Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

I am going to be a contrarian to the NDP predictions.  I carefully looked at all the seat projections and, even with the recent NDP surge, PCs are comfortably winning about 50-55 seats.  That means they only need about 10 seats from a pool of about 40 undecided seats, to have a majority. 


Even if the PCs are at 34-35%, with Liberal-NDP splits, they could win a majority.  Compared to PC and even the Liberals, the NDP vote is VERY inefficient (except in the North).  Let me explain by focusing at the regional realities of NDP numbers.

In the 416 area, they will come second in most ridings, but may only win 3-7 seats (Danforth, and Parkdale High Park are the only certain ones).  They may win Humber River-Blackcreek, Davenport, York South Weston and perhaps Beaches East York and one of the Scarborough seats, but that is it.  Worse, they could split the anti-PC vote in a number of inner-city ridings to allow PC wins (Willowdale, Don Valley East, Don Valley North and several Scarborough seats are at risk).  This is important because if PCs manage to add 5-6 seats in the 416 area, they will almost certainly have a majority.

In the 905, they will do incredibly well in Hamilton and Peel (Brampton and Mississauga), where even a clean sweep is possible, but will be completely shut out of York, Halton and Simcoe.  Depending on how they do in Durham (i.e. whether they win any seats besides Oshawa), NDP will have at best 12-15 seats in the 905.

In the East, even with polling at 30%, there are no certain seats for the NDP.  Kingston and the Islands seems the most likely, closely followed by Ottawa Centre, but Kingston is a university town and the liberals could still win, while Yasir Naqvi, in Ottawa Centre, is a likely future Liberal leader and may survive the challenge.  Other Ottawa ridings no NOT look promising (including Ottawa South) and the only possible gain for the NDP is the bellwether riding of Peterborough.  So only 1-3 seats in the East.

The North is one region where the NDP will do very well.  They will win between 8 and 11 of the 14 seats. The three central North PC seats will elude them, and I suspect the Liberals will keep at least one of their Thunder Bay MPPs, but the rest is fair game for the NDP.

Finally, Southwest is a mixed bag.  NDP is incredibly strong in places like London, Windsor, KWC and weak everywhere else.  What this means is that they will win at least 8 seats and may go as high as 14, but that is their ceiling (SW has 24 seats).

Taken together, these numbers equate to a range of between 32 and 50 seats.  If the Liberals are reduced to 10-15 seats, as seems very likely, that means a PC government.

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

[PeteB]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

[PeteB]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

Absolutely; and I think some will; Toronto-St.Paul's, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, I still think Eglinton-Lawrence is going Liberal, maybe Willodwdale and I'd say Scarborough-Guildwood as well, those are my picks for OLP seats in TO.

I actually think the PC vote in Toronto, will be inefficient, it will be too focused in Etobicoke and Scarborough, 3 Etobicoke ridings (If he wins his own, PCs have a starting point of 22%) York Centre, Scarborough North, Centre, Rouge park (I can see staying OLP), Agincourt, Don Valley East - 8-9. 

The Anti-Ford vote will be heaviest in TO, since well we have had experience with Doug and Rob; Its seeing if the OLP vote will migrate more to the NDP then the PCs in those key ridings like Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, these are NDP targets that should be also Ford PC targets, where the OLP vote will be important. Is this OLP vote more anti-Ford or die hard OLP? or too-rich-to-vote-NDP?

I don't disagree with your logic.  But, if you accept my analysis above that the PCs are currently about 12-15 seats short of a majority,  if they get these 5-6 TCTC seats in Toronto that you mention (such as the ones in Etobicoke, Scarborough and in the inner burbs), they will be inches away from forming a government.  They were never going to get seats like Toronto Centre, St. Paul's, Danforth or Parkdale High Park anyway, so it's not like they will be disappointed.

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

Seriously? It's a known fact that PC has had a lock on about 25-35 of these rural/suburban ridings for years and you are not considering that a structural advantage? Take a riding like  Parry Sound - Muskoka - it has elected conservatives in every election since 1999, often with over 50% of the vote. How does that support your thesis that coalitions and conditions constantly change? It's also a fact that the NDP has never been successful in penetrating small town Ontario, except in the North. Andrea Horvath is a formidable campaigner but excuse me for being somewhat sceptical that the NDP will do it now.  These smaller communities have often never voted by more than 10-15% for the NDP, and I am not convinced that it will suddenly change now.

To be clear, I am not discounting the NDP's chances of a breakthrough in some of these ridings, but it probably won't happen when the PC and NDP are tied in poll numbers. And in that environment, a Liberal implosion is more likely to help the PCs than the NDP. Also, when you start using words like "foolish", "no sense" and"rambling", you are foregoing rational arguments and letting your partisanship get in the way of clear analysis.

[PeteB]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

As urban and rural ridings have the same population, I'm very confused by what you're trying to say.

I would humbly disagree with you. Here is an example.

Electors by riding:

Parry Sound Muskoka - 62,109
London North Centre - 94,684

[PeteB]

It's also a fact that the NDP has never been successful in penetrating small town Ontario, except in the North. Andrea Horvath is a formidable campaigner but excuse me for being somewhat sceptical that the NDP will do it now.  These smaller communities have often never voted by more than 10-15% for the NDP, and I am not convinced that it will suddenly change now.

Might want to take a quick glance over the 1990 election before using words like 'never'. Different circumstances of course, but not exactly 'never'.

Your point is well taken - never is too strong a word . NDP did make rural gains in that election, especially in the SW, but that was as a result of a "perfect storm" with 3-way splits across several rural ridings, allowing NDP MPPs to be elected in places like Prince Edward Lennox with just 33% of the vote or in Huron with 34%. With the OLP going down fast, those conditions will probably not be repeated. Mind you, even in 1990, PCs managed to hold on to a lot of of the central and eastern rural seats.

[PeteB]

I think that the PC campaign team correctly identified Doug Ford's public perception as their biggest potential  liability. 

There was a piece by Doug Holyday yesterday in The Toronto Sun about how Doug Ford is a swell guy, specifically addressing the bully accusations. I am told that we should expect several high profile endorsements of Doug Ford's character, including some well known names not usually associated with PC. I have my doubts that it will shift a lot of opinion, but it may be enough if the current poll humbers hold.

[PeteB]

The news release was somewhat of a bombshell, but hardly devastating.  Probably just re-enforces the view many have of the Pcs, but not a massive game changer.  Not saying NDP won't benefit from it, but like all other past Ford transgressions, probably only a point or two shifts at most, but with how close things are that matters a lot more than when he had a double digit lead.

We have to hear the recording that the Liberals will release to judge if there is something to the accusations, but we know they are talking about Kinga Surma, PC candidate for Etobicoke Centre (photo below of the two of them):

[PeteB]

why hello sailor

And sometimes a picture speaks a thousand words

[PeteB]

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

[PeteB]

Well the tape is out - so far just conjecture.  No juicy parts.

PC Leader Doug Ford participated in collection of bogus party memberships, audio recording suggests
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

[PeteB]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

I think that the NDP are genuinely overwhelmed by all this.  We'll see how capable Andrea Horwath is in gearing up a party of protest and moulding it into a potential party of government.  Bob Rae did it on the fly and it didn't quite work out, but he also had a perfectly split OLP-PC vote assisting him  Horwath has no such luck (unless Ford somehow shoots himself in the foot).

BTW, I have heard about that EML poll (where the PC incumbent Yurek is neck and neck with the NDP challenger) and I find it hard to accept, knowing that PC had close to 50% in the past, but we'll see.

[PeteB]

Well the tape is out - so far just conjecture.  No juicy parts.

PC Leader Doug Ford participated in collection of bogus party memberships, audio recording suggests
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

Doesn't look this story has legs

Doug Ford calls Kinga Surma ‘family,’ Liberal-leaked audio ‘desperate’

Doug Ford described Kinga Surma – the Etobicoke Centre PC candidate he is accused of canvassing for memberships alongside in a 2016 audio tape – as “family” during a Thursday event in Tillsonburg, Ont.

[PeteB]

Big news: Hazel McCallion endorses Doug Ford.  Not sure that will make a big difference provincewide but could definitely help in Mississauga where she was very popular.  Definitely a good catch and helps deflect from the bad news.

As we discussed this morning .  There will be a video of the endorsement by tonight.

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

[PeteB]

BTW, somewhat confusingly, Hazel McCallion also endorsed Charles Sousa, the current Finance Minister, as the MPP in Mississauga Lakeshore today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et87aTDXjS0

[PeteB]

I'd really like to see a poll with the NDP with a comfortable lead in the City of Toronto.  Scarborough "should" be going NDP but Ford makes that harder.

I said it before but I will say it again - careful what you wish for.  If NDP has a major boost, and the Liberal vote totally tanks in Toronto, you will have NDP picking up a lot of TO seats, but you will also have PC pick up 7-10 extra seats, that they otherwise wouldn't.  And with the current polling, that is probably enough for a PC majority.

[PeteB]

BTW, somewhat confusingly, Hazel McCallion also endorsed Charles Sousa, the current Finance Minister, as the MPP in Mississauga Lakeshore today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et87aTDXjS0

To close this off - here's the video of today's McCallion endorsement of Doug Ford:

https://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=1401972

In the one-minute video, McCallion poked fun at Ontario Liberal ads in which they concede things haven't been "perfect" in Wynne's Ontario.

"Well, that's one way of putting it," she says. "As mayor, I never ran the city based on debt."

McCallion called Ford the right leader to "fix" the finances in Canada's largest province, improve health care and get hydro bills under control.

"I know the real Doug Ford and Doug is a family man. He's hardworking. He cares about people of all ages and can be trusted."

Ford, she says, will be "the people's premier."

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

[PeteB]

So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

Unless somehow a 1990-style wave delivers about a dozen or so seats in rural and rurban Ontario to the NDP offsets that.

With the current PC strength, I doubt NDP can win any purely rural PC-held ridings.  What the NDP could viably do is win over from the smaller PC-held urban/suburban ridings that have eluded them (places like Peterborough, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge, Sarnia Lambton, Brantford, Chatham Kent Leamington, etc.).  However that still leaves the PCs with a solid 50+ seats (assuming the aforementioned Liberal collapse in TO), before all of the TCTCs are considered.  As I said, NDP will need to go 5-6% ahead of PC AND not have any screw-ups, in order to have a chance of a majority or even a minority government. 

Color me sceptical but I simply don't believe that the NDP is disciplined enough to do this.  A few moments ago Andrea Horwath was on TV, railing against her own candidates for not following the party line.  She specifically singled out Joel Harden (Ottawa Centre) who was apparently having his "John Tory" moment and advocating for the integration of Catholic and public school boards!?!

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

I'd advise you to look at the 2011 transposition of federal results in Downtown Toronto to see what an 'orange wave' looked like. The NDP almost won Toronto Centre on its current boundaries. And that was only with 26% of the province-wide vote. And they don't have an incumbent either.

Anyway, since our client leaked it, here are the results from our poll:

https://twitter.com/russianbot3001/status/999754392554225669

Very VERY interesting poll (for those who have not looked showing seat projections as PC-66, NDP - 52 and Lib. - 6). I think that we are essentially saying the same thing - as things stand now PC are about to form a slim majority government. Of course things are too volatile to draw any firm conclusions.

What I am also saying is that a total Liberal collapse would benefit PCs more than NDP! Btw, I never implied that NDP could not win in places like Toronto Centre. With a total Liberal collapse, they absolutely could and may well do so. However, if they do, and if the PCs don't have their own implosion, the Liberals will also lose the outer TO ridings to the PCs!

[PeteB]

[With the current PC strength, I doubt NDP can win any purely rural PC-held ridings.  What the NDP could viably do is win over from the smaller PC-held urban/suburban ridings that have eluded them (places like Peterborough, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge, Sarnia Lambton, Brantford, Chatham Kent Leamington, etc.).  However that still leaves the PCs with a solid 50+ seats (assuming the aforementioned Liberal collapse in TO), before all of the TCTCs are considered.  As I said, NDP will need to go 5-6% ahead of PC AND not have any screw-ups, in order to have a chance of a majority or even a minority government.

Yeah, it's a real stretch to hope these types of seats will put the NDP ahead over the PCs if the PCs are making big gains in the GTA.  Many of the seats you listed above they'd be taking from the Liberals and not the PCs.  

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Can't disagree with what Harden says there.

Harden may well be right. In fact some would argue that John Tory may have been totally right in his stance on religious schools. But this is simply a point you do NOT bring up 13 days before polling day, in an election where you have a very reasonable chance of winning.

As a result, Andrea Horwath will now have to field numerous questions and provide explanations for this, instead of promoting her platform. That is the lack of discipline that I think will stop the NDP from going all the way (unless of course Doug Ford implodes).

[PeteB]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

To annoy you?

Pretty sure this is 99.9% correct