Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

One interesting to note is that no strategic voting campaign with calls at the riding level has occurred  in this election.  Right now, Leadnow's focus is just to increase turnout and bring out progressive voters opposed to Ford, but doesn't call specifically which party to vote for.

Yes it is. People are misguided and believe what they want to believe. When the writ droppedd, Wynne believed that she will be the only non-PC alternative. She was dead wrong.  Before the last debate, I suggested that Wynne concede (even wrote a speech for her ). She didn't do it then, but eventually did - probably too late.

NDP is flying high and thinks it can win, but I am suggesting that NDP initiates strategic voting with the Liberals (as it's pointless for the Liberals to try and lead this) now. Of course,  they will probably ignore this or heed the advice on June the 8th, after they lose!

[King of Kensington]

Strategic voting folks like Leadnow or Working Families are quiet this election, because the Liberals running them don't want to encourage people to vote NDP - anywhere.

At the Working Families website, the latest 'news' is from April 29!

https://workingfamilies.ca/news/

On the Leadnow website, the #NeverFord campaign is almost an afterthought.

https://www.leadnow.ca/campaigns/

Leadnow is not a "Liberal front."  Right now one of their biggest concerns is fighting Kinder Morgan - unless this is some sort of ruse (see we want you think to think we're not Liberals, so let's "pretend" to fight KM).  In fact Leadnow's strategic voting was much more generous to the NDP than it should have been in the last federal election in their calls - Vancouver-Granville being an example where they endorsed the NDP!

Whining about Leadnow is just petty partisanship.

[King of Kensington]

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

Unfortunately it's not that easy.  Most of the 905 looks like a 45-25-25 split roughly and it doesn't seem realistic to that 80% of voters of either can be convinced to switch.  

I think the number of ridings where 1) it's actually close enough and 2) the Liberal is clearly best positioned to beat the PC is really, really small.  Don Valley West being the best example.

In other words, this is likely to be a mess.

[DL]

I would add that the former ED of LeadNow is running as an NDP candidate against Kathleen Wynne in her own Don Valley West seat

[Hatman 🍁]

The confusion about who to vote for strategically is going to confuse a lot of people. A lot of well meaning people are going to be voting for the wrong party. They're going to look at past results and say "the NDP has never won here" or "the NDP was a distant third last time" and vote Liberal, even though the NDP may be ahead of the Liberals because most voters don't do that kind of research and will just vote NDP to stop Ford.

[King of Kensington]

Well should there be a minority (seems unlikely given what the Liberals will be reduced to), the greatly reduced OLP (with what - like 5 seats?), Mike Schreiner of the Greens and the NDP should surely agree to move towards proportional representation in Ontario.

[Oryxslayer]

Well should there be a minority (seems unlikely given what the Liberals will be reduced to), the greatly reduced OLP (with what - like 5 seats?), Mike Schreiner of the Greens and the NDP should surely agree to move towards proportional representation in Ontario.

I doubt they would get the libs to agree to that - they benifit from FPTP. Same reason Trudeau quietly dropped the issue after he won.

[PeteB]

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

Unfortunately it's not that easy.  Most of the 905 looks like a 45-25-25 split roughly and it doesn't seem realistic to that 80% of voters of either can be convinced to switch.  

I think the number of ridings where 1) it's actually close enough and 2) the Liberal is clearly best positioned to beat the PC is really, really small.  Don Valley West being the best example.

In other words, this is likely to be a mess.

On the contrary, the areas I identified are very clear.  And I don't buy the "Liberals are dead" theory - they are just hibernating .  I purposely avoided Toronto, Ottawa, Eastern Ontario (Kingston, Peterborough) and the North (Thunder Bay), where this could be controversial.

From the Liberal side:
- As it stands now, NDP can win SW Ontario - Liberals can't (in spite of Wynne's trip to London today).  It's an easy decision.
- As it stands now, Brampton is going either NDP or PC - Liberals voting NDP there will ensure PC get no Brampton seats.
- As it stands now, Niagara is pretty much a lock for the NDP but Liberals voting for NDP may swing the pendulum in ridings like St. Catharines.

From the NDP side:
- As it stands now, there is no York region seats that the NDP can win.  Easy decision for NDP voters to help the Liberal incumbents in places like Vaughan Woodbridge and Richmond Hill.
- As it stands now, other than Oshawa (and maybe Durham), NDP cannot win any other Durham region seats.  But, NDP voters voting Liberal may actually help them win seats like Ajax (where Joe Dickson is actually in contention).
- NDP is almost guaranteed a shut-out in Mississauga (other than maybe Malton).  But NDP voting for Liberal would swing seats like Mississauga Centre, Streetsville, East Cooksville, Lakeshore and others.  Or they could be "pure", fight it out, and let the PC take them all and get a majority.

It doesn't look that tough if you are non-partisan.

[Krago]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

[jaichind]

Well should there be a minority (seems unlikely given what the Liberals will be reduced to), the greatly reduced OLP (with what - like 5 seats?), Mike Schreiner of the Greens and the NDP should surely agree to move towards proportional representation in Ontario.

I doubt they would get the libs to agree to that - they benifit from FPTP. Same reason Trudeau quietly dropped the issue after he won.

If this is such a big deal then NDP and Greens should work out an alliance model where they have seat adjustment since there is no way LIB or CON will agree to PR.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voters are often better at working out who to pick 'strategically' if that's the aim than organisations that try to promote tactical voting. You sometimes wonder how they know, but then crowd behaviour is one reason why elections are fascinating.

[Krago]

- As it stands now, Niagara is pretty much a lock for the NDP but Liberals voting for NDP may swing the pendulum in ridings like St. Catharines.

All your plan needs to work is for Jim Bradley to throw in the towel after 41 years.  Good luck.

[PeteB]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

[lilTommy]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would be an increase of thirteen points for the NDP compared to the last election - hardly ugly. Of course at 17% the Liberals might be struggling to win any seats at all (broadly speaking when your vote more than halves in an FPTP system you get wiped out or close to it...), though they'd probably fluke a few on split votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Voters are often better at working out who to pick 'strategically' if that's the aim than organisations that try to promote tactical voting. You sometimes wonder how they know, but then crowd behaviour is one reason why elections are fascinating.

I agree the organizations are terrible at this, but I'm not sure I would agree with the crowd knowing what to do. Especially in these kinds of 'realigning' type elections... at least in Canada.

[PeteB]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attaching the PCs.

Because she is trying to "save the furniture".  And the "logical" path is to target her former strongholds (most of which are NDP targets).

If the NDP gives her another way out, perhaps she will strike a deal (maybe not, but it's worth a try).  Because, as the numbers stand now, it's a landslide for PC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voters are often better at working out who to pick 'strategically' if that's the aim than organisations that try to promote tactical voting. You sometimes wonder how they know, but then crowd behaviour is one reason why elections are fascinating.

I agree the organizations are terrible at this, but I'm not sure I would agree with the crowd knowing what to do. Especially in these kinds of 'realigning' type elections... at least in Canada.

A better record than the various organisations anyway!

[DabbingSanta]

I wouldn't put much faith into the seat projections or even the vote projections for individual ridings. There is no way the NDP is winning LNC by 15 points, nor is Kate Graham getting only 10% of the vote. I still believe the PCs have a slim chance at winning this riding, and will be voting for them on Thursday.

[BigSkyBob]

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

------------------------------------

David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

I don't believe this "poll", but there is a message hidden somewhere here. 

With the latest Mainstreet poll, it is obvious to many, that an NDP majority is virtually impossible (something I have been saying for a while).  The only options are:

1. PC majority
2. Minority government with NDP and Liberals (in some type of arrangement)
3. Minority government with PC and Liberals (presumably sans Ford and Wynne - highly unlikely)

Even in a scenario where PC and NDP are within 1-2 % of each other, NDP's roof is about 50-55 seats. For option #2 to happen, Liberals should therefore command 12+ seats.  Translated into percentages, Liberals MUST hit 23-25% - anything less and they will be on 5-8 seats (or less), and Tories will probably have a very slim majority.

For this to happen:

1. Liberals and NDP must stop trying to jostle for the role of top opposition party (NDP would win that title anyway) and start thinking strategically and playing to win power.

2. Focus must be on defeating PC candidates, not stealing each other's seats.  Yes, it may be fun to see Spadina-Ft. York go NDP, but that is ultimately pointless, in the context of who governs Ontario.

3. Strategic voting - Liberals should be voting NDP in SW Ontario, Brampton and Niagara - NDP should be voting Liberal in Mississauga, York and Durham.  I have my thoughts on other regions, but those would be "controversial" - these should be easily accepted by all, except the fiercest NDP/Liberal partisans.

4. Wynne already conceded, so there is no shame in her saying that the Liberals will prop up an NDP government.  It may actually strengthen both parties (many "nervous" NDP voters would find it easier to vote NDP if they thought the Liberals would keep NDP fringe candidates away from power, and many disillusioned Liberals, doing that, would "punish" the Liberals and get an NDP government but in a situation, where Liberals get a chance to rebuild).

Will all this happen?  I doubt it, but that is the only path to a non-PC majority (barring the latest Ford scandal affecting results)!

A more accurate characterization of her remarks is that she has redefined "winning" as gaining enough seats to hang the chamber. Nor, is she releasing Liberal voters to take a tactical preference to further which of two remaining parties they prefer, but, rather, she is advocating that they stick with the Liberals in the hopes of winning as many possible. Furthermore,  she is telling Liberal voters to stop any possible NDP majority government as much as a PC majority one.

That posture is apt to result in less erosion than pretending they had a chance.

[PeteB]

In Renata-gate news, Ford held a press conference this morning, where he claimed that the charges against him and Deco Labels are false and that he will fight them in court.  He also claimed that he is helping his nephews and Renata Ford, but avoided addressing media requests that he release financials for Deco.

If he is just grandstanding, but is busy brokering a deal with his sister-in-law, he should be fine.  Otherwise, this could really blow up in his face.

[DL]

Because she is trying to "save the furniture".  And the "logical" path is to target her former strongholds (most of which are NDP targets).

Actually if you look at the tiny number of seats where the Liberals still have a chance, they are mostly OLP/PC contests. These would include Wynne's own Don Valley West seat, Eglinton Lawrence and possibly Don Valley East or North. If you believe the riding polls by Mainstreet the Liberals are locked in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's (not sure i believe it) and are only a few points behind the NDP in University-Rosedale (I expect the NDP to win that one pretty easily)

[DL]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

What exactly do you mean by "cooperate" If those numbers are correct there wont be any Liberals in the Ontario legislature for anyone to cooperate with!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah - doing the following as a thought experiment: take every Liberal percentage from last time and halve it. It won't quite work out like that even if the polls are broadly correct (in some places the fall won't be so sharp; in others you'll see a total collapse) but it gives an indication of the scale of the problem.