Ontario 2018 election (user search)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198837 times)
DabbingSanta
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« on: May 20, 2018, 04:24:05 PM »

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2018, 10:00:29 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 10:04:51 AM by DabbingSanta »

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2018, 10:02:33 AM »

Also worth mentioning Susan Truppe won my riding in 2011 as the federal candidate. She's the only conservative to pull it off. She lost in 2015, but that was expected.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2018, 11:34:10 AM »

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

I think, since this is your riding, you might have a better idea. But London North Centre has seen the NDP vote increase from 2007 at 16% to 2014 where the vote was 30%. I agree, its figuring out where the Liberal vote will go in certain areas. If we go back to the Old pre-95 districts, London North was a very solid PC seat, even staying PC in 90 (mostly north of Oxford west of Highbury).

You might have answered this, but the Liberals won almost all the polls west of Adelaide, where do you think this vote will migrate to?  

I believe the Old North vote will go conservative, at least North of Oxford. These are wealthy people which will not be hurt by the Ford platform.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2018, 11:37:24 AM »

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

London North Centre only went OLP by 6% in 2014, and the NDP are almost certainly going to do better than 2014 provincewide, let alone in Southwestern Ontario. It's ridiculous to rule out the NDP's chances of winning a riding they got 30% of the vote in 4 years ago, especially since they are going to do better this year in all likelihood.

We'll have to see how the working class areas vote, and how many liberals switch over to PC versus NDP. The liberals won in primarily rich areas, and I believe many would rather vote conservative than NDP.  Our candidate is also very moderate, at least compared to Ford. I think you'll be surprised
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2018, 12:27:25 PM »



Those Liberals east of Wonderland Rd will totally vote PC just like they did west of Wonderland Rd... oh wait...

Peggy Satler is a big name in our area.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2018, 09:00:34 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP manages to win. If you look at the polls overall, they've skyrocketed in support the past three weeks. 6, 8, even 10 points, and the NDP are leading in most polls. All it would take is a few rural ridings in southwestern Ontario to flip for a minority government. My riding London North Centre, which would have been an easy win for PC candidate Truppe, is expected to be won by an NDP candidate with little name recognition. If you look on social media, the public seems to believe the Conservatives do not have a platform (fake news), and there is some consensus that Doug Ford is a doofus.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2018, 09:02:13 PM »

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

I'm not sure about the political demographics up there, but in my riding white working class areas have been trending NDP.  Rural areas are a different story....
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2018, 03:14:20 PM »


Actually not a bad move, given how both leading leaders are perceived as extreme. It might not take that many seats either, given that the greens are also winning in one.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2018, 07:48:27 AM »

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

A fair number will switch for PC, my parents included.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2018, 08:13:50 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2018, 08:39:42 PM by DabbingSanta »

What is it with all these poorly timed last minute scandals? Patrick Brown sexually harassing workers, now this. My tinfoil hat thinks the leftists/NDP are buying them out... I wonder if a lot of the Wynne hate stems from this same machine?

Edit: just to clarify, not saying these allegations aren't true
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2018, 08:21:27 AM »

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

I wouldn't be so certain.... last minute dirty trick might bring him down.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2018, 09:49:35 AM »

Best poll ever.


Zach Armstrong @zb_armstrong

Replying to @davidakin @Kathleen_Wynne
Don't believe the polls David. #LDNOnt North Centre is very much in play.

------------------------------------

David Akin  🇨🇦 Retweeted Zach Armstrong

Oh, it’s definitely in play. But Liberals are not among the players this time. This is a straight-up Orange Vs Blue fight in LNC.

------------------------------------

Zach Armstrong‏ @zb_armstrong 
Replying to @davidakin

Show me a poll that has a sample size larger than our own: almost 15,000 conversations with people in the riding, 1/3 still undecided, 44.6% of decideds voting for @KateMarieGraham.

Yeah, that's not happening. I think she'll pull a strong third around 20%, and in a normal election she'd be competitive.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2018, 11:47:23 AM »

I wouldn't put much faith into the seat projections or even the vote projections for individual ridings. There is no way the NDP is winning LNC by 15 points, nor is Kate Graham getting only 10% of the vote. I still believe the PCs have a slim chance at winning this riding, and will be voting for them on Thursday.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2018, 07:31:06 PM »

Doug Ford got my vote. Rae days, affirmative action, and Sunday shopping. The ghost of the NDP still haunts this great province.... The man has his faults, but he got the interest of working Ontarians in mind.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2018, 08:42:54 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2018, 08:47:14 PM by DabbingSanta »

Doug Ford got my vote. Rae days, affirmative action, and Sunday shopping. The ghost of the NDP still haunts this great province.... The man has his faults, but he got the interest of working Ontarians in mind.

Your kidding right? he's a wealthy man, born into wealthy and only uses the working man to get elected. Trust, I lived through the Ford lost years. Over 1500 people lost their jobs, the eliminated transit routes to the very areas that were mostly working poor, closed libraries/communities centres, created new taxes and cut revenues at the same time, privatized services... the waste or fat? was not found, at all.
his interests, lay solely with helping the rich get richer (look at his tax plans) and eliminating the idea that the government can do good.

Rae days, you know that saved over 20 THOUSAND jobs right? Affirmative action, ya ending systemic racism, that's a bad thing.

... I think i got triggered? Tongue
back to polling!!


Keep drinking the leftist Kool aid. I know Ford isn't great, but he certainly beats socialism.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2018, 09:11:23 AM »

Voted!
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2018, 11:21:23 AM »

lol liberals are center? they funding sharia schools. thats far right even in muslim world.

What
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