Ontario 2018 election

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Is the Ontario NDP in bad shape?

I'll defer to the Ontarians for a detailed explanation, but my understanding is that they aren't in disarray. The problem is that they haven't converted some opportunities and there is still a little bit of a bad taste from their last government in the 1990's.

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Or the federal Iggy Liberals in 2011.  Of course, re the early 90s, that's seat totals, not overall vote tally--which means, it could still happen (much as it did in 1975 when the NDP became official opposition in the first Davis minority).

Remember that the ONDP still, to this day, suffers from the collateral third-leg-thrust-into-power "not ready for prime time" damage of a quarter century ago.  And if Wynne's doing as well as she is, it's also because Doug Ford isn't a readymade "neutral" vessel for votes a la Jean Chretien or various BC Liberal leaders...

The example I was thinking of was before 1993... Mulroney actually spent much of his 2nd term behind the NDP in the polls. I think the NDP actually led for a little while. Otherwise I agree with what you said.

That is interesting you remember that. I remember watching a old CBC clip from the late 80's in my civics class. Brian Mulroney addressed the NDP leader Ed Broadbent as Mr Prime Minister or Mr Prime Minister Elect.

[adma]

I think the Manitoba comparison is fair.  If you go out to the West Coast, lets remember the BC Liberals were headed for almost certain defeat in 2013, but won (I believe had the party still been led by Gordon Campbell or any of the other three candidates they would have lost) and likewise in 2017 after 16 years in power with all the baggage, the BC Liberals did win the popular vote and most seats.  True Christy Clark is not premier now due to the NDP/Green deal but coming within a 150 votes of a majority after 16 years in power is pretty impressive.  I also don't think Canada is any more sexist than the UK and Britain has had two female prime-ministers while both Australia and New Zealand have also had female PMs.  In the case of New Zealand, it is true Jacinda Ardern didn't win the popular vote, but the party was trailing by 20 points 2 months before the election under their previous leader and it was by switching to her they were able to get enough votes to make forming a coalition possible.  Not saying sexism doesn't exist, it does, but blaming Wynne's unpopularity on it is silly as most parties after 15 years in power with all the baggage have atrocious approval ratings.

Actually, going back in Manitoba history, don't forget Sharon Carstairs in 1988.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, what did Selinger do for you to rate him so poorly? I'd rank Wynne worse personally.

He should have resigned when his caucus rebelled instead of holding a divisive leadership election to succeed himself, which he almost certainly lost the popular vote in.

[toaster]

Perhaps this is a Very American Question, but given that (after a quick glance, so forgive me if I'm off here) the ONDP Shadow Cabinet has seemingly allocated most of the major portfolios to has-beens/retreads from the Hampton-era - Why are Bisson and Tabuns still there, por ejemplo? - might Gurratan run for leadership as a freshman assuming that Horwath resigns?

Pretty sure the entire ONDP caucus has a shadow position.  And Bisson is Horwath's right hand man, he gave her the leadership victory when he supporter her after failing off the ballot in their leadership election.  I expect him to stay on in an important role as long as he is there alongside Horwath.  Tabuns is also now the only MPP from Toronto for the ONDP, so I would hope he would have an important role so show the city that Andrea hasn't abandoned the progressive-left side of the NDP.

[politicallefty]

I think Hagrid's right though. The Wynne hatred is so visceral and irrational. It reminds me of reflexive right-wing hatred of Hillary. To be honest though, I don't put it past any Canadian electorate to defy the polls. I wouldn't rule out the Liberals at this point in time.

[mileslunn]

Innovative Research is out with a poll.  Shows PCs with biggest lead amongst struggling strivers while much like Ekos only amongst haves are Liberals competitive.  Both PCs and NDP have highest ceiling while Liberals have the lowest so in line with other polls

PC44%
Lib26%
NDP22%
Green7%

[mileslunn]

NDP has now released their platform which includes in its highlights the following:
-  5 years of deficit including $3.3 billion which is lower than the Liberals but possibly higher than the PCs.
-  Immediate minimum wage hike to $15/hour no waiting until January 1, 2019
-  Raise the corporate tax rate to 13% (so Ontario would have the highest corporate tax rate outside Atlantic Canada)
-  Raise the top rate by 1% for those making over 220K, 2% over 300K so a combined federal + Provincial total of 55.53% which would be the highest in North America and one of the highest (although not the highest) in the OECD.  Also a luxury tax on vehicles over 90K
- $12/a day childcare and free for those making less than 40K
-  Free dental care and pharmacare
- 100% buy back of the shares of Hydro One

So in summary a fairly left wing one suggesting to me the Liberals and NDP are largely fighting over the same voters.  It was signed off by Kevin Page so adds some fiscal credibility.  Still considering how poorly the Liberal budget went over with voters I am guessing the individual items will be quite popular but the general direction won't be.  The NDP has greater potential for growth than the Liberals due to lack of baggage, but both are fighting over similar voters so one needs to implode for either party to realistically have a shot at winning.  Also strong turnout amongst millennials will be key to either Liberals or NDP winning and also hope Ford shoots himself in the foot which is quite plausible.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the polls just over 50 days out from the election, here is where I think things stand.

Progressive Conservatives: They have a solid lead and if an election were held today would almost certainly win, probably a majority.  It is otherwise theirs to lose, but I have seen parties blow bigger leads (NDP in BC in 2013, Liberals in Ontario in 1995), but more often than not parties with that type of lead do go on to win.  Nevertheless a PC minority is still very possible as it would only take a 3 to 4 point shift away from the PCs for this to happen and considering how polarizing Ford is as well as his tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, it cannot be ruled out.

Liberals: Wynne has thrown everything she can to try to win and nothing seems to be working.  I get the impression the desire for change is so strong that there maybe is nothing she can do.  I am not ruling out the Liberals win, but it would be one of the biggest comebacks we've ever seen.  Essentially Wynne needs to pull an inside straight to win.  Her best chance of still being premier on Canada Day is hold the PCs to a minority, come in second in seats and get Howarth to agree to a supply and confidence.

NDP: Right now they are well back and certainly face an uphill battle, but unlike the Liberals, they have far more room to grow therefore the idea of premier Howarth on July 1st is more likely than premier Wynne.  Their biggest obstacle is in too many parts of the province they are irrelevant so an NDP minority is definitely plausible, but majority is a long stretch but not impossible after all Notley had even worse numbers at this point.  That being said the NDP needs the Liberals to implode and also the PCs to slide too.  As long as the Liberals are polling at over 25%, they won't be able to win and likewise as long as the PCs stay above 40% they won't either.  But if they can push the Liberals down into the teens and PCs into the 30s, then it becomes plausible.

[lilTommy]

NDP has now released their platform which includes in its highlights the following:
-  5 years of deficit including $3.3 billion which is lower than the Liberals but possibly higher than the PCs.
-  Immediate minimum wage hike to $15/hour no waiting until January 1, 2019
-  Raise the corporate tax rate to 13% (so Ontario would have the highest corporate tax rate outside Atlantic Canada)
-  Raise the top rate by 1% for those making over 220K, 2% over 300K so a combined federal + Provincial total of 55.53% which would be the highest in North America and one of the highest (although not the highest) in the OECD.  Also a luxury tax on vehicles over 90K
- $12/a day childcare and free for those making less than 40K
-  Free dental care and pharmacare
- 100% buy back of the shares of Hydro One

So in summary a fairly left wing one suggesting to me the Liberals and NDP are largely fighting over the same voters.  It was signed off by Kevin Page so adds some fiscal credibility.  Still considering how poorly the Liberal budget went over with voters I am guessing the individual items will be quite popular but the general direction won't be.  The NDP has greater potential for growth than the Liberals due to lack of baggage, but both are fighting over similar voters so one needs to implode for either party to realistically have a shot at winning.  Also strong turnout amongst millennials will be key to either Liberals or NDP winning and also hope Ford shoots himself in the foot which is quite plausible.

I'm going to add a few more highlights since they have some key significance, most were known already:

-funding 50% of TTC operating costs and building the Yonge relief line/Hamilton LRT
-converting OSAP loans to non-repayable grants
-banning carding
-non-ontario based speculation tax
-updating the cap-and-trade carbon pricing so 25% revenue going to support low-income, rural, north, and trade exposed
-an entire plank section on Reconciliation/First Nations Issues. 

Agreed this is a decidedly left wing platform, which should eliminate the infighting that arose during 2014. the internal criticism that the plan then was not left enough. The ONDP will be and from what I can see much more unified now then 2014

I think the overall "meh" response to the Liberal budget was more in the fact that is was a Liberal Budget. Less the content and the fact that people are tired or the Liberals more or less.

I think, for those who bother, the difference between the Liberals and the NDP is that the Liberals approach the big plans with a targeted, exceptions/exclusions based policy (i.e., OHIP+ is only for 65+ and 21 or 25 under, Tuition grants only 30% of students qualify, $15 min.wage has exemptions, etc) While the NDP are taking a Universality approach (i.e. Pharmacare and $15min.wage for everyone, Dental care extend for those without coverage, Tuition grants for all OSAP).

[mileslunn]

Certainly no doubt the negative reaction to the Liberal budget could be fatigue with the party.  Although the question becomes do people just want a change of players with minor differences or do they want major change.  Polls for what they are worth show new spending is popular, but they also show most want a balanced budget and lower taxes thus tough to know.  For the NDP they need to hope the Liberals implode to have a chance as that would push them up into the 30s thus solid opposition.  To win they then have to hope Ford trips up (which is very possible) and then pick up some soft PC voters or those voters stay home so the NDP can win but they need a lot to go right for them. 

Now if they form opposition, there is a good chance they will form government in either in 2022 (if Ford is a disaster) or 2026 or 2030 depending on when people tire of the PCs as unlike federally there is no Justin Trudeau like figure waiting in the wings of the Liberals, so if they fall to third place there is a good chance they will go the way of the UK Liberal Democrats, winning in a few upscale trendy ridings but irrelevant elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

Ford has promised no income taxes for those making minimum wage.  While it may not be as popular as raising the minimum wage to $15/hour, it does blunt the attacks he will get.  It means one is $800 better off while minimum wage increase is $2,000 assuming one works full time and their hours are not cut back.  Also cost is only $500 million so not a big spending.  I think this will be mildly positive but not a big hit.  The Liberals and NDP will attack it but I suspect those who feel very strongly about raising the minimum wage to $15/hour aren't going to be voting PC anyways.  While PCs are strongest amongst working class voters, its mainly those making around $20/hour not $15/hour where their strongest support is and I've found often those making just above minimum wage are most resentful as it erodes their standing and purchasing power while those well above it tend to be more supportive since it helps others and has limited impact on themselves.

[mileslunn]

BrightPoint Strategies which I have never heard of before has a poll out and despite being lead by Kevin Gaudet who is a conservative their numbers largely line up with other pollsters.  It did like Forum show a tightening after the budget but that has disappeared.

PC 41.6%
Liberal 26.3%
NDP 23%
Green 7.2%

[toaster]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?  Where is the housing program for young people trying to buy their first home (like the downpayment program they have in BC)?  Where is UNIVERSAL post-secondary education?

We should be moving away form these "for low income" or "if your employer doesn't provide it" programs to universal programs.


Not a "left" plan at all, IMO. 

[MaxQue]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

[toaster]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

All other provinces that got out of it were able to do it.  If Ontario wanted out of the business of being discriminatory, and fully funding these schools, they could do it.

Andrea Horwath's message to young Gay francophones (who can't work openly in a Catholic system): I think you should only have access to 20% of teaching jobs.  That's the message I'm getting anyway. 

[DC Al Fine]

Presumably the NDP don't want to touch faith based schools for the same reason the Tories don't want to revisit it...

The NDP is trying to tread a very fine line between keeping their base happy and not blowing a rare chance to win power due to some random controversial platform plank, and I think they're doing a reasonable job of it. Ontario isn't Texas but it's more right wing than people give it credit for. That needs to be taken into account when criticizing platforms.

[EPG]

E.g., I imagine almost no older person age 65+ would look favourably on that kind of policy, albeit they're under-represented on Atlas/Twitter.

[Lord Halifax]

Presumably the NDP don't want to touch faith based schools for the same reason the Tories don't want to revisit it...

The NDP is trying to tread a very fine line between keeping their base happy and not blowing a rare chance to win power due to some random controversial platform plank, and I think they're doing a reasonable job of it. Ontario isn't Texas but it's more right wing than people give it credit for. That needs to be taken into account when criticizing platforms.

Why is banning religious schools even an issue? It sounds anti-democratic to me.

[DC Al Fine]

Presumably the NDP don't want to touch faith based schools for the same reason the Tories don't want to revisit it...

The NDP is trying to tread a very fine line between keeping their base happy and not blowing a rare chance to win power due to some random controversial platform plank, and I think they're doing a reasonable job of it. Ontario isn't Texas but it's more right wing than people give it credit for. That needs to be taken into account when criticizing platforms.

Why is banning religious schools even an issue? It sounds anti-democratic to me.

It's not banning, Catholic schools would be legal just not publicly funded.

There are two different axes of publically funded education, resulting in four systems in Ontario; English-French and Public (originally Protestantish, but has been secular for a very long time)-Catholic. There is a Charter right for Francophones and Anglophones to have their kids educated in their language but no corresponding right to have ones children educated in a particular religion.

In 2007 the Tories had a botched campaign promise to expand public funding to Evangelical, Muslim etc schools and they got burned by it. Some on the left want the NDP and/or Liberals to eliminate funding for Catholic schools and I suspect they would get burned on that side too.

Personally I think the Tory proposal from 2007 is the most democratic as secular schools present a particular worldview and non-Catholics who disagree are at a significant financial disadvantage in educating their kids in their preferred worldview compared to secular and Catholic parents.

[MaxQue]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

All other provinces that got out of it were able to do it.  If Ontario wanted out of the business of being discriminatory, and fully funding these schools, they could do it.

Andrea Horwath's message to young Gay francophones (who can't work openly in a Catholic system): I think you should only have access to 20% of teaching jobs.  That's the message I'm getting anyway. 

The solution is to ban gay hiring discrimination there.

[toaster]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

All other provinces that got out of it were able to do it.  If Ontario wanted out of the business of being discriminatory, and fully funding these schools, they could do it.

Andrea Horwath's message to young Gay francophones (who can't work openly in a Catholic system): I think you should only have access to 20% of teaching jobs.  That's the message I'm getting anyway.  

The solution is to ban gay hiring discrimination there.

Which essentially makes them non-catholic.  Most of the Catholic schools (particularly in areas of the GTA like Peel) are filled with non-catholics.  So why even have them?

The other thing that I take issue with is when people point to Johny Tory's PC party, and say "look it was a disaster then with what he proposed".  Yeah, it was a disaster because the PCs wanted to EXPAND funding of religious schools, which most Ontarians are against. The opposite, wouldn't you think, would get the opposite reaction (i.e., favourable).

The fact that this exists in 2018, in Ontario, is upsetting.
Again, the issue is more pronounced on the French side, where some 80% of the jobs in most areas with Catholic schools.  It's outrageously discriminatory towards Muslim, Sikh, Atheist, etc, Francophones more than anyone, as the French public boards are so small.
Again, Andrea Horwath is saying loud in clear: I think Muslim francophone teachers don't deserve as many job opportunities as Catholic Francophones for jobs (actually only 1 out of every 5).   Or you're a francophone Sikh family, your child will have to travel across town an hour on a bus to get to a French public school, even though there is a French-Catholic school across the street.  But the catholic family next door, your kids won't have to take an hour-long bus ride.   If people don't see that as discriminatory, than we have a larger problem in this province than we may have though.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the number of "Francophone Sikh" families are negligible.

[Oryxslayer]

I know I may be butting in, but this is one of the few threads that I regularly follow, and I feel I just should make a point about electability. First off, the school issue might just be a non-issue. Everywhere there are just some issues that the majority of people don't really care about. They are just happy to leave it the way it is and move on. Anyone who tries to reraise the issue gets shouted down. I don't know much about Ontario Politics, and you do, but perhaps Catholic schools are just that kind of issue. Horwath might just not want to raise the issue for fear of backlash, just like the Tories.

The second thing is that the impression I get is that the NDP isn't confined to permanent opposition - at least not this election. There is a narrow path that allows Horwath to win second place, see Ford get a Minority, and then form a Coalition with the Liberals to govern. In this scenario, it is beneficial to compromise with the more moderate left voters and move towards the center-left from the left to take the rolls of opposition. It also pays to have a manifesto that matches up with your potential coalition partner, so that you only really end up arguing about how much or how far should something change/stay the same, rather then argue about whether or not to even touch certain issues.

[DL]

Latest Forum poll out this morning is a total bloodbath for the Wynne Liberals:

PC - 46%
NDP - 27%
Liberals - 21% (!) and projected to lose official party status with just 7 seats

http://www.qpbriefing.com/2018/04/20/forum-poll-ontario-liberals-fall-third-place-risk-losing-party-status/

[Hatman 🍁]

I know I may be butting in, but this is one of the few threads that I regularly follow, and I feel I just should make a point about electability. First off, the school issue might just be a non-issue. Everywhere there are just some issues that the majority of people don't really care about. They are just happy to leave it the way it is and move on. Anyone who tries to reraise the issue gets shouted down. I don't know much about Ontario Politics, and you do, but perhaps Catholic schools are just that kind of issue. Horwath might just not want to raise the issue for fear of backlash, just like the Tories.

Agreed. Sadly, only the Greens care about this issue. Even though most Ontarians support abolishing the Catholic boards, the main parties are too scared about the Catholic vote to rock the boat on the issue. All three parties have seats that are at least a plurality Catholic.

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Again, there will be no coalition. Maybe a working arrangement a la BC, though.