Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198902 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #725 on: May 01, 2018, 02:00:31 PM »

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Dumb move and cannot see this helping him.  How much damage it will do is tough to say, but I suspect a lot will depend on how long this stays in the news cycle.  If it is forgotten by Friday the damage will be minimal, but if still in the news in a week's time could cost him a majority.  Also when it comes to lowering housing prices, densification not building in the greenbelt is the solution.  They just means more sprawl and longer commutes.  Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl and is not nearly as liveable a city as many European ones or even some American ones like San Francisco or New York City which have less sprawl.

You just listed reasons why it's bad policy, not why it's bad politics. Bad policy and popularity are not mutually exclusive. Is this an untouchable issue or something?

The Greenbelt is extremely popular so I am not sure how it will benefit the Tories in any way shape or form.  Might not be the number one policy so people may still vote them in spite of this, but I cannot see it helping them.  Whether it costs them their majority or not is a whole different story and I suspect it will depend on how long it remains in the news.  The longer it stays in the news the more damaging, the quicker the channel is changed the less damaging.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #726 on: May 01, 2018, 02:21:21 PM »

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Given that planning disasters are a Toronto tradition by this point, I guess this will prove to be grimly popular?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #727 on: May 01, 2018, 02:22:11 PM »

Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl...

So is Toronto. And with, bluntly, considerably less excuse.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #728 on: May 01, 2018, 03:36:12 PM »

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Given that planning disasters are a Toronto tradition by this point, I guess this will prove to be grimly popular?

Probably not in Old Toronto, maybe as you get farther out.

This makes me think; the Greenbelt is largely a conurbation stretching from Northumberland, to Niagara Counties, mostly around TO and not really In TO. So, is there a big push, a big demand for this land to be given up to developers in the 905?
This will play well with the rich, corporate type, developers and many in the real estate employee I suspect. Its hugely popular with younger voters, urban voters and from what I hear farmers (the greenbelt protects farmland as well as parkland) so Ford doesn't really lose much unless this is just overall popular in the 905. Then, it's kind of a dumb move since he risks losing more voters then gaining money-men.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #729 on: May 01, 2018, 03:41:24 PM »

The issue on the greenbelt is closed as Ford has now promised to not to touch it.  Yes it is a flip flop and looks bad, but would have been worse to let the issue continue to dominate the headlines.  His biggest risk is he cannot afford too many other flip flops.  One or two will not kill a campaign especially 37 days out, but multiple ones will.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #730 on: May 01, 2018, 03:45:40 PM »

The issue on the greenbelt is closed as Ford has now promised to not to touch it.  Yes it is a flip flop and looks bad, but would have been worse to let the issue continue to dominate the headlines.  His biggest risk is he cannot afford too many other flip flops.  One or two will not kill a campaign especially 37 days out, but multiple ones will.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-wynne-greenbelt-development-election-1.4643189

Yup... see this is why they (PC party) are controlling him so hard (no media bus, their own media)! things like this are going to happen more and more and the election gets going. He is is own brand, towing the PC line is already looking hard for the man.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #731 on: May 01, 2018, 04:36:04 PM »

The issue on the greenbelt is closed as Ford has now promised to not to touch it.  Yes it is a flip flop and looks bad, but would have been worse to let the issue continue to dominate the headlines.  His biggest risk is he cannot afford too many other flip flops.  One or two will not kill a campaign especially 37 days out, but multiple ones will.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-wynne-greenbelt-development-election-1.4643189

Yup... see this is why they (PC party) are controlling him so hard (no media bus, their own media)! things like this are going to happen more and more and the election gets going. He is is own brand, towing the PC line is already looking hard for the man.

Well I'm really glad I questioned Miles reasoning so quickly Tongue
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adma
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« Reply #732 on: May 01, 2018, 07:52:49 PM »

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #733 on: May 01, 2018, 09:11:39 PM »

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.

you don't think he voted for himself in 1990?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #734 on: May 02, 2018, 12:02:26 AM »

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.

you don't think he voted for himself in 1990?

There were lots who voted NDP in 1990 who will be voting for Ford in 2018, I think this was more a reference to those who voted NDP in 1995 and will vote for Ford in 2018 which there are far fewer of.  Giorgio Mammoliti is off course one example.
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adma
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« Reply #735 on: May 02, 2018, 07:03:22 AM »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #736 on: May 02, 2018, 07:19:38 AM »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

Yes.
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Krago
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« Reply #737 on: May 02, 2018, 08:57:11 AM »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

There were four ridings where the NDP received more votes in 1995 than in 1990:

- Cochrane North
- Cochrane South
- Parry Sound
- Sault Ste. Marie

They would have been re-elected easily if it hadn't been for those other 126 ridings.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #738 on: May 02, 2018, 10:59:41 AM »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

Yes.

Ahh, sorry. One would presume there would be a few 'Ford nation' voters who voted NDP in 1995.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #739 on: May 02, 2018, 12:27:48 PM »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

There were four ridings where the NDP received more votes in 1995 than in 1990:

- Cochrane North
- Cochrane South
- Parry Sound
- Sault Ste. Marie

They would have been re-elected easily if it hadn't been for those other 126 ridings.


Re:  Sault Ste. Marie.

1) NDP government saved Algoma Steel

2) The Soo has weird voting patterns
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #740 on: May 02, 2018, 05:47:30 PM »

For Parry Sound, the Greens got the protest vote in 1990. Not sure what happened in Cochrane though. Probably some mine got saved?

ETA: One more reason for the Soo, and Cochrane South is the collapse of the COR vote.  They didn't have a candidate in Cochrane North though.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #741 on: May 02, 2018, 08:02:21 PM »

NDP popularity in much of Northern Ontario increased from 1990 to 1995 as a result of several government actions. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #742 on: May 03, 2018, 11:04:58 AM »

Given my disdain for these sorts of questions (though I now get the point more) I thought of this as a joke, but there might be something to it:

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Actually probably more than some think as people do tend to become more conservative as they age.  Generally speaking each election (except for wave ones) more people move from left wing to right wing parties than the other away around.  The reason the right doesn't gain is of those who die in between elections, they are more likely to be conservative voters than the general population, while amongst first time voters, they are far more likely to go for progressive voters.  In 2008 Obama and McCain tied amongst those who voted in 2004, it was those who didn't vote in 2004 that swung significantly behind Obama and thus his big win.  Same in the UK as there were many Blair-May voters in 2017, but few Tory 90s-Corbyn voters.  Corbyn only did as well as Blair in popular vote due to winning big amongst those who couldn't vote during the Blair era as well as Tory voters from the 90s were more likely to have died between then and 2017 than Labour voters.  Heck even in Canada, Harper didn't lose that many votes, Trudeau won primarily by overwhelmingly picking up those who didn't vote in 2011 but did in 2015.

So in summary lots of these but not because Ford has any crossover appeal, but simply because people become more conservative as they age.  On the other hand, there are probably more Harris voters from 1995 percentage wise who have died since then than Rae voters.  And likewise amongst those not old enough to vote in 1995, NDP will do better than amongst those who were while PCs will do worse. 
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toaster
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« Reply #743 on: May 04, 2018, 05:55:57 AM »

I don't think this is as true in Canada as it is in the US.  Definitely doesn't follow with the downtown Toronto latte crowd, or the union workers in Timmins or Sudbury.  And in fact, there have been surveys that show that once modest-income earners in Canada hit 65+ then end up being more "progressive" (i.e., understand the need for subsidies to keep them afloat).

I also don't think it's that people get more conservative as they age, it's that every generation that comes next is much more liberal, so they "appear" more Conservative. 
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #744 on: May 04, 2018, 08:30:32 AM »

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age. Cool
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mileslunn
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« Reply #745 on: May 04, 2018, 10:31:38 AM »

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age. Cool

I think it varies with person, just saying in general.  If this didn't happen conservative parties would be in major trouble when you consider there are very few elections they win the 18-30 cohort. 

I think the major reason is more economics actually.  When one goes to college or university and graduates with a lot of debt, the left is generally quite appealing.  But once one gets married, has a stable job and starts paying taxes, buys a home, and has children their outlook changes.  In particular often renters are more left wing than home owners so the age when someone buys a home tends to change things.  I've also noticed the gender gap is much bigger with those who are not married than are married so I wonder if amongst females some become more conservative due to influence of the husband.  Off course the opposite can happen too, but seems the former is more common.  Usually people's earnings tend to peak around 55 so at least when it comes to fiscal conservativism, I think people in their 50s not seniors are the most fiscally conservative.

On social issues, as one ages they are more entrenched in their views thus less open to change as opposed to when one is younger so as mentioned each generation being more socially liberal is part of it.  Too conservatives rarely talk about rolling back the clock, just opposed any further social progress thus someone who maybe favoured social changes in the past, might find today's too much as when young your views are less entrenched so one is more open to change but this decreases as one ages.

Certainly it's not as extreme as say in the UK where the age gap is quite large.  In the US, the age gap is actually more due to racial breakdown as amongst seniors, only 15% are non-white whereas amongst millennials 40% are non-white so if you look at changes as people age by race, people do get more conservative as they age but the gap is much smaller than what it looks at first.  In Continental Europe it seems younger voters are more going to non-traditional parties while older voters favour more established ones so whether that favours left or right depends on whose running where.  In Eastern Europe ironically, parties on the left are strongest amongst older voters while younger voters tend to be the most right wing so sort of the opposite.
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adma
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« Reply #746 on: May 04, 2018, 08:37:18 PM »

I definitely know of a lot of Robarts/Davis-era Tories who migrated to the Liberals or beyond once their party (or federally speaking, its successor) swung rightward...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #747 on: May 04, 2018, 08:53:29 PM »

I definitely know of a lot of Robarts/Davis-era Tories who migrated to the Liberals or beyond once their party (or federally speaking, its successor) swung rightward...

That's true but less to do with them becoming less right wing and more how much their parties swung to the right. In Atlantic Canada where they haven't swung to the right you would see less of this.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #748 on: May 05, 2018, 05:23:11 AM »

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age. Cool

It's gotten debunked for the States where one's party is more or less set after three elections, but I'm not sure that's the case in Canada. Our riding trends seem to indicate that it's not set in stone. E.g. The Tories pulling 40% in heavily Jewish and Italian ridings in a bad year that Chretien used to win with 60-70%.
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adma
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« Reply #749 on: May 05, 2018, 02:52:48 PM »

And in places like Markham, you'll find that the WASPY old neighbourhoods that were once dependably Tory have swung leftward, while the Asian ethnoburbia which surrounds them has gone rightward...
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