Ontario 2018 election

[ON Progressive]

Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

...how?

Look, most voters don't know who placed where in their riding last time round. Admitting her party's electoral irrelevance opens the Liberals up to the same nightmarish logic that saw the NDP further pulverised in 1999...

Yeah, people aren't going to vote for a party they are sure is going to lose the election.

[Lotuslander]

Back in the 1972 BC elxn, then BC NDP leader Dave Barrett ran on this strategy - he basically conceded WAC Bennett would win & ran on electing a "strong opposition". Guess what? Barrett won.

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the three-way race in University-Rosedale, Mainstreet.  Did they poll anybody south of Bloor or under 40?

[Tintrlvr]

I think it’s different from BC 2002 also in that there was realistically only one alternative party there. (The Greens didn’t really break through into a semblance of relevance until that election.) Here, there’s an alternative whether you’re on the right or the left of the Liberals.

[PeteB]

Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

...how?

Look, most voters don't know who placed where in their riding last time round. Admitting her party's electoral irrelevance opens the Liberals up to the same nightmarish logic that saw the NDP further pulverised in 1999...

Yeah, people aren't going to vote for a party they are sure is going to lose the election.

You think? I know tons of people in TO who believe that PC will win, but will still vote either for the Liberals or the NDP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Voters don't like hung parliaments anyway: to use the message "vote for us to create a minority government" is hardly going to go down well. They're not the Australian Democrats either; they can't really run on keeping the bastards honest.

[King of Kensington]

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

Snarky Youtube videos aside, the data says otherwise.

The GTA has huge sinkholes like York Region (an area of 1 million people where the NDP has no shot of winning a seat whatsoever) and Halton Region (another 500,000, same thing).  Significant parts of Mississauga too.

Van doesn't have anything like these high income outer suburbs with that kind of demographic and politcal influence.

The NDP holds the majority (18/33) of suburban Metro Vancouver) seats.  Even if the NDP got Horgan's share in Ontario I can't see the NDP getting close to half of the 905 seats.

It's not exactly clear where Van's outer suburbs begins - but I'd be inclined to exclude Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond (transit Zone 1).  But even a majority of the next zone suburbs are NDP-held: 6 out of 9 provincial ridings in Surrey, 3 out of 4 Tri-Cities, a seat in Delta, both seats in the Maple Ridge area etc.

Average HH income, 905 ridings:

Oakville 177,283
Oakville North-Burlington  146,529
King-Vaughan  145,923
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill  137,070
Mississauga-Lakeshore  130,832
Vaughan-Woodbridge   129,041
Thornhill  126,546
Markham-Stouffville  125,201
Milton  124,592
Mississauga-Streetsville  122,872
Whitby  121,180
Pickering-Uxbridge  120,517
Newmarket-Aurora  119,948
Markham-Unionville  117,310
Burlington    115,369
Mississauga-Erin Mills    115,151
Brampton East   113,121
Ajax    112,569
Markham-Thornhill  107,402
Brampton North    105,877
Brampton West   105,587
Richmond Hill  104,043
Mississauga-Malton  95,560
Brampton South  89,278
Mississauga Centre  86,181
Brampton Centre  84,618
Mississauga East-Cooksville  83,574
Oshawa  79,552

Outer suburbs of Vancouver:

Delta   111,923
South Surrey-White Rock  110,072
Langley-Aldegrove  107,710
Port Moody-Coquitlam  102,479
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge   99,022
Fleetwood-Port Kells  98,857
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam  94,205
Cloverdale-Langley City  93,893
Surrey-Newton  85,121
Surrey Centre  72,046

So I stand by my point.  Van's outer suburbs are more similar to Peel/Durham than York/Halton socioeconomically.

[King of Kensington]

Today's Mainstreet has some surprisingly close races in Willowdale and Etobicoke-Lakeshore - so maybe DeadFlagBlues is onto something (and yeah I know I look like a "hypocrite" for just dismissing their University-Rosedale poll).

[DabbingSanta]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

Actually not a bad move, given how both leading leaders are perceived as extreme. It might not take that many seats either, given that the greens are also winning in one.

[toaster]

NDP close in Etobicoke Lakeshore?

[PeteB]

I am just catching up so apologies if this was already mentioned or discussed.  Again, no real surprise but the Toronto Star endorses NDP, somewhat reluctantly, as a tool to stop Ford:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/06/01/ontario-voters-should-back-ndp-to-stop-doug-ford.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the NDP does have history in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Olivia Chow did surprisingly well in Willowdale.

[Hatman 🍁]

Voters don't like hung parliaments anyway: to use the message "vote for us to create a minority government" is hardly going to go down well. They're not the Australian Democrats either; they can't really run on keeping the bastards honest.

A lot of voters actually do like minority parliaments in Canada, since it has produced a lot of good things in our history and people are uncomfortable with one party having absolute power.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Uh, West Vancouver, North Vancouver? Port Coquitlam, etc?

Vancouver has lots of high income outer burbs. North and West Van in particular have massively outsized influence. Richmond is even starting to take on those characteristics now.

[King of Kensington]

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Uh, West Vancouver, North Vancouver? Port Coquitlam, etc?

Vancouver has lots of high income outer burbs. North and West Van in particular have massively outsized influence. Richmond is even starting to take on those characteristics now.

North Shore, Burnaby/New Westminster and Richmond are really more inner than outer suburbs. But even if they were, the North Shore is not really big enough to be a serious impediment to the NDP's competitiveness province-wide.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

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Uh, West Vancouver, North Vancouver? Port Coquitlam, etc?

Vancouver has lots of high income outer burbs. North and West Van in particular have massively outsized influence. Richmond is even starting to take on those characteristics now.

North Shore, Burnaby/New Westminster and Richmond are really more inner than outer suburbs. But the North Shore is not really big enough to be a sinkhole anyway representing a serious impediment to the NDP's competitiveness province-wide.

The NDP also holds one of the 4 North Shore seats anyway. What is really hurting the Ontario NDP is a lack of a Vancouver eastern suburb (Burnaby/New Westminster/Coquitlam) in the Toronto region.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Not when you take transit into account and densities. West Van/North Van outside of Lonsdale area is right up in the mountains like PoCo, and Port Moody.

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NDP won solely on the bridge toll issue. They were obliterated in the interior turning them into a regional party, much like the Ontario Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

Snarky Youtube videos aside, the data says otherwise.

The GTA has huge sinkholes like York Region (an area of 1 million people where the NDP has no shot of winning a seat whatsoever) and Halton Region (another 500,000, same thing).  Significant parts of Mississauga too.

Van doesn't have anything like these high income outer suburbs with that kind of demographic and politcal influence.

The NDP holds the majority (18/33) of suburban Metro Vancouver) seats.  Even if the NDP got Horgan's share in Ontario I can't see the NDP getting close to half of the 905 seats.

It's not exactly clear where Van's outer suburbs begins - but I'd be inclined to exclude Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond (transit Zone 1).  But even a majority of the next zone suburbs are NDP-held: 6 out of 9 provincial ridings in Surrey, 3 out of 4 Tri-Cities, a seat in Delta, both seats in the Maple Ridge area etc.

Average HH income, 905 ridings:

Oakville 177,283
Oakville North-Burlington  146,529
King-Vaughan  145,923
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill  137,070
Mississauga-Lakeshore  130,832
Vaughan-Woodbridge   129,041
Thornhill  126,546
Markham-Stouffville  125,201
Milton  124,592
Mississauga-Streetsville  122,872
Whitby  121,180
Pickering-Uxbridge  120,517
Newmarket-Aurora  119,948
Markham-Unionville  117,310
Burlington    115,369
Mississauga-Erin Mills    115,151
Brampton East   113,121
Ajax    112,569
Markham-Thornhill  107,402
Brampton North    105,877
Brampton West   105,587
Richmond Hill  104,043
Mississauga-Malton  95,560
Brampton South  89,278
Mississauga Centre  86,181
Brampton Centre  84,618
Mississauga East-Cooksville  83,574
Oshawa  79,552

Outer suburbs of Vancouver:

Delta   111,923
South Surrey-White Rock  110,072
Langley-Aldegrove  107,710
Port Moody-Coquitlam  102,479
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge   99,022
Fleetwood-Port Kells  98,857
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam  94,205
Cloverdale-Langley City  93,893
Surrey-Newton  85,121
Surrey Centre  72,046

So I stand by my point.  Van's outer suburbs are more similar to Peel/Durham than York/Halton socioeconomically.

Halifax West: $71,495

Feels bad man.

[adma]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

[adma]

Back in the 1972 BC elxn, then BC NDP leader Dave Barrett ran on this strategy - he basically conceded WAC Bennett would win & ran on electing a "strong opposition". Guess what? Barrett won.

So did Bob Rae relative to David Peterson in Ontario in 1990.

[DC Al Fine]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

If you are leading your party to an historic defeat, I'd lost say it's almost better to lose your seat.

[King of Kensington]

Not when you take transit into account and densities. West Van/North Van outside of Lonsdale area is right up in the mountains like PoCo, and Port Moody.

The North Shore may be rich but it has like 150,000 people.  Including the North Shore doesn't change my broader point.  It's not enough to seriously harm the NDP.

Both Toronto and Vancouver of course have wealthy, "establishment" areas.  It's really the outer ring that is different.  Van's are like Peel/Durham without York/Halton.

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The NDP would never win Vaughan or Aurora or Oakville regardless of the stance it takes on tolls.  
Also being weak in one region doesn't make the NDP a "regional party."  The BC Liberals are weak on Vancouver Island.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Politically influential, well out of proportion to their population? Check. Outer burb area? Also check. Very similar to these areas of Toronto. Toronto, of course is 5 million people, which is more than our entire province.

It would be the same as if these regions in Toronto were 300k people and not 150.

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They went -7 in one region and +7 on the other, turning their electoral distribution similar to Wynne's Liberals. Of course our politics are very different.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there a chance the PCs could get a majority, but the NDP take the riding Ford is running in?

[Pericles]

I'm not impressed by the Liberal tactics. They smack of desperation. "SorryNotSorry", despite what the pundits are saying, doesn't seem like a silver bullet-it's basically saying "sorry you're too dumb to see we're so great but we're really great". Conceding defeat before the votes are counted is bad practice and also seems likely to encourage strategic voting for the NDP. It's too difficult to know if a vote for the Liberals will mean an NDP minority(and Ontarians may just prefer a majority anyway) or a PC majority(which is likely in most cases due to FPP). The Liberals have a bunch of convoluted desperate arguments, but they seem likely to just finish them off as a party. They are probably doomed regardless, but they should have just defended their record with vigor and hoped for the best. Otherwise, if they're conceding Wynne should just take the logical next step and endorse the NDP. So her latest tactics are more helpful for Horwath than herself.