Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

I think it depends on country.  In the US the age divide is more due to racial breakdown as younger Americans are much less white than older Americans.  Canada it certainly does exist federally and also in some provinces such as BC and Alberta.  I find its more noticeable in the Western provinces than Eastern ones so could be a generational change as many have suggested Alberta in 20 years from now will be a lot more favourable to progressive parties than it is now.  BC could be more due to the fact older voters remember the NDP from the 90s and in same cases even the Barrett government whereas few millennials do. 

Where it is really strong is the UK and in Canada it is nowhere nearly as strong as the UK.  Conservatives don't do as poorly amongst millennials as they do in the UK, but don't dominate seniors to the same degree either.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/tanya-granic-allen-no-longer-an-ontario-pc-party-candidate-doug-ford-says-1.4650360

Tanya Granic Allen will no longer be a PC party candidate. She was previously running in Mississauga Centre.

[mileslunn]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/tanya-granic-allen-no-longer-an-ontario-pc-party-candidate-doug-ford-says-1.4650360

Tanya Granic Allen will no longer be a PC party candidate. She was previously running in Mississauga Centre.

Probably a smart move.  She was pretty nutty and extreme so her being on the ballot would just hurt the PCs.  The types who support her will probably vote PC anyways and if they decide not to, there aren't as many hardcore social conservatives as some think.  True many in the ethnic community are socially conservative, but it rarely seems to play a big role in how they vote.  Never mind amongst children of immigrants, I've found most are quite socially liberal so the stereotype is more that than necessarily the reality.  Just because one comes from a socially conservative country where such views are the norm doesn't mean they will hold them. 

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age.

It's gotten debunked for the States where one's party is more or less set after three elections, but I'm not sure that's the case in Canada. Our riding trends seem to indicate that it's not set in stone. E.g. The Tories pulling 40% in heavily Jewish and Italian ridings in a bad year that Chretien used to win with 60-70%.

Even for the States, this is complicated. There's a piece about it in the NY Times here; it's true that the effect is overrated, and events during adolescence and young adulthood are formative, but still a lot of cohorts have become a bit more right wing as they age.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is the first debate.  Rarely do debates change much, usually just re-enforce what people already think, but occasionally they do.  This can help give momentum or stop for a certain party.  That being said the election is still 31 days away and there is another election so plenty of time to recover from a lousy debate.  Think Obama's first debate in 2012 was a lousy one but did better in the subsequent two thus why he was able to win.  My thoughts on each are as follows:

Doug Ford: He just needs to come out unscathed.  His biggest problem is he has a short temper and its easy for people to get under his skin so he needs to not come across as too aggressive which could especially hurt him with female voters.  Also he should brush up on his knowledge of things as both Wynne and Horwath no their facts well so being caught in a lie or giving false information doesn't help.  The good news for Ford is people have low expectations of him so he wins by not losing.

Kathleen Wynne:  She needs to do two things: 1. attack Ford hard and portray him as too risky, while ignore Andrea Horwath so as to make her the one people need to vote for if they want to stop Ford.

Andrea Horwath: She needs to be positive but also go after Ford will ignore Wynne.  She needs to make the case that for those wanting change, she is the better one to deliver the change people want.  Otherwise she needs to find a way to connect with both change voters (who are mostly supporting Doug Ford) and progressives who want to stop Ford (which are equally split between Wynne and her).

Also Abacus will be coming out with a poll.  A sneek peak shows most don't want the greenbelt tampered with including PC supporters.  Although tough to figure out the horserace numbers, doing some number crunching might allow one to guess where the PCs are.

Of all voters, 66% oppose development, 19% support, and 15% don't care.  Of PC voters it is 53% oppose, 29% support, and 18% don't care.  Amongst OLP/NDP voters it is 74% oppose, 17 support, and 9% don't care.  Don't show undecided so looking at the support numbers that would suggest PCs have fallen a bit, looking at just support numbers suggest they are probably not too far off where they were last time maybe a bit lower, while looking at don't care would suggest a bigger PC lead that is why it would be nice to know what undecided voters think although I kind of think the don't care is higher amongst undecided voters than decided.

[Krago]

Andrea Horwath: She needs to be positive but also go after Ford will ignore Wynne.  She needs to make the case that for those wanting change, she is the better one to deliver the change people want.  Otherwise she needs to find a way to connect with both change voters (who are mostly supporting Doug Ford) and progressives who want to stop Ford (which are equally split between Wynne and her).

Completely disagree.

The imminent Ontario election will be split into two parts.  The first half will be the 'Progressive Primary' to decide who will be the Left's champion against FordNation, while the second half will be the fight to decide who will form the government.  

At the start of the 2015 federal election, the Liberals flooded the airwaves (in the GTA/SW Ontario anyway) with a radio ad that went straight after Mulcair and the NDP (]https://www.liberal.ca/liberals-launch-two-candidates-radio-ad/]).  After they passed the NDP in the polls, they re-directed their aim against Harper.

I think Horwath should follow the same path.  Though the NDP is only a few points behind the Liberals, the gap is entirely due to Liberals defecting to the PCs.  The NDP is treading water (22.7% in 2011, 23.7% in 2014, 23.3% (Grenier) in 2018) and needs to attack the Liberals on their deathbed conversion to 'socialist' values.
  
The Liberals are planning their usual MiB strategy: "We're your first, last and only line of defense against the worst scum of the universe."  Only if (when?) the NDP starts inching ahead of the Wynne gang into second place can Horwath start attacking Doug Ford.


ETA: Looks like the NDP move into second place happened sooner than I expected:
The Maclean’s-Pollara Ontario Election Poll: Welcome to third place, Liberals

[DL]

Poll shocker from the usually Liberal friendly Pollara

PCs 40%
NDP 30%
OLP 23%

And th poll notes that most of the remaining Liberals would vote NDP if it was clear that Horwath had the best chance of stopping Ford

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-welcome-to-third-place-liberals/

[adma]

Wouldn't mind monitoring what positive/negative Tory momentum such figures show--though I've always felt that 40% was likelier than 45%...

[Hatman 🍁]

While I don't think those poll numbers are quite accurate, I do feel the NDP is in second place right now.

[lilTommy]

Poll shocker from the usually Liberal friendly Pollara

PCs 40%
NDP 30%
OLP 23%

And th poll notes that most of the remaining Liberals would vote NDP if it was clear that Horwath had the best chance of stopping Ford

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-welcome-to-third-place-liberals/

What also has to be encouraging for the NDP is second choices:
NDP - 33%
Undecided - 25%
Green - 16%
PC - 11%
OLP - 11%
Another - 5%

This has to be worrisome for both the PCs and Liberals; the PC are basically at their ceiling of 40-45%, with very little room as they are really no ones second choice. The Liberals, if they are stuck at 20-25%, is basically their ceiling as well. The NDP is so far the second choice of a third of voters, AND with undecideds being the next largest group at a quarter, still could have potential for room to grow.
Also bad for the Liberals if the NDP is at 30%:
"... Liberal supporters who want to block Ford were asked: “And, during the campaign, if it looked like Andrea Horwath and the NDP had the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PCs from winning the election, how likely are you to switch your vote to Andrea Horwath and the NDP?” Fully 78 per cent of those Liberal supporters who are motivated by a desire to stop Ford said they’d probably switch their vote to the NDP in such a scenario, against only 22 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t."

[_]

So the NDP begin to slowly push their way up against the PCs, good.

Today is the First Debate too?  Is there any site that'll be streaming it?

[DL]

So the NDP begin to slowly push their way up against the PCs, good.

Today is the First Debate too?  Is there any site that'll be streaming it?

City TV will be streaming it

[mileslunn]

Abacus Data will be out around 3:00 PM this afternoon so interesting to see if they confirm the NDP momentum or not as this is Pollara's first poll.  Also don't have the crosstabs yet but I suspect they will have that later as it will be interesting to see the demographic and regional breakdown.

[DC Al Fine]

Poll shocker from the usually Liberal friendly Pollara

PCs 40%
NDP 30%
OLP 23%

And th poll notes that most of the remaining Liberals would vote NDP if it was clear that Horwath had the best chance of stopping Ford

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-welcome-to-third-place-liberals/

What also has to be encouraging for the NDP is second choices:
NDP - 33%
Undecided - 25%
Green - 16%
PC - 11%
OLP - 11%
Another - 5%

This has to be worrisome for both the PCs and Liberals; the PC are basically at their ceiling of 40-45%, with very little room as they are really no ones second choice. The Liberals, if they are stuck at 20-25%, is basically their ceiling as well. The NDP is so far the second choice of a third of voters, AND with undecideds being the next largest group at a quarter, still could have potential for room to grow.
Also bad for the Liberals if the NDP is at 30%:
"... Liberal supporters who want to block Ford were asked: “And, during the campaign, if it looked like Andrea Horwath and the NDP had the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PCs from winning the election, how likely are you to switch your vote to Andrea Horwath and the NDP?” Fully 78 per cent of those Liberal supporters who are motivated by a desire to stop Ford said they’d probably switch their vote to the NDP in such a scenario, against only 22 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t."

Well of course people who want to stop Ford are willing to vote strategically The real question is what % of Liberals are seriously concerned about stopping him. I imagine it's a lot (most?) of them but the % makes a big difference.

Lastly I think a certain amount of skepticism is a good idea for these strategic voting questions. The Liberals aren't going to drop to the single digits like that result would imply.

[Oryxslayer]

Abacus Data will be out around 3:00 PM this afternoon so interesting to see if they confirm the NDP momentum or not as this is Pollara's first poll.  Also don't have the crosstabs yet but I suspect they will have that later as it will be interesting to see the demographic and regional breakdown.

Yeah, I suspect its an outlier in regards to the NDP - though it may be true in a week. The important data point is that a lot of Lib voters are happy to go for NDP. If Horwath can consolidate the left at this debate, then this poll might prove accurate.

Or maybe I eat crow at 3PM

[DL]

FWIW on Friday Quito Maggi the CEO of Mainstreet Research tweeted the following:


Quito Maggi
‏ @quito_maggi
May 3

Seeing some interesting #onpoli results the last few days, NDP in second in a number of ridings where they are traditionally not competitive, could point to further movement, stay tuned

[mileslunn]

I think the one consensus we do get from polls is PCs are clearly in the lead and have the most resilent base, but Ford is quite polarizing and party has little room for growth (although they just need to hold what they have now anyways) while Ford is seen as the best manager on economic issues.  NDP is in second or third, a lot don't have an opinion on Horwath and they have by far the most room for growth although their ceiling is slightly lower than the PCs but higher than the Liberals.  On social issues the NDP is seen as the best party to deal with them thus ballot question could matter.  Also clearly in second in Southwestern Ontario while in first or second in Northern Ontario.  Struggle in 905 belt and Eastern Ontario however which have always been weak spots.  Liberals have the lowest ceiling, highly unpopular and little going for them as well as a strong desire for change.  Still competitive in the 416 but trailing everywhere else.  Both NDP and Liberals will need a strong millennial turnout to win whereas PCs don't and in fact would do better if there is a poor millennial turnout.

[mileslunn]

Poll shocker from the usually Liberal friendly Pollara

PCs 40%
NDP 30%
OLP 23%

And th poll notes that most of the remaining Liberals would vote NDP if it was clear that Horwath had the best chance of stopping Ford

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-welcome-to-third-place-liberals/

What also has to be encouraging for the NDP is second choices:
NDP - 33%
Undecided - 25%
Green - 16%
PC - 11%
OLP - 11%
Another - 5%

This has to be worrisome for both the PCs and Liberals; the PC are basically at their ceiling of 40-45%, with very little room as they are really no ones second choice. The Liberals, if they are stuck at 20-25%, is basically their ceiling as well. The NDP is so far the second choice of a third of voters, AND with undecideds being the next largest group at a quarter, still could have potential for room to grow.
Also bad for the Liberals if the NDP is at 30%:
"... Liberal supporters who want to block Ford were asked: “And, during the campaign, if it looked like Andrea Horwath and the NDP had the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PCs from winning the election, how likely are you to switch your vote to Andrea Horwath and the NDP?” Fully 78 per cent of those Liberal supporters who are motivated by a desire to stop Ford said they’d probably switch their vote to the NDP in such a scenario, against only 22 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t."

Well of course people who want to stop Ford are willing to vote strategically The real question is what % of Liberals are seriously concerned about stopping him. I imagine it's a lot (most?) of them but the % makes a big difference.

Lastly I think a certain amount of skepticism is a good idea for these strategic voting questions. The Liberals aren't going to drop to the single digits like that result would imply.

While you can never say never, I cannot see the Liberals falling below high teens which you consider how resilient their base is in Toronto and Ottawa.  As for NDP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get over 30%.  Cracking the 40% mark will be challenging and I doubt that will happen but if the PCs mess up, I think an NDP win would be something along these lines: 38% NDP, 36% PC, 21% Liberal.  Certainly won't be a Bob Rae type landslide as the PCs are much stronger than they were in 1990 or even a Notley type win as you had a perfect split on the right, but a win similar to Glen Clark in 1996 or Roy Romanow in 1999 in terms of size seems plausible albeit still unlikely at this point.

[mileslunn]

Abacus is out and does show the NDP gaining much like Pollara although more the PCs slipping than Liberals as Liberal vote is steady while it appears the PCs have taken a hit, probably over greenbelt saga.  Obviously over the next week will be interesting to watch but I think the NDP has some momentum, but their big problem is even in Abacus their support is mostly amongst younger voters, amongst older voters Liberals still in second place.

PC 35%
Liberal 29%
NDP 29%

Definitely bad numbers for the PCs, but we saw this earlier with Forum so will be interesting if these hold or do they recover.  Ford seems to have a rock solid base, but limited room to growth.  NDP gains were mostly from undecided voters, not PC or Liberal.  Also included a fresh sample from a different panel which seems more favourable to the Liberals but still good news for the NDP

PC 34%
Liberal 30%
NDP 26%

Seems the Greenbelt thing which was during both polls has likely hurt Ford thus why his numbers have fallen.  Also explains the firing of Granic Allen and a few flip flops like safe injection sites, otherwise trying to put out fires before they fester.

[Hatman 🍁]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

[mileslunn]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

That makes sense.  When is Ekos coming out next?

The regionals for Toronto and 905 sound about right, however I have a tough time PCs being at only 32% in Eastern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario considering how strong they are in rural ridings.  Likewise some others have put them close to the 50% mark or slightly over in those areas (doubt they are over 50% so best to take the average).

[lilTommy]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

That makes sense.  When is Ekos coming out next?

The regionals for Toronto and 905 sound about right, however I have a tough time PCs being at only 32% in Eastern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario considering how strong they are in rural ridings.  Likewise some others have put them close to the 50% mark or slightly over in those areas (doubt they are over 50% so best to take the average).

http://onpulse.ca/blog/new-data-as-first-debate-looms-ford-and-pcs-dip-as-ndp-rises

Eastern and Southwestern Ontario are very different though: SW has much more of an industrial history, more rust belt with higher rates of Unionization in smaller manufacturing towns. Eastern ontario does not have this more NDP-like friendly history; the east was more influenced by religious/linguistic traditions around Franco-ontarians, the rural nature is much more agricultural around dairy more then in the SW which was cash crops like tobacco. I'm sure there is more but, the two rural characters are not the same.
BUT the NDP at 42%? I like it, but wow that would be a huge # for the NDP, and a Liberal gutting.   

[Hatman 🍁]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

That makes sense.  When is Ekos coming out next?

We've been doing some internal polling. I'm not sure if we're going to release the data, though.

[DL]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

I'm not so sure about that...two weeks ago both Forum and Mainstreet released IVR polls done at exactly the same time...Forum had the NDP at 27% and the Liberals at 21% and Mainstreet had the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 21%...that is even more of a difference than we see in these two online polls.

[mileslunn]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

I'm not so sure about that...two weeks ago both Forum and Mainstreet released IVR polls done at exactly the same time...Forum had the NDP at 27% and the Liberals at 21% and Mainstreet had the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 21%...that is even more of a difference than we see in these two online polls.

If you look at Forum's raw numbers they have consistently shown the NDP in third, its when the weight them they jump to second. 

Raw numbers are PC 528, Liberal 245, and NDP 219 so those are not too far off other IVR polls.