Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198861 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2325 on: June 06, 2018, 03:02:21 PM »

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.
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PeteB
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« Reply #2326 on: June 06, 2018, 03:03:48 PM »

Mainstreet's last riding polls sure seem to be overstating PC support.  30% in St. Paul's with Ford leading them?  I doubt it.  30% in University-Rosedale - did they mainly poll people in Rosedale?

It does seem strange unless ex-Liberal voters all decided to jump ship and vote PC. But I doubt that.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #2327 on: June 06, 2018, 03:04:07 PM »

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.
Are you going to be releasing any riding polls with the final poll tonight?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2328 on: June 06, 2018, 03:12:53 PM »

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

Is the NDP getting votes where they need them or are they just getting "respectable second" in a bunch of places?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #2329 on: June 06, 2018, 03:16:30 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 03:51:36 PM by ON Progressive »

Reminder of how badly off the Mainstreet polls were in BC 2017 (thanks DL for digging these up):

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

These 4 Mainstreet riding polls overestimated the Liberals by 9.5%, underestimated the NDP by 10%, and overestimated the Greens by 2%.
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DL
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« Reply #2330 on: June 06, 2018, 03:45:55 PM »

Reminder of how badly off the Mainstreet polls were in BC 2017:

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

These 4 Mainstreet riding polls overestimated the Liberals by 9.5%, underestimated the NDP by 10%, and overestimated the Greens by 2%.

Hey i was the one who dug up those stats...give credit where credit is due! :-)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2331 on: June 06, 2018, 03:48:23 PM »

Hey could you post those numbers a third time Ontario Progressive?  I didn't see them.
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PeteB
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« Reply #2332 on: June 06, 2018, 03:48:50 PM »

Final LISPOP seat projection:
PC - 69
NDP - 50
Liberal - 4
Green - 1
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2333 on: June 06, 2018, 03:49:27 PM »

It's interesting to note that not one but two party leaders seem to be depriving the NDP of target seats that they "should" win: Etobicoke North and Guelph.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2334 on: June 06, 2018, 03:50:26 PM »

Hey could you post those numbers a third time Ontario Progressive?  I didn't see them.

I have no idea why that double posted.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #2335 on: June 06, 2018, 04:29:12 PM »

  Don't know if this has been addressed yet, but is there much of a chance of potential Green voters going for NDP candidates in marginal seats?  I would think many such voters would be awfully tempted to jump ship and help stop Ford.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2336 on: June 06, 2018, 04:39:34 PM »

Don't know but I've spoken to people with Green signs in the Harbord Village area of University-Rosedale who are actually voting NDP and just personally really like (as do I) the Green candidate, Tim Grant who is the former president of the residents association.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2337 on: June 06, 2018, 05:21:04 PM »

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.
Are you going to be releasing any riding polls with the final poll tonight?

No, they are internal.

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

Is the NDP getting votes where they need them or are they just getting "respectable second" in a bunch of places?

Well, we didn't poll many ridings like that, but they're consistent with the NDP winning 40-50 seats, I'd say.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2338 on: June 06, 2018, 05:23:35 PM »

  Don't know if this has been addressed yet, but is there much of a chance of potential Green voters going for NDP candidates in marginal seats?  I would think many such voters would be awfully tempted to jump ship and help stop Ford.

I think the Green vote is going to bottom out, kind of like how it did in the 2011 federal election, where they still picked up a seat, due to concentrating all of their resources in one riding.
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DL
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« Reply #2339 on: June 06, 2018, 05:43:04 PM »

Don't know but I've spoken to people with Green signs in the Harbord Village area of University-Rosedale who are actually voting NDP and just personally really like (as do I) the Green candidate, Tim Grant who is the former president of the residents association.

The story I heard was that Tim Grant the Green candidate sits on the Committee of Adjustment at city hall so a lot of homeowners are paranoid that if they don’t put a Green sign on their front lawn they won’t  get their next building permit approved. Every election I see tons of Green signs in the ‘hood and then when the votes are counted they get the same 5% they always get
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #2340 on: June 06, 2018, 05:44:32 PM »

EKOS

PC 39.1% (+0.5%)
NDP 35.1% (+0.2%)
Liberal 18.9% (-0.4%)
Green 4.5% (-1.4%)
Other 2.4% (+1.2%)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_6_2018c.pdf
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PeteB
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« Reply #2341 on: June 06, 2018, 06:18:24 PM »

Did I hear someone say herding? Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2342 on: June 06, 2018, 06:23:08 PM »

BWV 208
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2343 on: June 06, 2018, 06:33:39 PM »

Does Jack MacLaren have any chance at all of holding on as a Trillium Party candidate in Kanata-Carleton?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2344 on: June 06, 2018, 06:36:54 PM »

Does Jack MacLaren have any chance at all of holding on as a Trillium Party candidate in Kanata-Carleton?

None whatsoever, he will likely get in the single digits. I expect PC's to win Kanata-Carleton.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2345 on: June 06, 2018, 06:48:47 PM »

Hatman - Around what time tomorrow will we see the riding projections. I know overall it is 67-75 PC, 41-49 NDP, 5-10 Liberal and 1 Green but be interested to see which ones.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2346 on: June 06, 2018, 06:53:42 PM »

Hatman - Around what time tomorrow will we see the riding projections. I know overall it is 67-75 PC, 41-49 NDP, 5-10 Liberal and 1 Green but be interested to see which ones.

Sometime in the AM, I hope.
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trebor204
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« Reply #2347 on: June 06, 2018, 08:17:35 PM »

The Final EKOS poll from the 2014 seemed to be the closest from the actual results. However the NDP did better on election night what EKOS had.

     
      Poll vs Actual
LIB  37.3  vs 38.65
PC   31.3 vs 31.25
NDP 19.2 vs 23.75


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls




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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2348 on: June 06, 2018, 08:59:34 PM »

The Final EKOS poll from the 2014 seemed to be the closest from the actual results. However the NDP did better on election night what EKOS had.

     
      Poll vs Actual
LIB  37.3  vs 38.65
PC   31.3 vs 31.25
NDP 19.2 vs 23.75


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls

The Liberals too, to a lesser extent. I think it makes sense that the very, very late deciders (people still saying they are undecided a day or two before the election) are mostly deciding between the Liberals and the NDP as a strategic matter.
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adma
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« Reply #2349 on: June 06, 2018, 09:29:40 PM »


Interestingly the old Beaches-Woodbine was a solid NDP riding since 1975, the north end, was Don Mills (East York plus but included areas now in Don Valley East and West) was more PC. Now, since about 2011 Beaches has trended OLP. in 2014 the NDP lost BEY because you can see a very noticeable N/S split; NDP winning the north, East York and the OLP winning the Beaches in the South. Still a bit swingy I feel, but there is a stronger OLP base then previously, due to just how expensive and NIMBY the area is here.

One factor explaining the N/S NDP "flip" through 2014: Michael Prue's home base was in the north, his having been the last mayor of East York and all, etc.
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