Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

New Ekos poll?:

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1004140058901925888

that is our numbers from this morning that I mentioned.

Your number have the NDP tied with the PCs, but that looks to be a sizable increase for the NDP and rebound since late-may. Looking forward to seeing regional numbers

Yes PressProgress is left-leaning, Its a "'project" by the Broadbent Institute, so is definitely NDP friendly. But look at the Sun and tell me their aren't overtly Conservative right.
But if you can point to where any of this is incorrect, please do.. but this goes to show the caliber of the PC candidates.

[PeteB]

EPP, using their "gut feeling" methodology has called all but two seats: Sault Ste Marie and Ottawa South. 

Here's their Liberal holds (9 seats):

Ottawa-Vanier
Ottawa Centre
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Vaughan-Woodbridge

And their current projection is a narrow Tory majority:

PC - 64
NDP - 48
Liberal - 9
Green - 1
TCTC -2

[PeteB]

The LISPOP seat projector (as of yesterday) is also showing a PC majority:
PC - 67
NDP - 52
Liberal - 5

[DL]

EPP, using their "gut feeling" methodology has called all but two seats: Sault Ste Marie and Ottawa South. 

Here's their Liberal holds (9 seats):

Ottawa-Vanier
Ottawa Centre
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Vaughan-Woodbridge

The guy who runs EPP is a longtime Liberal hack. He invariably engages in some wishful thinking and puts his finger on the scale for the Liberals in his "predictions". I would say that Ottawa Centre and Toronto Centre are both very very likely to go NDP and that Vaughan-Woodbridge and Don Valley East are almost certain to go PC. The Liberals have a fighting chance in the other five but to get even 5 seats they'd have to run the tables...

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird though that he didn't include either Thunder Bay seat.

[King of Kensington]

I don't think the EPP guy has a nefarious agenda but I think he is just in denial about the state of the Liberals, so his thinking goes something like this:

Ottawa Centre:  Naqvi is popular and the OLP won by a lot last time...so Liberal!

Toronto Centre:  The NDP has never won it and the OLP won by a lot last time...so Liberal!

Vaughan-Woodbridge:  All these submissions say Italians are such loyal Liberals.  They would never vote Conservative...so this will be the one Liberal holdout in the 905!

Surprised he didn't make Liberal calls in Thunder Bay either.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people are in denial about Ottawa Centre.

[King of Kensington]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If there's a polling error in which direction do you think it'll be?

Could easily be in any direction. This is the most ridiculously uncertain election possible...

[King of Kensington]

And oddly no firm call in Ottawa South, which I would think is much more likely to go Liberal than Ottawa Centre, Toronto Centre, Don Valley East and Vaughan-Woodbridge.

[PeteB]

Some interesting stats from early voters  (draw your own conclusions)

Top 10 ridings in advance voting

1.Kingston and the Islands
2. Simcoe-Grey
3. Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
4. Orléans
5. Guelph
6. Simcoe North
7. Northumberland-Peterborough South
8. Ottawa Centre
9. Toronto-Danforth
10. Burlington

and

Top 10 Ridings with biggest % increase in advance turnout
1. Kitchener South-Hespeler
2. Brampton West
3. Markham-Unionville
4. Brampton South
5. Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
6. Markham Stouffville
7. University-Rosedale
8. Davenport
9. Etobicoke North
10. Toronto-Danforth

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

[PeteB]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I still think Naqvi may win, but if the Liberal vote totally implodes, it may be an easy NDP win.

[ON Progressive]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

[DC Al Fine]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I can understand push back on Halifax, but Dartmouth?! The NDP won it by 2% in 2011 and the Liberals were running a city councilor in 2015. That's a ridiculously easy pick up

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that Guelph, the Green riding, is in this top group. I guess the money the Greens poured in is really energizing turnout of lower-propensity voters.

[PeteB]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

[King of Kensington]

And one less Liberal prediction - EPP flipped Eg-Law from Liberal to PC.  The PCs could certainly take that but I think it's still a better bet for a holdout than most of his other calls.

[ON Progressive]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I can understand push back on Halifax, but Dartmouth?! The NDP won it by 2% in 2011 and the Liberals were running a city councilor in 2015. That's a ridiculously easy pick up

Sorry, I meant Sackville!

[King of Kensington]

In retrospect Stoffer losing is not a bad thing at all.

[PeteB]

The following graph was borrowed from tooclosetocall.ca:



So, collating this:

1. Probability of some kind of PC government: 79%
2. Probability of some kind of NDP government:20%
3. Probability of some kind of minority government:28%

[Oryxslayer]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

I'm going to say it suggests NDP enthusiasm, but it also shows the geographic problems facing the NDP. They are energized in these urban core seats, and will probably be winning them overwhelmingly, while the PC's get higher turnout in their key target seats.

[Oryxslayer]

The following graph was borrowed from tooclosetocall.ca:



So, collating this:

1. Probability of some kind of PC government: 79%
2. Probability of some kind of NDP government:20%
3. Probability of some kind of minority government:28%

Looks awfully like 538s 70%-30% chance for Trump in 2016, where the 305 won. Then I gave the PH a 30% in Malaysia, and they won as well. Not saying the NDP are going to win, I'm probably the biggest PC realist here, but the 30% has been coming up a lot these days.

[Hash]

I've been following this election, although I've been far more interested by the Mexican and Colombian elections, which probably makes me an irresponsible citizen or something.

I'm well and truly undecided (the only certainty is that I won't vote PC, naturally). I may strategically vote Liberal, given that I live in a riding where, in spite of everything, the Liberals probably are still the main competition to the PCs and where the NDP would still finish in third even in the current circumstances, but at this point even a strategic vote for the Liberals appears futile. I've also considered voting NDP, particularly if a strategic vote is useless at this point, even if that means kind of 'wasting' my vote (granted, I stood in line for an hour to write-in April Ludgate last year). I'll see where my mind takes me in the next 24 hours and decide from there.

edit: I'm predicting a PC majority, not because of 'structural advantages' but just because that's how I think things will fall. I hope to be proven wrong.