Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Go back a few pages, I posted two articles from The Star and I think the Globe&Mail saying just this! shades of 90'.

The NDP has a highly valued/mildly well known candidate in University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell from the transit advocacy group TTCRiders, and has been in place for months; The Toronto Centre NDP race has three candidates from what I can see (two openly gay men, the other a female indigenous candidate), I believe the nomination race is in March. But haven't heard anything about Spadina-Fort York. You can see how they have prioritized them. Lost opportunity in SpFY i think with the weak Han Dong in a riding that could swing with NDP or Liberal.

Another one:

http://albertapolitics.ca/2018/02/andrea-horwath-will-ontarios-next-premier-remember-heard-first-albertans/

From an Alberta perspective/comparison

Main takeaway from this speculation is that campaigns matter. Let the Tories pick their leader, and the campaign start. If Horwath makes some noise, she could definitely win. OTOH this speculation often veers into parallelomania by ignoring factors that contradict the narrative. (E.g. This won't be a snap election like Alberta and the Tories have been out of power for 15 years, not 5 like in 1990)

Agreed, I think Alberta comparison's just won't work (just nice to post!); two very different provinces and history's. Now previous comparison's to 1990 Rae, that makes more sense... but in 2018 the ONDP are STILL living down propaganda and legitimate issues with Rae's government, but the PCs still have the Harris handicap as well.
Horwath is already beginning to launch into campaign mode, but the media is still pretty PC focused. 

[SJ84]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

Do you mean 3rd ballot? I can’t imagine Granic Allen’s supporters pulling her over the edge.

True. 3rd or 4th ballot. Caroline Mulroney could be the king or queen maker if she comes in a distant third. I really hope to see Christine Elliott win.

Anyone else want to make any predictions?

[DC Al Fine]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

Do you mean 3rd ballot? I can’t imagine Granic Allen’s supporters pulling her over the edge.

True. 3rd or 4th ballot. Caroline Mulroney could be the king or queen maker if she comes in a distant third. I really hope to see Christine Elliott win.

Anyone else want to make any predictions?

Sure. A couple guesses:

Ford and Allen overperform, Mulroney and Elliott underperform, but Elliott manages to take it in a squeaker.

[DC Al Fine]

Also the Libertarians seem to have their act together. They have over 70 candidates according to wiki.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well, but I am going to go out on a limb and say Ford defeats Elliott in a close-ish race on the final ballot.

[DC Al Fine]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

[Dipper Josh]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

Id be rather surprised if Browns support doesnt leak to Mulroney, she seems to be that brand of politician and the most likely to play the red tory card.

[mileslunn]

http://angusreid.org/ontario-pc-elliott-mulroney-ford/

Angus-reid out with new poll

PC 50%
Lib 24%
NDP 22%

Shows Christine Elliott and to a lesser extent Mulroney would help but Ford appeals only to the base.  If the PC's lose, this would be blowing one of the biggest leads we've ever seen.  Only time I believe a party blew a similar lead was the NDP in BC in 2013.

[DL]

 Ôte that this Angus Reid poll asks the vote question reading party names only and not mentioning the leaders. From what I have seen the moment you utter the name Wynne, Ontario Liberal support drops another 5 points and the moment you mention Horwath, ontario ndp support goes up

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

Id be rather surprised if Browns support doesnt leak to Mulroney, she seems to be that brand of politician and the most likely to play the red tory card.

That would assume that Patrick Brown's support is "Red Tory", which it is not. And also assumes that Caroline Mulroney is a Red Tory, which she is not.

[DC Al Fine]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

Id be rather surprised if Browns support doesnt leak to Mulroney, she seems to be that brand of politician and the most likely to play the red tory card.

That would assume that Patrick Brown's support is "Red Tory", which it is not. And also assumes that Caroline Mulroney is a Red Tory, which she is not.

Is Red Tory even a meaningful phrase anymore? It seems to be applied to the "I'm fiscally conservative but socially liberal" types, but Red Tory really isn't a synonym for classical liberal. It doesn't seem like a useful term except when applied to a few Maritimers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, very few politicians can be described as "Red Tories" in this polarized climate, but there certainly is a "Red Tory" vote in Ontario, especially with the Liberals moving to the left, it leaves a good opportunity for the Tories to win this group over, and is probably why Patrick Brown moved the party to the centre. This is why Christine Elliot would be the best choice for the PCs (I mean, tbf it's not hard to be better than the other three candidates, really), even though she will likely break with the "People's Guarantee".

[lilTommy]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

[mileslunn]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

Uniform swings tend to only work with minor shifts not massive.  If those numbers are correct I suspect the OLP will probably get in the single digits in many rural ridings where they are pretty universally despised while hold up better in the urban ridings.  That being said Liberals falling to single digits is not impossible.  The level of anger at the Wynne government is eerily similar to what it was towards the NDP government in BC in 2001 and PC government in 1993.  In 1993 few envisioned the PC's only winning 2 seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

Probably a junk poll, but I'll take it!

Also yeah, uniform swing models aren't going to work with huge swings like this.

[brucejoel99]

Just an update but the Ontario Superior Court of Justice has rejected the injunction to extend the Ontario PC leadership voting period, so the race will end as planned w/ the new leader being announced tomorrow afternoon.

[toaster]

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

[DC Al Fine]

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Do they actually have a shot at making some noise in Northern Ontario? (Say >10% in any riding.) Who would they steal votes from?

[DC Al Fine]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

To be fair, the Liberals got 11 seats in Ontario in 2011 on 44-26-25. Their vote is distributed fairly evenly and they lack the regional strongholds that the Tories and NDP do.

It wouldn't be that outrageous for their seat count to be in the single digits on 19% if the vote.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet's final Ontario PC leadership poll.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/elliott-now-leads-ford-still-close/

A majority of Mulroney's vote would go to Elliott while twho thirds of Granic Allen would go to Ford, ending with an Elliott win

[Hatman 🍁]

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Do they actually have a shot at making some noise in Northern Ontario? (Say >10% in any riding.) Who would they steal votes from?

No, of course not. Probably just a small sample size, and a couple of people picking 'other' was weighted up significantly.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Apparently their is a delay in results as lawyers for both Christine Elliott and Doug Ford are locked in a room reviewing what has been described as some sort of technical difficulty. I have also heard reports that results are very very close at the moment. I can't imagine this is what the PC Party wanted to have happen at all.

https://twitter.com/politicsfisher/status/972571130463535104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=CBCQueensPark&original_referer=http://embed.scribblelive.com/Embed/v7.aspx?Id=2757218&ThemeId=30969

[Hatman 🍁]

This is a total shit show.

[_]

Oh lord