Ontario 2018 election

[136or142]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Mostly wealthy right wing business owners have long run propaganda efforts against lawyers on the basis of ridiculous arguments like this and other arguments.  The funny thing is, virtually all of these same right wing business owners have lawyers on retainer and have no problem being quick to sue others themselves.

[136or142]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

[136or142]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

The only Other Brampton seat would be the new Brampton North, ever more then Brampton Centre. The northern portion of old Brampton Spingdale, the NDP got 31% in 2014 in this riding, and most of that vote looks to be in the north, west of Dixie. Now it loses some polls north of Sandalwood to Brampton East but gains some polls though. Might be the ONDPs second best target. Especially if the ONDP can convince former candidate and current city Councillor Gurpreet Dhillon to run.
I have this feeling that Andrea/Jagmeet might try to convince Jagmeets brother Gurratan to run in Brampton East (very much cut from the same cloth as his brother).  

Apparently the riding that contains most of Jagmeet Singh's old riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton is Mississauga-Malton, and the NDP have nominated  television personality and Ontario Black History Society President Nikki Clarke to run there.

The surprise to me looking over the results of the last provincial election is how relatively well the NDP did in rural ridings like Oxford and some of the Eastern Ontario rural ridings (I think the more northern ones)  and how relatively well both the NDP and the Greens did in the 'cottage country' ridings north of Toronto like Huron-Bruce and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

It's hard to see the NDP winning these ridings because they are still Conservative strongholds, but I suppose if the electorate flips to the NDP during the campaign things could get interesting.

Edited:  My bad, Oxford is not in Eastern Ontario, I guess there are two major rural areas: much of Eastern Ontario outside of Ottawa, and parts of South Western Ontario.  There are also rural parts in, I guess, central northern Ontario, and the areas north of Toronto, but I still prefer to refer to that area as' cottage country.'

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

One thing for the NDP is that their support is somewhat concentrated.  So, I could list the specific 55 ridings, but it's basically

1.13 of the Toronto ridings.
2.10 of 10 of the Northern Ontario ridings (I count Parry Sound-Muskoka as 'cottage country' and 'Northumberland' in Eastern Ontario, as what is considered as 'North' in Ontario is already ridiculously 'South' geographically.  
3.6 ridings in the 905 (Oshawa, Durham and 4 in the 'older' Toronto suburbs of Brampton and Mississauga)
4.10 ridings in the region from London to Windsor where the NDP has generally been historically strong,
5.4 ridings in Hamilton,
6.7 ridings in the Kitchener-Waterloo to Niagara region where the NDP has historically been fairly strong,
7.3 smaller city ridings  (Kingston, Peterborough and St Catherines)
8.Brantford-Brant and Ottawa Centre.

[136or142]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

The NDP have polled, since November, anywhere from 19% to 28%; so 30-55 seats being competitive is probably accurate based on polling.
This really will depend on the OLP vote; if they tank in TO as they did in 2011 and as they were polled last, the OLP will be third party. When the Liberals sank to 25% in 201 they won 11 seats, but the NDP at 25% won 22 seats. Looking at the OLP seats, they need the 416 and 905; last poll had them statistically tied in both, (strong NDP in 416, weaker in 905) with those numbers Liberals could win only 5-6 seats in TO, PC and NDP could win 8-9 each. I think Durham will go PC more heavily then Peel, but even if the OLP losses half their 905 seats, that leaves them with 12 (Peel, Halton, York, Durham regions i'm counting here, i count 24 OLP seats under the new boundaries, similar to the fed count ON 14 and Fed 15 elections saw very similar Liberal wins).

Also look at leaders, Horwath is the most popular polled, more so then the party; Wynne is the opposite personally performs terrible but the OLP % is hanging on, floor is probably 25% like mentioned.
If Horwath can convince Left Liberals that it is time for a change in governent/leader and less policy (The ONDP and Liberals have similar platforms, on purpose since that's the only way Wynne can win) easily the NDP can break 30%. I think in more populist areas, Southwest and North you have/will see more NDP-PC swings.

I agree, there are OLP seats that could swing either NDP or PC depending on who surges, Brantford-Brant, Cambridge specifically; Scarb. North and Southwest, Bramp. North and East. London NC is much more favourable to the NDP. The above will determine that. If the parties are all around 30% give or take 4 points, this is hard to predict and more local factors like candidates and local big issues will come into play. I'm leaning more and more PC minority.

The Halton and I think the Peel region are north of the 905 (or maybe the Northern part of the 905.)  They've historically been conservative (Halton anyway.)  I'd be surprised if the P.Cs didn't win them.  I'd also expect the P.Cs to dominate the Simcoe area if that isn't the Peel region.

It would be an interesting election if the Liberal vote collapses but it's the NDP that surges in ridings like Oxford, the Haliburton area and even Halton.

[136or142]

Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?

[136or142]

Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?

See this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256686.0

They added two new ridings in the north.

Thanks!

[136or142]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

I believe the usual definition is based on a certain percentage of income going to housing.  I think it's somewhere between 25-33%

[136or142]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

I don't know that I've heard the term mentioned much of late, but this usually comes down to a debate of whether being above the poverty line includes just the basic necessities (which is itself subject to debate) or whether it allows people to 'participate in society.'  (I don't think that is the technical term, but I haven't heard the term mentioned much of late anyway.)

[136or142]

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.

Oh, would Marit Stiles replace Andrea Horwath as Ontario NDP leader?

[136or142]

I see there are articles about whether the Ontario Liberal government will release an early budget before the election.  You might have thought that the normal release time of the budget was something the Ontario Liberals would have thought about before setting the fixed election date.

[136or142]

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

Kellie Leitch obviously!

[136or142]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

There are plenty of women who would be disastrous choices for the PCs. Does anyone think Kellie Leitch would be at all appealing to anyone? And anyone who has seen Lisa MacLeod in action knows she is a loose cannon with very poor political instincts

I mentioned Kellie Leitch as  a joke. 

More seriously, what about Lisa Raitt?  She was mentioned as a possible candidate when Pat Brown won the leadership.

The best example of a person who became leader just before or during an election and then caught a wave is Ed Schreyer in Manitoba in 1969.

[136or142]

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

I think it will also depend on the degree (if any) that the P.C caucus knew about these allegations and either sat on their hands or tried to cover them up.  I have no clue what happened, so I'm not trying to suggest anything one way or the other. 

[136or142]

Erin O'Toole has also been mentioned.  He seems more interested in foreign and national policy issues (Armed Forces Veteran, former Veterans Affairs Minister, present Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister,) but, if it's worth anything, his father, John O'Toole, was a former P.C MPP.

[136or142]

Erin O'Toole has also been mentioned.  He seems more interested in foreign and national policy issues (Armed Forces Veteran, former Veterans Affairs Minister, present Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister,) but, if it's worth anything, his father, John O'Toole, was a former P.C MPP.

Also his riding Durham already has a candidate so that could be problematic too.  I think his best hope is Andrew Scheer loses in 2019 (which is likely but not certain) and as a more consensus candidate, he is the next leader and by 2023 the desire for change will be stronger so becoming prime-minister in 2023 than premier in 2018 seems more likely for him although making predictions on whom and where the Conservatives will be that far out is kind of silly.

I was just trying to point out some of the reasons why his name is in the mix should there be a leadership convention.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/stephen_taylor/status/956971193462022144

Very very credible intel: We very well could be seeing a Lisa Raitt run for PCPO leadership. #onpoli

Endorsed

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

To see what they're up against first.

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

To see what they're up against first.

The NDP and the PCs don't tend to fish from the same pond of voters (though that is changing)...but in any case local candidates don't matter that much. I mean seriously, give me a scenerio where i living in the downtown riding of University-Rosedale and an NDP member would say to myself "gee, if the PCs are led by Vic Fedeli we should run candidate X as a the local NDP candidate and if the PC leader is Rod Phillips, then we should run candidate Y". I'm sorry but i just cannot come up with a credible scenario like that.

There was some speculation the federal NDP might choose a different leader depending on who the federal Tories chose...but in the end, does anyone think that if the Tories had picked Bernier instead of Scheer it would have made any difference whatsoever to who the NDP chose? Would vast number of NDP have have said to themselves "Jagmeet Singh would have been good to run against Scheer, but since they picked Bernier, I guess we better go for Charlie Angus" 

Thanks.  I was just wondering.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/stephen_taylor/status/956971193462022144

Very very credible intel: We very well could be seeing a Lisa Raitt run for PCPO leadership. #onpoli

Endorsed

Lisa Raitt not running

https://globalnews.ca/news/3991311/lisa-raitt-wont-seek-ontario-pc-leadership/

[136or142]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Do you consider Northumberland to be in Northern Ontario?

[136or142]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

[136or142]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

Works for me.