Ontario 2018 election

[DL]

Everybody weights...we don't know what Mainstreets "raw numbers" are since they don't publish them...all IVR polls tend to massively oversample older people and undersample younger people so you HAVE to weight. I would be shocked if Mainstreet didnt also demographically weight their data

[mileslunn]

Everybody weights...we don't know what Mainstreets "raw numbers" are since they don't publish them...all IVR polls tend to massively oversample older people and undersample younger people so you HAVE to weight. I would be shocked if Mainstreet didnt also demographically weight their data

True enough and I think a big thing will be do millennials show up or not.  IVR oversamples old people but then they are more likely to vote too.  Last time around most online polls overestimated NDP support while most IVR underestimated.  IVR had them around only 20% while online were around 26% and they ended up at 23%.

[mileslunn]

More details on Pollara  http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-doug-fords-lingering-advantage/ .  Actually it seems Horwath's strong numbers are largely due to a 32 point lead in Hamilton-Niagara (probably due to small sample), mind you PCs are at 38% in Toronto and 49% in Ottawa which seem on the high side.  Big gender gap, no surprise.  Amongst immigrants and children of immigrants PCs are ahead, but amongst visible minorities Liberals lead (NDP in third amongst all three so hurts them in the GTA).  That would suggest either PC support amongst immigrants is mostly white immigrants like Polish, Italians, Portuguese and perhaps some less noticeable like Germans and British or they lead amongst visible minorities born abroad, but are doing poorly amongst those born in Canada (I've noticed visible minorities born in Canada due to tend to be a lot more progressive than parents).  Mainstreet will have a GTA poll on the debate, not sure if they will have horserace numbers tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, if a pollster is weighting by census data, than they are massively oversampling young people, considering they are less likely to vote. The question is, how many of them will show up.

Who is currently in second place depends entirely on how you weigh millennials.

[King of Kensington]

I thought Andrea Horwath rocked the City TV debate.

[_]

I thought Andrea Horwath rocked the City TV debate.

Is there a recording of the debate or something I could watch?

[adma]

While you can never say never, I cannot see the Liberals falling below high teens which you consider how resilient their base is in Toronto and Ottawa.  As for NDP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get over 30%.  Cracking the 40% mark will be challenging and I doubt that will happen but if the PCs mess up, I think an NDP win would be something along these lines: 38% NDP, 36% PC, 21% Liberal.  Certainly won't be a Bob Rae type landslide as the PCs are much stronger than they were in 1990 or even a Notley type win as you had a perfect split on the right, but a win similar to Glen Clark in 1996 or Roy Romanow in 1999 in terms of size seems plausible albeit still unlikely at this point.

Or maybe even more comparable, Schreyer in 1969.

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi of mainstreet has tweeted out the post debate poll.  Looks like Horwath won amongst old city viewers while Ford amongst Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough.  It appears Wynne underperformed in the debate relative to her vote intention, Horwath overperformed while Ford held onto his own (which is all he needed to do).  Will be interesting what the next batch of polls say.  Also interesting if things are tightening or was Ford's stupid greenbelt comments what caused a blip.  Either way if you are a Liberal its pretty tough to feel optimistic about things at the moment.

[adma]

Anecdotally speaking, I think Ford was the big loser (getting caught in Prentice-esque mansplainy traps, et al) and Horwath the winner; it remains to be seen whether, given his kind of following, such "losing" bears itself out in polls (or even if Ford "won by losing", so to speak).

A most interesting thing *outside* the debate, though: amidst the scrums of sign-waving supporters were those of Tanya Granic Allen.  They evidently aren't laying down so easily...

[lilTommy]

I think the "unscientific" polling they did overall shows how bad it will be for Wynne:
Before the Debate, who would you vote for:
Ford - 42%
Horwath - 27%
Wynne - 24%

After the Debate:
Horwath - 43%
Ford - 39%
Wynne - 14%

BUT if anyone watched the Debate, Ford did not perform well; he checked out, literally was blank and just standing there for the first two rounds of debates basically. Wynne pulled him into the debate. After that he was nothing but simplistic comments with no dept, he kept getting called out on the lack of detail in anything he said. Not adding any details meant he was constantly attached over this, particularly from Horwath who called him out to detail his cuts "efficiencies" so much so that she even said roughly that "At least Harris and Hudak had the guts to tell people what they were going to cut" But no major gaffs other then that "you have a nice smile" comment, and his deer-in-headlights moment.

Wynne was, OK, she performed her best when she was attacking Ford, obviously. But overall I thought she looked weak, tired and frustrated. With exasperated sighs (through smiles) when called out on part policies, particularly well by Horwath. She has the problem of getting the good things out, even when she has a chance, she never really did, she was always on the defense. And this weakness is why she failed and the poll showed that (again unscientific twitter)

Horwath was indeed the winner. Most concise most detailed, Had the best closing statement and overall performed very consistently well in the on-on-ones. She forced herself in there to prevent the Ford-Wynne battle that both of the other two want. In fact she used some of their battles to plug the NDP tag line of "you don't have to vote for bad or worse" In one of the Ford-Wynne exchanges around backroomers this was set up for Howrath perfectly, jumping in with "this is the problem right here" phrasing. I think there were a couple of missed opportunities around transit (calling out both Ford and Wynne as the killers of TransitCity) but overall I was impressed and I was already voting NDP.

[adma]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

[DL]

You are comparing two previous Mainstreet polls of all of Ontario with the quick post debate poll just of the City of Toronto

[Hatman 🍁]

Off topic a bit, but the NDP have finally got around to nominating a candidate in Kiiwetinoong a riding they should be a slam dunk in. I wonder what has taken so long? The riding may not have a lot of people, but is incredibly difficult to canvass (few roads, you have to fly from community to community), so I wish they had nominated someone a month ago to get a head start. The Liberals and Tories have had candidates for a while.

[DC Al Fine]

Off topic a bit, but the NDP have finally got around to nominating a candidate in Kiiwetinoong a riding they should be a slam dunk in. I wonder what has taken so long? The riding may not have a lot of people, but is incredibly difficult to canvass (few roads, you have to fly from community to community), so if wish they had nominated someone month ago to get a head start. The Liberals and Tories have had candidates for a while.

Yeah that's odd. I know the NDP is slow to nominate candidates, but I always chalked it up to having to run more sacrificial lambs than the Tories and Liberals. You'd think it'd be easy to find a local mayor or councilor early to run for your safe seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Just watched some debate highlights on CBC. The lack of podiums was weird and reminds me too much of the 2016 GOP primary.

[mileslunn]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

The previous poll was the whole province, this is just the 416 so actually the PCs were slightly lower in the last poll in the 416.  If the PCs are north of 40% in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York, they would be well on their way to a majority with those numbers.  Off course the election is still 30 days away so a lot can happen between now and then.

[lilTommy]

Off topic a bit, but the NDP have finally got around to nominating a candidate in Kiiwetinoong a riding they should be a slam dunk in. I wonder what has taken so long? The riding may not have a lot of people, but is incredibly difficult to canvass (few roads, you have to fly from community to community), so if wish they had nominated someone month ago to get a head start. The Liberals and Tories have had candidates for a while.

Yeah that's odd. I know the NDP is slow to nominate candidates, but I always chalked it up to having to run more sacrificial lambs than the Tories and Liberals. You'd think it'd be easy to find a local mayor or councilor early to run for your safe seat.

I thought the same, I read an article that they have "Some interested candidates" but were being vetted. I wonder why that took so long?
For the NDP, another riding I am worried about now is Brampton North, this is very winnable yet nothing? I don't see a candidate or nomination meeting?

[mileslunn]

Ipsos is out showing PCs well in front, NDP narrowly in second, while Liberals in third.  More bad news for Liberals

PC 40%
NDP 29%
Liberals 26%

[DC Al Fine]

A couple more points:

1) I agree with the consensus that Horwath won and Ford lost. I will add that Wynne lost in the sense of coming off as a desperate incumbent and failing to steal any thunder from Horwath, which she needs to do to avoid total disaster.

2) Re Allen: There is a lot of tension between conservative parties and the socon movement right now. Socons are too unpopular to embrace but too important to the conservative winning coalition to disavow entirely. Thats not to say we're on the brink of a realignment but I'm hearing grumbling about the Tories that I wasn't hearing five years ago. Something has to give eventually, although Im not quite sure what that "something" will be.

[mileslunn]

A couple more points:

1) I agree with the consensus that Horwath won and Ford lost. I will add that Wynne lost in the sense of coming off as a desperate incumbent and failing to steal any thunder from Horwath, which she needs to do to avoid total disaster.

2) Re Allen: There is a lot of tension between conservative parties and the socon movement right now. Socons are too unpopular to embrace but too important to the conservative winning coalition to disavow entirely. Thats not to say we're on the brink of a realignment but I'm hearing grumbling about the Tories that I wasn't hearing five years ago. Something has to give eventually, although Im not quite sure what that "something" will be.

I suspect if there is a switch to PR anywhere you will see the two split into separate parties and ironically under PR it would help not hurt them.  I oppose PR myself, but there seems to be a strong push for it so wouldn't be surprised if one province goes to it.  If it is a disaster it will sort itself out as they will realize they have no choice.  In addition there is also demographic churn to so as older voters die off and new ones become of age that will diminish their clout.  As for recent immigrants, that is greatly overplayed.  Many maybe social conservatives, but its rarely a major driving issue in how they vote as most understand when they move to Canada it is a more socially liberal country so no real interest in trying to change it.  Never mind the fact a lot of the loudest socons are often racist too scares a lot of them away.

[MaxQue]

The PC crowd outside the debate hall was in fact paid actors.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

[mileslunn]

The PC crowd outside the debate hall was in fact paid actors.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

Not sure if everyone were, but definitely some were and based on the timeframe also below minimum wage too (no that isn't illegal as they are contractors not employees, but still bad optics).  I don't believe Ford planned this, it looks like it was Meredith Cartwright who did (ironically she the Liberal candidate who lost the nomination to Bob Rae back in 2007), but incredibly stupid.  All parties have candidates who do stupid things so one or two won't sink a party, but if it happens often enough and more importantly it is the same party that has all the candidates doing stupid things it can cause damage.

Also whomever's idea this was is incredibly stupid.  Anybody who knows anything about the acting community knows that not many of them likely support the PCs so this was almost certain to get leaked.  In fact I am surprised some agreed to it.  You would have to pay me more than the campaign spending limits to get me to be an actor for a particular party especially one I didn't support.

[adma]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

The previous poll was the whole province, this is just the 416 so actually the PCs were slightly lower in the last poll in the 416.  If the PCs are north of 40% in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York, they would be well on their way to a majority with those numbers.  Off course the election is still 30 days away so a lot can happen between now and then.

Yeah misread/misinterpreted the 2000-*Ontario*-residents thing.  So in the end, it's just Mainstreet being Mainstreet again, thumb on the right-populist scale and all...

[Hatman 🍁]

Just did the political compass, and here is my result: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?hash=fa8df176b09b1bd7dfbaa6322c34a868d85e13f215258803117CNgT8

I guess I'm now a moderate! :S

[mileslunn]

Here are mine, so moderate as well but closest to PCs although more centrist, which is what I thought.  https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=5aec859355b2934ddf834be5ac454309d5581c851525883429