Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

.

In fact, it is exactly ridings like these that have seen the biggest swings to the NDP.  

And if we must flip the argument around: a lot of prognosticators were making claims for the federal NDP in this territory in 2015 because the 2011 *NDP* margins were massive, in some cases 50%+, etc.  One never knows; Wynne as the new Mulcair, etc...

[ON Progressive]

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

I agree with you.

Just talking about my riding, Woodstock is still quite conservative (I calculated the Woodstock #s earlier, it went 41-28 PC vs. NDP in 2014), and as long as that stays true, there's no path for anyone else to win Oxford. The rural areas can give the PCs over 60% in many cases too.

Ingersoll is the closest thing to an NDP stronghold (the NDP won there 39-33 over the PCs in 2014), but it's too small to make up for Woodstock at all.

Though in a funny way, I *do* find a left-field NDP gain in Oxford (or EML) more plausible than it looks--more so than in a lot of hitherto Liberal 905-belt ridings.  And I suspect that the Woodstock strain of PC support is more of a "parked" one and likelier to swing NDPward than that in rural Oxford County.  (Blame a lot of that on the growing sleeper factor of the auto economy.)

Maybe 85 or even 75 other seats, rather than 95?

I do think you're right about it being parked in a sense. A lot of people here vote PC because of Ernie Hardeman being very personally popular. I think it would be competitive in an open seat in this type of environment, but not now.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Sheesh. Give us a little bit of credit, Bacon King.

[PeteB]

If I was advising Ford (ugh), irrespective who is right here, I would suggest he settles the lawsuit immediately and pay off Renata Ford. If she has a savvy lawyer, she could decide to hold a press conference tomorrow or Wednesday and "update" the media about this.

[adma]

I do think you're right about it being parked in a sense. A lot of people here vote PC because of Ernie Hardeman being very personally popular. I think it would be competitive in an open seat in this type of environment, but not now.

And besides the "parked PCs", also consider the matter of the 2014 *Liberal* vote: the same factors that put the Tories on top in Woodstock also gave the Libs results well above their riding average (particularly among the historic homes around Vansittart, where they won several polls)--I can definitely see them swinging NDP or at least finding Doug Ford too uncouth for consideration...

[PeteB]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Agreed. This latest Ford affair could ensure seats like Vaughan Woodbridge go to the Liberals, and may also affect some races in Mississauga. But I see this more as a PC->Liberal transfer.

And apparently Doug Ford feels the same:

Robert Benzie
@robertbenzie
While @fordnation's itinerary has one public event on it -- in Scarborough at 9:30 a.m. -- sources say he will do some unpublicized campaigning in Vaughan-Woodbridge

[DL]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Those people all deserted the Liberal Party a long time ago especially after years of Wynne remaking the OLP into a corrupt fiscally irresponsible version of the NDP. Every poll asks what’s left of Liberal voters who their second choice is and invariably they have NDP as their second choice over the PCs by a 5 to 1 margin

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet's polls have the Liberals ahead (or at least statistically tied) in just 5 ridings:  Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul's and Thunder Bay-Atikokan.

In their York Region and Mississauga riding polls the Liberals are stuck in the 20s and competing with the NDP for second place.  I can't see them turn things around in the 905 region.

[King of Kensington]

I was thinking (at least before this news broke) that the PCs are headed for around 70 seats.  There are several seats - mostly in outer Toronto - where they're likely to slip through with around 35-40% of the vote.  But maybe the NDP or even a Liberal or two will be able to obtain a plurality in these now if the PC vote drops off a bit.

[adma]

At this point, and in a curious extension of how DoFo became PC leader, I'm wondering about the possibility of the pre-Renatagate advance polls "accidentally" handing the PCs a majority, while the e-day voters decide otherwise...

[cp]

Whether or not it goes that far, this rather reminds me of the last second 'revelations' about Jack Layton during the 2011 campaign. They brought the NDP momentum in that campaign to a screeching halt and, IMHO, ensured the Tories got a majority.

[adma]

Whether or not it goes that far, this rather reminds me of the last second 'revelations' about Jack Layton during the 2011 campaign. They brought the NDP momentum in that campaign to a screeching halt and, IMHO, ensured the Tories got a majority.

And also the Sudbury byelection, which might have gone the other way had it been a week later.

[Krago]

Final Mainstreet poll:

https://www.scribd.com/document/381043555/Mainstreet-Ontario-June5

PC 39.0%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 20.2%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.7%

[jaichind]

Final Mainstreet poll:

https://www.scribd.com/document/381043555/Mainstreet-Ontario-June5

PC 39.0%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 20.2%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.7%

LIB support went up from their May 27th poll ? And this poll is done on June 3-4 which is after Wynne's speech ..

[ON Progressive]

Final Mainstreet poll:

https://www.scribd.com/document/381043555/Mainstreet-Ontario-June5

PC 39.0%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 20.2%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.7%

LIB support went up from their May 27th poll ? And this poll is done on June 3-4 which is after Wynne's speech ..

That could also be a dead cat bounce.

[PeteB]

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

[ON Progressive]

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

[PeteB]

Finally...Ford finds efficiencies:

Doug Ford finds millions in efficiencies in brother’s widow’s inheritance
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/doug-ford-finds-millions-in-efficiencies-in-brothers-widows-inheritance/

[DabbingSanta]

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

I wouldn't be so certain.... last minute dirty trick might bring him down.

[ON Progressive]

Finally...Ford finds efficiencies:

Doug Ford finds millions in efficiencies in brother’s widow’s inheritance
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/doug-ford-finds-millions-in-efficiencies-in-brothers-widows-inheritance/

Gotta love The Beaverton

[Krago]

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

------------------------------------

David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

[DabbingSanta]

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

------------------------------------

David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

Yeah, that's not happening. I think she'll pull a strong third around 20%, and in a normal election she'd be competitive.

[PeteB]

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

------------------------------------

David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

I don't believe this "poll", but there is a message hidden somewhere here. 

With the latest Mainstreet poll, it is obvious to many, that an NDP majority is virtually impossible (something I have been saying for a while).  The only options are:

1. PC majority
2. Minority government with NDP and Liberals (in some type of arrangement)
3. Minority government with PC and Liberals (presumably sans Ford and Wynne - highly unlikely)

Even in a scenario where PC and NDP are within 1-2 % of each other, NDP's roof is about 50-55 seats. For option #2 to happen, Liberals should therefore command 12+ seats.  Translated into percentages, Liberals MUST hit 23-25% - anything less and they will be on 5-8 seats (or less), and Tories will probably have a very slim majority.

For this to happen:

1. Liberals and NDP must stop trying to jostle for the role of top opposition party (NDP would win that title anyway) and start thinking strategically and playing to win power.

2. Focus must be on defeating PC candidates, not stealing each other's seats.  Yes, it may be fun to see Spadina-Ft. York go NDP, but that is ultimately pointless, in the context of who governs Ontario.

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

4. Wynne already conceded, so there is no shame in her saying that the Liberals will prop up an NDP government.  It may actually strengthen both parties (many "nervous" NDP voters would find it easier to vote NDP if they thought the Liberals would keep NDP fringe candidates away from power, and many disillusioned Liberals, doing that, would "punish" the Liberals and get an NDP government but in a situation, where Liberals get a chance to rebuild).

Will all this happen?  I doubt it, but that is the only path to a non-PC majority (barring the latest Ford scandal affecting results)!

[King of Kensington]

One interesting to note is that no strategic voting campaign with calls at the riding level has occurred  in this election.  Right now, Leadnow's focus is just to increase turnout and bring out progressive voters opposed to Ford, but doesn't call specifically which party to vote for.

[Krago]

Strategic voting folks like Leadnow or Working Families are quiet this election, because the Liberals running them don't want to encourage people to vote NDP - anywhere.

At the Working Families website, the latest 'news' is from April 29!

https://workingfamilies.ca/news/

On the Leadnow website, the #NeverFord campaign is almost an afterthought.

https://www.leadnow.ca/campaigns/

I hope they can defeat Tanya Granic Allen!

https://www.leadnow.ca/stopford/