Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198851 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #425 on: March 12, 2018, 09:53:56 AM »

Forum is already hot off the mark with a post-Ford poll. They have:

PCs - 44% and projected to win 84 seats
NDP - 27% and projected to win 29 seats
Liberals - 23% and projected to win 11 seats (!!)


http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2835/doug-ford-leadership-march-2018

Change since the last Forum Poll, Feb 23rd:

PC - -2% (46%)
NDP - +3% (24%)
OLP - +2% (21%)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #426 on: March 12, 2018, 10:36:05 AM »

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #427 on: March 12, 2018, 12:04:02 PM »

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.

Unless they all decide to STOP FORD... which sadly is a very real possibility.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #428 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:48 PM »

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.

Unless they all decide to STOP FORD... which sadly is a very real possibility.

If the NDP is still in second place at the beginning of the campaign, and run a decent campaign, then they will vote NDP. It will be like the 2011 federal election.

Those voters aren't following the polls and aren't paying attention yet. They still think voting Liberal is the only way to stop the PCs.
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Krago
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« Reply #429 on: March 12, 2018, 01:24:37 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 04:12:40 PM by Krago »

Dumb question.

I have an Excel file with the 3rd ballot results by electoral district.  Is there a way to upload it to the Gallery, or does that only accept images?

Anyone who wants a copy can send me a private message.
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Krago
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« Reply #430 on: March 12, 2018, 02:21:39 PM »

Elliott needed five more votes per riding to beat Ford.  Or else 157 more votes spread over four ridings (2 Thunder Bay--Superior North, 25 Timmins, 59 Mushkegowuk--James Bay, 71 Kiiwetinoong)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #431 on: March 12, 2018, 04:38:52 PM »

Dumb question.

I have an Excel file with the 3rd ballot results by electoral district.  Is there a way to upload it to the Gallery, or does that only accept images?

Anyone who wants a copy can send me a private message.

Only images, I think.

The third ballot results are floating around the internet, so I've already seen them, but I would be curious to see the first ballot results if anyone has them.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #432 on: March 12, 2018, 04:45:37 PM »

Nevermind, here they are: https://www.ontariopc.ca/riding_by_riding_results
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #433 on: March 12, 2018, 04:48:32 PM »

Huh...so Ford edged out Mulroney in York-Simcoe on the first ballot.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #434 on: March 12, 2018, 04:53:17 PM »

Also, Tanya Granic Allen did best pretty much where I expected she would.
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Hifly
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« Reply #435 on: March 12, 2018, 05:41:15 PM »

Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #436 on: March 12, 2018, 06:10:21 PM »

Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?

St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Kingston for starters.

Ford kind of throws a monkey-wrench into simply transposing the previous numbers though...
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #437 on: March 12, 2018, 08:49:59 PM »

The silly things you read on Twitter:  Apparently Hoskins quit abruptly because he was he was afraid of having to face Christine Elliott in ST. PAUL'S.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #438 on: March 12, 2018, 09:52:11 PM »

Why did Mulroney do the best in Northern Ontario?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #439 on: March 12, 2018, 11:11:14 PM »

Why did Mulroney do the best in Northern Ontario?

Small memberships in those ridings and only candidate to visit there.  Due to distance others didn't bother but with most funds raised she could afford to.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #440 on: March 13, 2018, 06:46:07 AM »

Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?

St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Kingston for starters.

Ford kind of throws a monkey-wrench into simply transposing the previous numbers though...

I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).
I think Guelph, partially due to the distribution of votes between the PCs/NDP/Greens (their leader is running here and in 2014, he polled 20%); Unless the NDP or PCs (this isn't a FordPC type riding) can eat out a Huge chunk of Liberal vote or each others (NDP from Green, or Green from NDP) This is going to be a Liberal riding.
I think there may be some unique MPP/Candidate won over Liberal ridings, won despite being Liberal like Markham-Thornhill in 2011 with MacCallum. So ON2018, Maybe both or one of the Thunder Bay ridings remains Liberal. From what I know Mauro and Gravelle are both personally popular.
St. Catharines; Jim Bradley has been the MPP since 1977 for the Liberals, holding on during the Rae and Harris sweeps so I think he might win on his personal popularity alone... he'd win as an Indie I think even.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #441 on: March 13, 2018, 07:51:33 AM »

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.
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DL
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« Reply #442 on: March 13, 2018, 10:41:55 AM »

Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?

St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Kingston for starters.

Ford kind of throws a monkey-wrench into simply transposing the previous numbers though...

Don't be too sure about the Liberals holding on to Kingston. In 2014 they only beat the NDP 42% to 30% and with Liberal support down by about 15% across the province (i.e. from 39% to 24% or so), on a uniform swing Kingston would be an easy NDP pickup.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #443 on: March 13, 2018, 12:21:43 PM »

The NDP would only win Kingston if they won the election. It's one of those seats that stayed Liberal during the 2011 wave despite the lack of an incumbent.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #444 on: March 13, 2018, 12:22:15 PM »

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.

Brampton has a large Sikh community and often they tend to go whichever way the community leaders do.  I will admit I've never fully understood the dynamics of Sikh politics other than compared to most immigrant groups they are very active and you win their support you can win big.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #445 on: March 13, 2018, 01:08:54 PM »

The NDP would only win Kingston if they won the election. It's one of those seats that stayed Liberal during the 2011 wave despite the lack of an incumbent.

Great example of a fool's gold riding. See also Ottawa South for the Tories.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #446 on: March 13, 2018, 02:45:25 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 02:49:00 PM by King of Kensington »

I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).

Agreed, Agincourt would certainly be one of the Toronto first seats to fall to the PCs.  The federal Tories were able to get 40% in a by-election with the unknown Andrew Scheer leading them and Justin Trudeau being far more popular Kathleen Wynne leading them.  And Doug Ford is quite popular in the Chinese community.

On the other hand, I feel pretty confident saying that Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence will stick with the Liberals. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #447 on: March 13, 2018, 03:27:41 PM »

Not sure why Mulroney won that random riding in Brampton or why she did so well in the southwest. Her two riding wins in the Ottawa area make sense, I guess.

Brampton has a large Sikh community and often they tend to go whichever way the community leaders do.  I will admit I've never fully understood the dynamics of Sikh politics other than compared to most immigrant groups they are very active and you win their support you can win big.

She won Brampton South, more Sikhs live in Brampton East, which Elliott won and Mulroney only won 16%.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #448 on: March 14, 2018, 09:53:26 AM »

I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).

Agreed, Agincourt would certainly be one of the Toronto first seats to fall to the PCs.  The federal Tories were able to get 40% in a by-election with the unknown Andrew Scheer leading them and Justin Trudeau being far more popular Kathleen Wynne leading them.  And Doug Ford is quite popular in the Chinese community.

On the other hand, I feel pretty confident saying that Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence will stick with the Liberals. 

PC candidate is not a well known, and Colle is running again, I think Eglinton-Lawrence, will be close, but yes held on Colle populatiry. Don Valley West, yesh, Wynne being so personally un-popular and much of the opposition to Sex-ed coming from here, from Flemingdon and Thorncliffe. We've seen Premiers lose seats, like Peterson in 90. I'm not sold Wynne can win (pardon the pun)

The forum poll was mapped on the News last night; the OLP held on the University-Rosedale, Spadina-Fort York and Toronto Centre only. I don't see that; Toronto Centre, the Liberals have no candidate yet, PCs and NDP have candidates, the NDP is highly active on the ground already... but if the Liberals have a big candidate, could stay Liberal. The NDP has higher profile candidates in University-Rosedale with TTCRiders advocate Jessica Bell and Spadina-Fort York where School Trustee Chris Glover will be the NDP candidate against back-bench low profile Han Dong.
The NDP were polled to pick up - Beaches-East York, York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek. PCs won everything else (I find it hard to believe Davenport would go anything but NDP or Liberal, and as mentioned St. Paul's will be Liberal).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #449 on: March 14, 2018, 10:37:08 AM »

Obviously Forum's seat model is a bit off. With those 416 numbers, York West should easily go to the PCs, it's deep in the heart of Fordnation.
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