Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

I'd also put Willowdale behind (the North York Centre condo corridor increasingly "moderates" it ahead) and Scarborough's seats ahead in the overall pecking order.

[King of Kensington]

My Toronto list.  I'm counting Scarborough North as PC incumbency.

Most likely PC pickups:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt

Very much in play:

Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
York Centre

Less likely:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Humber River-Black Creek
Willowdale
York South-Weston

Probably not:

Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Definitely not:

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
University-Rosedale

[King of Kensington]

Need to think through the "very much in play" category a bit.  Don Valley North would likely top that list, a few MPPs like Mitzie Hunter and Michael Coteau may get a bit of reasonably popular incumbent advantage.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do the NDP have any chance picking up bobo votes in Toronto, or are they stuck in depressed post-industrial areas and the North (?).

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is in play for the NDP.  It is split between a more "urban progressive" south and working class Italian/Portuguese north. 

Ford actually won the northern half of the riding (Ward 17) municipally, while Ward 18 went to Olivia Chow. 

If Ford pulls away some votes in the north, that helps the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the most likely pickup for the NDP.  Other possibilities include Beaches-East York, York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek, mayyybe Scarborough Southwest.  University-Rosedale also has a lot of very good NDP territory (2/3 that came from Trinity-Spadina) but hits a brick wall in the "Rosedale" part. 

University-Rosedale is in Ford-ian terms "Establishment and Elites" - it includes the intellectual elite in the Annex and the old money elite in Rosedale.   With Ford on the ballot, it's harder for the NDP to win because the the PCs will be weaker in the Rosedale part.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do the NDP have any chance picking up bobo votes in Toronto, or are they stuck in depressed post-industrial areas and the North (?).

It depends on the campaign. If the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals, the bobos will swing over in droves.

[mileslunn]

Any thoughts on seats the NDP or PCs could lose?  Mine are below

PCs:

Most obvious would be Scarborough North and Sault Ste. Marie as they picked both up in by-elections although I can only realistically see the Liberals regaining the former not the latter.  If there is an NDP surge you could see some PC ridings go NDP, but otherwise not many I can think of.  If PCs lose Sault Ste. Marie it will likely be to the NDP, not Liberals.

If NDP gets over 30% and PCs under 40%, then NDP gains

Chatham-Kent-Leamington
Sarnia-Lambton

Theoretical Liberal gains

Thornhill
Whitby
Kitchener-Conestoga
Kanata-Carleton
Nepean
Bay of Quinte

I don't think the Liberals will gain any of these, but these are all ones they were competitive in either federally or last provincial election, but with how unpopular they are now, don't see those flipping, probably won't even be close.  That being said in 2022 the Liberals could win those and perhaps even more if Ford is a real disaster.

Liberal gains from NDP

Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth
Brampton East

In reality I don't think they will gain any of those even if they emerge as the main progressive alternative

Potential PC gains from NDP - see comments in brackets

Brampton East (Highly unlikely unless you get a perfect three way split)

Niagara Centre (Possible as it is an open seat and fairly populist, but still think NDP will hold this)

Niagara Falls (Would probably go PC with a generic candidate but Wayne Gates personal popularity should be enough although I expect this to be tight)

Waterloo (Only if there is a strong vote split as with the two universities cannot see a Ford led PC going higher than the high 30s)

London West (Had Elliott won, I think this would have likely flipped, but being affluent and educated Ford might not come off well here, but still should be close.  London-Fanshawe is probably the best riding in London for him, but NDP too far ahead to flip).

Essex (Pretty sure this will stay NDP due to popularity of local MPP, but with a generic candidate I think the PCs would be favoured here and could flip federally in 2019)

Kenora-Rainy River (Lack of incumbent and boundary changes will make this closer, but still think NDP will come out ahead)

Timmins (This should stay NDP, Gilles Bisson quite popular.  Had he run in Mushegowuk-James Bay, I think this would have been vulernable however).

[mileslunn]

Also noticed some defeated Harper candidates running, here are my thoughts on their chances.

Near certain to win

Daryl Kramp (Hastings-Lennox & Addington)

Likely to win

Parm Gill (Milton)
Paul Calandra (Markham-Stouffville)

Possible win

Susan Truppe (London North Centre)

Possible but unlikely

Greg Rickford (Kenora-Rainy River)

[mileslunn]

Looking at the party leaders I would say in terms of likelihood of winning their seats are as follows

Andrea Howarth (Hamilton Centre) - She may have the toughest road to becoming premier, but there is no chance of her not winning her seat

Doug Ford (Etobicoke North) - This is a tough one as normally his riding is a fairly safe Liberal one and in many ways it is more likely to go NDP than PC, but it is the heart of the Ford Nation and with him being leader I suspect he will probably win it.

Kathleen Wynne (Don Valley West) - Her riding went Tory federally in 2011 so far from a safe one although I think with the choice of Doug Ford as leader it probably improves her chances whereas had Elliott been chosen, I think she would be in grave danger of losing her seat.

Of the PC candidates my rankings in winneability are:

Caroline Mulroney (York-Simcoe) - Very safe riding so should easily win hers.

Christine Elliott (Newmarket-Aurora) - As long as the PCs don't shoot themselves in the foot she should win her riding

Doug Ford (Etobicoke North) - See above but his is far less favourable than the two above

Tanya Granic Allen (Mississauga Centre) - Sort of a bellwether although more favourable than most Mississauga ridings so could go either way.  Not sure if her staunch social conservatism will be an asset or liability.  Generally GTA is more socially liberal than most of the province, but her riding is a heavily ethnic riding and much of the immigrant community are fairly socially conservative.

[toaster]

I'm still not 100% convinced about Etobicoke North being an easy win for the PCs.  It's one of the safest Liberal seats Federally and provincially.  If Wynne can convince Shafiq Qaadri to run again, I think it will be the closest of the 3 leader seats.  The Ford brothers have campaigned for the Conservatives (and PCs) with the local candidate election after election here, and it never seemed to make a difference.  Would be something if the PCs win the election, but Ford loses this seat. You can bet Liberal MP Kirsty Duncan (who got over 60% of the vote in the last federal election in the riding) will be campaigning alongside Qaadri (or the eventual nominee).

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What visible minorities are most attracted to/ turned off Ford Nation?

[DC Al Fine]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

Well, not to mention turnout was much higher in the Toronto election than the provincial election (believe it or not!), so a lot of that Ford nation support is actually from non-voters.

What visible minorities are most attracted to/ turned off Ford Nation?

I'd guess Blacks are the most attracted, followed by East Asians, Hispanics and South Asians the least. But all more so than White Torontonians. Hence why the comparisons with right wing populism in any other country has to stop.

[mileslunn]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

Well, not to mention turnout was much higher in the Toronto election than the provincial election (believe it or not!), so a lot of that Ford nation support is actually from non-voters.

What visible minorities are most attracted to/ turned off Ford Nation?

I'd guess Blacks are the most attracted, followed by East Asians, Hispanics and South Asians the least. But all more so than White Torontonians. Hence why the comparisons with right wing populism in any other country has to stop.

Sounds about right although interestingly enough the Black community is generally the group the Tories tend to be weakest amongst, but agree Ford seems to do well with them.  Chinese generally lean in the conservative direction and it seems are trending that way.  With East Indians mixed bag, but I've found much like in the UK, the Tories do best amongst Hindus, while struggle with Sikhs and Muslims.  I do think Ford gets lots of white Torontonians, particularly groups like the Polish, Italians, and Portuguese as well as your married suburban types.  It's more than downtown types who hate him as well as for the business community he is a big turn off as a lot of them lean right on fiscal issues, but don't tend to like populists.  Amongst Jewish voters he is much weaker than their federal counterparts who have done well amongst them.

Lets also remember a lot of the countries where we have non-white immigrants from have populists leaders.  Duterte in the Philippines and Modi in India could both be described as that, although Ford is quite different than either of those two, but point being populism can work quite well with immigrants if you keep the racism and bigotry out of it, which most populist parties elsewhere haven't been able to do.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rob Ford has said some racist things over the years (ethnic jokes mostly). Not sure about Doug. The important thing is though they are not nationalists, which is what really would turn off minority voters.

Many minorities are pretty anti-political correctness, which means Ford's off colour jokes actually helped him.

[King of Kensington]

With East Indians mixed bag, but I've found much like in the UK, the Tories do best amongst Hindus, while struggle with Sikhs and Muslims.

Yes, and this evident with JT's India trip and accusations of Jagmeet Singh being a secret Kalistani extremist (or at least unwilling to condemn).  The Tories base in the Indian community is the Hindu community, and they pretty much take a pro-Modi government line.  They don't have much to lose among Sikhs and Hindus.  The Liberals are more careful because they don't want to alienate their base in the Sikh community while at the same time exploit Singh's vulnerability there.

[mileslunn]

Wynne is promising free childcare after 2.5 starting in 2020.  The Liberals are sure going on a big spending binge but tough to see how this plays out.  I see the following possibilities:

Liberals:  It might save them, but I suspect a lot will ask why not over the 15 years and many might see this as smacking of desperation.  Never mind with strong growth and low interest rates, the idea of running a deficit will be a tougher sell than in the 2015 election when we had 0% growth as opposed to 3% growth and even then Liberals promised fairly modest deficits.

PCs: Liberals probably hoping to trip them up in either they oppose those or their platform won't add up.  Nonetheless recent polls seem to show people like most of the new programs being brought in, but they also want lower taxes and a balanced budget and if the latter is a higher priority this could favour the PCs, while if the former is a higher priority will be bad news for them.

NDP: This seems to be done to squeeze the NDP out and it might do so, but could have the opposite effect.  With both parties asides from Hydro One running on similar platforms people might decide to go for the real thing instead of the last minute conversion and go for the party who seems genuine vs. the one who seems to be only doing this because of their lousy poll numbers.

Also with how steady the polls are maybe most voters have already made up their mind and nothing will change.  My guess is polls don't change much until the writ is dropped.  From May 9th until end of long weekend, no major changes either but leadership numbers should be watched as those are often good lead indicators.  After the long weekend is when I think you will see some movement as that is when people will start to make up their mind.

[MAINEiac4434]

That's a typical Liberal Campaign Promise. Go left to squeeze the NDP, move back to the center once in Government. Look at Trudeau.

[mileslunn]

That's a typical Liberal Campaign Promise. Go left to squeeze the NDP, move back to the center once in Government. Look at Trudeau.

Actually Trudeau has generally stayed on the left which is why the Tories not NDP are the primary beneficiaries of his follies.  It's true with the Chretien/Martin government they did that and maybe many Red Tories and Blue Liberals expected the same from Trudeau.  McGuinty also did this too while for Wynne the only policy I can think of that I would classify as right wing was the sale of Hydro One and that is perhaps the only area where the NDP and Liberals strongly differ.  You could add beer and wine sales in some grocery stores as being right wing although outside of English Canada that is just standard procedure.  That is the norm throughout Europe, most of the US, and even Quebec so not withstanding protestations from Smokey Warren Thomas in the OPSEU I would hardly describe that as right wing. 

For Trudeau, cannot think of many right wing policies he has brought in.  Sure he broke his promise on electoral reform, but that is not something you can really put as left or right wing as you have supporters and detractors on both sides.  Yes more on left favour switching to PR, but that probably has more to do with it would mean they would win more often and less on the merits of the system.  If we had one left wing party and two right wing parties and the right wing vote usually exceeded 50%, but the left won more often than the right, I suspect it would be the right pushing for PR not left.  After all PR would have helped the right in BC in 1996 and Alberta 2015 and interestingly the left in Alberta is largely mute on the issue.

[mileslunn]

Today is budget day so expect lots of goodies.  This will be the real test when the next batch of polls come out if the Liberals can move the needle.  If this won't change the poll numbers, then pretty much the only thing left for the Liberals is hope the PCs screw up massively.  Will be interesting as their big spending no doubt is a concern for many with the large debt levels, but at the same time turning down popular programs won't exactly be popular either so will probably come down to people's priorities.  Is keeping taxes low and a balanced budget more important than the new programs, which is good news for the PCs, or is more program spending more important which is bad news for the PCs but tough to say whether the NDP or Liberals benefit from this.

[RogueBeaver]

Singh's brother is running in Brampton East.

[mileslunn]

Singh's brother is running in Brampton East.

That will probably ensure they win that seat.  Might help them in Brampton Centre and Brampton North too which are currently pegged as three way races.  Brampton South is likely a PC-Liberal race still and Brampton West favours the Liberals although go PC if they win a landslide and Liberals fall to third place.

[King of Kensington]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?