott as she is the least polarizing so as long as she doesn't fall off one of the ballots, she has the greatest ability to pick up second choices.  Sort of like Andrew Wilkinson in the BC Liberals, Ed Stelmach in Alberta PCs in 2006, Stephane Dion in 2006 for the federal Liberals, Andrew Scheer for the federal Conservatives, otherwise a compromise candidate who doesn't excite as many as say Mulroney or Ford do, but doesn't anger large swaths like those two do.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm with Panda and Miles on this one. Brown burned his bridges with the socons which leaves irreligious populists as his main target... But why would someone like that first preference Brown when they have Doug Ford as an option? Honestly a 50/50 chance of making it off the first ballot is more than fair oddsmaking if he's allowed to run.

[mileslunn]

FWIW Forum has this poll out today.  I think PC support is a bit inflated mind you I find when parties are leaderless they often poll higher is people picture their ideal candidate as the leader and then once someone is chosen things come down to earth.  Nonetheless like other polls it does show the party does best with Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott while not as well but still ahead with Doug Ford and Patrick Brown.  In particular it appears the former two have greater appeal to female voters than the latter two.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2831/brown-enters-race-2018