Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198907 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #850 on: May 12, 2018, 08:56:17 AM »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley
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mileslunn
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« Reply #851 on: May 12, 2018, 02:00:13 PM »

New Mainstreet poll confirms the NDP surge and Liberal collapse

PCs 42% (down 3)
NDP 28% (up 7)
Libs 22% (down 6)
Greens 6% (up 1)
Other 2%

Regionals are quite interesting as it seems while the PCs have fallen a bit, their seat count wouldn't change much although they have much less room for error than they did earlier.  NDP is in second almost everywhere but not to continue their momentum before they start flipping a whole wack of seats but a slight uptick would do it.  Liberals are in bad shape and I guess the question is how low can they go.  I cannot see them falling below 15% otherwise high teens I see as their floor.  Also for the NDP, getting the millennials out in big numbers will be key as all the polls show amongst the over 35 crowd, PCs still have strong lead.  Also a massive gender gap too in each of these as it seems NDP is tied or perhaps ahead amongst female voters but amongst male voters PCs still have a very big lead and most polls show close to 50% support. 

I think Ford unlike Elliott is a real turnoff to females thus why you see a large gender gap whereas his style appeals well to males.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #852 on: May 12, 2018, 02:03:33 PM »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #853 on: May 12, 2018, 02:41:08 PM »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)

Well, if the NDP does win, and does a good job in office, it would do a good job to boost the federal party's numbers, and he might just become prime minister! Wink
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #854 on: May 12, 2018, 02:47:04 PM »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)

Well, if the NDP does win, and does a good job in office, it would do a good job to boost the federal party's numbers, and he might just become prime minister! Wink

A bird in the hand...

If Jagmeet Singh was more interested in federal politics, I can understand that.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #855 on: May 12, 2018, 02:49:06 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2018, 03:07:00 PM by 136or142 »

So, based on these latest polls, what ridings held by the Liberals would the NDP likely pick up and are there any P.C held ridings that the NDP might win? (for instance, maybe Sarnia-Lambton)

From the Liberals I would guess
1.Ottawa Centre
2.Kingston and the Islands
3.Scarborough-Rouge Park
4.Scarborough South West
5.Beaches-East York
6.Davenport
7.Spadina-Fort York
8.University-Rosedale (new riding)
9.Humber River-Black Creek (formerly York West)
10.York South-Weston
11.London North Centre
12.Sudbury
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adma
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« Reply #856 on: May 12, 2018, 03:40:05 PM »

So, based on these latest polls, what ridings held by the Liberals would the NDP likely pick up and are there any P.C held ridings that the NDP might win? (for instance, maybe Sarnia-Lambton)

From the Liberals I would guess
1.Ottawa Centre
2.Kingston and the Islands
3.Scarborough-Rouge Park
4.Scarborough South West
5.Beaches-East York
6.Davenport
7.Spadina-Fort York
8.University-Rosedale (new riding)
9.Humber River-Black Creek (formerly York West)
10.York South-Weston
11.London North Centre
12.Sudbury

If we're going by the NDP flirting with 1st over the PCs in SW Ontario, Brantford-Brant (where the Lib incumbent's retiring), Kitchener Centre (though redistribution skews the NDP picture by bringing in strong Fife polls from K-W), maybe even Cambridge, maybe even Jim Bradley's St Catharines.  Mike Schreiner gets in the way in Guelph, though.  Also, if things swing *really* violently against the Libs in Northern Ontario, both Thunder Bay seats.  And Horwathmania could well flip Durham into the fold, rather than the "expected" PC pickup.

From the PCs: Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Sault Ste Marie.

I *might* downplay Scarborough-Rouge Park--the breakup of the NDP heart of Malvern/Morningside Heights seems to have been fatal.  And I'd bump Toronto Centre up a few notches.  

Plus, all those Brampton seats, if we're picking up where Jagmeet-mania in 2014 left off.

And of course, if it weren't for who was running there, there'd be Etobicoke North to consider.
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Krago
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« Reply #857 on: May 12, 2018, 04:56:00 PM »

I'm trying to map the polling regions used by the various firms for the Ontario provincial election.

Here are the regions used by Mainstreet.  The ridings are listed on 'Ridings and Regions' section of their poll report.  I emailed Mainstreet about the Huron-Bruce and Simcoe-Grey oddities, and they confirmed that they are correct.




Here are the regions used by Forum and Abacus.  They follow the area code boundaries.  Haldimand-Norfolk, Wellington-Halton Hills and Dufferin-Caledon all straddle the boundary between 519 and 905, with the majority of their populations on the 519 side.




I can't find the polling regions used by Ipsos, Pollara or Leger.  Nanos doesn't seem to use regions in Ontario.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #858 on: May 12, 2018, 07:40:05 PM »

I would add Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster as a possibility for the NDP if things go well.  It's in Andrea Horwath's backyard and is kind of like the "London West" of Hamilton (the affluent/educated seat where Fordian populism doesn't go over well).  
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adma
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« Reply #859 on: May 12, 2018, 07:56:18 PM »

I would add Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster as a possibility for the NDP if things go well.  It's in Andrea Horwath's backyard and is kind of like the "London West" of Hamilton (the affluent/educated seat where Fordian populism doesn't go over well).  


A little like Waterloo as well, in that it contains a university--McMaster.

(I forgot about HWDA; perhaps in part because it technically did not exist in 2014--or rather, the former Ancaster et al has *two* successor seats.  And heck; a nearing-majority-territory NDP is probably capable of picking up or at least posing a threat in Flamborough-Glanbrook as well.)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #860 on: May 12, 2018, 08:03:21 PM »

Yeah, Flamborough-Glanbrook is a bit like Durham.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #861 on: May 12, 2018, 08:03:46 PM »

Here are the regions used by Mainstreet.  The ridings are listed on 'Ridings and Regions' section of their poll report.  I emailed Mainstreet about the Huron-Bruce and Simcoe-Grey oddities, and they confirmed that they are correct.



LOL, what

I always think people are exaggerating with their "Torontonians think Barrie is in Northern Ontario" schtick, but here we literally have Grey County in the north for no area code or postal code reason.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #862 on: May 12, 2018, 09:44:04 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2018, 09:51:02 PM by 🍁 Hatman »

Frank has tweeted our Ontario results that I've been hinting at:



Now that it has been embargoed, I can comment on it. I can confirm that the NDP surge is real, and they overtook the Liberals on Monday in terms of raw numbers (pre-weighted), and were ahead of the Liberals the week prior with weighted numbers. Our weights are aligned with the census, so they have weighted up the under 35 category much higher than what you'd actually see on Election Day. I've also used an age weight that mirrors the federal election turnout, which put the NDP's lead over the Liberals at about 0.2% I think, over the same time period.

I don't know if we'll post regional numbers, but I can confirm the NDP is in first place in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton/Niagara. They are statistically tied with the Liberals in Downtown Toronto and are doing surprisingly well in the Grand River Valley (Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford).  I can't remember if they're winning there or not (remember, I've been working with two sets of weighted numbers). Oh, and we only have maybe ~20 cases in Guelph, but out of those cases, it does not look good for the Greens to pick it up. Though a strong campaign can change that.

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.
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« Reply #863 on: May 12, 2018, 09:56:25 PM »

So the numbers in the poll that was Tweeted are the unweighted numbers?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #864 on: May 12, 2018, 10:08:36 PM »

So the numbers in the poll that was Tweeted are the unweighted numbers?

No, those are weighted. They're over the course of over a week, so the Liberals were in second place at the beginning of the polling period, while the NDP was in second at the end of the polling period. I think the unweighted numbers for the entire period show the Liberals in second (but not in the last two days of polling).
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #865 on: May 12, 2018, 10:16:29 PM »

Liberals are in free fall.
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Krago
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« Reply #866 on: May 12, 2018, 10:20:31 PM »

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.

Bless you.  Please PM me, and I'll make a map.
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DL
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« Reply #867 on: May 12, 2018, 10:23:39 PM »

When you say the NDP and Liberals are tied in "downtown Toronto" is that Toronto 416 or just the 8 ridings that are from the old old City of Toronto?
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DL
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« Reply #868 on: May 12, 2018, 10:26:33 PM »

So the numbers in the poll that was Tweeted are the unweighted numbers?

No, those are weighted. They're over the course of over a week, so the Liberals were in second place at the beginning of the polling period, while the NDP was in second at the end of the polling period. I think the unweighted numbers for the entire period show the Liberals in second (but not in the last two days of polling).

Does Ekos ask the vote question with just the party names or with the party names with leaders? In my experience the moment you include the names Wynne and Horwath you tend to add a couple of points to the NDP and subtract a couple more points from the Liberals.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #869 on: May 12, 2018, 10:31:49 PM »

Frank has tweeted our Ontario results that I've been hinting at:



Now that it has been embargoed, I can comment on it. I can confirm that the NDP surge is real, and they overtook the Liberals on Monday in terms of raw numbers (pre-weighted), and were ahead of the Liberals the week prior with weighted numbers. Our weights are aligned with the census, so they have weighted up the under 35 category much higher than what you'd actually see on Election Day. I've also used an age weight that mirrors the federal election turnout, which put the NDP's lead over the Liberals at about 0.2% I think, over the same time period.

I don't know if we'll post regional numbers, but I can confirm the NDP is in first place in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton/Niagara. They are statistically tied with the Liberals in Downtown Toronto and are doing surprisingly well in the Grand River Valley (Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford).  I can't remember if they're winning there or not (remember, I've been working with two sets of weighted numbers). Oh, and we only have maybe ~20 cases in Guelph, but out of those cases, it does not look good for the Greens to pick it up. Though a strong campaign can change that.

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.


How about Southwestern Ontario? Are they competitive there or PC's still well ahead?

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #870 on: May 12, 2018, 10:39:37 PM »

Thread drift: Why do people have such a ridiculously extensive definition of "downtown" Toronto anyway?  There's really only three ridings that are downtown (and even those aren't entirely downtown if we use the already generous official definition of Bathurst to Don River, below CPR tracks and Rosedale Valley).

Not sure why High Park, the Beaches and Yonge and Eglinton are "downtown" except being part of the city of Toronto pre-1998.  Is Kitsilano in "downtown" Vancouver?  Is NDG in "downtown" Montreal?  
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #871 on: May 12, 2018, 10:44:08 PM »

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

Also how much does Ford mess up the traditional map?  He likely underperforms in ridings like DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence, and overperforms in Scarborough, York-Weston and of course north Etobicoke.
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DL
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« Reply #872 on: May 12, 2018, 10:48:00 PM »

Thread drift: Why do people have such a ridiculously extensive definition of "downtown" Toronto anyway?  There's really only three ridings that are downtown (and even those aren't entirely downtown if we use the already generous official definition of Bathurst to Don River, below CPR tracks and Rosedale Valley).

Not sure why High Park, the Beaches and Yonge and Eglinton are "downtown" except being part of the city of Toronto pre-1998.  Is Kitsilano in "downtown" Vancouver?  Is NDG in "downtown" Montreal?  


It would make more sense to refer to "inner Toronto" to mean old Toronto, York and East York and outer Toronto to mean Scarborough/North York and Etobicoke
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #873 on: May 12, 2018, 10:50:29 PM »

It would make more sense to refer to "inner Toronto" to mean old Toronto, York and East York and outer Toronto to mean Scarborough/North York and Etobicoke

I strongly agree.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #874 on: May 12, 2018, 10:50:54 PM »

When you say the NDP and Liberals are tied in "downtown Toronto" is that Toronto 416 or just the 8 ridings that are from the old old City of Toronto?

Should've said "Central Toronto", and I think it's the 11 centrally located ridings in the city.
Frank has tweeted our Ontario results that I've been hinting at:



Now that it has been embargoed, I can comment on it. I can confirm that the NDP surge is real, and they overtook the Liberals on Monday in terms of raw numbers (pre-weighted), and were ahead of the Liberals the week prior with weighted numbers. Our weights are aligned with the census, so they have weighted up the under 35 category much higher than what you'd actually see on Election Day. I've also used an age weight that mirrors the federal election turnout, which put the NDP's lead over the Liberals at about 0.2% I think, over the same time period.

I don't know if we'll post regional numbers, but I can confirm the NDP is in first place in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton/Niagara. They are statistically tied with the Liberals in Downtown Toronto and are doing surprisingly well in the Grand River Valley (Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford).  I can't remember if they're winning there or not (remember, I've been working with two sets of weighted numbers). Oh, and we only have maybe ~20 cases in Guelph, but out of those cases, it does not look good for the Greens to pick it up. Though a strong campaign can change that.

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.


How about Southwestern Ontario? Are they competitive there or PC's still well ahead?

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

The NDP is competitive in the SW, but down from 2014, so are at a risk of losing London West (though the PC candidate is a crazy, so that might help them).
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