Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Wow.  I wonder if they timed this on purpose to be right before the election.  I guess the answer must be yes.

That is what Ford is alleging in his statement. And his mother is pretty much calling her an addict.

What a screwed up family....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

God bless the politics of Ontario!

[Bacon King]

my thinking is basically:

1. would-be Liberal voters prefer a Premier Horwath over Premier Ford, by a four to one margin
2. the Liberal campaign is failing so badly they literally conceded a week before the election
edit:
3. polling shows NDP ahead or at least even with the PCs and any attempt to guess results in individual ridings is a crapshoot at best.

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

Then you are unfortunatly probably going to be disappointed. Most of the data is pointed to a PC win - barring a secret NDP surge or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

[brucejoel99]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

Then you are unfortunatly probably going to be disappointed. Most of the data is pointed to a PC win - barring a secret NDP surge or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

God bless the politics of Ontario!

[Pericles]

A plausible outcome could be a minority government, around 5 Liberals and both NDP and Tories around 60 seats. NDP forms a government afterwards.

[PeteB]

A plausible outcome could be a minority government, around 5 Liberals and both NDP and Tories around 60 seats. NDP forms a government afterwards.

Plausible yes, but only if NDP has at least a 3-4% popular vote advantage over PCs, AND the Liberals manage to get above 20% (probably to around 22-23%). In that scenario, the distribution would be roughly: PC-58 seats, NDP-54 (or 53) seats, Liberals-12 seats (and Greens maybe 1 seat ).

Otherwise, if the PC and NDP vote is roughly equal, or even if NDP has a small advantage and the Liberal vote tanks, we are probably looking at a narrow PC majority.

[Pericles]

A plausible outcome could be a minority government, around 5 Liberals and both NDP and Tories around 60 seats. NDP forms a government afterwards.

Plausible yes, but only if NDP has at least a 3-4% popular vote advantage over PCs, AND the Liberals manage to get above 20% (probably to around 22-23%). In that scenario, the distribution would be roughly: PC-58 seats, NDP-54 (or 53) seats, Liberals-12 seats (and Greens maybe 1 seat ).

Otherwise, if the PC and NDP vote is roughly equal, or even if NDP has a small advantage and the Liberal vote tanks, we are probably looking at a narrow PC majority.

Maybe, but I'm a bit sceptical that the NDP really needs such a large advantage. This election is very hard to model with the Liberal collapse and NDP gains, so I'm expecting the unexpected.

[King of Kensington]

I mentioned Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Willowdale earlier.  It's funny to think that Burlington shows more potential for the NDP than Bay of Quinte too.

[toaster]

Andrea has added a stop in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  Guess she thinks they have a shot here!

[lilTommy]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Wow.  I wonder if they timed this on purpose to be right before the election.  I guess the answer must be yes.

That is what Ford is alleging in his statement. And his mother is pretty much calling her an addict.

What a screwed up family....

This might really hurt Doug, Rob Ford's wife basically said he mismanaged funds, and his company; gave himself a plush paycheck and is too uneducated for the role he was in... damn, from his own family! But this goes against his personal credibility, basically what hes been running on (when not saying the NDP will cause the apocalypse)
Doug is saying Renata (Doug wife) were extorting them for money.

[DabbingSanta]

What is it with all these poorly timed last minute scandals? Patrick Brown sexually harassing workers, now this. My tinfoil hat thinks the leftists/NDP are buying them out... I wonder if a lot of the Wynne hate stems from this same machine?

Edit: just to clarify, not saying these allegations aren't true

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I can't see many would-be PC voters caring one lick about this, but Liberal voters on the other hand.... this might be just what it takes to get them off the fence and vote NDP.

[MaxQue]

What is it with all these poorly timed last minute scandals? Patrick Brown sexually harassing workers, now this. My tinfoil hat thinks the leftists/NDP are buying them out... I wonder if a lot of the Wynne hate stems from this same machine?

Edit: just to clarify, not saying these allegations aren't true

I doubt the NDP is behind it, they would have went before the early vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

[ON Progressive]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

It would be sheer incompetence in itself to not time it a week earlier than this, honestly.

[Hatman 🍁]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

It would be sheer incompetence in itself to not time it a week earlier than this, honestly.

Most people haven't voted yet, many haven't made up their minds yet. If it were a week ago in this day in age with people having such short attention spans, it may've  become old news by now.

[ON Progressive]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

It would be sheer incompetence in itself to not time it a week earlier than this, honestly.

Most people haven't voted yet, many haven't made up their minds yet. If it were a week ago in this day in age with people having such short attention spans, it may've  become old news by now.

Good point. I believe there ARE significantly more undecideds than normal at this time of the campaign.

[PeteB]

Well, I can't see many would-be PC voters caring one lick about this, but Liberal voters on the other hand.... this might be just what it takes to get them off the fence and vote NDP.

We'll see how the story unfolds. Unfortunately the credibility of this breaking three days before the election is suspect.

Many voters are choosing PC as the lesser evil, not because of Doug Ford. While this will not change opinions on Ford, it may be enough to cause them to abstain. As for Liberal voters, those who are considering voting for Ford will probably not vote for NDP in any circumstance.

[DL]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

[Oryxslayer]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

[PeteB]

Apparently Adam Radwanski of the Globe feels that the litigation will hurt Ford:

Latest controversy to hit Doug Ford could be the most damaging
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-latest-controversy-to-hit-doug-ford-could-be-the-most-damaging/

[PeteB]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Agreed. This latest Ford affair could ensure seats like Vaughan Woodbridge go to the Liberals, and may also affect some races in Mississauga. But I see this more as a PC->Liberal transfer.

[adma]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

 NDP going all out trying to capitalize on Wynne's concession?

Other than LNC, I suspect the Libs are already polling in the basement in all of those seats, so there's little left to capitalize on.

[adma]

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

I agree with you.

Just talking about my riding, Woodstock is still quite conservative (I calculated the Woodstock #s earlier, it went 41-28 PC vs. NDP in 2014), and as long as that stays true, there's no path for anyone else to win Oxford. The rural areas can give the PCs over 60% in many cases too.

Ingersoll is the closest thing to an NDP stronghold (the NDP won there 39-33 over the PCs in 2014), but it's too small to make up for Woodstock at all.

Though in a funny way, I *do* find a left-field NDP gain in Oxford (or EML) more plausible than it looks--more so than in a lot of hitherto Liberal 905-belt ridings.  And I suspect that the Woodstock strain of PC support is more of a "parked" one and likelier to swing NDPward than that in rural Oxford County.  (Blame a lot of that on the growing sleeper factor of the auto economy.)

Maybe 85 or even 75 other seats, rather than 95?