Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

If the numbers are correct, only Brampton South and Hamilton West Dundas Ancaster are competitive.

[SJ84]

With just a few days to go, here are my predictions:


OTTAWA

Carleton – PC
Kanata-Carleton – PC
Nepean – PC
Orleans – PC
Ottawa Centre – NDP
Ottawa South – PC
Ottawa-Vanier – Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean – NDP

EASTERN ONTARIO

Bay of Quinte – PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell – PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington – PC
Kingston and the Islands – NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston – PC
Leeds-Grenville-Thousands Islands and Rideau – PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke – PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry – PC

CENTRAL ONTARIO

Barrie-Innisfil – PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte – PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound – PC
Dufferin-Caledon – PC
Hailburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock – PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South – PC
Peterborough-Kawartha – PC
Simcoe Grey – PC
Simcoe North – PC
York-Simcoe – PC

DURHAM & YORK

Ajax – PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill – PC
Durham – PC
King-Vaughan – PC
Markham-Stouffville- PC
Markham-Thornhill – PC
Markham-Unionville – PC
Newmarket-Aurora – PC
Oshawa – NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge – PC
Richmond Hill – PC
Thornhill – PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge – PC
Whitby – PC

PEEL

Brampton Centre – PC
Brampton East – NDP
Brampton North – NDP
Brampton South – PC
Brampton West – NDP
Mississauga Centre – PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville – PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills – PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore – PC
Mississauga-Malton – Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville – Liberal

TORONTO

Scarborough-Agincourt – PC
Scarborough Centre – NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood – NDP
Scarborough North – PC
Scarborough-Rogue Park – NDP
Scarborough Southwest – NDP
Don Valley East – Liberal
Don Valley West – Liberal
Don Valley  North – PC
Eglinton-Lawrence – PC
Willowdale – PC
York Centre – PC
Beaches-East York – NDP
Davenport – NDP
Parkdale-High Park – NDP
Spadina-Fort York – Liberal
Toronto Centre – Liberal
Toronto-Danforth – NDP
Toronto-St. Paul’s – Liberal
University-Roseale – Liberal
Etobicoke Centre – Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore – PC
Etobicoke North – PC
Humber River-Black Creek – NDP
York South-Weston – NDP

HAMILTON, HALTON, NIAGARA

Burlington – PC
Flamborough-Glambrook – PC
Hamilton Centre – NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek – NDP
Hamilton Mountain – NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas – NDP
Milton – PC
Niagara Centre – NDP
Niagara Falls – NDP
Niagara West – PC
Oakville – PC
Oakville North-Burlington – PC
St. Catharines – NDP

MIDWESTERN ONTARIO

Brantford-Brant – NDP
Cambridge – PC
Guelph – GREEN
Haldimand-Norfolk – PC
Huron-Bruce – PC
Kitchener Centre – NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga – PC
Kitchener South-Hespeler – PC
Oxford – PC
Perth-Wellington – PC
Waterloo – NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills – PC

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Chatham-Kent-Leamington – NDP
Elgin-Middlesex-London – PC
Essex – NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex – PC
London-Fanshawe – NDP
London North Centre – NDP
London West – NDP
Sarina-Lambton – PC
Windsor-Tecumseh – NDP
Windsor West – NDP


NORTHERN ONTARIO

Algoma-Manitoulin – NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay – NDP
Nickel Belt – NDP
Nipissing – PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka – PC
Sault Ste. Marie – PC
Sudbury – NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane – NDP
Timmins – NDP

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Kenora-Rainy River – PC
Kiiwetinoong – NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan – NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North – NDP

PC – 70
NDP – 43
LIBERAL – 10
GREEN - 1

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean no offense by this but some of you should consider restraining yourselves from posting ill-advised hot takes. The PC's are polling 5-7% higher than their 2014 result at the provincial level. The NDP are polling nearly 20% higher than their 2014 result at the provinicial level. If you're questioning the NDP's ability to hold onto Parkdale or Trinity-Spadina, you're questioning whether they'll crack 30%. If you think that the PC's could surge in both ridings, you're wondering whether the PC's will come close to 45%. This is wildly inconsistent with polling.

One thing you have to realize, though: just because we're commenting on PC sign presence doesn't mean we're predicting they'll win.  Just that they'll outperform expectations.

And really: when you're a hardcore psephologist like many of us are, even the "losing" numbers in each riding and polling station are meaningful, whether as barometers or cultural/social indicators or guidelines for future campaigns, etc.  So it's a little more "involved", and subtle, than a matter of "ill-advised hot takes".

I agree that results are meaningful but I don't think that counting yard signs and overreacting to these yard sign counts is a wise choice, even if it's amusing. I think information can be obtained from yard signs, particularly in Canada, but I think you have to know what to look for.

I'll add that if those LIUNA polls are accurate that the PC's are set to win over 45% of the vote. Perhaps this is possible but I doubt this...

[DC Al Fine]

Innovative Research had the Liberals leading among voters who "Haven't paid much attention" to the campaign. Lol

[lilTommy]

[/quote]


Anyways I believe whomever wins will be a one term wonder.  Ford is very disliked and toxic so by 2022 people will be ready to throw him out.  NDP has too many inexperienced and radical candidates and that will show thus meaning they also lose in 2022.  By contrast if the PC's lose, maybe they will finally choose a reasonable leader like Christine Elliott and win a few terms.  Likewise if NDP loses, their strong showing will mean a much stronger slate of candidates as they will be seen as a government in waiting so putting together a cabinet that is talented and capable will be a lot easier in 2022 then this time.
[/quote]

What does inexperienced mean? what does radical mean? I'm tired of reading this, because it shows that people actually haven't read the profiles of the NDP candidates other then the 3 that have made headlines.... two for being pacifists, which is not radical, perhaps their comments around poppy's were BUT among progressives this is a argument/debate. The other for a f-bomb sign from 12 years ago... but that candidate is a known critic of police carding and excessive force, etc so aside from being a youth at a protest, we've seen worse signs against trump and trudeau.

Anyway, I looked at the candidates and here is my summary of their fields/qualifications, there is overlap since most candidates have experience or work in multiple fields i.e. both Edu work and union (teachers and union member):

56- women, 34- PoC, including 7 indigenous/first nations

Elected office (MPP, municipal, trustees, federations, executive)/Executive or Director - 28
Edu sector, teachers/College or University instructor/academia - 21
healthcare sector - 5
Business/Private sector/Self-employed - 20
Professionals/Law/research/public policy - 15
Unionist/Public sector worker - 23
Blue Collar/Labourer - 8
Social services, social work/community organisation/activist/advocate - 28
student - 3
Arts/media/journalism - 6

This is a fairly broad group of candidates, until you define what "inexperienced and radical" means... this is not the NDP list of candidates. Over 20% currently hold elected offices at various levels, the largest groups are expected for the NDP coming from the social services and union area, but also elected office holders and the Business community (which in itself was broad, many self-employed, finance sector, tech sector, consultants)
 

[adma]

I agree that results are meaningful but I don't think that counting yard signs and overreacting to these yard sign counts is a wise choice, even if it's amusing. I think information can be obtained from yard signs, particularly in Canada, but I think you have to know what to look for.

Actually, many of us *do* know what to look for, i.e. which campaigns have their act together, what the public mood is, where the bigger momentum's headed, etc.  (And even, as has often been noted in this election, the relative *absence* of lawn signs compared to past campaigns can be meaningful.)  And if the final e-day count differs from what these signs are telling, well, that carries its lessons, too.

In the case of Parkdale-High Park, the explosion of PC signs compared to the last election *is* noteworthy, and taking note *isn't* "overreaction", unless you feel that dwelling upon parties/candidates that aren't likely to win is a waste of time.  (Heck, go back to the 1995 Common Sense Revolution election, and even I was taking note of how much surprising lawn signage for the Tories there was in Parkdale--yes, it was "only" good for 16%; but given how that was triple the 1990 share, it wasn't a waste of time to note that "presence".)

In going from an electoral Point A to point B, some of us prefer the scenic routes to the Interstates.  So there.

[toaster]

Yard signs in Toronto especially are not really indicative of support in a riding. Most people living in condos/apartments (without a lawn) tend to be younger, and vote Liberal or NDP.

[Krago]

New poll from a company I've never heard of, based on 603 decided voters.

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NDP 39%
PC 38%
Lib 18%
Grn 4%

[ON Progressive]

New poll from a company I've never heard of, based on 603 decided voters.

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NDP 39%
PC 38%
Lib 18%
Grn 4%

I don't know about you, but 603 seems like a really, really small sample size.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you know what you're looking for - it's a big if but some people do - then signs can be a good indicator of under the radar electoral movement. Last year I noticed about two thirds of the way through the campaign or so that there were suddenly a lot more Labour posters up in the sketchier parts of a lot of small country towns around here, more than I'd seen for quite a few years. And, sure enough, it became clear on election night that Labour's traditional hick vote - that had largely abandoned the Party after the financial crisis - had returned. Not many seats flipped as a result (though it did bring David Drew back to the Commons) but it had an important impact on the national popular vote total.

They're certainly more reliable than constituency polls

[Hatman 🍁]

They're certainly more reliable than constituency polls

lol no. Have you been to Canada during an election?

Take Ottawa Centre for example. The NDP always wins the sign war, even if they lose the riding 50-20. Even the worst riding polls would show the Liberals ahead at least.

Just like riding polls, you need to know what to look for to decipher patterns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

As for constituency polling... ahem... if we're being honest, certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

[Krago]

New poll from a company I've never heard of, based on 603 decided voters.

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NDP 39%
PC 38%
Lib 18%
Grn 4%

I don't know about you, but 603 seems like a really, really small sample size.

An online poll with a small sample size from an unknown company.

If it shows the PCs in the lead:  Junk poll

If it shows the NDP in the lead:  Written by the Finger of God on stone tablets hewn from the living rock of Mount Sinai.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a poll in Canada. The chances therefore, no matter who it shows ahead, are that...

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

[Krago]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

I grew up in Windsor, Ontario.  Herb Gray held Windsor West for almost forty years.  In every federal election, huge Herb Gray signs were plastered on almost every lawn of the big houses that lined Talbot Rd, the road that connected the 401 to Huron Line.

When I drove home just before the 2002 by-election, I was shocked that there was not a single Liberal sign to greet me.  I decided that must mean one of two things: either there weren't enough volunteers to phone through their sign list, or they did call and the residents said no.  Either way, it wasn't a good portent for Liberal success.  They lost the by-election.

[ON Progressive]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

I agree. Riding polls are junk usually (for reasons out of Mainstreet's control, honestly), but I don't think Mainstreet is trying to scam people. I highly doubt there are enough people buying subscriptions for them to make money off these polls.

Polling is expensive, and the only people who would buy money for them are people like us who pay attention to this stuff a lot. That's a very small market, and not enough to make money off of.

[Krago]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

[ON Progressive]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

I honestly don't think Mainstreet should be blamed all that much for those bad riding polls though. I've yet to see anybody do reasonably accurate riding polling in any country. Maybe US House polls, but US CDs are far larger in population and geographic size than Canadian or British ridings so it's not a fair comparison.

[DC Al Fine]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

Hatman, how much does your standard election poll cost to do?

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

Hatman, how much does your standard election poll cost to do?

Depends on a lot of factors of course. But to do what Mainstreet is doing we would charge well in excess of $100K, I think.

[King of Kensington]

QM is hinting at some surprises in Bay of Quinte, Whitby and Elgin-Middlesex-London.

So maybe his polls are less "junky" now.

[UWS]

Something else to remember is that Ford may be out before 2022 even if the PCs win - something I would consider likely considering how controversial the Ford's have traditionally been. This gives the PCs time to recover before 2022, if their only problem is their candidate.

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

Anyway, Ford could lose in Etobicoke North (the district where he's running), which is something I wish. In fact, according to the website Too Close to Call, he's now leading by only 3 percentage points over the NDP in this district, which explains why I'm so sure the NDP can defeat Ford in Etobicoke North.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

And if the Conservatives lose the Ontario election to NDP in addition of losing their leader in Etobicoke North, I hope it will allow the Conservatives to learn an important lesson about what happens when we nominate someone like Doug Ford.

[King of Kensington]

I really, really doubt Ford loses in Etobicoke North.

First of all, this model does not take into account at all Ford's personal popularity in north Etobicoke.  Second, these seat projection models are kinda useless right now (yes, more useless than Mainstreet's riding polls!)