Ontario 2018 election

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

Barrie seems like a pretty establishment friendly place, not a good place for Fordian Populism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

[King of Kensington]

Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

We won't know until election day.  Doug Ford running municipally is not the same as local candidates running under the PC banner led by Doug Ford .  I don't know how much his personal popularity transcends the general aversion to the PCs in working class districts of outer Toronto.  

[King of Kensington]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

[lilTommy]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

Absolutely; and I think some will; Toronto-St.Paul's, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, I still think Eglinton-Lawrence is going Liberal, maybe Willodwdale and I'd say Scarborough-Guildwood as well, those are my picks for OLP seats in TO.

I actually think the PC vote in Toronto, will be inefficient, it will be too focused in Etobicoke and Scarborough, 3 Etobicoke ridings (If he wins his own, PCs have a starting point of 22%) York Centre, Scarborough North, Centre, Rouge park (I can see staying OLP), Agincourt, Don Valley East - 8-9. 

The Anti-Ford vote will be heaviest in TO, since well we have had experience with Doug and Rob; Its seeing if the OLP vote will migrate more to the NDP then the PCs in those key ridings like Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, these are NDP targets that should be also Ford PC targets, where the OLP vote will be important. Is this OLP vote more anti-Ford or die hard OLP? or too-rich-to-vote-NDP?

[Krago]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

[PeteB]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

[PeteB]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

Absolutely; and I think some will; Toronto-St.Paul's, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, I still think Eglinton-Lawrence is going Liberal, maybe Willodwdale and I'd say Scarborough-Guildwood as well, those are my picks for OLP seats in TO.

I actually think the PC vote in Toronto, will be inefficient, it will be too focused in Etobicoke and Scarborough, 3 Etobicoke ridings (If he wins his own, PCs have a starting point of 22%) York Centre, Scarborough North, Centre, Rouge park (I can see staying OLP), Agincourt, Don Valley East - 8-9. 

The Anti-Ford vote will be heaviest in TO, since well we have had experience with Doug and Rob; Its seeing if the OLP vote will migrate more to the NDP then the PCs in those key ridings like Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, these are NDP targets that should be also Ford PC targets, where the OLP vote will be important. Is this OLP vote more anti-Ford or die hard OLP? or too-rich-to-vote-NDP?

I don't disagree with your logic.  But, if you accept my analysis above that the PCs are currently about 12-15 seats short of a majority,  if they get these 5-6 TCTC seats in Toronto that you mention (such as the ones in Etobicoke, Scarborough and in the inner burbs), they will be inches away from forming a government.  They were never going to get seats like Toronto Centre, St. Paul's, Danforth or Parkdale High Park anyway, so it's not like they will be disappointed.

[MaxQue]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

I'm not that sure. NDP isn't getting to 38% without significant unexpected swings. I would also argue than the PC vote isn't efficient either, I expect very larges majorities in rural seats they currently hold.
In general, if you have a 2 or 3% lead, the reality will give you a lead in seats.

[DC Al Fine]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

I'm not that sure. NDP isn't getting to 38% without significant unexpected swings. I would also argue than the PC vote isn't efficient either, I expect very larges majorities in rural seats they currently hold.
In general, if you have a 2 or 3% lead, the reality will give you a lead in seats.

Agreed. The NDP vote is usually much more concentrated than the other parties, but I don't think that's the case when they're contending for government.

[DC Al Fine]

That is, the NDP will run up the margins where they already hold seats, but I doubt they'll get any rural Alberta style results, which in turn will help them elsewhere.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'll second Al's remark that if the final results reflect these polls, any seat-by-seat predictions would be impossible. However, I'll say that I suspect that the OLP's vote will hold up in core Toronto to a larger degree than would be expected using a universal swing calculator. I think they'll be wiped out in outlying  amalgamated Toronto, largely to the NDP, and the NDP may win a number of seats by massive, Soviet margins there but I wouldn't be shocked if the PC's make some fluke gains in places you wouldn't expect.

My "shock" prediction is that I expect that the OLP will be wiped out in the Toronto suburbs. I don't think they'll win a single riding and, further, I think the NDP will win the lion's share of these seats, including some seats that the NDP will have no business winning. The problem with this prediction is that a 1-2% polling miss could mean the PC's will win more seats. It's hard to say what will happen but, uh, as an example, I don't think people living in Vaughn have any reason to vote for the OLP. I'd assume that Wynne's approval is below 20% there. I don't think racial/ethnic minorities in these areas, whether working class or affluent, have any reason to vote for the OLP either.

I don't think that sex education, carbon taxes, utility privatization and various woke performative acts have any appeal whatsoever to ordinary suburban types of any income bracket. I'd conjecture that throughout the Toronto suburbs, Wynne is, by far, the most despised of the three leaders and that there's plenty of people who would preference both Ford and Horwath higher than Wynne. That may even be most voters. If true, the OLP will totally collapse and "strategic voting" won't matter anywhere in the suburbs.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

In my mind, there's too much of an emphasis on Ford's peculiarities. At the end of the day, it seems that most Ontario voters would prefer him to Wynne. If this holds in the suburbs, the PC's could win plenty of seats, including seats where Ford is seen as a dog turd. They may only need 35-40% in quite a few ridings! That's not difficult to pull off - it's a matter of the PC's holding onto their core vote in a lot of ridings while winning some swing voters. This ain't impossible - Vaughn and a few other places seem to be filled with right-wing Liberals who voted for the Tories, even in 2015, and also for the OLP.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

Barrie seems like a pretty establishment friendly place, not a good place for Fordian Populism.

If both Barrie ridings can stay blue during the red wave of the federal election, then they can stay blue during the Ontario election. Being in Barrie recently, chatting with some people and the sea of blue lawn signs, I don’t see the NDP gaining in a seat. The NDP will put up a good fight but I suspect the Tories will win.

[Hatman 🍁]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

Hmm.

Well, Etobicoke-Lakeshore does have some NDP history. Not in Willowdale, though. Interestingly, Olivia Chow did a lot better in Willowdale than the NDP usually does. It is an area that is seeing an influx of people moving in to live in the Yonge Street corridor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know how much his personal popularity...

Ah but even there... was that even his personal popularity? Or his brother's transferred over to him? I suppose we'll soon find out.

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

[King of Kensington]

Well, Etobicoke-Lakeshore does have some NDP history. Not in Willowdale, though. Interestingly, Olivia Chow did a lot better in Willowdale than the NDP usually does. It is an area that is seeing an influx of people moving in to live in the Yonge Street corridor.

Willowdale was in fact one of the few PC seats in Toronto in 1990 - as a strong showing by the NDP allowed the PC to come up the middle.

Lakeshore indeed used to elect NDP MPPs - and the NDP won big there in 1990.  Though the riding boundaries are rather different now and stretches up to include the wealthy Kingsway area.

[MaxQue]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

As urban and rural ridings have the same population, I'm very confused by what you're trying to say.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

[adma]

If we go back to the Old pre-95 districts, London North was a very solid PC seat, even staying PC in 90 (mostly north of Oxford west of Highbury)

It only seemed so because Dianne Cunningham won for the Tories in a 1988 byelection, and her  byelected-incumbent strength carried over into the 1990 general (after she ran for the PC leadership and lost to Mike Harris).  Pre-Cunningham, it was solid Liberal under Ron Van Horne.  Without Cunningham, London North could well have gone NDP, too...

[adma]

Also Ford underperforms among the wealthy compared to a more generic PC leader.

Yeah but so did Hudak so that's factored in somewhat.

Re Hudak, more so in 2011 than 2014--his civil-servant-bashing '14 campaign actually helped him in wealthier polls (check comparative polling maps in those years for proof)