Ontario 2018 election

[MaxQue]

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.

Every time I went to North Bay, I wondered where the people worked. There is no clear industry or major source of employment.

[MaxQue]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

[MaxQue]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.

[MaxQue]

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

So, a racist or an homophobe?

[MaxQue]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

Followed by losing by a large margin, losing 60% of their seats and sitting 15 years in the opposition?

[MaxQue]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Broadly and traditionally speaking, "Northern Ontario" is/was anything which, pre-regionalization,  qualified as a "district" as opposed to a "county".  Thus, Parry Sound and Muskoka.  But not Renfrew, Haliburton, etc etc.

Muskoka isn't culturally Northern, through. Parry Sound, we can argue. Powassan is northern, to me.

[MaxQue]

What is even wierder is than Fedeli is talking about rot in the party, huge structural issues, financial irregularities and inaccurate memberhsip lists and than fixing the party will be a "massive undertaking".

[MaxQue]

This is telling a lot about the current state of Ontario PC than Dog Ford is better than 2 of the other candidates.

[MaxQue]

Randy Hillier is going all-out on Brown, accusing him of financial irregularities in the investiture vote for a candidate in Toronto, for buying an house on the side of Simcoe Lake and some foreign trips.

[MaxQue]

I just think it's ironic people say Wynne is the worst Premier even when the PC leader is the brother of the worst Toronto mayor ever.

[MaxQue]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

[MaxQue]

Where is the mention of getting rid of the Catholic schools?

Getting rid of Catholic schools require amending the Constitution, which the Federal won't do unless there is a general consensus (like there was in Québec and Newfoundland).

All other provinces that got out of it were able to do it.  If Ontario wanted out of the business of being discriminatory, and fully funding these schools, they could do it.

Andrea Horwath's message to young Gay francophones (who can't work openly in a Catholic system): I think you should only have access to 20% of teaching jobs.  That's the message I'm getting anyway. 

The solution is to ban gay hiring discrimination there.

[MaxQue]

From having a former sister-in-law which was a Francophone living on Ontario, the secular French system in many zones is utter crap. When she moved back to Quebec, the school had to give her special measures, as she had elementary level French despite being in Grade 10. When she moved back, her father put her in the superior (but insanely strict) Catholic system.

[MaxQue]

The PC crowd outside the debate hall was in fact paid actors.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

[MaxQue]

I've got a NDP-Liberal tie, ugh.

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=8c96d69ace0d29ee7ec547e36b9535a2b52cc1311525905649

[MaxQue]

While the poll out today is Forum so I always take them with a grain of salt they are good at picking up trends.  Clearly the NDP has the momentum.  Would be interesting if Nanos, Ekos, Innovative, and Mainstreet come out with an Ontario poll as they've always showed the NDP much lower than the one's reporting so far so will they show the NDP pulling ahead or Liberals still in second.  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover.  For the PCs somewhat bad news but as long as they stay north of 40% they will be fine as well as if you look at age breakdowns its really millennials where the NDP is doing well amongst and PCs still ahead amongst other age groups.  Also all of them seem to show a strong gender gap with NDP tied or ahead amongst female voters, but amongst male voters PCs still well ahead close to 50%.  I think Ford's style is a turnoff to women voters thus why you get a large gender gap.

Nanos won't see NDP 2nd, as they are anti-NDP hacks with "sudden" shifts just before the election to have a good record.

[MaxQue]

For the NDP, I would warn against going too moderate, too, given what happened to Mulcair.

[MaxQue]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

[MaxQue]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

I'm aware, I have family in Angus. My point is than Barrie and the rest of the county voting patterns are diverging.

[MaxQue]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

I'm not that sure. NDP isn't getting to 38% without significant unexpected swings. I would also argue than the PC vote isn't efficient either, I expect very larges majorities in rural seats they currently hold.
In general, if you have a 2 or 3% lead, the reality will give you a lead in seats.

[MaxQue]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

As urban and rural ridings have the same population, I'm very confused by what you're trying to say.

[MaxQue]

To close the 1990 Family Coalition/Confederation of Regions point, here's results on combined PC/COR/FCP votes.

PC gain from NDP
Hastings-Peterborough
Frontenac-Addington
Prince Edward-Lennox-South Hastings
Peterborough
Durham East
Durham-York
Halton North
Huron
Oxford
Middlesex
Lambton

PC gain from Lab
Quinte
Northumberland
Brampton South

Which gives: NDP 64, Lib 33, PC 33 (which is not a majority (but barely), but assuming 100% of both COR and FCP would transfer isn't realistic).

[MaxQue]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

I don't see the surprise of a sub-20 Liberal party having only one seat.

[MaxQue]

It's NDP 47, PC 33, Lib 14

[MaxQue]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

So, like the US Rust Belt?