Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

[PeteB]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

No, but those 5% would probably be thrilled if PC wins a majority, Ford loses his seat, and Elliott is selected as the new PC leader and Premier.

I think there have been some other comments similar to this. The idea that Doug Ford would step down if he loses his seat but leads the P.Cs to a majority government is even more ridiculous than wishful thinking.

Who ever spoke about stepping down ?

And Ford will NOT lose his seat - this just shows the confusion and unhappiness with the choices on offer, with many voters.  I was just translating the cerebral logic in many voters.

[Krago]

Of the five seats with results that most closely mirrored the province-wide figures for the 2011 and 2014 provincial elections:

• Brantford--Brant
• St. Catharines
• Cambridge
• Kitchener South--Hespeler
• Kitchener Centre

I can see the NDP winning them all and still losing the election.


Also, the ridings I'm most surprised/disappointed that were not included in Mainstreet's riding polls were three from the above list (Brantford--Brant, Cambridge, Kitchener South--Hespeler) plus London North Centre and Vaughan--Woodbridge.

[Oryxslayer]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.

[PeteB]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.

As long as the PC and NDP are so far away from the political center, there is no worry for the Liberals, even if they don't do well today.  Ontario tends to go to the middle-of-the-road politics and that will not change; certainly not while the economic situation is stable.  In fact, had Kathleen Wynne relinquished power a few months ago to someone like Naqvi, we would now probably be discussing if the Liberals will hold on to a majority, and the NDP would be fighting to get its 15-20 seats.

Anyone kidding themselves that there is a tectonic political change into a right wing and left wing option (a la UK) will be sorely disappointed.  Of course, NDP could preempt Liberals' recovery by ditching some of their more radical policies, removing fringe candidates, and trying to occupy that middle ground, but I doubt it.  There is no appetite for that in rank and file NDPers, and even Horwath showed that she is reluctant to cross the unions (something that probably will cost her 5-10 seats).  More importantly, I doubt they even have the bandwidth to do all that, while simultaneously trying to absorb the fruits of all their new-found growth.  And, if they somehow did that, it would just be a Liberal party under another name.

I also don't think that, from that point of view, the Liberals really care who takes power.  They can present themselves as a sane and safe alternative, with both a PC and an NDP government.  But, unless there is a minority situation, they should prepare themselves for 4-5 years of political wilderness.

[DabbingSanta]

Voted!

[ON Progressive]

Besides the fact that the NDP policies aren't really particularly radical, the vast majority of voters don't care for policy anyway. What makes voters think you're moderate or extremist often comes down to tone and message, rather than actual policy.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.

Well you see, Ontario is not a western province, so it's not going to start voting like one in the long run, even if it does tonight. The demographics and the political institutions are just too different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's even a recent and highly relevant example from Ontario as to why you shouldn't automatically write off a party with a tradition behind it in a Canadian context: the NDP were reduced to an irrelevant rump - a sad ghost of a party - at the 1999 election, and now look.

[King of Kensington]

I'm calling for 65 seats and I feel I'm probably being a bit too generous to the NDP and the Liberals.  

I really really hope there's some leakage in the PC boat somewhere that deprives them of a majority.  Like those gung ho about the NDP in SW Ontario are right and they actually take some PC seats there (I don't think I have a single PC loss predicted).  Or the Soo goes NDP.  Or a surprise in somewhere like Burlington. Or they end up losing all these three ways in outer Toronto.  Some surprise in Mississauga.  Or like 10,000 voters in Vaughan that otherwise would have bolted to Ford decide that the idea of Del Duca as OLP leader is too good to pass up.  Or even Ford losing Etobicoke North (not bloody likely).  Come on Ontario...prove me wrong!

[mgop]

lol liberals are center? they funding sharia schools. thats far right even in muslim world.

[PeteB]

I'm calling for 65 seats and I feel I'm probably being a bit too generous to the NDP and the Liberals.  

I really really hope there's some leakage in the PC boat somewhere that deprives them of a majority.  Like those gung ho about the NDP in SW Ontario are right and they actually take some PC seats there (I don't think I have a single PC loss predicted).  Or the Soo goes NDP.  Or a surprise in somewhere like Burlington. Or they end up losing all these three ways in outer Toronto.  Some surprise in Mississauga.  Or like 10,000 voters in Vaughan that otherwise would have bolted to Ford decide that the idea of Del Duca as OLP leader is too good to pass up.  Or even Ford losing Etobicoke North (not bloody likely).  Come on Ontario...prove me wrong!

My full prediction, with riding projections, is on the other thread but in a nutshell, I am going out on a limb and saying it's (barely) a PC minority (with 62 seats).  But this assumes NDP does slightly better than expected in SW and Niagara, sweeps Brampton and captures a couple of Scarborough seats.  It also assumes that the Liberals actually rebound and win some seats besides TO and Ottawa (specifically Vaughan Woodbridge - still not giving up on Del Duca and 2 in Mississauga).  Being so close, it could easily swing into a PC majority though.

[toaster]

Voted.  

I still think it's going to be tight, and that many would-be Liberal voters change their minds last minute (and don't admit it publicly or to pollsters), which helps put the NDP above.

My (somewhat hopeful) prediction:
NDP- 57
Lib - 5
Green - 1

PC - 61

[Hash]

Since this thread is already coming up to 97 pages (!), I will be locking it in the next few hours and opening a dedicated results thread myself at that point. I may reopen this thread in the days after the election for non-results related post-mortems.

[jaichind]

Is not LIB getting to 8 seats a key threshold ? If LIB does not get to 8 seats then they will not achieve official party status and as a result if no party has a majority then it would be simpler to NDP to poach some of the LIB MPP to get to a majority.  If LIB get about 8 then it will have to be a party-to-party deal between NDP and LIB.

[DabbingSanta]

lol liberals are center? they funding sharia schools. thats far right even in muslim world.

What

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a present

[Njall]

For anyone paying attention, Election Prediction Project's final "projection" is out: 66 PC, 49 NDP, 8 OLP, 1 GRN. Only three changes since yesterday:

Ottawa South: TCTC -> OLP
Sault Ste. Marie: TCTC -> NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood: OLP -> PC

[Oryxslayer]

EKOS, aka Hatman's official prediction mapped. The takeaway methinks is the near absolute Tory sweep of the 905.

[Hatman 🍁]

I mapped it too, but thanks!

[DC Al Fine]

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

[Mike88]

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

I've found these two:

https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election.html

http://windsorstar.com/tag/2018-Ontario-Election

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

This one is best imo

https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

[MaxQue]

No result from Essex until 9:20PM, from Simcoe North and Bay of Quinte until 9:25PM and from York-Simcoe before 11:25PM due to various polling station being closed.

[Holmes]

No result from Essex until 9:20PM, from Simcoe North and Bay of Quinte until 9:25PM and from York-Simcoe before 11:25PM due to various polling station being closed.

Annoying, but Bay of Quinte is the only interesting one of this batch.