Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

Leger is out with another poll.  Mainstreet will have Ontario on Monday and according to a tweet there is a significant change for one party, so will be interesting.  That being said a big drop for the PCs would only bring them in line with others (they had PCs at 50% last time around so even a 10 point drop would put them just below the average of other polls and five point drop still above most other polls).

PC 43%
Liberal 26%
NDP 26%

While NDP and Liberals are tied for second, NDP would form the official opposition due to distribution as well as they seem to as others have suggested have more room for growth than Liberals do.

For best premier it was:

Ford 25%
Howarth 20%
Wynne 12%

When asked if it would be a disaster if elected, the following responded yes

NDP 33%
PC 44%
Lib 59%

Otherwise at this point, I think the PCs are heavily favoured to win the next election, but if they fall short it is more likely to be the NDP than Liberals.  I get the impression people have decided they have had it with the Liberals as they have far less room for growth than the NDP.  Still opposition is very much up for grabs as Liberal vote is more spread out so at current numbers they would fall to third, but a 5 point increase would flip a lot of seats in their favour whereas a five point shift to the NDP would flip very few.  The NDP needs an 8-10 point jump before they start flipping a whole bunch of seats.

[adma]

Mainstreet will have Ontario on Monday and according to a tweet there is a significant change for one party, so will be interesting.  That being said a big drop for the PCs would only bring them in line with others (they had PCs at 50% last time around so even a 10 point drop would put them just below the average of other polls and five point drop still above most other polls).

That's what I suspect; the last PC result seemed overinflated.  Of course, they'll spin that "correction" as something more significant (or not) than it is...

[toaster]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

[DC Al Fine]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like 42-32-21?

[mileslunn]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like 42-32-21?

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

[136or142]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

[toaster]

I'm surprised Ottawa Centre is one of the top 4 safest Liberal seats in the province.  I think the last provincial election had a lot of would-be NDPers (Glebe progressives) voting Liberal to stop Hudak's right wing reform, but with Wynne as unpopular as she is, I'm not sure that is going to happen again. 

[mileslunn]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

I think Toronto-St. Paul's would go PC before NDP, it is sort of akin in BC to Vancouver-Quadra federally or provincial ridings like Vancouver-False Creek otherwise your wealthy progressives and I've generally found people making 6 figure salaries have no problem voting Liberal but voting NDP is a bridge too far.  If you compare the US vs. UK you see this too as very wealthy areas have no problem going Democrat, but you don't see them voting Labour in the UK and Democrats are more like the Liberals philosophically while Labour more like the NDP.

Toronto Centre and Ottawa Centre agree could go NDP if Liberals implode.  York Centre would probably go PC first and at the moment PCs favoured.  Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would also probably go PC with current polling numbers but if Ford does something stupid and the PCs fall into the 30s while the Liberals implode then they become possible NDP pick ups.  Scarborough-Guildwood, the NDP did well federally in 2011 so possible, but also this area voted over 50% for Doug Ford as mayor so it is part of the so called Ford Nation.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

[DC Al Fine]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

Definitely the former.

[mileslunn]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

both but more than former nonetheless polls do suggest a slight rightward drift. I also think the left did better when Harper was in power while with Trudeau in power there is some desire to balance things out.

[adma]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

I think Toronto-St. Paul's would go PC before NDP, it is sort of akin in BC to Vancouver-Quadra federally or provincial ridings like Vancouver-False Creek otherwise your wealthy progressives and I've generally found people making 6 figure salaries have no problem voting Liberal but voting NDP is a bridge too far.  If you compare the US vs. UK you see this too as very wealthy areas have no problem going Democrat, but you don't see them voting Labour in the UK and Democrats are more like the Liberals philosophically while Labour more like the NDP.

Toronto Centre and Ottawa Centre agree could go NDP if Liberals implode.  York Centre would probably go PC first and at the moment PCs favoured.  Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would also probably go PC with current polling numbers but if Ford does something stupid and the PCs fall into the 30s while the Liberals implode then they become possible NDP pick ups.  Scarborough-Guildwood, the NDP did well federally in 2011 so possible, but also this area voted over 50% for Doug Ford as mayor so it is part of the so called Ford Nation.

The problem with a lot of these suppositions is that they're based too naively upon extrapolation from past polls and polling numbers, including notional figures for "new" ridings.

The fact is: Toronto Centre as presently drawn is more or less on par with Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale, it's just the fact that it came from a *completely* safe-Liberal riding that makes it look otherwise.  The Etobicoke seats are skewed Toryward by Doug Ford's proximity, and Etobicoke Centre especially is at the bottommost tier of NDP pickup potential.  And Guildwood only *looks* as safe as it does because John MacKay hung on federally in 2011 and that became the meal ticket for a 2015 incumbent landslide--otherwise it, too, is more or less on par with its neighbours...

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet out with a new Ontario poll.  Seems their numbers are starting to converge with other polls so not sure a big shift happened, rather just moving into line with other polls as they seemed to have the PCs on the high side and NDP on the low side.

PC 44.9%
Lib 28.2%
NDP 21.3%
Green 4%

[DL]

Mainstreet says their fieldwork was done April 16-18...why on earth would a polling company wait almost two weeks to release numbers in the midst of a super time sensitive de facto election campaign? I could understand staggering release dates on place like MB or SK where we are years from the next election but in Ontario in the current highly charged environment a poll goes stale within days of data being collected. 

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet says their fieldwork was done April 16-18...why on earth would a polling company wait almost two weeks to release numbers in the midst of a super time sensitive de facto election campaign? I could understand staggering release dates on place like MB or SK where we are years from the next election but in Ontario in the current highly charged environment a poll goes stale within days of data being collected. 

Yeah it does seem a bit weird, mind I believe they have private polling so its quite possible the numbers today aren't that much different.  I suspect as usual they will release a poll on June 6th and that will ultimately be the one people use to judge whether they are accurate or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet says their fieldwork was done April 16-18...why on earth would a polling company wait almost two weeks to release numbers in the midst of a super time sensitive de facto election campaign? I could understand staggering release dates on place like MB or SK where we are years from the next election but in Ontario in the current highly charged environment a poll goes stale within days of data being collected. 

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Quito Maggi is a Liberal?

[mileslunn]

Nanos is now out with a CATI poll ( http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-1150-OREA-Wave-2-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf ).  Mostly on home ownership, but if you scroll down you will find it.  It was in the field from April 3rd to April 22nd so nothing new in dates.  Liberals a bit higher than other polls, PCs in line while NDP slightly lower.  I've found telephone polls tend to put Liberals higher while online NDP higher.  I am guessing probably due to telephone polls skewing older is the reason.

PC 42%
Lib 31%
NDP 21%
Green 5%

Also has vote consider and sort of in line with others

PC Consider 50%, not consider 36%
Lib Consider 41% Not Consider 46%
NDP Consider 42% Not Consider 42%
Green  Consider 28% Not Consider 57%

On Best Premier

Ford 32%
Howarth 21%
Wynne 17%

[Hydera]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

Energy and Hydro prices have been rising in Ontario ever since the provincial liberals passed the Green Energy Act in 2009. Rising energy bills are done in order to fund renewables and its risen dramatically since 2015.

 


Without the rising prices for energy the PC's wouldnt have gotten a lot of Liberal voters to switch over.

[toaster]

Finally confirmed, incumbent Liberal MPP for Etobicoke-North, Dr Shafiq Qaadri, is running again (against Ford).  I actually think this will be quite close, given how this is strong Liberal terrirotiy provincially and federally (Kirsty Duncan won with over 60% of the vote federally not too long ago).

[adma]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

[ON Progressive]

Nanos released a new poll:

PC 42%, Liberal 31%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-1150-OREA-Wave-2-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf (go to page 57)

Plugging it in to the tooclosetocall simulator results in a seat count of: PC 70, Liberal 33, NDP 21.

[mileslunn]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Dumb move and cannot see this helping him.  How much damage it will do is tough to say, but I suspect a lot will depend on how long this stays in the news cycle.  If it is forgotten by Friday the damage will be minimal, but if still in the news in a week's time could cost him a majority.  Also when it comes to lowering housing prices, densification not building in the greenbelt is the solution.  They just means more sprawl and longer commutes.  Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl and is not nearly as liveable a city as many European ones or even some American ones like San Francisco or New York City which have less sprawl.

[136or142]

Given my disdain for these sorts of questions (though I now get the point more) I thought of this as a joke, but there might be something to it:

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

[DC Al Fine]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Dumb move and cannot see this helping him.  How much damage it will do is tough to say, but I suspect a lot will depend on how long this stays in the news cycle.  If it is forgotten by Friday the damage will be minimal, but if still in the news in a week's time could cost him a majority.  Also when it comes to lowering housing prices, densification not building in the greenbelt is the solution.  They just means more sprawl and longer commutes.  Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl and is not nearly as liveable a city as many European ones or even some American ones like San Francisco or New York City which have less sprawl.

You just listed reasons why it's bad policy, not why it's bad politics. Bad policy and popularity are not mutually exclusive. Is this an untouchable issue or something?

[DC Al Fine]

Given my disdain for these sorts of questions (though I now get the point more) I thought of this as a joke, but there might be something to it:

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Two guesses:

1) Late 50's male. Lives in Oshawa, Brant or similar. Lost a high paying job in the auto sector in 2009. Back on his feet now but feels left behind by society and that Ford is his kind of guy.

2) Early 40's female. Voted Rae in 1995 in a downtown Toronto riding as a UofT student. Got married, had kids, moved to Vaughan and started going to mass again sporadically. Worries about her commute and hydro prices a lot.