Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198848 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #875 on: May 12, 2018, 10:53:05 PM »

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

Also how much does Ford mess up the traditional map?  He likely underperforms in ridings like DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence, and overperforms in Scarborough, York-Weston and of course north Etobicoke.

I wish we had more cases in York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek to know what was going on there, but I can tell you the PCs are ahead in Scarborough. Small sample size, though (~80 cases off the top of my head).
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DL
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« Reply #876 on: May 12, 2018, 10:57:34 PM »

In my experience low income, heavily ethnic ridings are VERY difficult to poll using IVR. Response rates tend to be abysmal
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mileslunn
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« Reply #877 on: May 12, 2018, 10:58:02 PM »

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

Also how much does Ford mess up the traditional map?  He likely underperforms in ridings like DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence, and overperforms in Scarborough, York-Weston and of course north Etobicoke.

I wish we had more cases in York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek to know what was going on there, but I can tell you the PCs are ahead in Scarborough. Small sample size, though (~80 cases off the top of my head).

Scarborough is no surprise as that went heavily for Doug Ford as mayor.  Never mind I think the subway which the Ford's championed is a big reason.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #878 on: May 12, 2018, 11:00:04 PM »

In my experience low income, heavily ethnic ridings are VERY difficult to poll using IVR. Response rates tend to be abysmal

Yes, hence why I don't know what's going on in those ridings, and not sure what is going on in Brampton either, which is another area I am very interested in, as I have a feeling the NDP could do potentially quite well there.
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adma
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« Reply #879 on: May 13, 2018, 06:22:59 PM »

The NDP is competitive in the SW, but down from 2014, so are at a risk of losing London West (though the PC candidate is a crazy, so that might help them).

Though I wonder if "down from 2014" reflects a possible "correction" from overinflated 2014 figures + token PC bounce in seats like Essex and Windsor-Tecumseh (or the PCs gaining ground over the no-longer-incumbent Libs in Windsor West)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #880 on: May 13, 2018, 08:39:11 PM »

Both Wynne and Horwath say it's too early to talk about a coalition, but neither rule it out
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136or142
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« Reply #881 on: May 13, 2018, 10:01:10 PM »


Unfortunately I'm sure nobody is happier to hear this than Doug Ford.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #882 on: May 14, 2018, 01:15:46 AM »

Seeing as Ford and Horwath are bad fits with your standard "upper-middle class cosmopolitan but not necessarily lefty" demographic, could the Greens win Guelph in the event of a Gritpocylpse?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #883 on: May 14, 2018, 04:43:36 AM »


Yeah, this is the first "wow that's dumb of them" story of the campaign that hasn't come from Ford's camp. The spectre of of Wynne clinging to power is a boon for the Tories.
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DL
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« Reply #884 on: May 14, 2018, 05:28:48 AM »

I don’t see what else either Wynne or a Horwath could say at this stage. To totally rule out working with any other party in a minority situation would be crazy so the best thing to do is to be non committal. In any case with the Liberals an increasingly distant third (of not in the popular vote then definitely in the seat count) it’s clear that there is no way whatsoever that Wynne remains premier. What could happen is that the Liberals help Horwath form a minority government, but since a Horwath is popular, what’s not to like about that.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #885 on: May 14, 2018, 05:43:19 AM »

What could happen is that the Liberals help Horwath form a minority government, but since a Horwath is popular, what’s not to like about that.

It associates clean, popular Horwath with toxic Wynne and motivates the Tory base. Of course I'd be surprised if Wynne is leader a week after election day, but the insinuations will still be made.
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adma
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« Reply #886 on: May 14, 2018, 07:37:43 AM »

What could happen is that the Liberals help Horwath form a minority government, but since a Horwath is popular, what’s not to like about that.

It associates clean, popular Horwath with toxic Wynne and motivates the Tory base. Of course I'd be surprised if Wynne is leader a week after election day, but the insinuations will still be made.

Though...how "toxic", really, esp. if Horwath has the upper hand?  This is more about "not Ford" rather than "yes Wynne", after all.  Choose your toxins, IOW (and that includes the Rae-revisited/socialist hordes spectre at Horwath's end)

Note, too, that they're cautiously non-committal--but really: giving how polarizing Ford is, why must the alternatives not be considered in a minority situation?  Like, who'd (or how'd one) accord with Ford?  And if by some fluke Horwath's in the pole position but short of a majority, what's one to do?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #887 on: May 14, 2018, 08:19:41 AM »

Seeing as Ford and Horwath are bad fits with your standard "upper-middle class cosmopolitan but not necessarily lefty" demographic, could the Greens win Guelph in the event of a Gritpocylpse?

As I mentioned, right now the Greens are in a distant fourth place in Guelph, but I know they're going to put all their eggs into that basket, so they will likely start getting some momentum. Right now I fear the vote split is going to allow the Tories win the seat though.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #888 on: May 14, 2018, 08:30:52 AM »

Guelph is basically Kingston's more crunchy granola twin.  It could go NDP under the right circumstances, but the Greens are cutting significantly into the constituency they would appeal to.
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Krago
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« Reply #889 on: May 14, 2018, 09:26:05 AM »

The Greens are currently winning the sign war in Guelph, but considering I've only seen about a dozen signs on people's lawns, that ain't worth much.
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DL
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« Reply #890 on: May 15, 2018, 06:58:55 AM »

Woohoo, New Ipsos poll shows a further acceleration of the NDP hovering up the progressive vote and emerging as the main opposition to Ford

PCs 40% (unchanged)
NDP 35% (up 6)
Liberals 22% (down 4)
Greens 3% (down. 2)

Needless to say this points to a total Liberal annihilation
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adma
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« Reply #891 on: May 15, 2018, 07:26:36 AM »

Woohoo, New Ipsos poll shows a further acceleration of the NDP hovering up the progressive vote and emerging as the main opposition to Ford

PCs 40% (unchanged)
NDP 35% (up 6)
Liberals 22% (down 4)
Greens 3% (down. 2)

Needless to say this points to a total Liberal annihilation

But also to the Tories staying put.  That is, there's not yet any real evidence of "soft" Ford populists joining the Andrea bandwagon instead...
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DL
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« Reply #892 on: May 15, 2018, 07:34:24 AM »

The first half of this campaign is essentially a “primary” to see who is the progressive alternative to Ford. Horwath has won that. Now on to the final phase
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #893 on: May 15, 2018, 07:45:28 AM »

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #894 on: May 15, 2018, 08:02:53 AM »

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/ontario-election-ndp-liberals-anti-ford/

PCs lead - 905 (49%, NDP 29%, OLP 20%), central (39%) and Eastern(49%)
NDP lead - 416 (38%, PC 34%, OLP 26%), SW (47%), North (41%)

Best Premier:
Horwath - 47%
Ford - 36%
Wynne - 18%

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Krago
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« Reply #895 on: May 15, 2018, 08:26:07 AM »

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?

Everything in the L postal code area outside Halton/Peel/York/Durham.

Niagara/Hamilton/Simcoe/Peterborough
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SJ84
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« Reply #896 on: May 15, 2018, 08:26:39 AM »

With the NDP gaining, here is my prediction:

PC majority government with the NDP as the office opposition.

PC - 71 - 75 seats
NDP - 30 - 35 seats
LIB - 14 - 23 seats
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #897 on: May 15, 2018, 08:30:11 AM »

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?

Everything in the L postal code area outside Halton/Peel/York/Durham.

Niagara/Hamilton/Simcoe/Peterborough

OK, that makes sense.  That's the "old" definition of Central Ontario, back when it mean between Eastern and Western Ontario.  In recent years it has become more synonymous with Cottage Country.

(Though Peterborough is "K").
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #898 on: May 15, 2018, 08:36:21 AM »

It would be nice if the Liberals hold their vote in the north Toronto ridings that John Tory dominated municipally and Doug Ford bombed in.  But I don't even know if that can happen at this point given anti-Liberal sentiment at this point.

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DL
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« Reply #899 on: May 15, 2018, 08:55:34 AM »


Best premier is often a leading indicator for how people will eventually vote....just sayin'
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