Ontario 2018 election

[Oryxslayer]

I know I may be butting in, but this is one of the few threads that I regularly follow, and I feel I just should make a point about electability. First off, the school issue might just be a non-issue. Everywhere there are just some issues that the majority of people don't really care about. They are just happy to leave it the way it is and move on. Anyone who tries to reraise the issue gets shouted down. I don't know much about Ontario Politics, and you do, but perhaps Catholic schools are just that kind of issue. Horwath might just not want to raise the issue for fear of backlash, just like the Tories.

The second thing is that the impression I get is that the NDP isn't confined to permanent opposition - at least not this election. There is a narrow path that allows Horwath to win second place, see Ford get a Minority, and then form a Coalition with the Liberals to govern. In this scenario, it is beneficial to compromise with the more moderate left voters and move towards the center-left from the left to take the rolls of opposition. It also pays to have a manifesto that matches up with your potential coalition partner, so that you only really end up arguing about how much or how far should something change/stay the same, rather then argue about whether or not to even touch certain issues.

[Oryxslayer]

Abacus Data will be out around 3:00 PM this afternoon so interesting to see if they confirm the NDP momentum or not as this is Pollara's first poll.  Also don't have the crosstabs yet but I suspect they will have that later as it will be interesting to see the demographic and regional breakdown.

Yeah, I suspect its an outlier in regards to the NDP - though it may be true in a week. The important data point is that a lot of Lib voters are happy to go for NDP. If Horwath can consolidate the left at this debate, then this poll might prove accurate.

Or maybe I eat crow at 3PM

[Oryxslayer]

https://globalnews.ca/news/4208537/ontario-election-ndp-liberals-anti-ford/

Best Premier:
Horwath - 47%
Ford - 36%
Wynne - 18%

Best premier is often a leading indicator for how people will eventually vote....just sayin'

Not really, in BC the last polls found Clark with a 'better leader advantage' of ~4 points, even as she was down by a small popularity gap to Howard. If anything, modern world elections have shown how voters will happily hold their nose and vote for a leader they disapprove of. (SPD coalition vote, Macron and the left, Therisa May, Abe, and of course Trump)

[Oryxslayer]

While not a big difference, Ipsos shows PCs at 40.4% and NDP at 34.6% and Liberals 21.6% so if you ignore rounding it is actually 6 point difference.  Still NDP has momentum, but unless Liberals completely collapse they will need to pick up some soft PC support.  Would be quite interesting to see the PCs get over 40% and lose or the NDP as a matter of fact.  I don't believe any party has over gotten over 40% in Ontario and lost, but its happened a number of times in other provinces where you have two way races, happened in UK last year, and almost always is the case in the US where both parties get over 40%.  Wonder what the chances are now of both parties getting over 40%?

Here is a better question, what is the likelihood that the NDP wins the pop vote in the end, but still the Tories win a majority do to efficient vote divisions and the NDP-Lib spit in key areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

It appears to be getting lost in the hype, but the PC 35 number is the exact same one they had previously. So their sample is probably more biased away from the PCs, compared to every other poll, and the rest being captured by the NDP surge.

The regional distinction in the SW also captures the problems facing the NDP here. They need some gains in these small-town populist regions at the expense of the Tories, but the PCs are holding their own and maybe taking a NDP seat or two. This is the prime reason why I suspect even if the NDP win the pop vote, there is still a strong chance of either a PC majority, or a bare minority.

[Oryxslayer]

Rewatched the debate - was more focused on Colombia yesterday. Wynne definitely saved the furniture  for the Libs, and probably reversed the bleeding a bit. The interesting thing is that if the bleeding is reversed, this probably pushed the NDP down, since Ford never really was poaching Liberals  beyond those that were in his camp pre-leadership election. On the other hand, it means less Three-Way Tories pickups in Toronto, so perhaps it helps Horwath. The other thing of note is that this probably shuts down the Greens attempts at a seat in Guelph.

[Oryxslayer]

Steve Paikin just tweeted that Polly at Advanced Symbolics in their AI tracking shows the NDP has peaked and fallen back a bit.  Mainstreet has claimed to see the same thing while Innovative and Pollara showing the opposite, but Ipsos although pre-debate showing.  It seems things are all over the place although I've seen this quite often in the final week on elections and I suspect by weekend you will see polls start to converge.  I guess if there is one positive with these numbers, people will realize there are almost no safe ridings perhaps asides from the NDP held ones so more people will get out to vote realizing their vote might actually matter.

Well, 90% of the Tory/NDP ridings are safe, but we get the general purpose.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1001872072300097536

Looks like Higher deficits then the NDP, but lower then the OLP in 19-20, but by 21-22 they will have the highest deficits.

Someone did the costiung for Doug, and the Liberals did as well http://dougfordscostedplatform.ca/

Basically he's hiding what the PCs are going to do, he's either lying about all his promised tac cuts/revenue cuts meaning some/many will stay OR he will have to massively cut spending, I can see that there is some waste, but 11Billion worth?
To give you an Idea of what 11Billion is, that's basically what Ontario spends on Post Secondary and Training
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-2018-ontario-budget-in-charts-and-numbers/

Ontario, you can re-elect the Liberals or elect the NDP, or you can put Doug in Queen's Park and get what's inside this mystery box!

The Box! The Box!

^{This is one of my favorite Simpsons references.}

[Oryxslayer]

As horrible as it would be to have Ford become premier, I console myself that the worst case scenario for the NDP is now wayyyy better than the best case scenario appeared to be just a few months ago!

Also there is a good chance they will win in 2022 if this happens as Ford is a disaster walking so unlike Elliott who could have won two or three terms, Ford will likely be a one term wonder.  In addition an NDP this time would probably be a one term wonder too due to far too many weak candidates.  With their strong showing, they will probably have a much more talented slate next time around so in many ways I think it is blessing in disguise for whichever party loses.  For the Liberals though unless they somehow get 10-15 seats, they will have nothing to cheer about.

I suspect no matter what happens the Lib s will have their act together and the campaign in 2022 will resemble the 2015 campaign in how the NDP was really a 2011->2015 moment. In that regard, this might be the NDP's only chance before it returns to PC v Lib.  

[Oryxslayer]

 Something else to remember is that Ford may be out before 2022 even if the PCs win - something I would consider likely considering how controversial the Ford's have traditionally been. This gives the PCs time to recover before 2022, if their only problem is their candidate.

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

[Oryxslayer]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

Honestly, if you are still voting LIB at this point, there is little chance you will move to the NDP at the last moment. You more likely either want to save the parties furniture for the next election, or are a dead set partisan.

[Oryxslayer]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

Their own strongholds in the south and urban Toronto, its really quite simple. We already have deduced that there is a 4-5% geographic advantage against the NDP vote unless the NDP morphs and re-builds their party brand into a center-left party that can pick up suburban seats - a-la western NDP parties.

[Oryxslayer]

We already have deduced that there is a 4-5% geographic advantage against the NDP vote

You have done no such thing as that's not how these things work.

Here is a chart that I've prepared that tries to predict possible outcomes based on PC and NDP polling.

So 4% is the magic number. The NDP needs to win by 4 points. Makes sense.

[Oryxslayer]

As has been said I think the "Doug Ford headed for a Majority" headlines in the weekend before the election could work in the NDP's favor by galvanizing their softer/less-likely-to-vote supporters to go to the polls at a higher rate than they might have if it looked like the NDP was cruising (a la Hillary 2016) and by nudging whatever soft Libs are left to the NDP now that Premier Doug Ford is a very real possibility. But regardless its looking to be a nailbiter, which prob gives the PCs the edge, although I don't really buy that the NDP will be hurt *that* badly by geography, if they see the kind of swings polls suggest then it's gonna happen in weird and unexpected places and will probably be much bigger outside of their strongholds than within them. But the NDP hasn't taken off in the past week like I thought they might in the past week, although there's still a little less than a week left, that's still plenty of time for the Libs to further collapse or for the PCs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as is their wont. Or of course, the polls could be wildly wrong and either party could run away with it (not the Liberals though, although I'd love it if it did happen bc it'd be ing hysterical), this is Canadian polling we're talking about!

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

We had a poll I believe a few pages back that laid the groundwork for a Corbyn-esqe situation: 90% of PC supporters were committed towards voting, whereas only about 60% of NDPers were similarly committed. That said, don't go all in on a youth surge - provincial elections are like US midterms where turnout drops by a considerable margin. At least right now, I would be betting on a PC majority...but we all know that defeat and the Ontario PC's seem to go hand in hand.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a chance the PCs could get a majority, but the NDP take the riding Ford is running in?

Probably under a uniform swing situation the NDP could take the seat. But when factoring star power - something that exists in every election, there is no real chance I believe of this situation.

I don't have anything to add on Wynnes tactics, everyone has kinda already stated how they reek of desperation, my opinion.

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

Then you are unfortunatly probably going to be disappointed. Most of the data is pointed to a PC win - barring a secret NDP surge or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember back in 2016 when Liberals said that there would be a silent anti Trump vote? People across the country were supposed to see Trump as a threat to basic decency and civility in the voting booth. I hope left wingers aren't hoping for the same in Ontario.

There are two things that right now, parring a poll shift  (which with polling herding now, isn't coming to the public eye) or a PC screwup, seem to be the hopes of the NDP right now. One is that the small lead in some polls they have isn't nixed by geographic disadvantage, or that a secret surge pushes them over the line. This, like you said, isn't something to bet the horse on.

The other is hoping that Wynne's speech moves move voters from the LIBs to the NDP, giving the NDP advantage. I don't really buy this, I think a concession and early LIb leadership bickering is going to produce different results in different seats. In some known PC-NDP battlegrounds, it probably shifts voters to those two parties, but in other more upscale Lib seats in pulls some voters back from both parties. In this way, I suspect the results might be a wash, with the number still at 18%, but a different 18% then before the concession speech.

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

Then you are unfortunatly probably going to be disappointed. Most of the data is pointed to a PC win - barring a secret NDP surge or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

[Oryxslayer]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

[Oryxslayer]

Well should there be a minority (seems unlikely given what the Liberals will be reduced to), the greatly reduced OLP (with what - like 5 seats?), Mike Schreiner of the Greens and the NDP should surely agree to move towards proportional representation in Ontario.

I doubt they would get the libs to agree to that - they benifit from FPTP. Same reason Trudeau quietly dropped the issue after he won.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

This is because it is better for the libs to see Ford win - as long as they still have something of a caucus to come back to. It allows the libs to rebuild and then argue in 2022 that the other two parties are unwanted extremes and the ruling party should return to the saddle - a successful argument from the past.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that Guelph, the Green riding, is in this top group. I guess the money the Greens poured in is really energizing turnout of lower-propensity voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

I'm going to say it suggests NDP enthusiasm, but it also shows the geographic problems facing the NDP. They are energized in these urban core seats, and will probably be winning them overwhelmingly, while the PC's get higher turnout in their key target seats.

[Oryxslayer]

The following graph was borrowed from tooclosetocall.ca:



So, collating this:

1. Probability of some kind of PC government: 79%
2. Probability of some kind of NDP government:20%
3. Probability of some kind of minority government:28%

Looks awfully like 538s 70%-30% chance for Trump in 2016, where the 305 won. Then I gave the PH a 30% in Malaysia, and they won as well. Not saying the NDP are going to win, I'm probably the biggest PC realist here, but the 30% has been coming up a lot these days.

[Oryxslayer]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.