Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

The NDP isn't "hammering" the PCs in SW Ontario at all.  It's very close.  What's happening is the NDP is driving the Liberals out of K-W and London.   

Getting "respectable second" in York-Simcoe and BGOS while under-perfomring in Brampton does not bid well for the NDP.

So other than the "hammering" semantics we agree.

[King of Kensington]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

[lilTommy]

Yet this aggregator http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ Has Brampton Centre for the NDP at 51%, but Brampton North PC 39/33 over the NDP.

"hopefully" the NDP is able to rally around to focus on Brampton and Durham, with Brampton Centre and North their best bets. Mississauge is looking like a PC sweep though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course the thing about constituency polling is that... cont. p. 384

[King of Kensington]

Of course the thing about constituency polling is that... cont. p. 384

Thank you for correcting us, yet again. 

[King of Kensington]

Not a Liberal partisan but am predicting that, assuming the Liberals are higher than 22% provincially, Del Duca retains his seat.

Not so sure about that - the federal Liberals got 25% in Ontario in 2011 and they still got creamed in Vaughan.

My point is - I would be surprised if even 5% of voters will put the question of who will succeed Kathleen Wynne as leader of the OLP into consideration when they vote.  And all of those people would be diehard Liberals.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Not a Liberal partisan but am predicting that, assuming the Liberals are higher than 22% provincially, Del Duca retains his seat.

Not so sure about that - the federal Liberals got 25% in Ontario in 2011 and they still got creamed in Vaughan.

My point is - I would be surprised if even 5% of voters will put the question of who will succeed Kathleen Wynne as leader of the OLP into consideration when they vote.  And all of those people would be diehard Liberals.

Even with the Liberal vote % rising I wouldn't say their vote is that efficient anyway. Their consistently third and below 30% (onsider they lost a lot of ground here in 2011 when they finished 1st with 34.84%) in Toronto and well back in third in most other regions. Unless the Liberals can rise up in the polls above 25% or concentrate their vote well I think they may have trouble winning more then 10-11 seats.

[SJ84]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

My prediction:

WHITBY - PCs and NDP are tied at the moment

BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE - PCs are leading slightly but the Green Party is doing shockingly well in second place

BARRIE-INNISFIL - PCs have a 15 plus lead over the NDP

[DL]

At long last a real, live CATI poll by Innovative. This is the first one of the campaign and interestingly they did an online poll at the exact same time so as to be able to compare methodologies and (drumroll please) the results are identical!

NDP 37% (CATI) 36% (online)
PCs 34% (CATI) 34% (online)
Libs 21% (CATI) 22% (online)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OntarioThisMonth_WhatDoThePhonesSay.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

My prediction:

WHITBY - PCs and NDP are tied at the moment

BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE - PCs are leading slightly but the Green Party is doing shockingly well in second place

BARRIE-INNISFIL - PCs have a 15 plus lead over the NDP

Why do you think the Greens are second in BSOM? I thought they were throwing all of their eggs into the Guelph basket.

[SJ84]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

My prediction:

WHITBY - PCs and NDP are tied at the moment

BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE - PCs are leading slightly but the Green Party is doing shockingly well in second place

BARRIE-INNISFIL - PCs have a 15 plus lead over the NDP

Why do you think the Greens are second in BSOM? I thought they were throwing all of their eggs into the Guelph basket.

I was in Barrie a week ago and a few friends from there have said the Green's have a good ground game. Also, I saw the Green's have A LOT of lawn signs up. I was surprised how many signs I saw.

In the south Barrie, there has to be at least 1000 - 1100 PC lawn signs on private properties and I've been told the PC candidate has been gaining lots of support from lots of door-knocking.

[DL]

I wouldnt be surprised if the NDP was surprisingly close to the PCs in both Barrie seats. They are surprisingly competitive next door in York Simcoe which is a much more rural seat. With the increasing urban/rural split in Ontario I could see Barrie being more competitive since it is a bigger and bigger city and could start to vote more like similar sized places like Peterborough or Brantford  

[King of Kensington]

I'd really like to see polls for Peterborough and Brantford.

[DL]

Before people get too agitated about these riding polls let's keep in mind that riding polls do not have a very good record - and tend to have HUGE problems properly sampling young people and ethnic communities.

In the last BC election Mainstreet did a whole slew of riding polls and every single one of them were dead wrong and drastically overestimated BC Liberal support and underestimated NDP - especially in some Surrey seats (which are very similar demograpgics to Brampton) 

[King of Kensington]

Good point.  And Brampton was actually a pretty strong area for the Reform Party in the 1990s.  If the sample of the Brampton ridings looks like Brampton ca. 1993 that could explain why Ford's PCs are over-performing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

[PeteB]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

St. Catharines perhaps?

[Hifly]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

BC 2017 was not a situation where the incumbent majority party slipped into third place and then suffered uncontrollable hemmoraging into the distance.

[DC Al Fine]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

St. Catharines perhaps?

Guelph could be one.

[ON Progressive]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

St. Catharines perhaps?

Guelph could be one.

Yeah, I'd say Guelph is a three-way race. Although it's a Green/NDP/PC three-way race rather than a Liberal/PC/NDP race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dark horse 3-way race: Ottawa-Vanier

[RogueBeaver]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Dark horse 3-way race: Ottawa-Vanier

You really think the Tories could pull that one off? I just assumed they would be a distant third, or maybe second with like 22% if the Liberals crapped the bed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dark horse 3-way race: Ottawa-Vanier

You really think the Tories could pull that one off? I just assumed they would be a distant third, or maybe second with like 22% if the Liberals crapped the bed.

I don't think they can win; they have a vote ceiling of about 30% based on past results. But that could be enough to make a 3 way race. I doubt they'll get that good of a result though.