Ontario 2018 election

[SJ84]

If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 – PC 6 – NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 – PC 26 – NDP – 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 – PC 13 – NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 – PC 16 – NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 – PC 5 – NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.

[SJ84]

If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 – PC 6 – NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 – PC 26 – NDP – 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 – PC 13 – NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 – PC 16 – NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 – PC 5 – NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.

Of the 6 PC in Ontario, is Don Valley West one of those are do you still predict a Liberal win.  I think Wynne will hold her seat, but of the three leaders she is probably the most vulnerable to losing her own seat while Howarth is probably the safest.

I think Wynne will hold her seat but I think Denzil Minnan-Wong will narrowly win Don Valley East.

[SJ84]

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.

I really doubt they do. This wouldn't be Ontario 1985 or BC 2017 where the many term incumbent is nearly defeated and the cooperation puts the challengers over the top. Nor would it be Canada 1972, where the incumbent government is still in first place. The Ontario government is deeply unpopular and mired in scandal. The media's post election narrative would almost certainly be about the Liberal party being chastened. I don't see what the NDP would gain by propping that government up, when they can attack the Tories instead.

If Brown and the Tories are smart, the majority of campaign resources will go to the GTHA and Toronto – it’s the best play for the upcoming election. The fact is if you want to reform government in Ontario, you HAVE to win lots of seats in the GTHA and pick up, at minimum, a few Toronto seats. The Tories have the best shot at winning the election but they have to fight hard to win in the GTHA and Toronto.

If the Tories only win a minority government, I think the only way the Tories will govern is if the NDP are the official opposition party.

Why?

Andrea Horwath is on thin ice going into this election because if the NDP come in third again, she will have to step down as leader and resign. If the NDP slide in second place behind the minority Tories, Horwath can stay on as leader as she can say they made progressive on winning more seats and she will keep the government’s record in check. You can’t keep winning third place and expect to hold onto a leadership role. Then that means Patrick Brown and the Tories will have to work with a Kathleen Wynne-less Liberal government to get things done. I can see Horwath wanting to fight both parties at once to say the NDP is the only true alternative for the next Ontario election.

But what if the Liberals come in second behind an elected Tory minority government? It means Kathleen Wynne will make a deal with the Horwath-less NDP to work together as one party. Yes, I think Wynne would do that as she is desperate to hold onto power.

In the end, I’m hoping for PC majority government with Brown leading the way. It’s time for change in Ontario and that change starts with the Tories.

[SJ84]

Christine Elliott.

Honestly, I think she is the best bet. I like Vic Fedeli but Elliott could be the best person to lead the party.

[SJ84]

I'm hoping for a Christine Elliott win. I think she is exactly who the Tories need to lead them into the election. That said, Caroline Mulroney is my second choice.

[SJ84]

I'm hoping for a Christine Elliott win. I think she is exactly who the Tories need to lead them into the election. That said, Caroline Mulroney is my second choice.

same here.  Doug Ford would be a disaster and another example of them snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Mulroney is quite capable, but not tested thus somewhat of a risk.  Elliott not only would likely win, I think with her, I could see the party easily topping 45% and winning over 80 seats.  In fact if she is chosen, I think the premier might even lose her own seat whereas with Ford, Wynne would easily hold her own seat.  Ford would win all the rural ridings which will go PC no matter what, but very risk proposition in the 905 belt, whereas with Elliott, unless she does something stupid or has some scandal (both very unlikely), I could see her sweeping it like Harper did in 2011.

Ford would help win some seats in GTA areas like Scarborough and Etobicoke BUT... my biggest fear with Ford at the helm the PC's overall image would be tarnished for a long, long time. I also think the People's Guarantee is a fantastic platform for the Tories. I would hate to see Ford muck around with it. With that said, he is going to win the nomination in Etobicoke North and I have no doubt he can win it during the election so even if he loses the leadership, he will still be a MPP.

I think Mulroney is going to do very well but I can't deny that Elliott has a harder path to take to win the leadership. It's not going to surprise if there is a huge push for Mulroney but I'm hoping Elliott and her team have paths to a leadership victory. While I think the Tories can win the election with Mulroney at the helm, I can't help but feel like Elliott would be the absolute best person to lead the party into the election. I can see the Tories winning 70 - 75 seats with Elliott and I can see Mulroney winning 60 - 65 seats.

If Elliott or Mulroney are elected leader, I hope Andrea Horwath and the NDP understand they have a slim chance at winning the election. If I could tell her and her team anything, it would be to make them realize winning the election for them would be a tall order so they should target Toronto Liberal seats that they could win. Basically, try to come in second place so they can be the official opposition party and Horwath can hold onto her position as party leader.

[SJ84]

So it looks like the Ontario PC leadership candidates will be Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Rod Phillips. Anyone want to take a guess who will end up winning the leadership?

For the moment, I'm guessing Elliott but I think Mulroney could have enough push to get her to the top.

[SJ84]

So it looks like the Ontario PC leadership candidates will be Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Rod Phillips. Anyone want to take a guess who will end up winning the leadership?

For the moment, I'm guessing Elliott but I think Mulroney could have enough push to get her to the top.

Toss up between Elliott and Mulroney I think.  An outside chance of Doug Ford winning, but I think the cut off of February 16th will be biggest barrier.  A longer contest would have helped him more.  Essentially if he fails to get over 40% on the first ballot, then he is done whereas Mulroney and especially Elliott have plenty of room to grow on the second ballot.  They just have to avoid falling off it.

If Doug Ford stays in the race all the way to March 10th, I wonder if those who will support him would make Christine Elliott their second choice. If Ford doesn’t make it out of the first record and if there is no clear winner, having Elliott be the second choice for most of Ford’s supporters could help push Elliott over the top. Same with anyone who will support Rod Phillips – if his supporters back Elliott as a second choice.

My first choice is Elliott, followed by Caroline Mulroney but if Mulroney does win (Deep down I have a feeling she can run away with the leadership), I won’t lose any sleep over it because I think Mulroney would be a wonderful choice to lead the Tories in the election. However, I think the smartest and safest bet is going with Elliott who would hit the ground running if she wins the leadership.

I also can’t help but think Elliott and her team must see a good path to victory as this is Elliott’s third time running for the leadership. I guess we will see.

[SJ84]

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

It’s definitely a little dodgy in the PC projection numbers. Ridings such as Markham-Stouffville, Sault. Ste. Maire, King-Vaughan and Ajax are more likely going PC in June.

[SJ84]

Now with the leadership race in full swing what is everyone's thought on whom is most likely to win the PC leadership race.  I think it is truly a three way race and any of the three could win it although it will be interesting to see sign up stats as well as geographic distribution for first hints.  Likewise how do people think each would perform in a general election.  My thoughts are as follows:

Elliott: Sort of a consensus candidate so as long as no one wins on the first ballot and she comes in second or higher she would be favoured as I believe the majority of both Mulroney and Ford's second choices would go to her.  In a general election, she is without question the most electable and would probably do better than Brown would.  That being said even though she would be heavily favoured to win the election, nothing is guaranteed these days and a major screw up could even cost her.

Ford:  Has a strong loyal base and is getting lots of sign ups but whether it will be enough, tough to say.  Also geographic distribution is important as signing up a lot in the 416 but few elsewhere won't win you the leadership race.  He should do well on first ballot, but has little room for growth so if he gets above 45% on the first ballot should win it, if under 40% then won't.  In a general election he would be Kathleen Wynne's dream opponent as so much baggage to go after him with.  That being said he does have a loyal base so although he is the most risky choice, I still wouldn't rule him out of winning a general election, but think the odds would be much lower with him than the other two. 

Mulroney: Is definitely the establishment's favourite but not so sure how popular she is amongst the grassroots.  Still has a decent chance at winning, but could be more difficult than it seems on the surface.  In a general election, her weakness is lack of experience so easier to trip up.  She would be bad news for the Liberals (could appeal to many upper middle class professionals Brown and Hudak couldn't) but good news for the NDP (could be a turn off to a lot of blue collar workers as too much of an out of touch elitist).

I think Elliott is bad news for both Howarth and Wynne whereas if you are Wynne, Ford is who you would most want to win while if Howarth it would be Mulroney as I think Ford could have some appeal amongst blue collar workers but would be a huge turn off to the university educated crowd and upper middle class professionals.

I think you are correct that if there is no winner on the first ballot (I have a feeling there won’t be), then Christine Elliott’s chances of winning go up. I don’t see the majority of Doug Ford supporters picking Caroline Mulroney as the second choice nor do I see the majority of Mulroney supporters backing Ford. And you are right that it seems the establishment is pushing for Mulroney now but that could backfire. Look at what happened to Elliott in the 2015 leadership race; she was favoured by the PC establishment and Patrick Brown won in a landslide.

That said, it’s hard to predict who will win on March 10th. If I had to make a guess right now, it would be Christine Elliott but who knows. I think Elliott would be the best and safest person to lead the Tories into the June election. We will wait and see who the PC members pick in a few weeks.

[SJ84]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

[SJ84]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

Do you mean 3rd ballot? I can’t imagine Granic Allen’s supporters pulling her over the edge.

True. 3rd or 4th ballot. Caroline Mulroney could be the king or queen maker if she comes in a distant third. I really hope to see Christine Elliott win.

Anyone else want to make any predictions?

[SJ84]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

York West has no PC history either, it hasn't gone for them since 1955. The riding does have some NDP history though, going NDP from 1963 to 1981 and in 1990 (Giorgio Mammoliti... lol)  in Yorkview and from 1975 to 1985 (and 1990) in Downsview.

I heard Mammioliti might run for the PC's now that Ford is leader as he was a big Ford backer.

There are only 2 places where Mammioliti can run for the Tories - Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough Centre. Every Etibocoke and mid-town riding have candidates in place.

[SJ84]

With the NDP gaining, here is my prediction:

PC majority government with the NDP as the office opposition.

PC - 71 - 75 seats
NDP - 30 - 35 seats
LIB - 14 - 23 seats

[SJ84]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie has Georgian College.

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

[SJ84]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

Barrie seems like a pretty establishment friendly place, not a good place for Fordian Populism.

If both Barrie ridings can stay blue during the red wave of the federal election, then they can stay blue during the Ontario election. Being in Barrie recently, chatting with some people and the sea of blue lawn signs, I don’t see the NDP gaining in a seat. The NDP will put up a good fight but I suspect the Tories will win.

[SJ84]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

My prediction:

WHITBY - PCs and NDP are tied at the moment

BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE - PCs are leading slightly but the Green Party is doing shockingly well in second place

BARRIE-INNISFIL - PCs have a 15 plus lead over the NDP

[SJ84]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

My prediction:

WHITBY - PCs and NDP are tied at the moment

BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE - PCs are leading slightly but the Green Party is doing shockingly well in second place

BARRIE-INNISFIL - PCs have a 15 plus lead over the NDP

Why do you think the Greens are second in BSOM? I thought they were throwing all of their eggs into the Guelph basket.

I was in Barrie a week ago and a few friends from there have said the Green's have a good ground game. Also, I saw the Green's have A LOT of lawn signs up. I was surprised how many signs I saw.

In the south Barrie, there has to be at least 1000 - 1100 PC lawn signs on private properties and I've been told the PC candidate has been gaining lots of support from lots of door-knocking.

[SJ84]

With just a few days to go, here are my predictions:


OTTAWA

Carleton – PC
Kanata-Carleton – PC
Nepean – PC
Orleans – PC
Ottawa Centre – NDP
Ottawa South – PC
Ottawa-Vanier – Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean – NDP

EASTERN ONTARIO

Bay of Quinte – PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell – PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington – PC
Kingston and the Islands – NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston – PC
Leeds-Grenville-Thousands Islands and Rideau – PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke – PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry – PC

CENTRAL ONTARIO

Barrie-Innisfil – PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte – PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound – PC
Dufferin-Caledon – PC
Hailburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock – PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South – PC
Peterborough-Kawartha – PC
Simcoe Grey – PC
Simcoe North – PC
York-Simcoe – PC

DURHAM & YORK

Ajax – PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill – PC
Durham – PC
King-Vaughan – PC
Markham-Stouffville- PC
Markham-Thornhill – PC
Markham-Unionville – PC
Newmarket-Aurora – PC
Oshawa – NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge – PC
Richmond Hill – PC
Thornhill – PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge – PC
Whitby – PC

PEEL

Brampton Centre – PC
Brampton East – NDP
Brampton North – NDP
Brampton South – PC
Brampton West – NDP
Mississauga Centre – PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville – PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills – PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore – PC
Mississauga-Malton – Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville – Liberal

TORONTO

Scarborough-Agincourt – PC
Scarborough Centre – NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood – NDP
Scarborough North – PC
Scarborough-Rogue Park – NDP
Scarborough Southwest – NDP
Don Valley East – Liberal
Don Valley West – Liberal
Don Valley  North – PC
Eglinton-Lawrence – PC
Willowdale – PC
York Centre – PC
Beaches-East York – NDP
Davenport – NDP
Parkdale-High Park – NDP
Spadina-Fort York – Liberal
Toronto Centre – Liberal
Toronto-Danforth – NDP
Toronto-St. Paul’s – Liberal
University-Roseale – Liberal
Etobicoke Centre – Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore – PC
Etobicoke North – PC
Humber River-Black Creek – NDP
York South-Weston – NDP

HAMILTON, HALTON, NIAGARA

Burlington – PC
Flamborough-Glambrook – PC
Hamilton Centre – NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek – NDP
Hamilton Mountain – NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas – NDP
Milton – PC
Niagara Centre – NDP
Niagara Falls – NDP
Niagara West – PC
Oakville – PC
Oakville North-Burlington – PC
St. Catharines – NDP

MIDWESTERN ONTARIO

Brantford-Brant – NDP
Cambridge – PC
Guelph – GREEN
Haldimand-Norfolk – PC
Huron-Bruce – PC
Kitchener Centre – NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga – PC
Kitchener South-Hespeler – PC
Oxford – PC
Perth-Wellington – PC
Waterloo – NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills – PC

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Chatham-Kent-Leamington – NDP
Elgin-Middlesex-London – PC
Essex – NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex – PC
London-Fanshawe – NDP
London North Centre – NDP
London West – NDP
Sarina-Lambton – PC
Windsor-Tecumseh – NDP
Windsor West – NDP


NORTHERN ONTARIO

Algoma-Manitoulin – NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay – NDP
Nickel Belt – NDP
Nipissing – PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka – PC
Sault Ste. Marie – PC
Sudbury – NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane – NDP
Timmins – NDP

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Kenora-Rainy River – PC
Kiiwetinoong – NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan – NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North – NDP

PC – 70
NDP – 43
LIBERAL – 10
GREEN - 1