Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, I should probably develop a model using the 2014 mayoral results.

[lilTommy]

Obviously Forum's seat model is a bit off. With those 416 numbers, York West should easily go to the PCs, it's deep in the heart of Fordnation.

Sadly I think Ford's entry has really hurt the NDP in Humber River-Black Creek and Etobicoke North. The NDP polled second in both and very strong here 39% in 2014 in York West (now HUmber River-Black Creek) and a solid 26% in Etobicoke North.

[Hatman 🍁]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.

[mileslunn]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.

I heard Mammioliti might run for the PC's now that Ford is leader as he was a big Ford backer.

[SJ84]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.

I heard Mammioliti might run for the PC's now that Ford is leader as he was a big Ford backer.

There are only 2 places where Mammioliti can run for the Tories - Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough Centre. Every Etibocoke and mid-town riding have candidates in place.

[Krago]

Interesting question: how many Brown-era PC candidates will quit (voluntarily or otherwise) now that Ford is Leader?

[King of Kensington]

Is Christine Elliott STILL talking about a St. Paul's run?  Even if she had been the leader, that would be a bigger risk than John Tory's DVW run in 2007.

ETA:  I suppose if she wants to be a loyal soldier but not actually have to serve under Ford, that makes sense.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting question: how many Brown-era PC candidates will quit (voluntarily or otherwise) now that Ford is Leader?

I read that he personally appointed about 60 candidates.  It seems like there's some room there for Ford to "clean house."

[DC Al Fine]

Also, Tanya Granic Allen did best pretty much where I expected she would.

I was pleasantly surprised with her result, but OTOH Trost and Lemieux combined for 20% on the first ballot in Ontario in 2017, so I guess her result wasn't that surprising (and maybe even a little disappointing).

[King of Kensington]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

When making Toronto riding projections how much does weight Ford's municipal vote vs. the past Conservative vote?

[mileslunn]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

When making Toronto riding projections how much does weight Ford's municipal vote vs. the past Conservative vote?

That is the tricky part.  Undoubtedly some from the Ford Nation who never voted PC before will vote for a Doug Ford led PC party, but others will find voting for the PCs a bridge too far.  Some PCs who dislike Doug Ford (probably most actually) will stick with the party as their desire to get rid of Wynne outweighs their misgivings with Ford but some will go elsewhere and considering no 416 riding is a safe PC one that could hurt him in some more educated upper middle class ones like Don Valley West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Eglinton-Lawrence.  On the other hand I could see him doing well in Scarborough.  Humber River-Black Creek and York South-Weston are part of the Ford Nation, but PCs are so weak there that doubt he will win either, but probably will do a lot better vote wise than the party usually does there but still not enough to actually win either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

[MAINEiac4434]

You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

[DC Al Fine]

You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

LOL!

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ford Nation really does intrigue and horrify me in equal measure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh good, we have a pile on of foreign posters who think there is a parallel between the far right of their nation states and the unique brand of right wing populism that is "Fordnation". It's not about nationalism!

It was those same minorities that put Rob Ford into office the first time, and backed his brother last election. Do you think they'd rather vote for a lying, corrupt lesbian? And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 

[King of Kensington]

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

It's probably more of a petty bourgeois and nouveau riche vs. the Bay St. and country club types split.

[King of Kensington]

Latest Ipsos:  PCs 39%, Liberals 32%, NDP 25%

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/global-news-Ontario-vote-poll-March-15-2018

[mileslunn]

And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 

True provincially although federally Doug Ford in 2014 won York South-Weston, Scarborough Southwest, and Scarborough-Rouge River which did go NDP federally in 2011 so if Liberals implode to third place then things could get interesting.

[mileslunn]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh good, we have a pile on of foreign posters who think there is a parallel between the far right of their nation states and the unique brand of right wing populism that is "Fordnation". It's not about nationalism!

It was those same minorities that put Rob Ford into office the first time, and backed his brother last election. Do you think they'd rather vote for a lying, corrupt lesbian? And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 

It's still interesting that far right or not, Ford is going to do well with groups the Liberals should own. It shows a possible way forward for the aging centre right.

[Hatman 🍁]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

It is unfortunate to see Al embarrass himself here. Sounds like he stopped following Ontario politics in the 1990s. It is obvious from the riding results of the leadership race that there are many blue collar PC members, and they were key to electing Doug Ford. 

[DC Al Fine]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

It is unfortunate to see Al embarrass himself here. Sounds like he stopped following Ontario politics in the 1990s. It is obvious from the riding results of the leadership race that there are many blue collar PC members, and they were key to electing Doug Ford. 

Yeah that comment struck me as very... British. There's a reason why Don Valley West and Chatham-Kent-Essex have swapped since the Harris years.