Ontario 2018 election

[Njall]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.

See, I knew I would be out of touch somewhere (though, as a recent type 1 diabetic, I'm supposed to start going to the eye doctor regularly, though I was probably 8 the last time I went!) . I don't wear glasses, but a quick google search shows that over 50% of the population has eye issues, so I'm guessing would need to go to the eye doctor annually?

I realize I also forgot to include things like toiletries which are also important and should be included in any calculations.

I would think that clothing costs would need to be higher than one article of clothing per month, especially in Canada (and especially if businesses begin forcing their minimum wage employees en masse to purchase their own uniforms). Speaking as a Calgarian (and I'm sure this applies throughout much of the country), I need to have enough clothes throughout the year to allow me to function in a variety of settings while the weather can be anywhere from positive 35 to negative 35 degrees at the margins, depending on the season. One's ability to advance professionally and/or within society can also partially depend on one's ability to dress well given the standards of appropriateness for the setting in question. Now, I'm not saying that those on living wage should have their wardrobes bursting with new clothes, but the wage should allow for the person to maintain an adequate supply of clothing for all seasons, including footwear and outerwear, ideally with a basic amount of higher-end/professional clothing for special occasions, job interviews, etc. Of course, determining this amount would be incredibly tricky.

[Njall]

Since this was written by Martin Regg Cohn I'm assuming Tories think having a leadership race now is a brilliant move:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/26/did-progressive-conservatives-just-give-away-the-game.html

FWIW, one of my hyperpartisan Conservative acquaintances posted that article on Facebook last night seemingly agreeing with Cohn, but that's anecdotal.

[Njall]

Is there any way Brown creates/leads another party into the election if he isn't allowed to run for the leadership?

Especially given how close we are to the election, I see that as impossible.

[Njall]

The National Post has reported the results of an internal poll done by Mainstreet for the Brown campaign:

Elliott: 28.85%
Brown: 28.29%
Ford: 22.24%
Mulroney: 14.15%
Allen: 6.46%

[Njall]

90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.

Agree I am skeptical although I find most models are bad at predicting this riding.  Asides from the 2015 federal election, it tends to go massively one way or another (Massively Liberal provincially in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2014 while federally in 2004, 2006, and 2008 while mostly conservative provincially in 1999 and federally in 2011).  I also think Doug Ford would probably have a stronger appeal here than say Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Eglinton-Lawrence as its more blue collar.  Of the 905 ridings I think Mississauga-Malton is probably the safest for the Liberals IMHO.

FWIW, while I can't find the exact riding numbers, the PCPO leadership results make Vaughn-Woodbridge look like a "satellite Ford Nation," riding, and according to some rough maps I threw together, it looks like Ford did around as well there as he did in ridings like York South-Weston.

[Njall]

What's the deal with Wynne using change as a theme in her ads? Seems like a dumb idea for government seeking a fifth term.

FWIW, campaigning on the idea of change without a new government was a part of the tactics that kept the Alberta PCs in government for 12 terms. Although you usually saw that more explicitly when there had been a change in the party leader.

[Njall]

PC are ahead 43-21-21(PC/Lib/NDP) in Etobicoke North

and 16% Green, which seems suspect.

Chalk that up to small sample sizes. The poll has an overall sample of 1871, which works out to a rough average of 75 respondents per riding.

[Njall]

Yes PressProgress is left-leaning, Its a "'project" by the Broadbent Institute, so is definitely NDP friendly. But look at the Sun and tell me their aren't overtly Conservative right.
But if you can point to where any of this is incorrect, please do.. but this goes to show the caliber of the PC candidates.

None of is technically incorrect. The only thing I’d point out is that 29 of the 34 candidates in that article are in there for the same thing: supposed Elections Ontario investigations into their possible relations to the Highway 407 thing. Unfortunately, Press Progress doesn’t link to a source for that one, but I seem to recall that at least some of those investigations were prompted by Liberal or NDP complaints.

Anyways, it’s not as if the article’s wrong, it’s just the framing that bugs me. On the other hand, it’s framing I’m willing to live with at this point given the swill that the Sun continues to pump out.

[Njall]

I noticed an interesting non-endorsement/'pick strong local candidates' endorsement piece from the Waterloo Region Record. They encourage voters to pick incumbents Daiene Vernile (OLP) in Kitchener Centre, Catherine Fife (NDP) in Waterloo, and Kathryn McGarry (OLP) in Cambridge, while giving a half-endorsement to Amy Fee (PC) in Kitchener South-Hespeler (I say "half-endorsement" because they name her as the strongest while encouraging voters to also check out other candidates). In Kitchener-Conestoga, they decry the ouster of incumbent MPP Michael Harris as a "disservice to democracy," while not naming an alternative to vote for.

[Njall]

For anyone paying attention, Election Prediction Project's final "projection" is out: 66 PC, 49 NDP, 8 OLP, 1 GRN. Only three changes since yesterday:

Ottawa South: TCTC -> OLP
Sault Ste. Marie: TCTC -> NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood: OLP -> PC