Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

Ford is resisting pressure to DQ Granic Allen over comments she made about Muslims and LGBT.

If she wins the Mississauga Centre nomination, those remarks will not go over well here I think. Over 16% of the population are Muslim, only 32% are white; this is a very ethnically/religiously diverse district

[DC Al Fine]

Ford is resisting pressure to DQ Granic Allen over comments she made about Muslims and LGBT.

If she wins the Mississauga Centre nomination, those remarks will not go over well here I think. Over 16% of the population are Muslim, only 32% are white; this is a very ethnically/religiously diverse district

This is my eternal frustration with a lot of socons. Muslims have a lot more in common with conservative Christians than we think. We really need to cut the bigotry and start working with them. Millennial social are getting it I think, but the older generations definitely aren't.

[adma]

That's not what I meant. I'm aware of Mainstreet's issues. I wanted to know why you think that polls showing the Tories at 40% or less "more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings". It's a bit of a different take.

Quirks include incumbency "bounce", relative strengths of candidates and parties in certain ridings, past patterns--the usual banal stuff.  And you seem to be skirting over my "as well as the contentiousness of Doug Ford himself" point...

[DC Al Fine]

That's not what I meant. I'm aware of Mainstreet's issues. I wanted to know why you think that polls showing the Tories at 40% or less "more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings". It's a bit of a different take.

Quirks include incumbency "bounce", relative strengths of candidates and parties in certain ridings, past patterns--the usual banal stuff.  And you seem to be skirting over my "as well as the contentiousness of Doug Ford himself" point...

That's because it's self evident that Doug Ford is controversial It was the other part I didn't get.

[mileslunn]

Abacus is now out and somewhat similar in topline but like Ipsos and unlike Ekos and Mainstreet show a strong divergence amongst millennials.  It seems online polls show millennials heavily tilting to the left while IVR favouring PCs.  Amongst older voters seems more consensus.  Off course if millennials don't show up it won't matter, but if they do could be interesting.  Both favour PCs, but it seems their majority is based heavily on vote splitting whereas with IVR it is a more solid lead.

PC 40%
Liberal 28%
NDP 24%
Green 6%

[mileslunn]

Liberals to do a million dollar ad buy to run attack ads on Doug Ford.  See www.realdougford.ca for the ideas they will be using.  Doubt it will help the Liberals much as Wynne is so unpopular not sure there is anything they can do to recover, but could damage Ford's approval rating.  If anything I think the NDP is the one most likely to benefit here as most have decided Ontario needs change it is what type.  At the moment the PCs are by far most favoured to be the party of change but if Ford becomes enough of a liability could benefit the NDP.  Still the NDP hasn't cracked the 30% mark since 2015 so perhaps their support is pretty baked in.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus is now out and somewhat similar in topline but like Ipsos and unlike Ekos and Mainstreet show a strong divergence amongst millennials.  It seems online polls show millennials heavily tilting to the left while IVR favouring PCs.  Amongst older voters seems more consensus.  Off course if millennials don't show up it won't matter, but if they do could be interesting.  Both favour PCs, but it seems their majority is based heavily on vote splitting whereas with IVR it is a more solid lead.

PC 40%
Liberal 28%
NDP 24%
Green 6%

Those age splits make a Tory majority seem a lot safer. Polls with the Tories in the 40's with high millennial support and the Liberals doing well with seniors indicated that things could tighten pretty quick and/or there would be a surprise on election day. A 40% PC result with standard age splits is a lot more stable for the PC's

[wxtransit]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

[mileslunn]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

Largely because her government has been in power for almost 15 years and they have had their fair share of scandals and baggage. Also rising electricity prices. In addition the government comes across as arrogant and out of touch.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

She's a woman who has been effective but slightly less than perfect. Seems to be a cardinal sin.

[Pandaguineapig]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

She's a woman who has been effective but slightly less than perfect. Seems to be a cardinal sin.

I'm sure in your mind the only reason Kim Campbell lost was because she was a woman

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

She's a woman who has been effective but slightly less than perfect. Seems to be a cardinal sin.

I'm sure in your mind the only reason Kim Campbell lost was because she was a woman

The ironic part is that Hagrid's post is itself sexist, by applying kid gloves to female leaders. You really think a man seeking a fifth term for a scandal-ridden government wouldn't have crappy approval ratings? Ok dude.

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

[Lord Halifax]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Is the Ontario NDP in bad shape?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Kids gloves? Wynne has done nothing particularly offensive. Parties face atmospheres of fatigue all the time, but rarely do their leaders experience the same sheer force of pure personal vitriol that Kathleen Wynne is facing. People aren’t “tired” of her—they hate her. A 14% approval rating for delivering generally popular policy initiatives isn’t just because of fatigue.

The situation is different for other women like Kim Campbell and Horwath because they never actually had to make any meaningful decisions. We haven’t had to find an excuse to criticize them for absolutely everything yet.

By all means, subject Kathleen Wynne to fair criticism. But most of what I hear is vague BS about her being out of touch, opportunistic, or politically correct. Not everyone who votes against the OLP is motivated or moved by sexism. But to say that’s it’s not a large factor is a deliberate exercise of ignorance.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see Hagrid badly wants a replay of the US election.

I actually do think sexism may be a part of the equation (she deserves to be unpopular, but the most unpopular premier? not sure if that's deserved), but it is not the only reason, and probably not the biggest part of it.

[adma]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Or the federal Iggy Liberals in 2011.  Of course, re the early 90s, that's seat totals, not overall vote tally--which means, it could still happen (much as it did in 1975 when the NDP became official opposition in the first Davis minority).

Remember that the ONDP still, to this day, suffers from the collateral third-leg-thrust-into-power "not ready for prime time" damage of a quarter century ago.  And if Wynne's doing as well as she is, it's also because Doug Ford isn't a readymade "neutral" vessel for votes a la Jean Chretien or various BC Liberal leaders...

[DC Al Fine]

Kids gloves? Wynne has done nothing particularly offensive. Parties face atmospheres of fatigue all the time, but rarely do their leaders experience the same sheer force of pure personal vitriol that Kathleen Wynne is facing. People aren’t “tired” of her—they hate her. A 14% approval rating for delivering generally popular policy initiatives isn’t just because of fatigue.

The situation is different for other women like Kim Campbell and Horwath because they never actually had to make any meaningful decisions. We haven’t had to find an excuse to criticize them for absolutely everything yet.

By all means, subject Kathleen Wynne to fair criticism. But most of what I hear is vague BS about her being out of touch, opportunistic, or politically correct. Not everyone who votes against the OLP is motivated or moved by sexism. But to say that’s it’s not a large factor is a deliberate exercise of ignorance.

Off the top of my head, the gas plant scandal, the Sudbury by-election, massive hydro rate hikes since the last election, and Ontario having the worst wage growth in the country over the past decade (worse than even my economic basket case of a province) are all normal, concrete reasons why the government is unpopular... And I don't even follow Ontario politics that closely. I'm sure RB or Harman or LittleTommy could come up with more. Besides this is a government seeking its fifth term, not it's second. One has to expect a much larger level of fatigue than normal.

What's more, some of the vague reasons you cite tie in pretty well with my concrete ones. (E.g. "opportunistic" to "gas plant s" or "out of touch" to "focusing on green projects while hydro rate skyrocket")

I see Hagrid badly wants a replay of the US election.

I actually do think sexism may be a part of the equation (she deserves to be unpopular, but the most unpopular premier? not sure if that's deserved), but it is not the only reason, and probably not the biggest part of it.

The problem with the sexism hypothesis is that we have a recent, relevant test case to compare to in Greg Selinger, and the evidence doesn't support it. Like Wynne, Selinger was seeking a second term and fifth in a row for the party. Like Wynne, his approval rating bottomed out in the teens. One would think that if the sexism hypothesis was true, a male Premier in a similar situation two years ago would have much better approval ratings than their female equivalent today, but that isn't the case.

[DC Al Fine]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Is the Ontario NDP in bad shape?

I'll defer to the Ontarians for a detailed explanation, but my understanding is that they aren't in disarray. The problem is that they haven't converted some opportunities and there is still a little bit of a bad taste from their last government in the 1990's.

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Or the federal Iggy Liberals in 2011.  Of course, re the early 90s, that's seat totals, not overall vote tally--which means, it could still happen (much as it did in 1975 when the NDP became official opposition in the first Davis minority).

Remember that the ONDP still, to this day, suffers from the collateral third-leg-thrust-into-power "not ready for prime time" damage of a quarter century ago.  And if Wynne's doing as well as she is, it's also because Doug Ford isn't a readymade "neutral" vessel for votes a la Jean Chretien or various BC Liberal leaders...

The example I was thinking of was before 1993... Mulroney actually spent much of his 2nd term behind the NDP in the polls. I think the NDP actually led for a little while. Otherwise I agree with what you said.

[MaxQue]

I just think it's ironic people say Wynne is the worst Premier even when the PC leader is the brother of the worst Toronto mayor ever.

[RogueBeaver]

Hydro's the yugest one probably. Plus in the past 3 elections (I don't consider 2007 winnable) Tory leaders have scared swing voters into voting Grit, but no more.

[adma]

The example I was thinking of was before 1993... Mulroney actually spent much of his 2nd term behind the NDP in the polls. I think the NDP actually led for a little while. Otherwise I agree with what you said.

Actually, the initial critical "Ed-mania" was in Mulroney's first term c1987, but then the Tories and Libs ressserted their 1-2 in the 1988 election.  Then the Tories reassumed their free fall and there came about a certain Audrey McLaughlin honeymoon, believe it or not, which was augmented by the all-too-brief Ontario Rae-government honeymoon--this was around the time the Tories were at a 10-15% rock bottom in the polls, so in some ways it said more about how loathed Mulroney was than about how loved the NDP was...

[Hatman 🍁]

Kids gloves? Wynne has done nothing particularly offensive. Parties face atmospheres of fatigue all the time, but rarely do their leaders experience the same sheer force of pure personal vitriol that Kathleen Wynne is facing. People aren’t “tired” of her—they hate her. A 14% approval rating for delivering generally popular policy initiatives isn’t just because of fatigue.

The situation is different for other women like Kim Campbell and Horwath because they never actually had to make any meaningful decisions. We haven’t had to find an excuse to criticize them for absolutely everything yet.

By all means, subject Kathleen Wynne to fair criticism. But most of what I hear is vague BS about her being out of touch, opportunistic, or politically correct. Not everyone who votes against the OLP is motivated or moved by sexism. But to say that’s it’s not a large factor is a deliberate exercise of ignorance.

Off the top of my head, the gas plant scandal, the Sudbury by-election, massive hydro rate hikes since the last election, and Ontario having the worst wage growth in the country over the past decade (worse than even my economic basket case of a province) are all normal, concrete reasons why the government is unpopular... And I don't even follow Ontario politics that closely. I'm sure RB or Harman or LittleTommy could come up with more. Besides this is a government seeking its fifth term, not it's second. One has to expect a much larger level of fatigue than normal.

What's more, some of the vague reasons you cite tie in pretty well with my concrete ones. (E.g. "opportunistic" to "gas plant s" or "out of touch" to "focusing on green projects while hydro rate skyrocket")

I see Hagrid badly wants a replay of the US election.

I actually do think sexism may be a part of the equation (she deserves to be unpopular, but the most unpopular premier? not sure if that's deserved), but it is not the only reason, and probably not the biggest part of it.

The problem with the sexism hypothesis is that we have a recent, relevant test case to compare to in Greg Selinger, and the evidence doesn't support it. Like Wynne, Selinger was seeking a second term and fifth in a row for the party. Like Wynne, his approval rating bottomed out in the teens. One would think that if the sexism hypothesis was true, a male Premier in a similar situation two years ago would have much better approval ratings than their female equivalent today, but that isn't the case.

Selinger was a particularly bad case of awful. I would not have even voted for him, had I lived in his riding! But had he been female, I would suspect things would've been even worse!

Anyways, it is a hypothesis, but when I see such awful sexist things said about (or to) prominent female politicians on social media, it is hard to ignore that a lot of it has to do with the sex.

[mileslunn]

I think sexism is overblown here as lets remember in 2014 Wynne started the campaign trailing in the polls and came back.  True Hudak's dumb moves were a big part of it, but its not as though she didn't win once.  Andrea Howarth who is a woman has favourable ratings and while not doing too well in the polls, she has potential to grow, more so than either Ford or Wynne (Yes Ford has a higher ceiling, but he also has a much stronger base than Howarth does).  Likewise had the PCs chosen Christine Elliott instead of Doug Ford they would probably have a bigger lead in the polls (likely north of 45%) as Elliott is more well liked amongst the general population than Ford is.  In fact Elliott would have more or less guaranteed a PC win whereas with Ford it may be likely, but far from certain as he is far more polarizing and has much higher negatives.  Of the four PC leadership candidates, I believe Christine Elliott would fare the best in a general election followed by Caroline Mulroney while only Tanya Granic Allen would do worse than Doug Ford.  But she is a complete nutbar and on the far right so her views not gender would be the issue. 

I think the Manitoba comparison is fair.  If you go out to the West Coast, lets remember the BC Liberals were headed for almost certain defeat in 2013, but won (I believe had the party still been led by Gordon Campbell or any of the other three candidates they would have lost) and likewise in 2017 after 16 years in power with all the baggage, the BC Liberals did win the popular vote and most seats.  True Christy Clark is not premier now due to the NDP/Green deal but coming within a 150 votes of a majority after 16 years in power is pretty impressive.  I also don't think Canada is any more sexist than the UK and Britain has had two female prime-ministers while both Australia and New Zealand have also had female PMs.  In the case of New Zealand, it is true Jacinda Ardern didn't win the popular vote, but the party was trailing by 20 points 2 months before the election under their previous leader and it was by switching to her they were able to get enough votes to make forming a coalition possible.  Not saying sexism doesn't exist, it does, but blaming Wynne's unpopularity on it is silly as most parties after 15 years in power with all the baggage have atrocious approval ratings.

[DC Al Fine]

Earl, what did Selinger do for you to rate him so poorly? I'd rank Wynne worse personally.

As for the online vitriol, I think that's a fair point. I will grant that sexism is playing a very minor role, but it seems like some progressive posters (not you) use the gender card to ignore the very normal, concrete reasons why a Wynne or Clinton are so unpopular.

[DC Al Fine]

Speaking of Wynne's approval ratings, does anyone know what the approval ratings were like for some of the recent cases of unpopular leaders making comebacks during the election? I feel like Clark or McGuinty (or heck Wynne in 2011) were doing better than she is now.