Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

Looking in more details at Ipsos, they show a 20 point PC lead in the 905 belt changing to a deficit which while I don't doubt there have been some shifts nothing this big.  To be fair I don't think the PCs had a 20 point lead in the 905 to begin with and I don't think they are trailing either.  On the other hand NDP lead in the 416 in last poll while now PCs are ahead and I find it tough to believe 905 and 416 going in opposite directions.  Nonetheless doesn't change the fact NDP has momentum and PCs have likely slid below the 40% mark.  While I cannot give Mainstreet subscriber numbers out, things have been relatively flat with only minor shifts, nothing massive yet, although perhaps that will change this week.

Pollara and Leger marketing will come out later this week and both are online polls.  In the case of Leger marketing doubt the PCs will have a 17 point lead like in April, will definitely narrow but how much will be interesting.  PCs will likely be under 43% and NDP over 26% but interesting to see how close they get.  I suspect Pollara will show NDP up and PCs either stable or down but interesting to see if they are tied, NDP ahead or PCs barely ahead or do PCs maintain substantial lead.  Not sure when Nanos or Innovative telephone poll will come out as there has been a lack of CATI polls.

Using 2014, all online overestimated NDP support (average around 28% vs. actual 24%) but IVR underestimated them (20% vs. 24%), while CATI was bang on for all parties.  Both IVR and especially online underestimated OLP while for PCs IVR was fairly close but online slightly overestimated them, different than now as IVR show PCs doing better than online.  The few CATI polls earlier showed OLP much higher than others but being a bit dated I suspect their numbers have fallen a bit and NDP risen, but interesting if NDP in clear second or catching PCs or still a dogfight for 2nd.  I suspect you will see poll herding as we get closer to e-day.

[mileslunn]

Here is a table showing the 2014 eDay results (no advance or special polls) for the largest municipalities in Ontario:

Municipality	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN
Toronto	48.8%	22.9%	22.7%	3.9%
Ottawa	45.1%	33.5%	14.2%	6.2%
Mississauga	49.7%	28.2%	15.8%	3.2%
Hamilton	32.4%	22.2%	38.3%	5.3%
Brampton	39.9%	22.3%	32.4%	3.5%
London	26.7%	26.1%	40.4%	4.7%
Markham	48.2%	35.5%	11.3%	3.3%
Vaughan	51.2%	34.1%	10.6%	2.2%
Kitchener	38.1%	27.3%	26.7%	6.1%
Burlington	43.2%	36.5%	14.7%	4.2%
Oakville	48.6%	37.1%	9.2%	3.8%
Windsor	28.4%	13.8%	51.2%	4.4%
Greater Sudbury	31.0%	12.6%	52.0%	3.8%
Richmond Hill	46.7%	36.4%	11.7%	3.3%
Oshawa	19.8%	30.7%	45.5%	3.9%
St. Catharines	38.4%	29.1%	27.4%	3.9%
Guelph	40.7%	20.4%	18.3%	19.9%
Whitby	33.0%	40.2%	22.0%	4.4%
Barrie	40.5%	35.1%	17.1%	6.6%
Kingston	40.4%	20.5%	31.4%	7.2%
Cambridge	38.7%	31.0%	23.1%	5.9%
Waterloo	30.4%	26.0%	37.6%	5.2%
Thunder Bay	55.3%	9.3%	28.7%	3.5%
Ajax	51.5%	27.7%	17.1%	3.1%
Chatham-Kent	23.7%	37.7%	31.9%	5.0%
Milton	43.6%	36.3%	15.1%	3.6%

Ahh, so Whitby is indeed #1, followed by Oakville, Burlington, Chatham-Kent, Richmond Hill, Milton, and then Barrie.

Thunder Bay is the most Liberal, Gr. Sudbury the most NDP and Guelph the most Green.

Do you have municipal results for other elections?

All the others are suburbs that are part of the GTA not standalone cities.  Barrie is close to the GTA but still its own city in its own right.  Chatham-Kent municipality has over 100,000 but the actual city is only around 50,000, the rest is small towns and countryside and I suspect the PCs run up the numbers in the rural parts while did worse in the urban parts.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

^^^^

This is especially true for opt-in online panels.

[mileslunn]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

^^^^

This is especially true for opt-in online panels.

When will Ekos have its next poll.  It seems IVR show NDP momentum but PCs still clearly ahead while online show them tied so nice to get some more IVR to see if just Mainstreet is off or if methodology is causing the discrepancy.

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

[DC Al Fine]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

And the Liberals somehow holding a seat in Vaughan

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos has the NDP leading the Tories 37-36.

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

And the Liberals somehow holding a seat in Vaughan

Maybe the "but...Italians! Del Duca! Seat projector!" people are right.  Who knows?  This election has been full of surprises.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

accidentally electing an NDP government to own the libs

[Hatman 🍁]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

^^^^

This is especially true for opt-in online panels.

When will Ekos have its next poll.  It seems IVR show NDP momentum but PCs still clearly ahead while online show them tied so nice to get some more IVR to see if just Mainstreet is off or if methodology is causing the discrepancy.

We are not currently in field.

[_]

Ipsos has the NDP leading the Tories 37-36.

Regional Polls/Crosstabs from that article.



NDP actually winning the 905 yet losing Toronto itself, cool.

[mileslunn]

Noticed Ford and PCs really stepping up attacks on the NDP so their internal polls must have them a bit worried.  Whether they show them tied or gap just closing hard to say, but I suspect their data gives them reason to be worried.  In 2011 you saw Harper attack the NDP hard in BC, but little in Ontario so it will be interesting to watch.  Also I think PCs have figured out attacking the Liberals hurts the Liberals but helps the NDP not them.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie has Georgian College.

Yea as a Barrieite, I was pretty upset about us getting denied for a university. We ended up losing out to somewhere in the GTA. Central Ontario overall just loves the PC's.

[toaster]

I'm guessing those 905 numbers have an over-sampling of Brampton numbers?  I can see the NDP sweeping Brampton (and possibly Mississauga-Malton) but can't see them winning in the rest of Mississauga or places like Vaughan, Ajax, or Thornhill.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Ipsos:
NDP: 37
PC: 36
Lib: 23
Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/?utm_source=NewsletterBarrie&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=2018

I predict that in the next two weeks the NDP will continue to rise, primarily at the expense of the Liberals but also nicking a point or two of the PCs. Both Wynne and Ford are toxic and so people are turning to the 3rd option. I think the NDP has worked this pretty well, with their talk of "Change for the better" and emphasizing that people don't just have to choose between "bad and worse". I would say the absolute Liberal floor is about 13% (Wynne's lowest recorded approval rating), so they have further to fall (I could be wrong about that but since Canada is much swingier than the US I figured there just aren't that many people willing to go down with the Wynne Liberal ship when the NDP has become viable). Of course past results don't necessarily dictate the future and there were different circumstances, but in Alberta Notley didn't start taking the lead in polls until two weeks before election day, and likewise in the 2011 orange crush the NDP didn't slip into second until two weeks before the election. And now we have the ONDP taking the lead for the first time two weeks out... We shall see if history repeats itself again or if this falters.

[King of Kensington]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

[Boston Bread]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

[King of Kensington]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I think Central Ontario = "L" postal codes outside of Durham/Halton/Peel/York.

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

[136or142]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

I'd guess maybe Peterborough-Kawartha and one or two other ridings in Ottawa.

[mileslunn]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

 Also only 60 people in sample so way too small to mean anything.

[mileslunn]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

I actually think they will get closer to 25 percent, but that's basically true. Maybe Ottawa-Vanier and Peterborough-Kawartha if they surge further but not right now.

[MaxQue]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

[MaxQue]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

I'm aware, I have family in Angus. My point is than Barrie and the rest of the county voting patterns are diverging.