Ontario 2018 election

[RogueBeaver]

Leger mirrors Pollara at 39/38/17.

[PeteB]

Leger mirrors Pollara at 39/38/17.

Seat predictor for Leger:

PC - 72
NDP - 51
Liberal - 1

[King of Kensington]

^ Ottawa-Vanier?

[PeteB]

^ Ottawa-Vanier?

Yes

[PeteB]

And for good measure, Eric Grenier just updated his info (with Mainstreet and Pollara but NOT Leger):



I guess we may yet see the first Green MPP !

[King of Kensington]

A boost for Mike Colle in Eglinton-Lawrence?  His last NDP opponent has just endorsed him as a fighter for the community and the only way to stop Ford in that riding:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjqHgUSnN12/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=1u35uuupnicun

[DL]

A boost for Mike Colle in Eglinton-Lawrence?  His last NDP opponent has just endorsed him as a fighter for the community and the only way to stop Ford in that riding:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjqHgUSnN12/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=1u35uuupnicun

That guys is a bit of a loose canon. He wanted toi run in Eglinton-Lawrence for the NDP this time and the party barred him from running.

[King of Kensington]

I'm seeing a pattern with these Ottawa and uptown TO "John Tory Liberal" seats.  Some sort of coherent OLP base.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, our numbers this morning showed the NDP+1, and this afternoon showed the PCs+1, but that might be because of calling old people at home or something.

Really though, the last 2 weeks of the campaign have shown fairly consistent numbers across the board. Should give me lots of data to make some predictions

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I'm seeing a pattern with these Ottawa and uptown TO "John Tory Liberal" seats.  Some sort of coherent OLP base.

Do you think will see any significant amount of Harper11/Wynne18 vorters in Toronto?

[DL]

For the record, our numbers this morning showed the NDP+1, and this afternoon showed the PCs+1, but that might be because of calling old people at home or something.

Really though, the last 2 weeks of the campaign have shown fairly consistent numbers across the board. Should give me lots of data to make some predictions

The last EKOS poll gave the PCs a 4 point lead so even having it dead even represents somewhat of a shift

[King of Kensington]

Do you think will see any significant amount of Harper11/Wynne18 vorters in Toronto?

Yes, I think there are some.  They'd be like Romney/Clinton voters in the US.  Harper (and even Hudak) is more appealing in these constituencies than Ford is.

I can see DVW and Eg-Law looking roughly like a 40-35-20 split between the Liberals, PCs and NDP.

[DL]

I'm seeing a pattern with these Ottawa and uptown TO "John Tory Liberal" seats.  Some sort of coherent OLP base.

Do you think will see any significant amount of Harper11/Wynne18 vorters in Toronto?

Nah, the Liberals are so ridiculously unpopular that I could more easily see there being some Harper11/Horwath18 voters!

[mileslunn]

I'm seeing a pattern with these Ottawa and uptown TO "John Tory Liberal" seats.  Some sort of coherent OLP base.

Do you think will see any significant amount of Harper11/Wynne18 vorters in Toronto?

There are a fair number but most would be also Wynne 14 and Trudeau 15. Those that voted for either Hudak or Harper 15 are probably by and large going PC, obviously a few exceptions. You do probably though have some Harper 15 and Hudak 14 who will just not vote at all due to their dislike of Ford.

[King of Kensington]

KW and Mike Colle may be able to count on some Harper '11/never Ford '18 voters in the Jewish community. 

[DL]

Ford tends to be a major turn off in the Jewish community. The fact that he looks like he's from central casting as a sadistic concentration camp guard doesn't help!

[King of Kensington]

I'm thinking the top Liberal ridings will be won at around 40% or so - certainly they won't be getting a majority of the vote anywhere. They may slip up the middle in a few others with less in some three ways in outer Toronto and in Ottawa.  

But this is why the idea that the Liberals can win seats in York Region and Mississauga at this point strikes me as ridiculous. They'll need to pull into the 40s in these ridings to win them and that would mean driving down the NDP below 15% and maybe even 10% in order to overtake the PCs.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Opinion of this?

[PeteB]

Four reasons to vote Doug Ford:

1. Personal Trust
Trust me; even though my own sister-in-law doesn't

2. Successful Businessman
I will run a successful 830 Billion economy; even though I couldn't do that with my own business

3. Focused on Priorities
Cheap beer, affordable booze, pot on every corner - we deliver; trust me - I've done it...personally

4. Prepared to Govern
Why would you trust someone with a fully costed platform or someone who managed to grow Ontario's economy - with me you get that big surprise in the box, and a new day will dawn!

Yours truly

Doug Ford (Premier Esq.)

[ON Progressive]

Opinion of this?

Niagara Falls being to the right of Haldimand-Norfolk is one titanic hot take.

[DC Al Fine]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

[136or142]

With a bit of luck, Emmanuel Macron will win the election in a surprise upset.

[Hatman 🍁]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

Well, it was from Vote Compass.

Definitely a lot of issues with this ranking, I think.  I really don't think Carleton - a riding that nearly went Liberal in 2015 - is the most right wing in Ontario.

[DabbingSanta]

Doug Ford got my vote. Rae days, affirmative action, and Sunday shopping. The ghost of the NDP still haunts this great province.... The man has his faults, but he got the interest of working Ontarians in mind.

[DC Al Fine]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

Well, it was from Vote Compass.

Definitely a lot of issues with this ranking, I think.  I really don't think Carleton - a riding that nearly went Liberal in 2015 - is the most right wing in Ontario.

Is it just based off their responses? Tons of issues with that. Non representative samples, weird formulas for defining left/right etc.