Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

The NDP has to be careful here two, they have two voting pools: urban/intelligentsia progressives/social democrats and Working class/blue collar/unionized populist/progressives. So Higher corporate taxes (major differentiator from the OLP) is usually a staple in policy as is increasing taxes on the wealthy since both of these groups essentially support this policy. Raising the HST, across the board will not happen. BUT perhaps the ONDP will pull a BCNDP and raise the HST on luxury items (i'd like to see this paired with a decrease on essentials like food, infant products, what used to be the old PST exempt stuff). That could be one way the NDP can run on raising revenues and not turn away their voting pool and potential pool. Hopefully the NDP takes the opportunity to look at BC (and Alberta) to see what's been done there; they can look at a increasing the speculation tax perhaps, and sin tax increases.
I would like to see the party embrace taking back ownership of the 407 as well... and expansion of public assets (more public corporations) but we shall see.

Remember outside of Toronto, especially in SW ontario and the North, the NDP competes primarily against the PCs. These areas is bread-and-butter, pocket book issues that matter.

Buying back 407 might actually be easier than Hydro One.  Most opposed the sale of Hydro One, but the cost of buying back will be large.  I think the government already owns 47%, so if the NDP just promised to buy back another 3% so they own the majority that would be an easy sell as opposed to 53% of shares.  Nationalizing other industries is interesting and not sure whether that would sell well or not.  It worked well for Corbyn in the UK, but hasn't been tried here so tough to say although the danger is much like Rae's Plan to introduce public auto insurance it could bite them if they don't follow through.

On corporate and top income tax rates, the types who care about those would never vote NDP anyways so no real risk other than the amount of money raised will be small.  Also much like with the PCs, NDP's battles will vary depending on region of the province.

416 - Mostly Liberals as their support is strongest in the downtown core, but could get some three way races in the working class suburbs if Liberals crater.

905 - Asides from Oshawa and Brampton, they are pretty weak there, but PCs in Oshawa while three way in Brampton.

Hamilton/Niagara, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario - Agree it is the PCs not Liberals who will be their main challenge. 

Central Ontario - Unlikely to win seats there even if they win outright.

Eastern Ontario - Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands are the only two realistic pick ups, maybe Peterborough-Kawartha if there is a surge but otherwise the party has never done well there even in the 1990 election.

Definitely have to focus on both groups mentioned as it seems Wynne is really going hard after the urban/intelligestia.  But Doug Ford does have strong appeal amongst blue collar workers so the party needs to connect with them or risk Ford much like Trump picking them off.

[mileslunn]

Two big news stories in relation to Doug Ford.

1.  Doug Ford won't let reporters on the campaign bus, but will still stream events and allow questions at campaign events. 

2.  Doug Ford is the only one of the four leaders not attending a debate put on by the Black community, claiming he already has a commitment in Northern Ontario

Both play into the idea this guy is a very risky one and the party wants to avoid him getting much media attention since he has the tendency to say stupid things.  Also the party has no longer committed to a fully costed platform which could make them easier to attack.  At the same time perhaps he is playing classical frontrunner role which is limit the opportunities to do something stupid, so we shall see.  At this point I think any of the three parties has a path to victory although in the case of the Liberals, minority is probably the best case scenario while for NDP chances of a majority are pretty slim although minority somewhat more plausible.  For PCs to early to say if minority or majority is most likely but as long as they don't screw up badly, the most likely outcome is the PCs winning the most seats, but with Ford having high negatives personally a majority is far from assured and certainly losing outright seems more realistic than it did before Brown's downfall.

[mileslunn]

Also three Liberal MPPs confirmed they are not seeking re-election; Michael Chan, Tonda MacCharles, and Grant Crack.  All of them were in vulnerable ridings although not ones they were certain to lose.  Definitely plays to the idea of rats fleeing a sinking ship as we saw a lot of that last provincial election.  Even though some may have personal reasons, the high number resigning doesn't look good, still it is possible to recover.  Christy Clark saw a similarly high number resigning prior to the 2013 election and did manage to come back although come backs like that are unusual.

My thoughts on the five possible ridings (MacCharles and Chan's were split so they had two options).

Michael Chan

Markham-Unionville: Considering that went Tory federally and last election the PCs would have only lost by 3 points, it would have been very tough barring a major PC screwup to hold this one.

Markham-Thornhill: He probably would have run in this one and it did go Liberal federally during the 2011 disaster so somewhat more favourable, but has been trending Tory never mind directly north of wards that voted heavily for Doug Ford so a toss up at the moment.

Tracy MacCharles

Pickering-Uxbridge:  With the inclusion of Uxbridge which is largely rural this would have been far more difficult to hold than under the old boundaries, but still possible if things tighten up but Liberals would need to be within a few points of the Tories provincewide to have a chance here.

Scarborough-Rouge Park: On paper looks fairly safe, but voted heavily for Doug Ford municipally so depends on how much of that vote who normally don't go Tory he could carry over.  Also NDP did well in the 2011 federal election so any NDP surge could flip this one or they could create the splits for the PCs to win.

Grant Crack

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: Traditionally a Liberal stronghold due to its large Francophone population, but also largely rural and Wynne is very unpopular in rural Ontario while NDP for whatever reason has never done well in Eastern Ontario.  It did go Conservative federally from 2006-2015 so I am guessing this will go whichever way the province does so for the Liberals probably their strongest rural riding, but considering how unpopular in rural Ontario, far from safe or even likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Junk poll out by Mainstreet this morning. It seems they haven't learned anything from their Calgary mayoral election fiasco. Massive lead for the Tories among under 35s? Yeah right.

[DL]

Its very weird, Mainstreet uses the same IVR methodology as Forum and yet such vastly different results...but in recent other provincial elections Mainstreet has been quite accurate so I can't figure out why their Ontario numbers seem so crazy

[mileslunn]

Agree the Mainstreet numbers are likely way off.  Mind you it would be interesting to see a third one as I am kind of guessing the real numbers fall somewhere in between Forum and Mainstreet but slightly closer to Forum.  They do both show nonetheless that the budget didn't go over particularly well.

[mileslunn]

I do however think Mainstreet's final numbers on June 5th or 6th will be fairly accurate as asides from Calgary municipal they have a pretty good track record.  But I have seen lots of weird one's in between elections.  Remember the one last year in late April that showed the BC NDP ten points ahead?  Or in 2015 three weeks before the election showed the Tories 8 points ahead.  They do however usually converge with the others in the final week so outside the final week they are interesting but should be taken with a grain of salt.

[mileslunn]

Ekos is now out and it looks like their numbers at least for the PCs are right smack in between Mainstreet and Forum while for Liberals more like Forum and for NDP more like Mainstreet.

PC43%
Lib 29.3%
NDP 20.7%
Green5.2%

Taken between March 20th to April 5th so all post Doug Ford but only partially post budget but looking at the others pre-budget I would venture to guess no major changes over budget.

Interestingly looking at the breakdown it seems there is a strong gender gap with Doug Ford massively ahead amongst males but much more competitive amongst females.  He also leads amongst millennials which is puzzling although millennials do have a tendency to be attracted to populist politics, good example of this was the success of the Five Star Movement amongst millennials in Italy.  Amongst seniors the Liberals are doing surprisingly well in three polls so I am thinking the free prescription drugs is helping there.  On a regional basis nothing really unexpected.

[EPG]

Sorry to keep asking provincial Canadian questions. But a "brief" (by Atlas standards, i.e. comprehensive multi-paragraph) - brief explainer of Doug Ford, his image, his policies (if they exist)? I know who votes for him. I don't know why.

[mileslunn]

Sorry to keep asking provincial Canadian questions. But a "brief" (by Atlas standards, i.e. comprehensive multi-paragraph) - brief explainer of Doug Ford, his image, his policies (if they exist)? I know who votes for him. I don't know why.

Considering PC support has been in the low 40s for most of the last two years even when Patrick Brown was leader, I think it has less to do with the appeal of Doug Ford and more the unpopularity of the present Liberal government and desire to see them defeated.  The NDP as a third party are largely ignored as I've generally found when people want change they tend to turn to the opposition party and only skip to the third party if they dislike both the government and opposition.

Sure Ford doesn't have a lot of policies, and he does say stupid things, but as the old saying goes, people don't elect governments, governments defeat themselves.  So if he wins on June 7th (which is not a given), it will be more due to desire to get rid of the Wynne Liberals than to elect him.

If you are asking why Wynne is so unpopular.  The main reason is the government has been in power for 15 years and has had its share of scandals and harmful policies (high electricity rates for example) so its the general fatigue people get when a party has been in power too long.  Many rightly or wrongly feel the Wynne Liberals are tone deaf and don't listen to others and only care about power.  Generally speaking after a decade in power, people are ready for change so its always going to be an uphill battle to win re-election when you've been in office that long.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, our poll (as miles pointed out) also shows the PCs way ahead with under 35s so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ We also asked past vote, and a plurality of under 35 respondents indicated they voted Liberal, but many have switched allegiances. Some of the PC vote came from people who didn't vote in 2014 too. Something to keep an eye on, anyway. I guess I can just blame the erratic nature of subsamples.

[mileslunn]

Well, our poll (as miles pointed out) also shows the PCs way ahead with under 35s so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ We also asked past vote, and a plurality of under 35 respondents indicated they voted Liberal, but many have switched allegiances. Some of the PC vote came from people who didn't vote in 2014 too. Something to keep an eye on, anyway. I guess I can just blame the erratic nature of subsamples.

I also have noticed in all polls millennials tend to be under sampled (I am sure weighting adjusts this) as I believe with most being cells only with call displays they have a lower response rate.  In addition millennials tend to be less loyal to one party than older voters are I've found.  In addition with how much many are struggling, populism does seem to sell well with millennials.  In Italy, the Five Star Movement won big amongst millennials so could be sort of like that with Doug Ford.  Another example is in Quebec, I believe amongst millennials it is a close fight between the CAQ and QS and the CAQ is on the right too but also somewhat populists.

Interesting how well Liberals are doing amongst seniors and all three polls show this.  I am guessing the free prescription drugs was a big hit so wouldn't be surprised if Ford promises to keep this as it has a relatively low price tag compared to others and this is the group that generally votes so PCs need to do well amongst them.  It seems now Tories strongest amongst middle age voters and that was probably the group the budget did little for.  No free prescription drugs, their children are either grown up or in high school so childcare irrelevant.  Also peak earnings usually come around 55 so tax cuts as opposed to more programs would probably be appealing there whereas when 25 or 75 you use a lot more programs but don't pay much in taxes thus why Wynne's budget might be more appealing.

[VPH]

I can't speak more than anecdotally on millennial trends, so take it with a grain of salt, but most of my Ontario friends here at McGill are genuinely torn about who to vote for. They generally don't like Doug Ford, but detest Kathleen Wynne and see Andrea Horwath as irrelevant.

I have one friend from a small Central Ontario town from a Liberal family who just doesn't know. One friend from Etobicoke who voted for Wynne but is a huge Doug Ford fan. One friend from downtown Toronto who won't vote for Wynne because she "screwed over schools" but doesn't like Ford much at all. Another one who is all in for Wynne and might work for the OLP if he doesn't get another political gig over the summer.

It's an interesting blend, and those are just a few.

[MAINEiac4434]

I can't speak more than anecdotally on millennial trends, so take it with a grain of salt, but most of my Ontario friends here at McGill are genuinely torn about who to vote for. They generally don't like Doug Ford, but detest Kathleen Wynne and see Andrea Horwath as irrelevant.

I have one friend from a small Central Ontario town from a Liberal family who just doesn't know. One friend from Etobicoke who voted for Wynne but is a huge Doug Ford fan. One friend from downtown Toronto who won't vote for Wynne because she "screwed over schools" but doesn't like Ford much at all. Another one who is all in for Wynne and might work for the OLP if he doesn't get another political gig over the summer.

It's an interesting blend, and those are just a few.

Sounds like these people should just vote NDP. Horwath will only remain irrelevant as long as people keep thinking that it’s a two-party race.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't speak more than anecdotally on millennial trends, so take it with a grain of salt, but most of my Ontario friends here at McGill are genuinely torn about who to vote for. They generally don't like Doug Ford, but detest Kathleen Wynne and see Andrea Horwath as irrelevant.

I have one friend from a small Central Ontario town from a Liberal family who just doesn't know. One friend from Etobicoke who voted for Wynne but is a huge Doug Ford fan. One friend from downtown Toronto who won't vote for Wynne because she "screwed over schools" but doesn't like Ford much at all. Another one who is all in for Wynne and might work for the OLP if he doesn't get another political gig over the summer.

It's an interesting blend, and those are just a few.

Sounds like these people should just vote NDP. Horwath will only remain irrelevant as long as people keep thinking that it’s a two-party race.

As long as the NDP are polling >20%, they are not irrelevant. And when the top two choices are as awful as they are, the third place party automatically becomes relevant.

Anyways, my bold prediction: youth turnout will be abysmal.

[cp]

I can't speak more than anecdotally on millennial trends, so take it with a grain of salt, but most of my Ontario friends here at McGill are genuinely torn about who to vote for. They generally don't like Doug Ford, but detest Kathleen Wynne and see Andrea Horwath as irrelevant.

I have one friend from a small Central Ontario town from a Liberal family who just doesn't know. One friend from Etobicoke who voted for Wynne but is a huge Doug Ford fan. One friend from downtown Toronto who won't vote for Wynne because she "screwed over schools" but doesn't like Ford much at all. Another one who is all in for Wynne and might work for the OLP if he doesn't get another political gig over the summer.

It's an interesting blend, and those are just a few.

Sweet, another McGill alum

To add to the anecdotal evidence: to my surprise, my Ottawa-based Liberal friends are still quite determined and upbeat. I would have thought many of them would have defected to the NDP or Tories by now, but at least with them it doesn't seem to be the case.

Meanwhile, my centrist-minded Dad thinks Ford is as disreputable as Trump; not sure who he'd end up voting for, though.

[RogueBeaver]

More PC #MeToo news.

[DL]

New Ipsos poll

PCs - 40%
NDP - 28%
Libs - 27%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4134439/ontario-pc-party-ipsos-poll/

Only Horwath can stop Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos uses an opt-in panel, which is problematic, so I can't say I have much faith in those numbers. Their youth (<35) breakdown makes more sense though. Perhaps online panels are a better way of measuring that demographic than IVR.

[mileslunn]

I think when it comes to millennial votes, Ipsos sounds more accurate although Mainstreet and Ekos may end up being correct.  The reason for this is I've found millennials as a whole are fairly left leaning, but the minority who are on the right are much more likely to vote thus the lower millennial turnout is, the higher the percentage of those who do vote will be PC, whereas the more that show up the worst the PCs will do amongst them.  Also gender gap is another issue as it seems in all polls males are more likely to respond than females and since percentage who are married is lower amongst millennials than other groups you probably are likely to get a larger gender gap.  Ford does well amongst male millennials, but quite poorly amongst female millennials so if you don't weight by gender it might show Ford doing better amongst millennials due to higher response rate from males than females.

[adma]

To be honest, millennials or no millennials, I'd put more credence in the polls showing the Tories at 40% or under, because they more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings as well as the contentiousness of Doug Ford himself.  And remember that especially since the Calgary mayoral election, Mainstreet has a chequered rep for a pattern of having a right-populist thumb on the scale.

One thing about Ipsos worth noting, though: Doug Ford having leadership approval of 37%, only a couple of points below the usually-frontleading Andrea Horwath.  Which indicates that even if he's polarizing, those who like him, like him a lot (not unlike Trump in that regard)

[DC Al Fine]

To be honest, millennials or no millennials, I'd put more credence in the polls showing the Tories at 40% or under, because they more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings

Could you elaborate?

[adma]

If you want an idea of Mainstreet's problems...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-polling-failure-calgary-election-naheed-nenshi-1.4442659

[DC Al Fine]

That's not what I meant. I'm aware of Mainstreet's issues. I wanted to know why you think that polls showing the Tories at 40% or less "more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings". It's a bit of a different take.

[RogueBeaver]

Ford is resisting pressure to DQ Granic Allen over comments she made about Muslims and LGBT.